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1941  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 17, 2015, 03:35:52 PM

Eh, hasn't worked that way. Case in point: today someone was asking me about Bitcoin. The amount of misinformation is staggering. His understanding was that bitcoins had values that change depending on when you got them (such that the first bitcoins are worth more than the ones we get today and their value goes down as time goes on). It ended up with a discussion that led to confusion and a "I don't know why anyone would trust something that has nothing backing it" statement.

Exactly, people feel unsafe when they see some currency that has nothing backing it. Backing is a means to provide confidence, it is just a promise, never need to have anything behind it, so it is better to have some powerful entity behind it to increase people's trust

Before 1971, you can take your USD to FED and exchange gold, but now it is only backed by government bond: A promise of giving you back same amount of USD plus some interest, many years later. If one day USD becomes useless, then this promise does not mean anything

So in fact all the currency is only backed by the merchants who accept it. If bitcoin have large scale of merchant acceptance, then it is backed as good as fiat money, or even better, due to not possible to be inflated by central banks. And you can see my use case have some real meaning in increasing bitcoin's merchant acceptance: If many people are purchasing and spending bitcoin at every possible place, then soon merchant will all include bitcoin as a payment alternative
1942  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 17, 2015, 03:12:42 PM

Your fundamental assumption is invalid. Maybe there are a few who will do this way, but most who transact in Bitcoin do so to spend them. Otherwise there no reason for them to do so.

Isn't making himself some money not a good enough reason ?  Wink

The net result to him will still be a loss. It is a small loss but a loss nevertheless. The one making the profit will be the one sitting out.

My use case just proved that the net result is positive, because some of the coins will be permanently disappear from the market, and that will reduce the supply, even the demand kept the same

If you bought 100 bitcoins and sold it back, you will take a small loss due to commission (suppose that everything else does not change). However, if you bought 200 bitcoins, and use 100 in your daily spending, thus permanently occupied them, you will reduce the coin supply on market by 100 bitcoin, that will raise the exchange rate permanently, so that your other 100 bitcoins can be sold at a profit FOR SURE

You can achieve the same result by putting aside 100 bitcoins and never use them, but then you lose 100 bitcoins, much worse than just spending them

In fact, if you look at fiat money's value, it is mainly decided by transaction demand. If people stop using USD as transaction medium, then there will be trillions of dollar supply on market and its value will plunge to almost zero, the effect is huge



1943  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Welcome To The Blockchain (The Bitcoin Song) by Toby + Decap on: March 17, 2015, 12:31:20 AM
Nice piece of work! 0.01b sent
1944  Economy / Economics / Re: Money is an imaginary concept, but humanity is enslaved by it on: March 16, 2015, 10:30:13 PM
Just remember some nice talk from Interstella:

"Because he knew how hard it would be to get people to work together to save the species,  instead of themselves or their children. Evolution has yet to transcend that simple barrier. We can care deeply, selflessly about those we know. But that empathy rarely extends beyond our line of sight."

Similarly, it is difficult to let people work together to change the world from fiat money's slavery, since their line of sight seldom extends beyond their salary and profit, not even mention fiat monetary system itself
1945  Economy / Economics / Re: Money is an imaginary concept, but humanity is enslaved by it on: March 16, 2015, 10:28:14 PM
What is the purpose of overcapacity? There is none, so it is profitable for governments that people should be employed to the full by any means (besides, employed people are less prone to social unrest). There is still much room for making the elites' lives better, even in the Caribbean. So no worry for the majority of humanity...

Overcapacity is a natural result of technology improvement, with each stage of technology improvement, large amount of people were thrown out of working force. Government has endless credit line so it does not matter if it is profitable or not
1946  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 16, 2015, 10:24:56 PM
Talk to outsiders about Bitcoin and its pricing. The most common thing you'll run into (other than "it's a scam") is complaining about how much a coin costs. Outsiders don't KNOW you can break it down. They don't have that comprehension. Therefore, again, what you or I know about Bitcoin means absolutely zero. Nothing. Nada. We're already in. It's OTHERS we care about bringing on-board, therefore we have to cater to THEM. That's how markets work.

I like hot pink cars that have no windshield, 6 wheels, no AC/heater, no seat belts and no headlights. So I go make them because I like them. Does that mean they're going to sell to others? Hell no. Why? Because not everything I like is something everyone else likes/agrees with. It's that simple.

Just because lots of people are afraid of it, I don't think advertising it will help, since that will make them more suspicious about it. The better way is to not tell them anything and just seeing that you making money out of it, then they will become curious and come to you to discuss bitcoin

1947  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 16, 2015, 10:20:32 PM

Your fundamental assumption is invalid. Maybe there are a few who will do this way, but most who transact in Bitcoin do so to spend them. Otherwise there no reason for them to do so.

Isn't making himself some money not a good enough reason ?  Wink
1948  Economy / Economics / Re: USD monetary base has increased 3.5x since 2006. Why no huge inflation? on: March 16, 2015, 09:54:11 PM
So what triggers spending those reserves?  It must be something... that is the point of a reserve.  That is when high inflation hits.

Suppose that you are a bank, you drove a credit bubble by loaning out 1 million dollar again and again and get 5 million dollars worth of  mortgage backed securities, and then housing bubble crashed, you took the chance to sell those securities to FED in exchange for real money 5 million dollars

Now you have 5x more money than before, will you release them to market and trigger a large hyper inflation and destroy your money's value? Of course not, you will let them trickle down to the whole society as slow as possible

The reason that there is no hyperinflation is because banks controls those money, hyperinflation only happens when majority of people  receive those money. If you keep majority of people poor, there will be no hyperinflation. Bankers can buy some castle or yacht or build some underwater hotel, but that won't increase the income of majority of people, so no inflation
The monetary base is kept in that so called reserve by the bank at the moment. As you mentioned , they will let the money trickle down to the whole society as slow as possible. So the ppl eventually will receive the printed money in hands. So I believe the inflation is not reflected in reality yet, but just the matter of sooner or later.

I am afraid this time people might never receive those printed money, since most of them is used to purchase the debt, and a debt will be paid back by almost equal amount of interest cost over decades, for each dollar they earn, they must pay 1 dollar interest, no money left
1949  Economy / Economics / Re: Money is an imaginary concept, but humanity is enslaved by it on: March 16, 2015, 09:44:15 PM
Lets just say if some people did not have money, they would be as useful as a wet tissue.

If I didn't have money, I could offer my skills to barter for other goods or services. This is what money fixes, it creates a field where everyone can play on.
The problem is when all your skills and what you have to offer gets automated by machines that are 100000% more efficient and cheaper than you.

This would make no sense on a larger scale. Machines exist so that humans could switch their activity to something more interesting/rewarding. If all men would one day become unemployed, then there would be no market for the goods machines produce. So it is a self-balancing system with a feedback loop...

The self-balancing mechanism only happens decades ago, when you still had lots of demand for the whole society and lack of production capacity. When most of the production can be done by a few companies, majority of people will be out of job and income

It is true that if all the other people are unemployed, then how to sell the products that robots made? No worry, government will borrow a bit to hand out as food stamps and social security and keep majority of people living a just OK life. While robot companies and banks took large amount of resource and build their heaven island somewhere in Caribbean


1950  Economy / Economics / Re: Money is an imaginary concept, but humanity is enslaved by it on: March 16, 2015, 06:00:46 PM
Lets just say if some people did not have money, they would be as useful as a wet tissue.

If I didn't have money, I could offer my skills to barter for other goods or services. This is what money fixes, it creates a field where everyone can play on.
The problem is when all your skills and what you have to offer gets automated by machines that are 100000% more efficient and cheaper than you.

And because human society is driven by fiat money, only those who can create large amount of fiat money can mass produce these robots and make majority of people lose their job, this is also a result of being fiat money's slave

Bitcoin does not change the ultimate result of machine replacing people. But it might change the centralized society like we have today, so that more people can afford a robot or two to do the work for them

1951  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is the exchange rate so boring now? on: March 16, 2015, 01:58:37 PM
There are about 5000 coins everyday appearing on market for sale, to maintain an exchange rate of $300, you would need $1.5 million net purchase everyday

1952  Other / Off-topic / Re: Complete the sentence... "I would sell all my Bitcoins if..." on: March 16, 2015, 01:48:09 PM
i would sell all of my bitcoin when one can buy me a house and a supermodel for a wife  Shocked

Believe me, supermodel is not suitable as a wife, you will be enslaved more than fiat money does Grin
1953  Economy / Speculation / Re: 100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020? on: March 16, 2015, 05:33:19 AM
It depends on how much of those excessive cash reserve will be used to pump the bitcoin price, now it is more than 3 trillion
1954  Economy / Economics / Re: Is deflation truly that bad for an economy? on: March 16, 2015, 01:40:50 AM
You have a collapse in aggregate demand which leads to deflation (that is, to decline in prices). How will this affect enterprise, negatively, positively, or there will be no influence at all (enterprise productivity remains the same)?

Take 1929 for example, the collapsing aggregate demand means most of the people have become poorer, that was a direct result of the earlier inflative monetary expansion: The economy bubble attracted many people to put their money in stocks and assets and greatly increased their spending

Could you please cite authoritative sources about the inflative monetary expansion back then. I'm singularly curious how this is possible under the Gold Standard Act (which set de facto gold standard in the U.S., and was canceled only in 1933, that is after the Great Depression had already begun) when the U.S. dollar had been freely redeemed for gold (1 dollar per 1.5046 grams of pure gold).

Monetary expansion comes mostly from fractional reserve banking, it does not need the increase in base money. Under a gold standard the base money is very stable, and if you look at base money before 2008, it was also very stable, grew a couple of percent per year

A credit bubble is created by lending out the same money again and again. You suddenly have lots of assets with high market price, then at certain stage, people will definitely want to cash out the gain, only find out that the real money that banks have is only a fraction of the assets total value, so the banks will face a bank run when large scale of cashing out happens
1955  Economy / Economics / Re: USD monetary base has increased 3.5x since 2006. Why no huge inflation? on: March 16, 2015, 01:11:25 AM
So what triggers spending those reserves?  It must be something... that is the point of a reserve.  That is when high inflation hits.

Suppose that you are a bank, you drove a credit bubble by loaning out 1 million dollar again and again and get 5 million dollars worth of  mortgage backed securities, and then housing bubble crashed, you took the chance to sell those securities to FED in exchange for real money 5 million dollars

Now you have 5x more money than before, will you release them to market and trigger a large hyper inflation and destroy your money's value? Of course not, you will let them trickle down to the whole society as slow as possible

The reason that there is no hyperinflation is because banks controls those money, hyperinflation only happens when majority of people  receive those money. If you keep majority of people poor, there will be no hyperinflation. Bankers can buy some castle or yacht or build some underwater hotel, but that won't increase the income of majority of people, so no inflation
1956  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 16, 2015, 12:55:22 AM
Why is it so hard to understand that you dont need to buy entire coins? You can buy fractions of a coin ffs. And why would people move to a coin when Bitcoin's got the strongest network on earth? all other coins will never be as secure.

I reallllllllly hope this post was just trolling. Otherwise I'd highly suggest you look into taking courses on business, marketing and psychological principles behind purchasing.

You're not marketing to me. You're not marketing to Theymos. You're not marketing to (insert name of someone that already knows about Bitcoin). You're marketing to people that have NO idea how things work, are computer illiterate, and just want things to "work." Learn how to run a business and then read my post again and you'll actually understand why it's true.

I'm just analyze some fact, which business school teacher and economy professor will never tell you, since they have never issued any money by themselves and can not look from a money creator's perspective

As a money creator, the most important thing is to maintain his money's credibility. An increase value of the currency is definitely going to help to gain higher credibility, while a constant decreasing of currencies value might ruin it

The use case I described here suits also on fiat money, if there is no billions of people use fiat money to do transactions, thus occupied most of those money, the demand for fiat money will be magnitudes lower
1957  Other / Off-topic / Re: Complete the sentence... "I would sell all my Bitcoins if..." on: March 16, 2015, 12:39:02 AM
I would sell all of my bitcoins if a quantum computer are cracking one private key per minute on the block chain, but actually I don't believe quantum computer can reach that kind of maturity in any meaningful time
1958  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 15, 2015, 05:30:59 AM
this method is about as easy as saying "If every bitcoiner convinces 10 people to become a bitcoiner, bitcoin will reach mass adoption, and the price will increase accordingly"

I'd even say my method is easier.

Of course convincing other people is also a way to raise the value, but that has some kind of suspicion of being a pyramid scheme. To make your own payment with bitcoin does not hurt anyone, and is overall positive for bitcoin ecosystem, I like this approach

You may have that suspicion but it wouldn't be true. Increasing the user rate by 10 fold would increase demand by potentially the same rate and given that supply is tightly controlled the price would have to come up to meet the demand. There's nothing "pyramid scheme" about it.

The great thing is that in both options the price can increase. One option is organic. The other option is manufactured, and borderline collusion, manipulation, "Central-bank like".

In fact in bitcoin monetary system, every miner is a central banker (since he creates money), so there will be more creative idea popping up every day by these central bankers. Before, people seldom have the possibility to look from a central banker's perspective. An average Joe will never care about how to protect national currency's exchange rate, while a bitcoin miner has every motivation to protect his investment
1959  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 15, 2015, 03:07:39 AM
this method is about as easy as saying "If every bitcoiner convinces 10 people to become a bitcoiner, bitcoin will reach mass adoption, and the price will increase accordingly"

I'd even say my method is easier.

Of course convincing other people is also a way to raise the value, but that has some kind of suspicion of being a pyramid scheme. To make your own payment with bitcoin does not hurt anyone, and is overall positive for bitcoin ecosystem, I like this approach
1960  Economy / Economics / Re: An easy way to make bitcoin worth millions of dollars on: March 15, 2015, 02:30:02 AM
...mail a check does not change the money supply since it never touches the real money, only changes banks account numbers, just like when you trade bitcoins in an exchange, only numbers in your account changes, bitcoin never moves until you withdraw

In your example you say that "Bob" and the vendor use an exchange to facilitate the transaction. In your explanation quoted here you say that on an exchange the bitcoin never moves (until you withdrawal), this seems to contradict your original theory.

If bitcoins disappear from the system as you theorize, this would already be happening as transactions occur. So the current price should reduced the impact of your reduced supply theory. There wouldn't be a way to manipulate the current price (since it already accounts for the bitcoin taken out of supply due to transactions) unless you coordinated a significantly higher than normal number of transactions, which I guess is what you're proposing? One more point, the increased number of transactions can't happen all at once, I mean even the exchange has to take the orders one by one. So after each transaction the price would increase and increase and people at the end of the coordinated transaction series would get screwed because they'd be paying the very inflated price.

Finally, coordinating price manipulation is what the Fed and central banks do (to a extent). You're falling victim to the same price and value manipulation schemes that this system is trying to correct or escape. Perhaps that's the scariest part of this talk. The fact that someone who's devoted to bitcoin can become so fixated on the price "going to the moon" that they'd propose price manipulation to do it.

True, if the coins never leave the exchange, for example paid directly from shoppers coinbase account to merchant's coinbase account, then there will be no impact for coin supply in market. But if the shopper and merchant use different exchanges, the coin will not be available during the transition phase. As soon as you do a bitcoin withdraw to your own wallet, that coin is occupied

And just like bitcoin, no one force you to do this, it purely depends on the users to decide if they will participate. I just realized this possibility recently. Before, I don't even know why should I exchange to bitcoin and consume, but now I at least have some valid motivation

Even if everyone participate, the effect can only be felt little by little, but the end result is clear: If some day everyone let his daily consumption pass through bitcoin network, then the exchange rate of bitcoin must rise many folds. Some hedge funds draw similar conclusion after they evaluated how much coins will be occupied when used in international money remittance



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