I'm guessing a good portion will want their settlement in Bitcoin (that's what I went for at least), but they are very careful to avoid any guarantees so far that this will even be possible:


So the extreme cases are:
  1) Everybody goes for refunds in bitcoin, in which case $13 million USD pushes the price up.
  2) Bitcoin refunds are not possible (which is more-likely because one stupid law is all that would take), in which case 200,000 BTC pushes the price down with a rebound when users buy back in with the refund cash.

I'm guessing in case 2 that they would try find a way to prevent a dip in the market like that (private auction instead of just selling at market value on exchanges).

The full balance data isn't given on the latest balance sheet:


However, we can still look at the best info we have and make some guesses:

For the the cash side from their document, they have $13,492,903 (1,615,957,277 JPY) but have expected debts of $72,911,955 (8,732,190,301 JPY), so we would only get about a fifth back if it were that alone.

However, we also have the bitcoin side.  They said they have about 202,159.34061488 BTC, and with a little digging they have approximately 750,000 BTC from traders.  So if they distribute funds out after two years, the BTC debt values would be measured at $542.70/BTC which puts the additional debt cash value at $407,000,000.  

Thus, it looks like the total debts to be distributed will be around $480 million if everybody files, and they have about $13.5 million plus about 200,000 BTC to pay for it.


Assuming the above, here's how it would play out if they kept the BTC as BTC, nothing more was retrieved or spent, and they cashed out the BTC to pay the debts at different closing prices:

$100/BTC  --> $43.5 million payout   |   11% cash back    |   435,000 BTC payout   |  49.1% BTC back
$250/BTC  --> $63.5 million payout   |   13% cash back    |   254,000 BTC payout   |  28.7% BTC back
$500/BTC  --> $113.5 million payout |    23.6% cash back |   227,000 BTC payout   |  25.6% BTC back
$1000/BTC --> $213.5 million payout |   44.5% cash back |   213,500 BTC payout   |  24.1% BTC back
$2000/BTC --> $413.5 million payout |   86.1% back        |   207,000 BTC payout   |  23.4% BTC back
$2500/BTC --> $513.5 million payout |   107.0% back       |   205,000 BTC payout   |  23.2% BTC back


Note:  I'm not sure if they'd payout cash percentages over 100%

I hope so, although after the losses and lawyers I'm hesitant to expect anything more than about a fifth of what we had.  

Speaking of which, we can finally file for our losses!

When gumball machines begin accepting dollar bills.

If you believe that, it's interesting to take a look at the math: 

At $1000/sucker, 1 sucker/minute, and 25 coins mined every 10 minutes, that puts the sucker-price at around $400 before the halving in 15 months.

But then we take it a step further and observer that the population has increased 5 times since that was first said in the mid 1800's, which brings the current sucker-birth-rate to 5 per minute, pushing the current sucker-price-point past the value of an ounce of gold.

But then it get's weird.  Because we were looking at the pre-sucker-price buyers assuming they were suckers.  But if the price went to $400 or $2000 or whatever your sucker-price calculation yields, the people who bought below that price were actually not the suckers because they get a positive return on their investment.  And so everything is flipped on its nose, and the real suckers are the ones who are late to the party and buy above sucker-price, driving the price even higher before a correction. 

But then are they the suckers?  Because if they hold during that time the sucker-birth-rate keeps doubling.  and doubling.  and doubling...  And Bitcoin production doesn't care.  It just keeps on halving.  And halving.  And halving.  and halving...

Thanks, it feels good to have my money back where my mouth is

After sitting back and watching for over a year, I'm back in.

When I told a friend who was burned heavier by Mt. Gox than I, he said "Yuck!  The idea makes me a bit sick to my stomach, but in a way I'm oddly proud of you."


So why am I back in?

For a $1,000 investment, I will forever be among the wealthiest 5 million Bitcoin owners in the world as long as I hold.

That may not sound like much, but by comparison, there are 12 million millionaires in the world.  Put another way I own more Bitcoin than 99.928% of the people of the world could ever theoretically own at one time.

Yes, Bitcoin may drop lower, but so might the buying power of a dollar

Yes, web interest has been constant for the last year, but it's holding at about 50% higher than the summer of 2013 when the price was $100-$150.  And yes, I know that 1.5x the old price would put us slightly below where we are currently at ($150-$225), but I'd rather buy now and have it drop there or even lower than wait for the price to drop to that range and never get back in.

Yes, the USD transaction volume has remained fairly constant for the last year, but the number of transactions per day has shown consistent growth.


Yes, it could drop to $0 and I just lost $1000 bucks, but at the same time I know there are others just like I have been:  Sitting, waiting, biding their time until something "clicks" and they are ready to get back in or buy in for the first time.  And as they come, so will the price.  And as the price comes, so will the interest.  And as the interest comes, hopefully the infrastructures will be battle-hardened enough to be able to handle it this time.  And if the infrastructures are able to handle it, we might just make it across The CHASM.  And I doubt that even the blackest bear would want to miss out on something as monumental as that...

Background
I was “goxed” out of 3.97221907 Bitcoins.  My friend Jason was “goxed” out of about 20+ Bitcoins.  Some users were “goxed” out of 100’s or even 1000’s of Bitcoins.  GoxCoin is an attempt to restore the honest ledger.

Idea
When it comes down to it, Bitcoin is a glorified ledger.  What does the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox have?  A ledger of who should own Bitcoins.  Thus, if we started an altcoin with a pre-initialized ledger to the values of Gox when it folded, users who had the possibility of getting nothing will now have GoxCoins.  Because users know how valuable they should be, they will not get rid of them very easily.  Thus, this will give GoxCoins immediate value.

The starting value of a GoxCoin address
At the end, the price of a Bitcoin on Mt. Gox was a fraction of the price of a Bitcoin on other exchanges, as many correctly foresaw that Gox was short on Bitcoins.  Thus, do we penalize these people for being smart and converting to cash and not reward them with coins?  No!  Thus, the starting value in goxCoins of each Mt. Gox user’s account will be set to the total value of each user’s account converted to Bitcoins based on the world price index at the time when Mt. Gox announced bankruptcy.

What do we need?
We need an anonymized ledger of the ending account values.  This requires cooperation from Mt. Gox.  We need 2 things from them: 

1) A way for users to specify the public address they would like their goxCoins deposited. 

• This can be as simple as allowing users to login and then a single field to collect the public address you want your goxCoin funds deposited into (same address protocol as the Bitcoin protocol)

2) The account ledger anonymized based on the provided addresses.

• This would consist of entries like:
  
  • Address:  <goxCoinAddress>
    
    • BTC:  4BTC
    • USD:  1234.56
    • EUR:   4321.09

3) A modified client to work with the GoxChain

What coin model do we use?
Bitcoin.  GoxCoins should be at least as rare as a Bitcoin, as that is what they initially were supposed to be equal to.  Thus, GoxCoins should be produced at approximately the same rate as bitcoins.  Thus, instead of starting the block reward at 50, we start it at 25 and set it to the same block number as bitcoin so that it halves approximately when Bitcoin does.  This will mean less GoxCoins in the end, but will keep the inflation rate the same as Bitcoin. 

How do we start?
1) The anonymized goxCoin ledger is published.
2) The format for the first block is finalized.  This will include at least the following information:

• The initial bitcoin balance of every address
• The initial fiat balance of every address
• The accepted fiat/btc exchange rates for all currencies at the time of bankruptcy for Mt Gox
• The starting goxCoin value of every address
  • Calculated based off of 1, 2, & 3
• The starting difficulty
  
  • A pre-agreed upon initial difficulty.
• The Bitcoin Block (GoxBlock) #
  • An agreed upon future block number to start the GoxCoin protocol with.
  • This will also be the block number of GoxCoin, which will cause them to be created at a similar rate to bitcoin.
• The Bitcoin Block’s Hash
  • The hash of the agreed upon block number

3) When the GoxBlock is found on the Bitcoin chain, miners will incorporate that block’s hash into the first block, and thus be able to start mining on the GoxCoin chain using the same protocol as the bitcoin chain.



This all spawned from a dream I had last night so it is still very rough.  Let me know if anyone is interested.

Good call.  EPiSKiNG did post that as well and I've included it below.  Still, this was back on July 18, so I have to at least hope that there was at least one successful transfer after that date.

I'm sick of looking through hundreds of pages to find how far Gox is behind on US withdrawals.  

If you receive a successful withdrawal or see a screenshot of one that was requested on a more recent date, please post:

• The screenshot of the Gox account with the successful transaction (text only withdrawal dates will be ignored).
• Anything you thought helped your transaction get processed (e.g. 5% acceleration fee, emails, phone calls w/ numbers, I am Mark's best friend, etc.).

If a subsequent post (not including this one) helps you get your cash, please consider tipping the poster and posting an update here with your success story so we can keep this up to date.

This is the latest one I could find:

Thanks for the replies.  I haven't added these to the poll yet as they seem to be suggestions for alternative names instead of abbreviations.  Let me know if I'm wrong and I'll add 'em.

I like it, but I'd shorten it to "rootCoin":  The square root of the "root" crypto.  

However, as it's not an abbreviation for "MilliBit" I have to leave it off this poll.  

The best I could come up with without resetting the poll was to post where the vote was at when I added "mBT" as an option.  That way, whoever wants can subtract those votes to see how it resonates with new voters.

I've added mBT as an option to the poll.

Yeah, even if "XBT" became the ISO standard today I would guess that "BTC" as the most commonly used abbreviation would still give "XBT" a run for its money, no pun intended.  Let me know if you want me to add "mXBT" to the poll, though.  

MBits work too.  I wouldn't mind having a couple of those either...  

Edit:  Actually, now that I think about it "kBit" would be a better fit.  However, I still wouldn't mind having Satoshi's 2 MBits

MilliBit was the community-accepted term for .001BTC back in 2011.  

However, most new people seeing the current abbreviation "mBTC" will pronounce it "milli-Bitcoin" or "Em-Bee-Tee-Cee", both of which are clunky.  

I think using the abbreviation "mBit" instead of "mBTC" will help "milliBit" catch on as the next base unit for Bitcoin.

Pros

• If you don't know how to pronounce it, you'll likely say "Em-bit" or "MilliBit", both of which are succinct and one of which is correct.
• Even if you haven't seen it before, it's easy to figure out (e.g. I'll give you 25mBits for 2 large stuffed-crust pepperoni & green olive pizzas).
• µBit and nBit work too
• Most people still talk of BTC prices in BTC, so there is still time to change.
• This term will help newcomers understand that bitcoins are divisible.

Cons

• BTC is currently abbreviated BTC
• "We've never done it this way before."

Change is slow.  However, if we've learned anything from HODL and the history of bitcoin, this doesn't have to apply to Bitcoiners.  

Your part:
The next time you mention a Bitcoin price, please consider quoting the amount in mBits.



Poll Updates:
I'm not going to reset the votes when an option is added.  Instead, I'll list the current votes when I add an option.

• mBT was added when the vote was:  mBTC=12, mBit=6, other=?

What is the status with Namecoin merged mining?  The last deposit to my wallet was December 11, and I checked another Eligius miner's account and saw that their last deposit was also that date, so it looks like deposits have been stopped for almost a month. 

Thanks!

I'd recommend switching to a different mining app.  I started with GUI miner too, but found that it needed to be reset daily or the memory consumption would grow out of hand and then completely lock up.  I switched to BFGMiner and that has been much more stable, which GUI miner uses behind the scenes and just throws a GUI (and apparently a memory leak ) on top of it.  Good luck!

Invest 30% NOW.  

If it gains, you'll get to ride it with at least a little coin, and you can rebalance as desired on the way up.  

If it falls, invest 10% more every 10% drop till you reach your target allocation %.  

Once at your target %, trade using your desired strategy, hopefully incorporating the "never sell all" lesson you've learned.  

For me, that means never go below 70%, buy with a % of your remaining cash when it drops a certain %, sell on the rebound to break even at a lower price, and rebalance on the way up for ATHs.  This makes volatility a great thing instead of something to be feared, and you still get your long-term benefits if it's just up up up.