Guys, it was just a psychological test. Why all of you do focus upon "vinyl vs. mp3" theme?
Why you do not focus on "bitcoin society vs. seti@home society growing rate"?

It is the kind of your thinking process: you focus on unrelevant themes, because they are more saturated emotionally. Vinil is a fetish itself, I know. Why we do not speak about girls? LOL))

Let's focus upon the main problem. Learn, how to control your thinking process from blur.

Great enthusiasm!

But 99.9% of people can not distinguish an mp3 @ 320 kbits/s quality from CDDA quality. For many genres of music, mp3 with such a rate is even more perfect than CDDA, because of mp3's psychoacoustics algorithm.

Young people do not accept vynil records, they simply go to youtube, itunes, vkontakte.ru, etc. So vynil records are rarities with volume, confirmed by few thousands 'old-men' world-wide.

What kind of service can you offer to young people, directly via BTC?

About SETI @ Home,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SETI@home#Statistics

Bitcoin society does provide the money profit to participants, but is too small and frozen by difficulty algorithm, int its childhood.

SETI @ Home does not provide anything - it spends electricity only - and see: "It is acknowledged by the Guinness World Records as the largest computation in history".

----
Actual data on total number of BTC Exchanges' participants - *coming soon*. There is very pessimistic light too, as with total number of miners (~3000).

Some mothematical model of miners is READY!

First, look @
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

Consider latest 2.5 months, we can see an exponential-like 'loop' in exponential axis 0Y:
a 'loop' (ROUGHLY) starts @ Mar 15, 2011 (700 000 Mhash/s), ends @ May 30, 2011 (3 500 000 MHash/s).

Note, there is also previous 'loop' of the same 'form' on the graph @ Dec 15 2010 - Feb 28 2011 (note, the same 2.5 months duration)

The latest 'loop' can be represented as a formula:

total_power (t, days, in MHash/s) = 250*(3162 + 2.5*10^ (0.0466*t)),
where
3162 - CONSTANT number of miners @ period Mar 15, 2011 - May 30, 2011 (our 'famous' ~ 10 000 miners)
250 MHash/s - typical power of GPU of single miner before upgrade @ Mar 15, 2011
250*2.5=625 MHash/s - typical power of GPU of single miner  after upgrade @ May 30, 2011, where we observe a tiny 'fall' of total power
(note, compare with Mar 05 2011)
0.0466 - is norm koefficient, that all miners has upgraded their GPU till May 30, 2011, from 250 MHash/s to 625 MHash/s

I assume all miners observe how does total power increases with time. They are 'race participants'. And becouse they did not understand MY bitcoin society's crash theorem, they want to obtain max. profit, so they were forced to upgrade their GPU and continue 'racing'.

So, miners' 'total intelligence' is a classic system with positive feedback.

See the MODEL graph plotted:


total_power (0 = Mar 15, 201) = 794328 MHash/s (log_10 = 5.9)
total_power (75 days = May 30, 2011) = 3162227 MHash/s (log_10 = 6.5)

compare with data ACTUALLY observed:
total_power (0 = Mar 15, 201) = 700000 Mhash/s
total_power (75 days = May 30, 2011) = 3500000 MHash/s.

ALMOST 90% MATCH.

==================

If the number of miners were growing exponentially itself, we PRIMARILY observe LINEAR curve in the exponetial axis (0Y).

In fact, since Dec 15 2010, @

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

WE DO NOT observe any growing LINEAR behaviour (in exponetial axis).

So number of miners = 3162 = const (t), since Mar 15, 2011 by evidence, and (may be) since Dec 15 2010 too.

If you still interested in, I may compute & model the Dec 15 2010 - Feb 28 2011 period too.

You may read thread:

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9487.msg140015#msg140015

- where I proof, bitcoin currency will not survive @ current rules.
Now, I am searching for data to confirm/disconfirm my proof. You may help me, if you research the following:

- how many traders there are on all BTC exchanges world-wide, as graph/function of time?
- how many miners there are on all BTC pools (&singles) world-wide, as graph/function of time?
- how many goods (kinds of goods, volumes of goods) sell directly for BTC world-wide, as graph/function of time?

Gold words. Now I see your are honest person in your deep thinking. I will try to do that. So I will not speak abouth this theme for some days..
-----------------
You may consider another problem - mining pools.

There is no formal 'cryptographic-trust' relationship between miner and pool. So pool's admin can manipulate with profits, powers, etc. But, because the difficulty is skyrocketing, single person can not mine effectively. So, pool's admins become the aces of bitcoin society. Now we can see 3-4 large pools. Their aces may make a cartel deal.

You see, pool's admins becomes the global corporations, exactly what we want to avoid in bitcoin system. So bitcoin currency is centolized even now, in earlier stages. With current difficulty algorithm (& bitcoin communication protocol) there is no chance to de-centrolize bitcoin in such thinking.

p.s. also, single miner may wait for *weeks* to generate a block. he can not see *continuous* (but small) profit grow, being single.

I speak about total volume of BTC being traded on all BTC exchanges world-wide, per day. Also you can study the number of different goods' kinds, being traded for BTC directly (just T-shirts & coffee caps & etc??).

But remember, computing BTC trade volume, or number of goods' kinds, sell for BTC, is not the goal itself. To estimate the number of miners & number of traders, as function of time is THE goal.

Of course, to estimate number of miners & traders is not trivial. Possible hints are given by number of exchanges being opened, per unit time. Or number of NEW kind of goods being selled *directly* for BTC, per unit time, weighted by their trade volumes in BTC.

MtGox being the largest exchange, may indicate the things quite accurately. So if I see average trade volume of BTC upon MtGox is not increasing exponentially (or ever increasing) for 1.6 months, it is good indicator of danger.

So, answer me:
- how many traders there are on all BTC exchanges world-wide, as graph/function of time?
- how many miners there are on all BTC pools (&singles) world-wide, as graph/function of time?
- how many goods (kinds of goods, volumes of goods) sell directly for BTC world-wide, as graph/function of time?

As soon as you compute these 3 functions/graphs, you see the confirmation, that current difficulty algorithm kills bitcoin society.

LMGTFY,

I see you are on the right way. Just remember you must start the algorithm change BEFORE all BTC exchanges start to fall.
I recommed you to verify my computations on people-time dependence in FEW days.

Now, it is night in Moscow. I go to sleep.. bye for a while..

SEVERE MISTAKE! You introduce the NEW THING, LOOK at the volume of NEW THING.
The volume of NEW THING MUST be great, for NEW THING to be THE CURRENCY.

And remember, number of traders depending on time is MORE important even than volume of NEW THING itself.
What if 10 000 traders sell/buy BTC each other, and volume of this process is 99% of total BTC volume.
And 100 000 newbies sell/buy BTC, in 1% volume. This is TYPICAL DANGER situation.

I may be wrong.. and therefore I ask you not to believe me but TO VERIFY MY COMPUTATIONS.
Just to RESEARCH the number of bitcoin members as the function of time.

If you compromise the bitcoin currency by your inaction, you compromise ANY unanonymized distributed digital currency, in eyes of rest of the world.

Very very roughly, this is correct. Sure you can say 'I know many people who had started to mine or to trade in last few months'.

Focus on the exact things what I say:
1. THE EXPONENTIAL GROW in NUMBER OF MEMBERS (in time scale) IS REQUIRED FOR ANY SOCIETY TO SURVIVE IN THE EARLIER STAGES OF IT's DEVELOPING.
2. 10 000 MINERS & TRADERS SPREAD WORLD-WIDE IS NOT THE SOCIETY FOR THE CURRENCY.
3. CURRENT DIFFICULTY ALGORITHM DOES NOT ALLOW FOR NUMBER OF MEMBERS TO GROW EXPONENTIALLY.
4. WE OBSERVE substituted data (network power = exp ( exp (t)), average mtgox trade volume = const (t~1.6months)), that freezing process has been already started.
5. In this DANGER situation we MUST RESEARCH the function = number of real (living) people in bitcoin society (t) more accurately.
6. According that research results, We should be ready to change DIFFICULTY ALGORITHM.

I see you CAN hypnotize newbies, cunning fox. LOL))

Let us reject difficulty from the view completely. Watch the another graph from the same site:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

This graph has EXPONENTIAL axis 0Y, so exponetial growing function itself will be LINEAR on this graph.
We see the power of bitcoin network, in GHash/s is:
1. nearly linear slice @ time period Oct 2010 - Dec 2010
2. EXPONENTIAL slice @ period Dec 2010 - Mar 2011
3. second EXPONENTIAL slice @ period Mar 2011 - Jun 2011

I.e. what we see since roughly April, 20, 2011 - EXPONENTIAL GROW IN EXPONETIAL AXIS!
What is it?!
GHash/s (t) = EXP ( EXP (t))
?!

Hint: One person has Core i7 computer with integrated GPU and 7 MHash/s, then he observes, difficulty is skyrocketing, and he buys ATI 5870x2 or 5970 GPU, and his hash rate skyrockets from 7 up to 700MHash/s. His mining power increases in 100 times in ONE day, but he stay the same ONE mining person.

==================

Let's research another function - number of people (miners & traders) being attracted into bitcoin society - as function of time.
Current difficulty algorithm can not allow the number of people attracted to grow exponentially, but this is required for survival on earlier stages of society developing. 10000 members spread world-wide is not the society for the currency. and I proof, they frozen without growing.

LOL)) I studied mathematical statictics in Moscow State University. Of course,
"Since only 19 blocks have been found at the new difficulty, the sample size is very small and leads to an inaccurate calculation"

But DID you compute EXACT numbers, some like 'std. deviation' (note, std. deviation itself can not be applied in this case),
HOW MUCH is calculation innacurate?
LOL. LOL. LOL))

19 blocks from 2000 is sufficient for rough estimates in THIS extrapolation case. Since extrapolation unlike interpolation, is rough by it's mathematical nature. Also, in the all recent difficulty switches, difficulty was risen by almost exactly TWICE factor. It was confirmed AFTER each switch had been made.

1. See, next difficulty estimation (even based on 19 blocks from 2000) is also nearly TWICE the (new) current difficulty, as it was nearly TWICE in the all recent difficulty switches.

2. Also, observing trade volume levels on mtgox during 1.6 months is sufficient for rough estimes, that number of exchange's traders (living people) is ALREADY FROZEN for 1.6 months.

======================
We need to reject all thinking, but to focus upon NUMBER of living PEOPLE as function of TIME, being ATTRACTED to bitcoin SOCIETY.
This is THE ONLY parameter, that bitcoin survival depends on.

Я думаю, что ты уже сам заметил - здесь что-то не так, что-то не вяжется.. В будущем кто будет заниматься генерацией и обслуживать платежи? Из-за ДЬЯВОЛЬСКОЙ сложности - только те у кого есть доступ к халявному электричеству. т.е. по сути - мелкие (и не очень) воришки. Система, в основе которой - воры.

Из генерации, конечно выходить, но чуть-чуть сложность упадет - тут же набегут. в среднем будет константное число участников. Но чтобы система выжила, она должна на начальных стадиях расти ЭКСПОНЕНЦИАЛЬНО по ЧИСЛУ УЧАСТНИКОВ. а здесь я вообще не вижу никакого роста ЧИСЛА участников - майнеров или трейдеров на бирже.

Мощности добывающей сети растут, но это может быть почти никак не связано с кол-вом майнеров. Простой пример - у чувака была встроенная видюха Core i7, комп выдавал 7 MHash/s, купил чувак ATI 5850x2 или 5970 - стал выдавать 700MHash/s. Его мощность генерации возросла в 100 раз! А чувак ОДИН остался.

 

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

========================

Difficulty   434883
Estimated   872663 in 2003 blks
Network total   6.867 Thash/s (WAS 4.8 Thash/s FEW DAYS AGO)

mtgox trade volume (average) = const for 1.6 months (does NOT rise)

========================

Do you still believe, number of miners (living PEOPLE) rised in proportion, from 4.8 Thash/s to 6.867 Thash/s in FEW days, i.e. multiplicator of 1.5 times in FEW days?!

Do you still believe, number of mtgox & other exchange's players (living PEOPLE) rised duing last 1.6 months?!

========================

It seems like CIA made an evil joke - remember 'INECPTION' movie with Leonardo DiCaprio.
Like CIA did embed the Bitcoin idea, being so nice from cryptographic point of view.
BUT with WRONG constant set, affecting difficulty algorithm.

Это что же получается. Смотрим на график сложности генерации блоков и общей мощности добывающей сети (в экспоненциальной шкале, значит сложность растущая экспоненциально отображается прямой линией):

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png

Когда сложность возрастет до небес - а это случится в ближайший месяц, ни добывать, ни обслуживать переводы, будучи peer-ами, в одиночку не получиться - придется подключаться к пулам.

Владельцы пулов, конечно, начисляют деньги, за участие в генерации. Но это начисление держится на честном слове. Пулов всего 3-4 сейчас есть крупных во всем мире.

Таким образом, владельцы пулов возьмут под контроль всю систему платежей bitcoin?

Нет, конечно, если пул обесчестит свое имя, хомячки-добытчики (в будущем - peers) перейдут в другой пул. Но сути дела это не меняет - из-за ЗВЕРИНОЙ сложности генерации, в одиночку ни добывать, ни участвовать в transaction fees - не получится.

А из генерации блоков никто не выйдет - компы-то работают себе и работают. Кушать не просят. А электро-энергию и своровать можно. В России - это вообще СВЯТОЕ.
 

BECAUSE NO ONE PERSON READS ME PEDANTICALLY, THIS IS MY LAST POST.

JUST WAIT FEW WEEKS TO OBSERVE THE START OF BITCOIN DECAY AND FEW MONTHS TILL 2012 TO OBSERVE THE END OF DECAY.

BYE.

If you read pedantically,

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9487.msg139923#msg139923

some premium person ask me to explain 'frozen people' concept.

I know Bitcoin is meant to be, I just proove WHY bitcoin society will decay too soon.

TRUE.

but count mumbers: 6 000 000 000 Earth citizen minus 10 000 bitcoin society members ARE LIKE ME, 'average Joe'.
The rest 10 000  bitcoin society members spread world-wide, ARE LIKE YOU.

WHY do you RAGE just because I advice to increase number of miners in the game from 10 000 to 1 000 000?

you CAN normalize mining profit to be VERY small, BUT roughly CONSTANT in time interval FEW years, or half a year, to allow 1 000 000 members to join the bitcoin society.

BUT you does close the society. I know WHY.