Aha. So you must have bought a lot of coins when it dropped from 20k to 15k? And then to 10k, you went all in? Bought even more at 8k? And now even at 6500? Haha, you're a WINNER !

There is. Centralization = power. What if THE central hub doesn't want your transaction? You're f*cked. Sure, you could open channels with all of your contacts but that's a huge amount of money you'd have to wire into the system + all other disadvantages. And what if THE hub goes down? The more centralized it is the more problems this brings for the system and the economy.

Very good point. Besides that I think in the end LN will be even MUCH more centralized. I mean where do you have your bank account currently? Most likely at the local bank of your country. But LN won't be bound by countries, you'll just have an 'account' (wallet) at the biggest hub world wide. The few biggest hub in the world will have 99% of the transactions going on. It almost can't be more centralized than that!

Hmm that's interesting. I remember all the fanfare and the trumpets when bitcoin got prime time attention because it was decentralized! Now it's getting centralized again and "nobody cares". I understand though, you only care about the quotes of your investment going up, fair enough.

Well see my post above. If I missed a pro of bitcoin, let me know and I'll add it. But when I sum it up like this it seems to me that banks+blockchain is the clear winner.

In fact, I wonder what are the differences between a centralized Lightning network and bankmodel that uses blockchain (like Ripple) to process interbank transactions?

pro's centralized LN:
* No risk of default of the bank AT ALL. If your hub defaults for some reason, that doesn't mean you lose your money like with traditional banks. The money stays yours.
* No monthly/yearly fixed fees
* You could open a direct channel with anyone you'd like, for example with Amazon, so you have really 0 routing fees.
* Bitcoin doesn't have any devaluation/inflation baked into its core, like most currencies have where central banks follow an inflation strategy.

pro's banking system + interbank blockchain:
* You get interest, you're not putting your money away against 0 interest
* No routing fees AT ALL. Although currently banks charge for international payments, I'm not sure how that would be when they'd switch to Ripple for example.
* You have free insurance for up to $100.000 (or more) in most countries against default, supplied by your government.
* Free insurance against getting hacked
* In case you make an error, the bank simply can undo the transaction, your money won't be gone like in the above.
* Support from your bank, someone you can call in case of a problem.
* access to ATM's to quickly convert into paper money.
* No fees when you deposit into your account, like you'd have when you'd deposit into your LN channel, where you'd pay on-chain fees, which could be really steep.
* You have 100% guarantee you can pay anyone you like who has a bank account. Although in a centralized LN this will also be very likely (but not 100%).
* Less volatility of your currency than bitcoin (well at least in 99.9% of the countries)
* You can pay people in countries like China, Morocco, Ecuador, etc, who have banned bitcoin.
* Currently WAY more users have a bank account than a bitcoin wallet. Theoretically this could change of course some day in the future but for now it's a huge advantage.
* No risk that quantum computing developments will render your bitcoins worthless at some point in the future.
* No risk that some other crypto will become more popular, decreasing your current crypto's value.

Did I miss anything?

Haha you're delusional. You see a car in front of you and insist it's a bicycle. I understand though, you're losing tons of money because of your lousy investment decisions, I would get grumpy too.

Either way, it's not all bad, in fact, I think this is actually the ONLY way that LN has a chance to survive. Much of the reasons I gave that LN would fail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2792933.0) are not (so) valid anymore in a centralized model. Still, I wonder how succesful it can be, since a lot of people like bitcoin for decentralization. If it's going to revolve around a few big banks again, I wonder how many people would still like it.

So like I predicted many times before, Lightning network equals centralization, as we can now see: https://lnmainnet.gaben.win/
There are almost no 'client-to-client' channels like the enthusiasts predicted, but it's mainly 'client-to-hub'.
It's so ironic, people wanted BTC for decentralization and then invent "Lightning Network" and it's becoming centralized again around big 'banks'.

Sooo... it seems that we have a verdict. EXACTLY like I predicted, LN = centralization, it's easy to see now: https://lnmainnet.gaben.win/ There are almost no 'client to client' channels, like the LN enthusiasts predicted. It's just client-to-hub. It's so ironic, people wanted Bitcoin for decentralization and now it's going to get centralized around 'banks' again.

I think $3000 is way too optimistic. The price will go below the price from a year ago, so that's around $700.

Haha this thread is funny, it seems nobody even understands what OP is saying. And all those 'it's impossible that bitcoin will go < $1000', oh I can't wait for it to happen. I think it will happen this year already so we don't have to wait too long.

Kwuckduck is a hero. Sure he was a bit early with his crash predictions but at least he saw bitcoin for what it was. Most of the longs out there still don't understand bitcoin AT ALL, they have 0 technical knowledge, barely understand what LN is and that's why they're now getting killed. They have some vague idea of how 'bitcoin will change the world' but it's much more a dream than that it has to do anything with reality. It's like building a helicopter and then expect to fly to Mars with it.

Wow, been a great investment since December. Sure, people who bought more than a year ago still have huge profits, but they will be underwater soon too. Just watch.

Finally somebody who understands it. I hope you shorted this crap in December, just like I did. All those longs here are only losing money. Sure, there are some who bought < $1000 but I'm confident they will be underwater later this year too. Bitcoin has proven to be a failure and LN is just a joke, like I outlined earlier: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2792933.0 I should update that list btw, found some new really stupid facts about LN. This thing is dying rapidly.

How is that a great strategy? The guy already lost almost $40.000 because everybody here told him to HODL. Now you're saying he should sell 1 btc so he at least gets $6800 back?

If I'd get a bitcoin for everytime someone said that 'it is impossible' for bitcoin to tank, I'd be richer than Bezos Anyway I think we'll see < $1000 before the end of the year. My best guess: we'll tank to just below $5000, rebound to $9000 and then dive to below $1000.

Sure just like 17.000 was a GREAT price to buy, $16.000 was even beter, $15.000 was a steal and now we're at $6800. You guys never learn. We'll see $2500 before august, you can make a screenshot of this post.

Can you explain why you think it will survive? I think it will not, because: btc failed as a payment system, it doesn't scale, LN is a joke, that will never work, less and less shops are offering it and the transactions are still declining, social media platforms are banning it and quite a few countries banned it already and it's doing a HORRIBLE job as a 'store of value'. I mean what's there to like? Why would anyone want to buy this crap? All those idiots here who are long 'because bitcoin always goes up' are getting KILLED.

So what if it was actually smart money who got out and shorted this crap and only the dumb newbies are still long... Did you ever consider that possibility?