I agree, it can't rise forever. The rises will taper off and we'll reach some rough equilibrium of hashrate.

It doesn't have to rise forever at 15% though. Only for the next 12 months,
or less if there's a couple of bigger leaps early on, or if your miner arrives at the end of Sept. instead of the beginning.

This time last year the network hashrate was 150TH/s. Today it's >600x that.
You don't think we can see a 30x rise over this coming year with all the manufacturers now on the scene?
 

6TH/s @ 2,500W for $5,000 (8.8 BTC) in September.

Assume delivery on September 1st. (optimistic)
Assume low electricity cost of 5c/kWh
Assume difficulty increases of 15% per period (conservative, we're currently 4 days from an estimated jump of 29%).

The result? A net loss of 0.7 BTC before turning it off in June 2015.

What am I missing here?

What an overblown sense of entitlement you have. Did your mother breastfeed you until puberty or something?

If you're so fucking smart, why don't you just follow your own advice and cash in on your brillaince?

so..... my phone died and I can't find where I wrote down the 2FA key... is there an account recovery process?

it appears tdminer has the winning bid at .15
I'm out on my phone right now but I'll PM you to make arrangements when I get home.

Someone asked for a screenshot of the status page - I only just noticed it didn't show up in my earlier post for some reason.

Europe should be no problem. Likely same rate as UK.
I can confirm if you tell me which country.

Shipping without PSU (to the U.S.) I can do for .12 instead of .16

Given that it's taken some time to iron out the above information (partly my fault - sorry).

I'M GOING TO EXTEND THE AUCTION TO END ON FRIDAY, 13:00 GMT

I should add - you will be responsible for escrow fees, if there are any.

I only have one unit for sale.

Contrary to what title says, the PSU is an FSP RAIDER 750. (I thought Antec for some reason)
http://www.fsplifestyle.com/product.php?LID=1&PSN=384

Starting Bid: .1 each

Bidding increment: .01

End Time: Wednesday 13:00 GMT.

Shipping: .16 by Japan Post EMS (3 days) to UK/US/Australia. Ask me for quotes to any other location and bid accordingly.

Escrow: This is the first time I'm running an auction here. I'm open to using the services of a trusted forum member for escrow.

This is one of the units from the first batch. Comes ready to go with extender cables spliced to the S1 (i.e. the PSU is not butchered).

I don't understand why people mess around with those things. Even if you overclock to 2.2GH/s with no issues you don't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting ROI. Maybe if the price was around $15 instead of $85...

Last week BITMAIN sold their last batch of S1s before the Chinese new year. Those went for 1.9BTC each from memory.

1.9BTC for 200GH/s (S1), or 10BTC for 200GH/s (U1)

If you want one as a collectors item go for it but it's a terrible deal as a mining investment, I can't believe they manage to sell at that price.

I purchased an S1 from the very first batch, I'm pretty sure I was entitled to a coupon for a discount off future purchases. I registered at bitmaintech using my bitcointalk ID but no coupon shows up. If someone from bitmain sees this can you apply the coupon to my account? I think 1.9 BTC is slightly steep but I may want to use it

10 @ 0.21

4.5BTC  ....

When I got my last unit it had a USD120 value written on the customs form. Description was "specialised calculation equipment" or something like that.

Fair enough!

mind if I ask what kind of difficulty increases you're assuming in your calc?.
I'm assuming 20%-40% rises (best case - worst case) up until around march, and then I think it'll spike massively due to KnC and ASICMINER next gen., so I'm not expecting to make anything beyond then.