I think you've misunderstood the nature of stabilisation, and the cause and effect on price.

It is not a real-time mechanism.

Yes, any coin would be the same, which is why the unrealistic expectations are so... Well... Unrealistic I guess.

The difference with this coin is the project itself, and the stated ideas and intentions of the team to build up an infrastructure around use of the coin. That's seems to be the most misunderstood part.

What has me most interested in this project is the direction its heading. I would wager that blockchain technology was not the original idea from the projects founders. Rather a private bank that pays dividends on savings and uses the most regulatory flexible type of fund available (an ETF) to enable international payments was always the original idea, maybe years ago. Recently public acceptance of blockchain technology explodes and it becomes the perfect mechanism to bolster the idea. That's the clever part. That's what I'm investing in.

When this is achieved (which is not just when the cards are live... More is required)... Then we will have something really cool and really worth something and thats when the coin used to facilitate it will be high value.

There is plenty of trolls around! This thread is an easy target.

We had too many inexperienced investors attracted by the short term strategy with high returns to launch the project. Of course it was never sustainable and the negative comments were completely right.

But what the trolls failed to acknowledge was that this was just the beginning. The development team has announced their intentions and we are starting to see some of it come to fruition. We are still far away from the real targets of the team.

At this time, the trolls are having much fun pointing out they were right. Of course they were! It was obvious we would hit this stage. I'm having fun daily making jokes with my close friends who have also invested in mnx... But we are laughing along with the project, not at it. It's always good to enjoy your adventures, enjoy the ride.

Any investment which makes or breaks your wealth is a bad, bad idea. You are gambling with your future and security. Having read the publications from the Dev team, experienced their responses to questions and heard some of their ideas... It's convinced me this will be a decent project to invest in. An investment is not something that returns in weeks or months... That's gambling. A reasonable expectation should be a few years.

Looking forward to the visa cards. That will be fun. Not looking forward to the rebranding so much... I'm not quite sure why this is necessary and rebranding always carries an implicit lack of confidence with it. But... It doesn't sound so bad yet that I plan to move on.

I'm most looking forward to late next year when I expect natural market forces will finally have enough clout to take effect.

Absolutely the wrong time for such a strategy I'm afraid. One look at the recent performance will turn away all but the most serious long term investor willing to invest the time to read all the publications in full.

No, the media drive should start Spring 2019 at the earliest. Late 2019 would be better when things have stabilised.

As mentioned in my earlier post, the release of the visa cards will not have a significant effect on the price of MNX.

The timing of their release is (I think unintentionally) going to coincide with the tail end of the first round of quarterly parkings. This will be fun to see... The natural market correction as sell pressure is reduced will cause the price to rise a little, and people will very incorrectly attribute this to the release of the visa cards. When the price dips again soon after there will be much alarm and I bet a weeks worth of posts claiming the project has failed.

Those people, myself included, who are excited about these cards and keen early adopters will no doubt already have sufficient holdings of MNX to fulfill the cards' minimum balance requirements. I would bet further that most of the 1000 odd people already fully signed up, ready to go, are holding back that reserve of minex from their long term parkings.

In short, most of the people who are ready to go already have the MNX required. We don't need to buy any more MNX when we get the card.

The next group of card users will be those already in knowledge of what's going on, already expressing interest and enthusiasm on the forums... Already holding decent amounts of MNX waiting to pull the trigger. These people also won't need to buy any significant amount to get up and running.

Now let's think about the spending action of the cards...

After users have dropped on a bit of MNX to price it works and we are all up and running... We want to spend some of our hard earned crypto right?

Well... The go-to coin for anything cross exchange is BTC. Everyone knows it and is familiar with it and has had to use it in some form.

If I want to flip any of my crypto holdings on to the card balance, I will use BTC directly. And so will anyone else. Why would I bother to FX it again in to MNX, pay trabsfer and exchange fees to do so, and hold a balance in a coin which is performing poorly (right now, see my earlier post). It would make far more sense to drop BTC straight on to the card instead.

The % incentive of charging and spending in mnx compared to btc is simply not enough right now to counter the (artificially) poor performing mnx and overheads required to do so. One day it will be, but right now it's certainly not.

So we won't have the big surge in buy volume required to raise a market price. Not yet.

An argument often put forward in previous discussions is that more people will learn of the cards, want to get involved, will require MNX to do so. But I don't think it will be so much. The requirements of a regular (blue) or gold card are not so significant in value.

And not everyone in the crypto community (which is still in its entirely a very small and niche market) will jump on board. Those that do will not be all at once. It will be naturally distributed over time... Which is exactly the behaviour we need on the sell side also but don't have.

So we will have a bit of a stabilising force which will be good. But it won't be a big enough force to drive the market. First we need to wait for the artificial mechanisms mentioned in my first post to dwindle and stop taking effect. The cards will help to reduce the decline, but not counter it.

It seems that we have a lot of people complaining about the low price, because of unrealistic expectations.

In order to understand what's going on, let's detach ourselves emotionally for just a few minutes and analyse what's going on...

Firstly, we must understand that the parking mechanism at its current interest rates is unsustainable. Let's explain this further...

The previous, ridiculously high, interest rates (they were up to 15% a month!) was to encourage earky adoption. Which they did very successfully. But if you think about it objectively it is obvious that it could not continue long term. I'm surprised they continued as long as they did. (full disclosure, I also took advantage of them for a nice little earner).

Funds/cryoto/assets/cash can not simply be magic'ed out of think air. There was a reserve fund put aside to pay this high interest.

Those high rates served their purpose. They generated the rapid enthusiasm required to get the coin trading and liquid. Then the rates were lowered to (still high) levels. At that time the team obviously had the private Bank and visa card products nearing completion. In retrospect it was essential to lower the rates at that time and the correct decision. There is no way the reserve interest fund would have been able to cover the super high rates and cope with a surge in interest due to visa cards. The current rates can last a bit longer, but are still ridiculously high. They will have to be lowered again some time in the future because they are still far too high to sustain long term. Again, be reminded that the asset/funds required to pay the interest has to come from somewhere.

For the record, on a regular financial investment I would regard a promised return of 5% to 10% per year an adequate return on investment. 15% per year would make me very interested but cautious... It's a bit too good to be true. 20% would make me very suspicious and anything quoting a higher expected return than that I would not even entertain and dismiss.

Please can the forum take heed of this. Do not be unrealistic with your expectations.

So I fully expect the rates to be lowered to a maximum of 10% per year in the future. This is still very generous! Thankfully, some of the details mentioned by the team reveal how this will be funded. As was stated in the beginning, interest was paid from a reserve stock of coins. Fees from block chain transfers helps a little bit, but certainly will not be sufficient on their own. So how will they manage to keep paying a generous interest of 5 to 10% a year in the future? Well, it was revealed that the main mechanism for minexpay will be an ETF. This should reassure us immensely. A big concern for the future was how the team would maintain its promise of providing any parking interest at all.
(if you are not familiar with ETFs, please Google and read up on how they work and the regulatory requirements for fund managers and investors. Its a very clever idea by the team to use one of the most flexible financial investment mechanisms available with the least regulatory requirements to enable the use of global payments and provide a return at the same time to fund their project).

If you've had the patience to stick with me this far, we've explained why the interest rates were lowered and why they absolutely must be lowered again. Only if the rates are not lowered in the future will I doubt the sincerity of the project.

So now we understand that part, we can start to analyse why the price is falling so much. The short answer is some unrealistic expectations and jumping ship. The longer explanation might provide some reassurance to those of you on the fence...

When the first rate drop was announced, we very clearly had the get-rich-quick crowd drop off. That's fine, it was their strategy all along. No experienced investor seriously expected those ridiculous launch payouts to continue.

By now everyone here should be familiar with the basic forces on a market. If there are more people trying to buy something than there are selling... It drives the price up. There is more buy demand than there is availability. Conversely if there are more people trying to sell something than there are interested buyers... The price goes down. There is over-availability and little demand for it.

This glut of sell volume allowed the low-ball buy orders to start executing some of the market sells... And the price starts to dip down. This dip in price triggered the next vhigh volume of selling... Those people who base their value on their immediate portfolio. This type of investor is long term, but has no particular allegiance or interest in any single product. This is how the majority of financial investors operate across all asset classes. They have a portfolio of assets (stocks, currencies, real estate) and regard the value of the portfolio as their worth. If any member of that portfolio is losing money, sell it and buy something rising in value instead.

So now we have a bit of a snowball effect causing a rapid drop in price. This is the initial 'crash' we had around May/June. (Google the definition of a crash, while there is no single numerical definition it's usually regarded as a significant drop in value of several days). This no doubt triggered a bit more panic selling.

This is no different to any individual financial instrument crash in history. Or indeed, any market crash in history.

So now the burning question... What happens next? Well... Here is where it gets really interesting. Because of the huge volume of sell orders we have going on, the price is staying low and continuing to decline. The massive amounts of parking interest being accumulated is not helping this. Right now, we are in the month period where all of the first quarterly parkings are completing. We have some people selling the interest to claw back some money invested... And others dumping everything and jumping ship now that they got their big quarterly payout. While I regard both of these as a little bit short sighted, it's not fair to belittle then completely... It is their right to do so. What's happening in the background is some people are taking advantage of this.

Another factor influencing the low price is the small number of exchanges. The market as a whole is not yet liquid enough to cope with a large dumping of supply. This is very very obvious where daily we can see huge differences in value between our 3 or 4 exchanges. A dump on one will cause the price to drop at that exchange and for up to a few hours there can be a price difference of 5 to 10% with other exchanges! Certainly we are dealing with a fledging market.

The good news, for the brave, is that this certainly will not continue long term. Natural market forces will even this out... When we finally get to a time when the regular market mechanisms can take effect and correct things. Then, and only then, will the price climb back up.

So what are these market forces? Well... Firstly we need to wait until we are live on a few more exchanges. Right now we just don't have the liquidity. But it will come, when there are a few more exchanges which will distribute the market out a bit more. Right now, any single action on one exchange is having too big an impact.

Secondly, we must wait until the sell volume is more evenly distributed across the whole year. Starting late September the impact from the first round of quarterly parkings will have finished and there will be a small rise in price. Around late December to early Jan there will be the second round of quarterly parkings expiring and an over-supply of sell again. The price will dip. But, it won't be quite so severe as the current round. Give it another few rounds... And by summer 2019 peoples behaviour will be fragmented enough it won't all coincide in the same few short weeks.

Thirdly, the interest rates must be lowered further. I bet this is not what you want to hear... But if you read and understand what I've written you'll see it's essential to stabilise supply.

Now... This all sounds very hypothetical and know-it-all. I get that. But, very fortunately we have had a totally unforseen and unrelated incident that supports what I have written. A short time ago, livecoin made an error in the system which halted the deposit and withdrawal of MNX in to their exchange. What was the effect? The effect was, for a short time, the over supply was suspended. The low-ball market orders completed and trading continued, with good volume... And the price gently but steadily rose, as it should and always would.

As soon as livecoin resumed deposits and withdrawals a high volume of sell returned and we have the same snowball effect.

The price of minex is artificially low because of the higher volume of sell compared to buy. Maybe now you can see why the interest being lowered in the future will be a very good thing. But not a good thing on its own of course. More exchanges, more marketing to raise enthusiasm with new investors and waiting for the cyclical behaviour of monthly/quarterly parkings to become evenly distributed. Then the artificial mechanisms suppressing the price will be replaced by regular market behaviour.

What we have here is bitcoin style surge in value with inexperienced get rich quick investors... Then a crash... Then a natural market correction. Its just that we have a few more factors in play here and the market correction is some time away yet.

Finally there is one more point to mention... Please please do not be too disappointed in a few weeks when the release of the visa cards does not have any significant effect on the price. It won't. If you are hoping it will and relying on it you will be very disappointed and there will no doubt be much moaning.

The visa cards and the banking mechanism thought up to support them are a very very clever idea and I'm super excited to start using the card. But I'm under no illusion that it's going to cause a significant rise in value of minex. I've written a lot in this post already... So I'll do a second post about this part and try to explain my reasonings.

Thank you Racquemis1!  The new site looks more polished and the additional stats saves me having to calculate my performance every time.

If I may offer a suggestion, in your next upgrade perhaps include an option to minimise the left menu bar?  Or shrink it down to icons only without text to give some more space for individual miner statistics.  Just an idea.

Keep up the good work!

I think today is just the beginning of a 2~4 week dumping period.  As suggested in the previous few days, we are hitting the dates where those first quarterly parkings are maturing and people will be attempting to claw back some losses by selling the interest or perhaps exiting all together.  

This is clearly creating a surge in supply.  Look at the daily volumes on both Exmo and Livecoin.

Whether this has induced some panic selling or not is not immediately clear... we will be able to tell that more clearly after a few days to a week.: "Don't fight the tape" as anyone familiar with market trends will know.

Regardless of panic selling, there will only ever be one outcome when supply is suddenly increased... which is, by any application of standard analysis, a crash.

I reiterate once more, as a concerned investor, that the Minex team absolutely must change their strategy.  Parking Interest proved to be a very good stabiliser during a bear market... but the rate change in May has proved to be too drastic.

If we want to use the same parking mechanism to regain the value of MNX, the following should happen;
1) rates should be returned to around half of what they where pre-May
2) quarterly and longer rates should be immediately decommissioned to discourage large periodical dumping
3) rates should then be gradually decreased, starting as soon as the price recovers to around $10.  This must be gradual to avoid a second run of panic sells like the late April/early May period

Such a strategy will not come cheap.  But it is clear now that the pace of change was too rapid for a market with such low liquidity to manage.

If we don't want to use the parking mechanism for such an adjustment, there must be some mechanism to counteract a cycle of holding and dumping.  This is currently the biggest weakness of the project.

While the price stays above $2 USD, there is still a chance to retain enough interest in MNX for a recovery.  Very soon after it dips below that though... there will be very little that can be done.  The market cap will be too low to make the coin of interest to casual investors, liquidity will fall to almost zero and the MNX market will collapse.  I would put that timeframe at the third quarter after falling to $2, or if we fall too rapidly perhaps the second quarter after hitting $1.

The current strategy is producing a disparity in the market, which can not be absorbed with such low liquidity across just a few exchanges.  More exchanges would help... but it needs to be 3x to 4x the current number.  There is not enough time to implement this, so we should not quote this or hold on to this as a recovery method.

Yes, this is a good point.  If enough cards go in to circulation, and are kept functional via the minimum balance requirements, there will be an impact.

Your numbers are very optimistic!  I'm not expecting such a large user base.  lets see in the coming months how many cards get reported. If we have even a quarter of your numbers we will be in a much stronger position.

Thank you for replying!

Of course, we understand the team can not disclose all future strategies. The crypto world is still very small and niche. I fully expect new ideas and features released by the team to be copied within months or weeks by competitors.

I remain concerned for the future of the project, and the next few weeks will tell if my prediction of the market will be correct or not.  If it does fall as suggested, it will not be disastrous yet and would be recoverable.

Very keen to hear of your new features to encourage a more liquid market! Will be watching the reports and blog as usual.

I'm pleased that some people have responded to my posts with some suggestions and arguments. I'd really like to debate this some more.

For the record, I have a fairly decent amount of MNX. I am pleased with the reporting from the Minex Team and very interested in the project. It's absolutely not my intention to troll or attempt to disrupt the community.

I hope my posts come across as constructively critical. The whole ecosystem being built up by the team may fail for the worst reason... because MNX can't hold it's market value.

I think we are still waiting to see the impact of the VISA cards. There were some keen early adopters, myself included. Again for the record, I have passed my KYC checks and eagerly await my card delivery.

But surprisingly to me... enthusiasm for the cards is much lower than I was expecting. I base this on the published number of attempted KYC submissions (475). I hope that the thousands of other unpaid registrations are waiting to see the first few successful transactions reported and jump on board.

Analysing things more has led me to the conclusion that the strategies used to kick start this project may well cause its demise if not addressed within the next couple of quarters.
(See my previous posts for my reasoning)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1847292.msg43842794#msg43842794
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1847292.msg43860515#msg43860515
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1847292.msg43861585#msg43861585


Can someone from the Minex team offer any feedback on this? Have you any strategies planned to encourage more buy-volume in the market?

What we need is more volume, other than the periodical dumping of parking interest.

I expect the coming weeks might be particularly bad for MNX price as the first quarterly parkings are due to mature.

This is somewhat true... Using the standard and gold cards as a reference... Is the 0.5% difference for charging and 1% difference in spending more than the % lost in purchasing MNX? An educated hedge would look at the falling price of MNX and deem it safer to transfer in BTC. In the last 3 months, it would hold far more value than MNX.

Again, I see no strong pressure to buy MNX

The parking rates were much higher before... around 15% a month... to kick start the project.

Even the current rates are remarkably high and not sustainable long-term.

A rates increase will be no good for anything other than a short term spike and subsequent crash.  The interest has to come from somewhere.  Who will pay for it?

can you explain why you think so?

A quick look at MinexExplorer will show you that only ~600 wallets hold more than 500 coins.  You only need to have 250 coins to make the top 1000.

Only ~900 people have completed card orders and only 53% of these have started the KYC process with just 42% completing it.

We have a relatively low number of people holding and hoarding... with an equally low number of people dumping when parking matures.  Due to the size of the sell orders being dumped at once, we get very short volume spikes.

The card will not make any sudden impact on the market as they do not demand more buying.  In the worst case scenario... if enthusiasm for the cards does not rapidly and suddenly surge... usage of the few cards in circulation will only generate more selling = price falling further.

Random guessing on the future price is not productive.

Unsupported statements such as "the cards will help the price" are equally as unproductive.

See my post a page back where I justify my prediction with some reasonings. I fully understand that my reasonings may be flawed, and would really appreciate a long discussion with many of you about why you analyse the situation differently.

To help this project, secure our investments and enable us to offer constructive suggestions to the Minex team, let's debate our predictions, with supporting reasoning and help to think of some mechanisms to encourage market liquidity and volume.

The minex team may well reject the ideas with their own conflicting analysis... Which would also be great... It means we have explored multiple strategies with them and they've chosen the strongest.

There's really no need for any more "this project has great potential!" one-liners. We don't need so many 'we're so great' self congratulations. Minor delays aside, the Minex team are doing a great job and we all know it. Perhaps some targets were ambitious and everyone learned from that. We are all pleased with their dedication and reporting. Enough on that.

If you refer back to my long post a page back... I've concluded that the strategies that gave this project such a great kick-start and now starting to hinder it severely... To the point where this same strategies may suck enough liquidity out of the market to crash it irreversibly.

Does anyone have an alternative analysis they would care to share?

Moreover, simplifying the process of acquiring a card can be done so with a one-click bitcoin transaction. There is no need to involve instabuy, unfamiliar exchanges or unfamiliar MNX desktop or Web wallets in the process.

New adopters would be far more comfortable with an option to register and purchase their first card via a single bitcoin transaction, which you internally exchange to MNX and do all the necessaries. After all, when creating a minexpay account the user will assigned a MNX wallet anyway for transactions.

Later these same new adopters will learn of minexbank and instabuy, be more comfortable with MNX and more willing to invest the effort required to use.

So aside from forcing topups of the card to internally exchange to and from MNX (and help drive the market), simplifying the initial access to the project will help adoption.

Bit disappointed about the falling price of MNX. Many of the speculators sold off their holdings when the rate change was announced back in May. Now the real believers in the project are holding on to their coins and presumably accumulating interest. Soon we will be hitting the first quarter after May and I'm guessing there will be more dumping when interest comes in. The falling price will encourage the less confident to sell off and move on, lowering the price further. The remainder will take advantage of the cheap price to snap up coins cheap, with little competition so it's a buyer's market.  Only the cheap orders will be filled, lowering the price further encouraging more dumping at low prices.  Those buyers then hold on to their coins accumulating more interest. Every 3 to 4 months the cycle will repeat, although less severely each time.

Throughout all of this there is little competition for buying so no mechanism to drive the price up.

When 1000 or so card orders fully completed in September ship, the recipients will be those with fairly decent sized holdings and no immediate need to purchase more coins to fulfill the minimum reserve balance = no pressure for buying and no market force on the price.

As the card is proven to work more of the orders will be fully completed, but likely by those who are already invested but cautiously waiting to see others try first.  As these people complete their orders they will likely have the funds already to fulfill the minimum requirements (especially as the majority of pre-orders are standard or gold which have quite low MNX requirements).

Active users of the cards have no need to purchase MNX to continue using it. They can continue to accumulate interest and spend that for free.  Or possibly not spend at all.  After all, why spend when you can keep on accumulating?

Finally people new to the project will hear of the working cards and want to try.  There will be a small increase in buying as people need the small amount of MNX required to get a standard or gold card up and running.  But once they have it there is no need for MNX any more. They will simply top up the card with good old reliable bitcoin, the trusted go-to coin well known to them.

Will MNX then be a victim of its own strategy?  While it is a very attractive project for crypto holders to spend crypto via the VISA card, there is no pressure to use MNX in the process, other then acquiring the very small amount required to set the card up.

In short, I see no market force putting competition on buy orders.

In order to raise the value of MNX the team can do one of two things:

1) increase the interest rates which will encourage more buying, but this is not sustainable and will be undone as soon as rates are reverted.

2) force the purchasing of MNX through use of the card. Any topups of the card in bitcoin will first exchange the bitcoin for MNX at market rates, and then be exchanged to USD for purchasing of the ETF.

This will generate a steady competition on buy orders, maintain liquidity and volume, raising and holding the value of MNX

Hi

I keep getting "Bus error".  I get the same error if I run with all available GPUs or just with a single one.  I have tried all the available options but always get the same error.


I read through the entire history and see memory mentioned a few times.  Is that related?

Can you point me in the right direction to diagnose whats wrong?

Thanks