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21  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Something Awful likes Bitcoin Weekly comics. on: July 09, 2011, 10:50:54 PM
this thread and this comment from Jalum in another thread https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=27368.msg345049#msg345049
Quote
I only have to save one bitcoiner for it all to be worthwhile.

Rawdog said that too in one of his videos Smiley
22  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin version 0.3.24 released on: July 09, 2011, 10:33:35 PM
Please make this thread sticky until the next version and keep repeating that Smiley
There is so much traffic now many people might not see this thread.
23  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is the Bitcoin falling ? DDOS breaks almost every major Pool on: July 09, 2011, 09:47:02 PM
I am talking about the worst case scenario. Let us say three of the major pools have been taken over and hacked! then what! a faulty blocks can be introduced!

not just slowing the total network computation power due to DDoS. But the whole thing can be wiped out!

That's not how it works, thankfully. You can grab all of the coin creation and prevent transactions from going through (until you get nuked from orbit), but you can't reverse most of the transactions (exponentially more difficult the further you want to go back) or steal people's balances because you don't have their private keys to sign transactions with. For other things you could do you also need control of the majority of the clients, which controlling all the pools in the world will not help with.
24  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Camp BX - Affiliate Program Announcement on: July 09, 2011, 09:35:08 PM
The European greeting could be "hi-de-hi campers!" Wink
25  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: TradeHill - AUD market is now live. on: July 09, 2011, 09:12:29 PM
It's not actually a troll (not entirely) - if TradeHill has a delegate in Australia and is violating australian banking/securities (though I don't see the securities thing being an issue), or is not charging GST when they should be (GST wasn't even around when I left Australia so I honestly have no idea) then it really doesn't matter if TradeHill are in Chile or not... someone's going to get fucked over it.

True, but the wording was obviously meant to inspire FUD. Also, 'they' implied Tradehill, which may not be the case, but rather the entity handling it for them. Then again, you never know these days, when the secret service nabs you for committing an art project..
26  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bitcoin! on: July 09, 2011, 09:05:53 PM
Well, nescio, let's make it happen. I won't guess how many you have but I'll buy a bunch at $11. That should help bring the price down. Just doing my part to help the bitcoin economy.

I never said the price needs to be actively manipulated down either (and you would have to be a fool to sell 25% below current price). Just don't engage in televangelist drive type pricing mania. Buy what you need, don't manipulate the market, it should settle to normal levels by itself (remember the inflation is still fairly high this and next year). Once it does, exchange rate will increase gradually.

Better ways to help the economy:

a) if you're a merchant, accept Bitcoin
b) ask the merchants you deal with to accept Bitcoin
c) try to enlighten people (particularly traders) about the dangers of a disconnect between economy size and exchange rate
d) tell everyone else about Bitcoin
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Skeptical of the skeptics... on: July 09, 2011, 08:45:43 PM
You and your "OMG the USD is dooooomed!!!" brethren are just spreading FUD based on wishful thinking and a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics.

I don't think there are a lot of people wishing for the complete and utter demise of the USD as that will have global consequences. Nevertheless, it's a real possibility the way things are going.

Quote from: Giraffe.BC
And probably more than a little greed, as I'm guessing many of you bought gold at absurdly high prices in anticipation of a collapse that's never coming.

You might be right on the second part, a collapse can be prevented by what they are trying to do right now. Raise the debt ceiling and socialize the debt. (Most) US citizens will earn less and less and move towards Chinese wages/standard of living ($2000 a year or something, last I heard). This basically means a reinstatement of feudalism, citizens will work for food and a place to live with little chance of saving anything, just like the Chinese factory wage slaves do now. It's possible, and seemingly in progress already, but obviously not exactly desirable.

Investing in gold will not prevent any of that BTW, there will be plenty of laws to divest you eventually. Maybe there is a chance if you settle elsewhere, provided they don't manage to do the same there. Learn Chinese possibly Smiley
28  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Introducing Bitcoin for Android on: July 09, 2011, 12:49:52 AM
Does the app allow you to select transaction fee? And what about wallet encryption?
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bitcoin! on: July 09, 2011, 12:46:07 AM
We're just waiting for you and Lardy to sell off the rest of your coins Nescio...

For the record, I never said anything about the price going down. I said plenty (in other threads) about the price needing to follow the economy, meaning it should go down, for a healthy Bitcoin future.

Keep guessing how much coins I hold.
30  Other / Off-topic / Re: Zoographical list of troll types. on: July 09, 2011, 12:39:52 AM
Journo troll: writes hit piece from premade conlusion and headline to make Bitcoin look bad (not posting on this forum though)
31  Other / Off-topic / Re: Zoographical list of troll types. on: July 09, 2011, 12:04:19 AM
Oh, and the obligatory rick roll troll, of course.

Not to mention the bump troll, teehee.
32  Other / Off-topic / Re: Zoographical list of troll types. on: July 09, 2011, 12:02:58 AM
Guess how popular this is going to be Smiley You forgot:

trader troll: it's only going up up up baby! BUY BUY BUY (so I can make my cash out target)
statistics troll: technical analysis of this tea leaf pattern predicts it's going up/down/sideways/nuclear!
miner troll: another 400 gamers stopped playing Farmville, and everybody knows price follows difficulty!
early adopter troll: we are the new elite my friends, I predict BTC to go to $10,000 by next week!
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bitcoin! on: July 08, 2011, 11:24:24 PM
LOL, the last hour the market has gone completely flat, is everyone holding their breath or something? Smiley
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: Skeptical of the skeptics... on: July 08, 2011, 11:14:26 PM
You just can't argue with nitwits like this. It's competition between rival speculators that produces stability. Buying low and selling high keeps the price in the middle.

You mean like the 35% swing on tuesday/wednesday? Yeah, it's working fantastic Sherlock.

There's no short-selling options (puts) to cover. Gotta have the tools to do the job, Watson.

Oh wait, so you actually concede it's not working right now? Impeccable logic.
35  Economy / Speculation / Re: Skeptical of the skeptics... on: July 08, 2011, 04:37:01 AM
You just can't argue with nitwits like this. It's competition between rival speculators that produces stability. Buying low and selling high keeps the price in the middle.

You mean like the 35% swing on tuesday/wednesday? Yeah, it's working fantastic Sherlock.
36  Economy / Speculation / Re: Skeptical of the skeptics... on: July 08, 2011, 03:41:05 AM
Speculators make markets MORE stable, not less. Or perhaps I should rephrase that - they make markets more rational, because when a speculator sees a price he deems "irrational" he can take a financial position in the other direction and profit if he's correct. This incentive encourages people to critically asses the market in question. A market in which speculation was difficult would be a market I'd be less confident in.

Then you are naive because a speculator will aim to maximize profit, not 'be rational'. That means striving to control the market to the detriment of all others, eliminate competitors etc. 'People' like Goldman Sachs have been expertly subverting the market for quite a while now (starting with some deregulation in the Reagen era), it's anything but rational now. The result is that the economy and the government are taken financially hostage, if they don't cooperate with the robber barons they simply threaten to let the whole thing collapse.

Otherwise I agree with the rest of your points Smiley The US Dollar is dead and buried and quantitative easing is just the last round of wealth redistribution. There are some long term economic problems with the Bitcoin model that I have no answer for, but it's a helluva lot better than the untouchable vampires controlling the economy now.

BTW, the fundamental problem is uncontrolled greed in human nature IMHO, not decentralization.
37  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Bitcoin press hits, notable sources on: July 08, 2011, 03:05:34 AM
NY based Lawyer has never heard of prior use:
http://idle.slashdot.org/story/11/07/07/0326213/Lawyer-Attempts-To-Trademark-Bitcoin
38  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bitcoin! on: July 08, 2011, 02:40:57 AM
@bitcoinBull: you know the exchange rate does not reflect todays relevance but the expected value for time frames of maybe even years. so even if the market is as small as 5 million per year as of now with people speculating on a x15 growth in business within one year anticipating next years real value they are quite conservative with 15$/BTC as this would mean all BTC circulating and not like it is today where the exchanges have trade volumes of 100k/day and 90% being used as a store of value.

I guess you replied to me. I'm not saying the exchange rate needs to invariably reflect the current economy size (though it would be great if it did that), I'm saying it needs to keep within a safe distance to it, or you end up with a bubble that is far more likely to burst and destroy value for everyone. Also, as a counterweight I would pose the extreme risk in using Bitcoin as a store of value right now. The bankster thugs are only slowly waking up to this, when they get going tough times are ahead. That has to depress exchange rate and consequently either you are supremely confident in Bitcoin surviving in its current form so your investment is retained many years from now, or you're a fool. Or a speculator with an exit strategy that in his own words doesn't care what happens to the system itself, as long as he is covered.
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bitcoin! on: July 08, 2011, 02:30:19 AM
Of course, making price predictions with no skin in the game has been a forum past-time all over the internet, so I'm hardly going to ask you to stop.

Not very consistent on the argumentation though. First I don't know what kind of strategy I'm using, now I don't know what I'm doing because I'm not invested. I guess the only way to win this game is not to play.

Quote from: TraderTimm
We just made it to your 'ludicrously overpriced' target. Hope you have a stop-loss order in Smiley

And you seriously think I'm 'losing' something because I'm not making a profit where one could be made? You obviously don't know anything about me, maybe you should stop speculating. Heh.

Quote from: TraderTimm
I'm here for the long haul, and that means, until bitcoin conquers the world - or conversely, it withers to irrelevance. I do know, however, I'll be around long after you've gone. Believe it.

From what I have seen so far you are here for the quick buck and need the price to go as high as quickly as it can for that purpose. Or wildly bounce around at least. None of which helps the Bitcoin economy in the long run.

And you are speculating on how old I am too I guess Smiley
40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bitcoin! on: July 08, 2011, 02:17:12 AM
How are you measuring the size of the "actual" economy?

Take a look at the Wiki list of companies taking Bitcoin and sum their total estimated turnover. Obviously this is highly imprecise since there is not a lot of information available, most if not all are privately owned etc. but I would not estimate more than a couple of million USD a year. Even that is highly optimistic because most are likely only taking a fraction in BTC right now (e.g. I would wager memorydealers currently loses money on promoting Bitcoin). The list doesn't contain any seriously large company, or even medium sized company that I can see. Tradehill proxying Amazon may be the largest, though I doubt they have had more than a few hundred customers for this so far.

If you take a highly optimistic 5 million USD, then at 7 million BTC the exchange rate should be around 0.7 USD/BTC now, not $15. Since it seems obvious there is a lot of work to be done before Bitcoin can even be technically conscionably accepted
by less than adventurous retailers (like Amazon), it will take that much time for the economy to grow by those numbers. Until then, the speculative ratio is over 20:1. If it goes to $30 again, that's over 40:1. $60? 80:1. How much is not ludicrous?

Quote from: bitcoinBull
I think the two important indicators are network difficulty and exchange volume / price, both of which have been growing like wildfire.

Neither of which reflect the actual economy size. As long as it's worth it, new miners will join, but they are speculating just as much as traders.

Quote from: bitcoinBull
"Someone" cashed out over a million bucks today

Are you looking at blockexplorer and a known exchange wallet address? Otherwise it could be anything but a cashout. It could be the exchange moving funds between wallets for all we know. If you're looking at the exchange turnover, how do you know it's not just a few traders trading the same balances back and forth? None of this has any correlation with the actual economy, which consists of people paying eachother for goods and services. Couple of years ago everyone thought mortgage derivatives consisted of real value too.

Quote from: bitcoinBull
network difficulty is a reliable measure of the size of the economy.

Obviously I completely disagree with this. By this argument the economy has grown incredibly fast over the last couple of weeks and will suddenly stop growing much between the next 2 increases (according to chodpaba's numbers).

Quote from: bitcoinBull
If you know how to reliably measure the "real world value" of assets, maybe you should tell Wall Street.

Hah, Wall Street is not interested in real numbers, you should know that by now. Some bank got sued by its own shareholders because they paid out almost double the bonuses (4+ billion USD) than they actually made (2-ish billion USD).

Quote from: bitcoinBull
Speculative expectation has been setting the price of things like houses, oil, bread, gold, and stocks ever since civilization moved to from a barter economy to a monetary economy.  Why should the price of bitcoin be any different?

Hopefully because the underlying system is more robust. As the real economy around it grows, bubble type activity should subside, but it does need to survive that first. If it fails on that count, Bitcoin will be remembered as a classic ponzi scheme, albeit a brilliant one.
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