I don't know what the importance of Modric for the Croatian national team still is at the moment, but it certainly isn't the same as it was 4/6/8 years ago. He could still contribute a lot I guess and he is the kind of player who can deliver beyond expectations, but he is going to turn 39 years old and I doubt that he still has the energy to carry the whole Croatian game as he often did in the past. So whether he gets playing time or not, he can still be an important part of the team with his presence and experience. But in the near term saying that Croatia is nothing without Modric were doomed to become true as Modric will soon retire I guess. It's time to rebuild the team already.

That's what I think could go differently in this game. Real Madrid is the team that usually waits and then strikes hard when the chance is there. They are very strategic about their game, but Dortmund sometimes benefits from short to medium phases of high pressure and then score. They are more susceptible to mistakes though and it will be about taking Vinicius Junior out of the game. I am confident that this could go well for them as they have done it with Mbappe against PSG in quite a convincing manner. He did have two shots on target I think in both games combined and Dortmund got lucky when he hit the post.

I don't know whether it makes a lot of sense to talk about gambling. It could be more of a general issue called addictions. Nobody would stop someone from trying to play cards for money or something. Or play a round of roulette. It's something people will try and as soon as there are ways to easily access something at a young age, it'S taking place no matter what.

Take porn as another example. Whether there are courses in school about the dangers of porn addiction or not, it won't stop any of the kids interested in it to access it via their mobile phones. The problem is that not even a ban would solve the problem.

I do think though that public advertisements on TV and Youtube are not the best way to go about it. These advertisements are often said up in a way that's telling the people how cool and promising gambling is. That might be problematic, but if someone really wants to gamble, then better make sure that kid knows when to stop with anything (alcohol, drugs, gambling, porn, etc.) instead of focusing on one specific thing. It can be part of a cause generally teaching about dangers and threats in life and how quickly risks can be underestimated or go unnoticed entirely up until a point when it is hard to get away with low to no harm done.

I sometimes feel that everyone who hears something about cryptocurrencies will search for the next thing that he or she believes will explode 10000x. It is the feeling that they missed the train and now find themselves hunting that one coin nobody else knows about. In other words, probably 90% of new investors decide against going down the solid route and DCA into Bitcoin overtime right from the start.

The worst is when you get into hopping from Bitcoin into shit coins and try to do that repeatedly, hoping to double your money. In the very, very beginning I have given some shit coins a shot and while it is exciting to see some of them go up, the markets for them very quickly dry out or some of the "dev wallets" get flash dumped and you are screwed.

The proof lies in the data for Bitcoin. There are threads that explain in a very solid way where somebody would be if they had investors X amount over time in a certain interval. It is mind-blowing and only in hindsight do more people understand how powerful DCAing would have actually been for them even with small amounts.

They can make huge profits when they get out much higher than they got in. You are mentioning time frames like a year, but when you are around for long enough, you could have easily known that one year as a fixed investment time frame can go very wrong in Bitcoin. We have had what some people tend to call the crypto winter and those can take a very long time.

There is no perfect timing that you can lay out as a plan. Whether your timing was perfect or not can be judged in retrospect. The perfect timing might be a thing when you are someone from a very knowledgeable circle in the industry and you knew a few things that others don't. Otherwise chasing the perfect timing as an average investor is nonsense. Luck decides whether you got it perfect or not.

Naja mehr Mühe mit den Bonusfragen ist so eine Sache, ich denke, dass bei den Absteigern die meisten da die gleichen Gedanken hatten und vor allem auch Heidenheim auf dem Zettel hatten. Ich gehe mal davon aus, dass nächste Saison dann auch viele zu Kiel tendieren werden. Das liegt dann irgendwie nahe.

Ich habe überhaupt jetzt erst realisiert, dass man pro Absteiger 4 Punkte bekommt. Ich dachte, wenn man die irgendwie alle richtig hat, aber das wäre eigentlich ja unschaffbar vor allem mit der Reihenfolge. Pro Team auf dem richtigen Rang 4 Punkte. Wenn man da so richtig Glück hat, kann man tatsächlich über die Bonustipps am Ende noch was reißen.

The roles are defined already and it is almost not worth mentioning that Real Madrid is the favorite in this final, but I prefer to discuss about the ifs indeed. Under normal circumstances, the game probably ends something like 3-1 for Madrid, but now that Dortmund has beaten big clubs and they have done in an impressive manner, this final is going to be a different game than just some more or less normal group stage game. But that applies to both teams.

Looking back at how Real Madrid has played against RB Leipzig, it was much closer than I thought it would be. This issue of underestimating the opponent is not a problem that Madrid has, but Dortmund is still different because Madrid doesn't yet know how Dortmund will get into the game from the beginning. I think Dortmund might try to push pretty hard early on.

When they play against Manchester City or Bayern, they exactly know what is to come. There is no need for them to first wait and see. They know that these teams will take control and create pressure. In the case of Dortmund I am curious myself and I think it is not impossible that Dortmund will be far more aggressive than I think, especially in the first 15-20 minutes of the game. I hope they'll go for it and light some fireworks.

$65,759.44

$65,759.44

I think that the international final is eventually more exciting to fans than a German - German final. Finalist is finalist, yes, but it still is somehow different when a team wins against Real Madrid, while themselves being a team from the Bundesliga that is not called Bayern. As there has been a final already between Dortmund and Bayern, I think this is about the best outcome for everyone. I hope it will be fun to watch and Real doesn't kill Dortmund in the first 20 minutes.

Yes I can guaranteed pin down how it was back at the time. I lived in Switzerland and needed money / someone owed me money from abroad. It was a pain in the ass because they deduct a hidden fee giving you a wrong foreign exchange value, and they charge a fee. It is double against you. I thought this sucks, and searched around and came across transferwise back at the time. But then I got other reasons to look for decentralized solutions, mainly because of my academic interests, and Bitcoin is still the answer.

It is impressive how out of a sudden lethargic banks began to facilitate transactions within single days. It is a very interesting development that Bitcoin took until now. Central banks are an artificial roof on an unstable building. But I want to be honest: I don't know what the ultimate solution is. I just know that alternatives won't weaken the system we have.

Danke Dir!

Einen Platz auf dem Treppchen kann ich mir wohl nur noch mit dem waghalsigsten Manöver der Saison erhoffen 14 Punkte Rückstand, da muss jetzt wohl ein Strike her Freund: alle Neune! 36 Punkte, dann geht noch was!

Was meinst Du mit den Bonuspunkten? Dass einige die Absteiger richtig getippt haben? Da lag ich bis auf Darmstadt total daneben. Habe mich damals für Heidenheim und Bochum zusätzlich entschieden, aber Heidenheim ist ja safe raus aus der Sache.

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Damit hat bis hierher die stärkste Runde Lemming erreicht mit 24 Punkten an Spieltag 29. Wenn man überlegt, dann sind 24 Punkte echt heftig. Das sind 6 korrekte Ergebnisse! Wahnsinnig...

Und wenig überraschend liegen Begru und Unknown01 auf 2. und 3., denn beide haben 5 Spieltagssiege eingefahren! Das ist schon krass, wenn man an Varianz denkt und so. 14 Teilnehmer wären im Schnitt, wenn alle ungefähr gleich informiert wären, 2,5 Spieltagssiege pro Kopf. cygan hatte als 10. noch 4 Spieltagssiege, was für den Tabellenkeller gar nicht schlecht ist (@cygan, der musste sein! )

Viel Erfolg an alle!

Depending on what you are referring to, mindset might play a role. For instance, when volatility kicks in as it always did for Bitcoin and weak hands feel like selling is the right thing to do when in fact the answer to volatility is to stick to the plan and accumulate no matter what. The no matter what is the mindset thing. People often want to play the market. I'll be straight out honest, I tried to do that in the distant past and thought if it drops and I believe it drops (although I didn't have any good reason to back it up), I sell and then buy back later for cheaper. I can tell you it is at best a coin flip and it is probably not a coin flip because psychology doesn't stop to kick in. You get the timing wrong getting off the train and you get the timing wrong getting on the train.

Buy the dip and HODL is only half of the equation. Or maybe it is 150% of the equation, but we need 100% to get it right. Going too hard, going too low, all bad. The solution is: Buy and HODL.

When you make the decision to buy, it hopefully means you got cash at your disposal that you don't need anytime soon (or never in a best case scenario) and you are happy about what you get for it because what you get is the thing you think will appreciate in value.

Buy the dip, buy the high, buy the all the way down, buy all the way up, and stop when you think you are loaded as per your own desire/need/requirement to add to your portfolio (whatever that consists of).

Why would a drop of 50%-70% be inevitable? You mean like law of nature? That's nonsense. If you said that those who have been around for a long time know that this is a very real possibility, then I agree. But there is no intrinsic force that makes Bitcoin inevitable drop by the aforementioned range. I have said a couple of times in the past that I don't believe this or that is or is not possible in regards to the price, or is unlikely so to speak. But I learned that I know nothing, so I stopped predicting.

Instead I prefer to stick to my conviction that in the long run Bitcoin will go up. I believe that is the best and most upright prediction someone can give. What's the point in providing year, month and day and a price point when there is no realistic chance to get it right? Maybe the gurus have to give these answers in TV shows and on their Twitter channels to make sure their flock of sheep grows in case the gurus got lucky and get close to the prediction.

It's funny when people say that out of these 1000 gurus there are 5 who got it right. But is it these 5 who got it right, or is it almost a necessity that any 5 of 1000 gurus get it pretty right?

Since you said it is inevitable that Bitcoin will drop 50%-70%, what do you think when we get there? I want to know so I am prepared to buy the dip. 

Dann hoffe ich aber, dass Du nicht generell die Tendenz hast, die Termine für die Tippabgabe zu verschlafen, denn das kam mich in der ersten Saison mehrmals teuer zu stehen! Das ist dann schon richtig ärgerlich.

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@cygan Deine 459 Punkte aus der Saison 21/22 sind schon echt eine Hausnummer. Jetzt stehe ich da mit meinen 400 und mache vielleicht noch einige mehr daraus, aber nicht mal eine top 3 Platzierung springt bei raus. Da gibt es ganz schön Varianz bisher. In 19/20 haben Dir 386 gereicht, um zu gewinnen.

1. Usyk
2. Yes
3. No
4. 2

Game 1:  34, 25'
Game 2:  34, 25'

Damn buwaytress, I didn't notice you dropped so much. But you know, maybe I just lost sight of you over time, need my glasses I guess! But I noticed that you are really in a bad spot as the three guys above you also have a game in hand (in case you missed that...man, I see you striking back once it hits me)

Jokes aside, the game in hand looks nice, but things are still close. The top of the table is crazy close from 1. - 9. Anything can happen I guess. But that's how it should be, having a great thriller until the end.

Dem Glückwunsch schließe ich mich an @1r0n1c.

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Tja da sieht man mal wieder wie unfair das Ende der Saison für manche Mannschaften manchmal sein kann. Überlegt euch mal, ihr spielt beim FC Köln und dreht dieses Wahnsinnsspiel gegen Union Berlin und ahnt dann schon, dass die Dortmunder keinen richtigen Bock haben und gegen Mainz verlieren. Und zack steht es 3-0 für Mainz nach 23 Minuten. Ein Ergebnis, dass es unter allen anderen Umständen mit 95% Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht gegeben hätte.

Ich finde das immer wieder ärgerlich, aber auf der anderen Seite kann man das auch nicht wirklich Wettbewerbsverzerrung nennen, denn Dortmund hat sich diese Ausgangslage ja auch erspielt. Ist bei EM/WM in den Gruppen auch immer so: zwei Spiele gewonnen, dann wird im dritten die Gesamte A-Mannschaft geschont.

Deshalb wäre das Saisonende noch deutlich spannender unten im Keller, wenn Mainz nicht drei Punkte geholt hätte.

Was it? I did a quick check and couldn't find the word "replace" in the Nakamoto white paper. I bring this up because I think this is one of these catchphrases that some people (or many) quickly fell for and propagated it themselves. If you asked some people what they know about Bitcoin, this is probably one of the most provided answers while they couldn't explain the technology in any further detail let alone provide the core principles that Bitcoin is based on.

If anything, Bitcoin drove the price up for the legacy system to remain shitty. Remember how long it took for fiat transactions to be settled between banks? No need to discuss intercontinental transfers... Only after Bitcoin emerged, they began introducing 24h guaranteed settlements, then upgraded to instant settlements within the same currency unions.

Now they are embracing Bitcoin because the risk is high to not do it. One bank did the first step, others followed. First they didn't want to be the fool who has been the first, now they don't want to be the fool who missed the boat completely.

A lot of things are happening and this idea that Bitcoin will replace all cash in the world is nonsense to begin with. Bitcoin can become a decentralized geopolitical financial tool in a very complex world and countries might be competing for domination of this geopolitical financial tool. But they also want a tool where they can plan or with some certainty anticipate the effects of their financial political actions. Giving up national fiat currency means that the player either probably has sufficient power over Bitcoin, but that would imply other countries wouldn't be well advised to give up theirs.

It is hard to imagine that Bitcoin will be so uncontestedly powerful as a financial system that countries start rushing one after another into it, abandoning their currencies and make Bitcoin the one and only currency.

But it's an interesting idea to think about and it is not like I would say no per se because I don't know. But saying that "Bitcoin was once thought to be Fiat's replacement" is something that some people might have thought without understanding Bitcoin, and I doubt that it was the opinion of the majority of Bitcoiners, and I doubt that Satoshi thought he is about to kill Fiat once and forever. But he saw the need for an alternative system that can exist outside of the Fiat realm.