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Studying the typical 60 day cycles in past uptrends I would say a 15% pullback from $9200 is probable.
$7800 in mid february?
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Why would the launch of Bakkt cause a bullrun? It takes time. The only thing that can cause a proper bullrun is the aftermath of the halvening.
After a few months, the halving of the block reward will automatically increase the price and kickstart the next bullrun. And this time FOMO with institutional investors aswell.
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The one we have experienced in 2017 wasn't really expected to happen and the price increase was actually brought by FOMO more than the demand itself that's why it went up to almost 20,000$. So to answer your question yes it's possible to reach that price again and maybe more but the reason of the increase might be because of the increase in demand and not the FOMO since we are having a hard time going back up there even with just the FOMO alone.
At the next bullrun (late 2020 to 2021?) the FOMO effect might happen amongst 3 different groups. All with the 2017 bullrun in mind. - Traders/investors that are already in the crypto space. - Institutional investors(!). - New people that has been on the sideline and being sceptical about crypto since 2018/2019. These will even FOMO in at $50k+ ! |
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The hype around the Bitcoin halving is much bigger than Litecoin's, because Bitcoin is more popular. That might well be the FOMO effect that will start the next major bullrun for Bitcoin like in 2017.
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$400,000 is in the upper boundary of Bob Loukas' prediction of the 4 year cycle peak. He is basically expecting something similar as in 2017. I guess we can hope for 400k. But should expect something like "only" 100k. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPXQa47iT28&t= |
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What I find even more important is to actually sell a portion of my coins whenever the market seems extremely overbought, which is something I didn't do in 2017 but did do so this year. I can look forward buying lower without feeling bad.
The monthly RSI was above 70 from December 2016 to February 2018. So the market was extremely overbought at $3,000 but that was nowhere near the top. How do you decide where to sell? Divergence on the daily chart is something to pay attention to. If price goes up but RSI goes sideways or doesn't reach the same RSI as several days ago, price will probably go down soon. That happened from december 7 to 17 at the ATH in 2017. |
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Yep, that's the consensus. But not until late 2020 or 2021. Can't have a 50-100x bull run every year. After such a parabolic bull run, a 1 year long bear market is to be expected. Like in 2014 and 2018.
You should watch Bob Loukas' youtube videos about market cycles and his "4 year journey" project.
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We must not forget the massive price increase from april to june. That was waaay to much in such a short time.
We're now 134% up from the low in december 2018.
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Last time it took about 3 years to reach the previous All Time High. November 2013 to january 2017 (around $1150). Going to be interesting to see how long it will take this time.
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600k in the next bull-run peak seems unrealistic. Maybe in 2027?  |
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Bitcoin was a bubble, popped at 20K.
Down is all it has left.
Sub 20K is history in 595 days |
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Lets take a look at how long it took Bitcoin to sustain certain price increases (%) back in the
beginning of the previous bull cycle (starting september 2015). By "sustain" I mean not going below that price again.
(Starting point: september 2015, $220)
100% increase: 8 months ($440)
200% increase: 14 months ($660)
300% increase: 18 months ($880)
Now the price is at $8400. 150% increase since $3300 in february. For those who are in total shock after the recent dump, this is something to be aware of. It takes time for the price to go up and establish new historical lows.
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Will be interesting to see what happens when the price touches the 20-week MA or EMA.
Back in 2016 and beginning of 2017 it bounced off the 20 MA/EMA five or six times.
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We are dropping like a rock. $9800
Too early to dismiss my prediction.
Your prediction was 48 days. You deleted the post where you said it was a typo and you meant 48 days. |
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Doesn't matter who is behind Bitcoin. It's a distributed network with high security, so that person can't shut it down lol.
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Seems like Bitcoin has become a stablecoin at around $11,400 haha |
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We had similar patterns from september 2015 and all the way to november 2017. 50 to 70 days cycles between lows. And 20-35% price decline from the tops within the cycles.
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Lets hope the price goes up nice and steady like from august 2015 to december 2017 July 2020: 100 000$ May 2021: 280 000$ Then a 1,5 year long bear market bottoming at 50 000$ |
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I do believed that the market works on cycle. I mean with the block halving every 4 years, that is definitely a cycle.
The 4 year price cycles don't match with the halving events though. So, two seperate things. |
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In 2 years anything might happen to be honest.. But the price is two high. In recent couple years we see 0 growth long term. Don't know why they expect something now
We are in a new 4 year cycle. Check out Bob Loukas on youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZZNdGMOrs |
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