In long term hold games like this the more patient win, but sometimes it's good to realize if we are bubbled or not. That is very hard to do tho, and you can risk missing a perfect spot for moon.
This just doesn't fit with the reality we have observed since November 2013 (although does fit with before then). Since Nov 2013, we have witnessed a fairly steady decline, through a series of downward steps, from 1,100 ish to 220 today. This process continues, some 17 months after it began. This is a remarkably slow and predictable bursting of a bubble. Past bubbles, including past bitcoin bubbles, deflated much more quickly, in a matter of days/months. Even historical bubbles, like the tulip bubble, all deflated within a year. I would have thought that in this age of instant information, bubble bursting should be instant. But no, even after 17 months the realisation that the price is going to fall has still not fully been reflected by traders. Crazy. It must be due to fanatics, holding up the price (at huge financial loss to themselves), rather than letting it find its new equilibrium level. |
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I agree. The recent history of bitcoin, since summer 2014, is littered with sharp steps down when a critical support level is broken.
And 200-210 looks like such a support level.
Break that, and it's big plunge time.
Of course, it may not break that, and rise from here on. So you should buy now, or wait in the hope of much lower prices than 200.
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Since the mini price recovery of summer 2014, the BTC/USD price has declined in a series of steps, occurring in mid Aug 2014 (600 to 500), mid Sep 2014 (500 to 400), early Oct 2014 (400 to 300, then back to around 350), then a long period of relative stability until the big drop to around 200 in early Jan 2015.
Each step was preceded by a few days of gradual price declines. This decline took the price to just below the recent lowest price. So, for example:
- in 10-12 Aug 2014 the price drifted down to around 550, which was the lowest price for a few months. The next day the price fell sharply to below 500.
- in 13-16 Sep 2014 the price drifted down to 450, again just a new recent low. The next day the price fell sharply to below 400.
- in early Jan 2015, the Bitstamp closedown caused the price to fall to a new low of below 300, which then triggered the sharp fall to around 200.
So my hypothesis is that if the price drifts down to 200, then we will see the next big step down, very quickly (within a day to two of the price drifting down to 200) falling to 100.
Don't buy at 200. It will be the next big fall.
Either:
- wait until 100; or
- buy now, as you believe that BTC will never fall to 200 again.
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So how do you feel now?
The highest price in 2015 remain Jan 1st
when will that change?
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At a simplistic level, btc has ranged between 0 and 1,100, so 270 doesnt seem too bad.
But it has only been above 270 since Nov 2013, so its not a fantastic price.
As a speculative bubble based gamble, I would say only enter at a really good price, like in double figures (below 100)
Then you have a decent upside, given past performance.
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I will be more than happy with $275 at the end of the day
Wow. Can you imagine anyone saying that in 2014? May be someone with a big short position! |
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Guaranteed to go to the moon!!!
Here's the proof.
The average daily increase, over the past day, is 7%. We are now in the run up to Easter, where stable increases are the norm.
So, 7% increase each day until Easter equals..... 1,200%!!!!!
That means BTC > USD 3,000 by Easter guaranteed!!!
Fill yer boots
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Come on people, a few more votes please so we can make some sense of the results.
Don't be shy, it is anonymous.
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The poll is not yet showing any clear sign of bias between the A's and the B's.
Perhaps we need more votes, but perhaps there is little difference between them?
Not many votes yet from the C's yet, which I expected to be split between the arch-doomsters ("I have warned you before...") and the undecided potential investors ("should I invest?"), but perhaps there are not so many of them around now? I can name more than 3 though!
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There has been a lot of talk about how a person's Bitcoin holdings (or not) affects their outlook.
This poll seeks to understand that relationship.
The poll involves two questions, which provide the codes above.
Question 1: Do you own Bitcoin and if so, what was your average purchase price (if you have done a lot of short term trading, just go for a typical price for your major purchases):
(A): Yes I have BTC. I paid less than $200 each on average
(B): Yes I have BTC. I paid more than $200 each on average
(C): No, I have no BTC.
Question 2: What do you think the price of BTC will be at the end of 2015.
(1): Significantly higher than it is today (>$350)
(2): Roughly the same as it is today (say $150-$350)
(3): Significantly lower than it is today (<$150)
Put the answers together to get your vote: eg A2 etc
Thanks
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I think we should take Post-purchase rationalization into account before making predictions:Post-purchase rationalization, also known as Buyer's Stockholm Syndrome, is a cognitive bias whereby someone who has purchased an expensive product or service overlooks any faults or defects in order to justify their purchase. It is a special case of choice-supportive bias.
Expensive purchases often involve a lot of careful research and deliberation, and many consumers will often refuse to admit that their decision was made in poor judgment. Many purchasing decisions are made emotionally, based on factors such as brand-loyalty and advertising, and so are often rationalized retrospectively in an attempt to justify the choice.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization You're right. Each prediction should also explain whether the person: (a) has an average purchase price below $200 (b) has an average purchase price above $200 (c) does not have any BTC |
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It seems the peak price so far in 2015 was USD 321 at 1am on 1 January 2015.
2015 has not been a kind year for BTC so far.
Any new predictions for the peak price in 2015? Or are we sticking with 321?
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I think some disruptive innovations have to come around the increase the value of the coin again. Maybe some innovations that make it even more easier to use Bitcoin for the "normal" people.
This. I just cant see how the price can rise above 400 without a major news release about a new use of bitcoin that will deliver clear cost reductions and does not require people to hold btc for any more than a few seconds, and certainty does not require a physical wallet buried in the garden. |
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You are people who have been fleeced by superior people, who will inheret the Earth.
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Presumably for the same reason that not many people get their mates to burgle their houses and then claim the lost property back on the insurance.
It's fraud.
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Sorry, found answer to own question. The stats page!
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I haven't been on here much since the price fell from c.350 to c.200. I notice that there are now fewer bears on here, but also fewer people in general. In particular, there seem to be fewer new people asking questions about bitcoin. Just to a few diehard bulls and bears of yesteryear.
Is there some way of measuring activity on this site?
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