Oh go on then. Better odds than the lottery!

15Qv8xJdU8QfxpqD7giUktssWhhzGLbPqs

Say you are right, and the halving is already priced in. The thing is, that doesn't stop there from being further speculative increase or new ATHs based on manic FOMO alone. They just wouldn't last very long. Kind of like every other bubble we've had...

There are lots of positive indicators such as increased transaction volume, search statistics etc, and you pick something that has never led the price? Notice the difficulty has roughly doubled since June, when the price was oddly enough roughly half what it's been lately. All you are seeing is the miners rushing to catch up the doubling of price that ALREADY HAPPENED!

That timescale sounds fairly sensible to me. 100k/coin (as a STABLE price, not just a panic-peak, I mean technically some idiot already bought the price to 3200EUR on btce last year and rightly nobody counts that ) should be supported by a much more mature infrastructure and genuine use cases for the coin, which will take time because it involves real people making real changes in their habits and in many cases, careers.

This. Lots of people bought at 1000+, that's why the price went that high in the first place (Willy aside) and was the time when BTC had its greatest exposure. Of course when the price goes so high so quickly, the new dumb money can't really absorb many expensive coins whereas the earlier adopters have endless quantities to dump...

The police are very quick to act when the smell of money is in the air, it seems..

LOL always amusing how the mood of posts is dictated by the most recent market movements. Lots of sideways, people will be super conservative. Just had a rally? oh well then it'll be 50k by 2016...

BTC>$100k by 2030 is certainly not the most outlandish prediction ever made on this board. In fact it's a conservative success scenario and a long time scale compared to many. There's this weird contradiction where people secretly hope to get rich overnight/fear missing out on giant bull runs, yet when it comes down to considering the implications over a long time scale they don't have the balls to follow through.

From surveys it would seem the number of people who own even that number of coins is actually quite small so I wouldn't say 'too many rich people' is such a killer argument, especially as 15 years allows plenty of time for many current holders to sell on their coins to new users.

OK, I should have used the term overpriced. My apologies 

What I'm getting at is that if we look at your data, we can see that forum activity hasn't increased in line with the price vs before the $1200 bubble. To be fair it was even more out of whack during the bubble peak, but we're still behind on forum activity compared to price. It's not a small difference either. So what concerns me is that the community/buzz may not have grown in scale with the price, indicating a market cap that still hasn't fully settled after the bubble and therefore a high price vs 'value' ratio. Sure the value/useage has gone up steadily, but the price increased exponentially in a very short time, so has it been enough?

If anyone is really motivated they could survey as many bitcoin communities as possible to get a better idea on where we actually are in terms of userbase (and therefore base value), because it's likely that other sites are getting more % of users as time goes by.

Hmm.....

Do you reckon this has some predictive merit? From graphing price vs new posts/topics, they obviously look strongly linked but the price seems to lead the posts, not the other way around. At least when it comes to big dramatic moves.

It's interesting that the price was much lower vs forum activity before the 2013 bubbles. Does that mean we are still very overvalued vs the size of the community, or does it just mean that this forum is far less of a hub than it used to be?

Maybe, though your 14 month deadline is almost upon us 

That's a good idea I'll have to steal. Getting caught up in the moment is hardly ever a good thing, and this technique (writing down instructions to yourself) could help your objectivity and detachment when important moments come.

It's been a boring year, and on top of that new people are always joining so the ratio of newbie posts to oldsters goes up.

The quote in the article:
"If these away, the markets for undeclared work and drugs could be dried out. In addition, it would have the central banks easier to enforce its monetary policy.The teaching in Würzburg economics professor called on the federal government to promote at the international level for the abolition of cash. “That would certainly be a good topic for the agenda of the G-7 summit in Elmau,” he said."

'central banks easier to enforce its monetary policy' is pretty much the opposite of suggesting Bitcoin as a replacement for cash. He just wants to make fiat currency even more baseless and vaporous, not limited and scarce like Bitcoin.

Male or female, nobody's capable of reading the second post of a thread or detecting humour apparently.

I think bitcoin or alts are an excellent technology for storing value, volatility aside, there is no other form of money so versatile and stealthily transportable as a wallet file. Not to mention, if people use bitcoin only as a WU replacement and never save any, they have to use the tedious, time consuming and costly on and off ramp exchanges for every transaction. You can do it if you want, but bitcoin's natural tendency is to be self contained and currency-like.

Think about it, if bitcoin did indeed become that efficient way for transmitting value world wide with lots of adoption, and nobody hoarded it, then the transaction volume should be quite steady on average, supporting a steady exchange rate and thereby encouraging businesses and people to not bother with converting to fiat because it would be more expensive and less convenient. And there you end up with a very solid currency.

Surprisingly low prices..

I'm glad at least some of the trolls are still putting a good effort into making well written, entertaining posts. I like the way this one goes right for the self esteem! Very acidic.

Cheers! 

LOL, you said it well 

Lol. Not ouch, more like very good decision...