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21  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 25, 2022, 01:33:14 AM
Prediction for 25.07.2022 is downwards.
22  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 23, 2022, 06:59:53 PM
Another correct prediction, currently standing at 5/5 accuracy predicting direction of daily closing candles.

I will not be able to run the system for tomorrow, so the next forecast will be for Monday, 25th.

23  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 23, 2022, 12:36:22 AM
Prediction for 23.07.2022 is downwards.
24  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 22, 2022, 09:26:54 PM
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What is the basics of this? Is this just using multiple indicators and price action? Or is it factoring in all the macro economic indicators as well? I suggest you give some thesis behind this if you want someone to believe this idea. To me so far this looks imaginary let's wait for few days to see if the market still moves as per your line. But will love to know about this in detail.

It is machine learning system. Machine learning is a subset of AI. I'm not using any technical indicators or macro-economic indicators in the system.
It's using logic and algorithms from speech recognition engineering. Price is processed using various algorithms and then machine learns dependencies, patterns, basically learning how to predict it.

I will continue to post daily predictions. Let's see the result for e.g. 30 days.

Current standings:


Still can't append photo for some reason.
25  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 22, 2022, 08:44:59 PM
Let me break it down for you, as I'm not yet sure if your brain is not capable of understanding simple things or you are just here to cure your frustration from not having any knowledge about the topic.

When you train and test AI, you split the data into the training and test phase in the dataset. Test phase is where you test system performance. Then you can use that to predict the future.

I posted forecast on July 15th:

Quote
Finally done,

here's the forecast for the next 4 days.

19937.01
19381.303
20040.582
20372.076


and then 3 days after I noticed I didnt made forecast but these predictions are the last 4 days in the TEST PHASE from dataset.

Quote
I've made a mistake with predictions I posted. I've found there is some error in the code and function for future prediction is not working properly.
Basically what happened, model predicted the test data, not the future, so technically it was not a prediction.
Currently, I'm able just to post next day forecast, until I fix for the multi days function.

Take a look, predictions I posted and real price for the 4 predicted days; 100% correlation.

19937.01                              
19381.30
20040.58
20372.07

19970.56
19323.91
20212.07
20569.92

Quote
Quote
Take a look, predictions I posted and real price for the 4 predicted days; 100% correlation.
and tell me where you got the "real prices" of 19970.56 and 19970.56 since it never went below 20k since mid-14th.

What you see here is prediction for the test phase, not the future dates you are so stubbornly trying to point as failed prediction. And I OPENLY said it was my mistake and it is not a FUTURE forecast.

And how many times I said in this thread I'm not trying to forecast exact prices, but the trend and direction, and somehow you failed to even read that.

After that I said also multiple times that I will forecast one day in advance until I fix multidays forecast, exactly what I am doing last 4 days. Because you can't read the thread, here's quotes of them for you.

Quote
Prediction for tomorrow 19.07.2022 is upwards.
Quote
Forecast for 20.07.2022 is downwards.
Quote
Prediction for 21.07.2022 is downwards again.
Quote
Prediction for 22.07.2022 is downwards.

Now take that, and compare it where market closed.

Once again, if you are going to notoriusly lie and take all the things out of context, please restrain yourself from commenting.
You have made cool joke, expressed your frustration and it is time to do that on the next thread, as it seems that's what are you doing in your life.

If you are somehow able to write intelligent comments like other guys here, I would be very happy to answer you.





26  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 22, 2022, 08:03:07 PM
Can you read properly?

This is what I wrote:
Quote
I've made a mistake with predictions I posted. I've found there is some error in the code and function for future prediction is not working properly.
Basically what happened, model predicted the test data, not the future, so technically it was not a prediction.
Currently, I'm able just to post next day forecast, until I fix for the multi days function.

It was prediction in the test, not the future dates you said. I stated that in few posts. Why are u taking it out of context?

Quote
Prediction for 22.07.2022 is downwards.


I meant on these daily predictions I post everyday.

If you are going to take everything out of context and just lie, I would like you to leave the thread.

27  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 22, 2022, 07:36:38 PM
Quote
If forecasting was really a way of making money in the crypto space, then we could also say that the crypto space has been converted into a gambling ground where anyone can just come in, make predictions, win a certain amount of money and leave the market.

But, whatever happens at the end of the day, I am not against you posting results tested in real time but believe me, a natural market can change predictions that may not be on target. I had multiple experiences with lots of analysts but no one stayed accurate for long period of times; not sure how one analyst needs to update themselves according to market conditions.

Forecasting is a way to take gambling away from the markets. Yes, everyone can make predictions, but everyone will lose money and leave the market if they dont have tools or knowledge to forecast the market with decent accuracy.

Well, analysts are flawed beforehand, they have emotions, greed, they need to pay rent, eat, sleep, etc. That's why I built smart machine to do that. Of course market can change, hence my software is adaptive.

Quote
Yeah right, and why are you selling these magic golden goos rather than taking advantage of it and making yourself rich without a care in the world?
5 days ahead and 90% accuracy, common, if you would have said something at least dreamable you would have found yourself a sucker by now, throw in some genome mapping and supersymmetric theories to make it really unbelievable.  Wink

I'm not sure if you are familiar, but if you sell something you get money, and if you sell it a lot of times, you get rich. Crazy, huh?

Maybe it is dreamable for you to trade profitably and make a good predictions, for me it's reality. I predicted last 5 days closing candles in advance, what have you done in that time, except making 'trying to be funny' hamster trader posts.

Edit: well, look at that, today is also going to close as predicted, must be supersymmetry.
28  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 22, 2022, 01:02:03 AM
Prediction for 22.07.2022 is downwards.
29  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 22, 2022, 12:41:31 AM
On top of prediction, almost all trading strategies and risk managment would be improved significantly.

Would you in the sea of dishonest vendors selling renamed RSI, be interested in buying real AI predictions?
What would be the guarantee that your predictions also cannot be those renamed RSI based strategies? Because, when someone arrives here, will blame all the previous ones like they are the holy person who comes here to bring all new changes but nothing changed on the profit levels so far with almost all the traders here for over the decade of time.

Honestly, I am interested on buying a trading bot or prediction or a trading strategy which will get me some 10% profits consistently but only after a year long testing. I mean even I am interested on your promotion, I will not rush to deal with you. I will take time for following you and for evaluating your strategies/bots which last for months. In the span of such evaluating time, most fake ones will disappear. This may be the reason why I am still into searching of such a profitable bot and not making profits with my sleeping bitcoins Wink.

Well, I understand your suspicious point of view, it is rightly justified. What I am doing right now is forecasting, as you probably saw, predicting next day in advance. Someone using RSI or whatever technical analysis can't do it, simply because these tools are lagging, they tell you something after the fact. If you followed forecasts for the last try days I posted, you could make 10% by simple trading in the direction of prediction, but how you trade and manage the risk is out of scope of forecasts I provide. You are welcome to follow forecasts, it started good with 3 out of 3 days direction predicted, but we will see what real accuracy is after some statistically significant number of days/forecast e.g. 30, 50 and 100 days.





30  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 21, 2022, 12:55:23 AM
Prediction for 21.07.2022 is downwards again.

31  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 20, 2022, 12:58:10 AM
Forecast for 20.07.2022 is downwards.
32  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 19, 2022, 02:29:29 PM
I will be shocked if the most sophisticated AI in the world can give you up to 20% accuracy. The only way it could succeed is if it's stealing from the one who controls the market.


Thats quite an interesting view you got there.
If you take a coin and flip it everytime and enter a trade, you should get ~50% correct trades, so where did you found 20%?
Could you elaborate why even most sophisticated AI would be performing worse than technical analysis or coin flip?
33  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 18, 2022, 05:41:03 PM
Okay let's test next day forecast for some time, I'll post daily predictions for the next day and make table to track the results. Will post in form of screenshot, so it is not editable after the fact.
Results will probably be worse than multi day prediction, but let's test it in real time.

Prediction for tomorrow 19.07.2022 is upwards.
34  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 18, 2022, 03:19:30 PM
Yes, that is just point of visualisation. Currently I can only do it for 1 day in advance until I fix recursive function for forecasting multiple days into the future.

For example, one day prediction for today:

35  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 18, 2022, 10:07:05 AM
Quote
I am interested in artificial intelligence/image processing, can you post more information about how you work? Where do you get the data and how is the comparison made? Are you comparing prices? blueprints? Pictures, graphs, or in short how to get the results. Do you intend to create a site that displays forecast data (provided that the data is not modified after its time "Hashing") and then, after two or three months, we can compare the extent of the error.

I get standard OHLCV data from brokers or data vendors. In most cases it's free and clean.
I can't tell you much details, but image processing and in particular speech recognition problems are quite similar to financial markets.
If you are going to try to develop AI system for markets, take a look at speech recogntion algorithms, I'm quite sure that's the way to follow.

Not sure about creating site, but will post forecasts here, so we can evaluate performance.
36  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 18, 2022, 09:43:38 AM
Quote
For me this sounds to be an interesting project. But I have one problem with the numbers. Before I can rely on numbers or formulas, I need to have exact values and know what they stand for. No cleaning, rounding or whatever people do to make them "easier" for reading. So my question still remains: These bitcoin-rates you mention, are this averages or just the values taken at a certain time? Or do they stand for a trend?
For me a correlation cannot be made without a little bit more information about these numbers. One may follow the principle: "Don't trust any statistics you haven't falsified yourself".

Hi, thanks for the interest. Yes, when the predictions are done, they are converted back to prices. They may be close to actual values, but they stand as the trend.
So for the 100% correlation, I meant trend, or directional accuracy prediction, not exact price values.

Like that quote.
37  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 18, 2022, 08:05:34 AM
Thanks everyone for questions and replies, if I miss to answer something, let me know.

I've made a mistake with predictions I posted. I've found there is some error in the code and function for future prediction is not working properly.
Basically what happened, model predicted the test data, not the future, so technically it was not a prediction.
Currently, I'm able just to post next day forecast, until I fix for the multi days function.

Take a look, predictions I posted and real price for the 4 predicted days; 100% correlation.

19937.01                              
19381.30
20040.58
20372.07

19970.56
19323.91
20212.07
20569.92


Quote
So the prices above. Are they like the average trading price for BTC per day or there's a specific time the Bitcoin trading price is expected to be approximately close to the stated price?

After training and predictions are made, it is converted back to prices for easier reading and interpretation. By no means it is predicting exact price, it will sometimes be very close, sometimes not.
What we are interested as traders is 'trend', hence I'm looking if the price will up or down.

Quote
With such accuracy you dont need to sell your product to become very rich very fast. In fact selling this product seams irractional and raises suspicions. I coded HFT market maker by myself that was giving me decent profits. last think i would do was selling it.

Well, yes and no. To become rich with trading you need capital, either your personal or seeded one from investors. I'm trading my own money right now, as I have no guts to trade other people money.
Frankly, I would never sell the system; code and logic behind it, but information in sort of forecasts - why not?

Quote
If you succeed in developing such a tool, you will be rich in a short time. All you have to do is take a loan and then buy and sell, and since you will know the best time to buy and sell during the next four days, day trading for you will be very profitable.

That sounds very simple, but is far away from reality. Even if the forecasts are good, there is yet to build trading strategy and risk management framework for very profitable trading.
What do you mean by loan, raising money from investors or taking the loan from the banks?

Quote
As for trying to sell such a service, you will find it difficult to do so in the forum.
Post constant price updates prediction and gain trust, and then you may raise money.

I'm not selling anything, yet. I started thread to see opinions and sentiment on the topic - if there is good interest and I manage to provide good forecasts, then it is mutual benefit.
Yes, I'll post regular forecasts, when I finish fixing sequence prediction = more than one day into the future.

Quote
That will actually be a brilliant idea. Taking a loan, buy and sell to make lots of profits before the loan pay back day.
But If actually this A.I has a success percentage rate of 40% to 60% then I will love to ask, please where have you been since last month from 10th to 16th June 2022 when the price of Bitcoin starting falling from $30k to $20k, because I think if this A.I tool was close to being accurate, that would have been the best time for you to have shot your shut, because am sure by now people from all around the world would have been looking for you for your A.I tool, but however, a prediction sometimes may not be accurate and that's why it's call prediction, but moreover I wish you the best as you work more on your project and come to give us update anytime soon

Loan from the crooked banks is a big no. Raising money from investors, maybe.
Well, sadly I was developing the system at the time of the fall. Would also like to test the performance in that period.


38  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 15, 2022, 12:36:33 AM
Finally done,

here's the forecast for the next 4 days.

19937.01
19381.303
20040.582
20372.076

So basically, price will drop today(depending in what time zone you are), and recover a little bit in the last two days of prediction.
Weekend is coming, so there will not be much volatility, next good forecast will be done on Sunday for the following week.
39  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 14, 2022, 11:41:54 PM
Quote
A sneak peek of the forecast for the Bitcoin trends in the coming days, and then we wait and watch how the market performs maybe fore the next hours or days.
Currently I'm running training to obtain prediction for the next 5 days. It takes a lot of resources and it will be finished in approx. 1 hour.
Will post predictions here after it is done. Currently, there is next day prediction and 5 days ahead.

To get predictions for hours or minutes, it takes 50x amount of time as there is more data for training and processing. I will have to update my GPU to multiple TITAN RTX GPUs to do that.

Quote
Right now, it's hard for one to believe this. You know hoe easy it is to draw lines based on the current trend.
Perfectly understandable. One of the reasons I started thread.
It just baffles me that people are renaming and reselling free indicators for thousands of dollars, not to mention selling phony signals created using strategy from 1st Google page.
40  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends on: July 14, 2022, 10:29:27 PM
Hi palle11,

I've tried to append images to the post, using correct bb code, but it doesn't work. Seems there is some restriction for new accounts.

Let me clarify. This is not an indicator, like moving average, RSI or any other lagging indicator.
What you see on chart is 'prediction' for last 100 days.
Model was trained, and last 100 days were used as test for verification of performance - orange line is prediction and blue one is actual price.

It is predictive model that outputs forecast for x amount of days into the future, it doesn't smooth and recalculate price like moving average, etc.
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