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Consistent sideways action usually represents stability in a normal trade scenario, though in the case of bitcoin, such movements are always alarming. We are seeing demand in the market, while the supply from the miners’ has been steady. There needs to be a notable increase in the way that bitcoin is marketed among end-users. At this point, user adoption needs to be crossed above the rate of inflation. This theory supports a bull run which we haven’t seen lately.
The market’s steadiness meanwhile is daunting; we saw similar events unfold last year when the bitcoin price trended horizontally continuously after a shakeup from its 1000-something peak. The sideways movement eventually resulted in a crash. We reviewed the order books of multiple bitcoin exchanges and noticed that majority of the trades were hedged towards a fall to the lower 200s – perhaps predicting a shakeup in the coming weeks.
February 11th Bitcoin Trading Session
BTC/USD successfully retreated from the intraday bottom around the 214 mark, marking a slightly better day. The price meanwhile opened at around the 223 point, surrounded with all sorts of micro-trades to ensure a continuation in the prevailing consolidation. A small amount of sell-offs during the early hours brought the price to a low 219, but more influential buying orders later lifted the market towards the north. The price continues to trend peacefully around the 221-224 area while trading volume remains to be lower than usual.
What to Expect Today?
Today, the market is displaying the same sideways consolidation, changing nothing for a long-term outcome. Due to a small amount of micro-buying orders in last few hours, the near-term landscape for bitcoin has changed to bullish. As you can see the 4H Bitfinex chart above, the price clearly has its head towards the north, attempting go above the 200-H SMA (the purple curve).
In the meantime, the technical indicators are also suggesting a near-term bull run. The MACD blue curve is going missionary on the saffron signal line; the RSI is hoping to float above 50 – a neutral bullish region; while the price is clearly above the 50-H SMA curve (the black line).
To extend its bullish correction further, the price needs to break above the 233-resistance level. If it does, the pressure could rise once again towards the 248-250 area. Failing to do so will bring the 210 bottom back in sight, while it is likely that the market will continue to bounce like a ball between these two ultimate thresholds.
Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Bullish-Neutral
Moving Averages: Neutral (6 Buy 6 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Buy (3 Buy 0 Sell 8 Neutral)
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Shorting only makes sense if you do leverage, which at the same time leverage never makes sense because you can get on debt if things go against you.
Basically never short. Buy and hold. You require too much luck to win shorting. I dont believe in predicting the market, let alone small market noise.
I have a small 6 btc stash I trade futures with on okcoin @ 20:1 which I use for day trading. I have my long position on Bitfinex. I do agree you can get yourself into deep shit if your on the wrong side, but in this market currently it's to easy to make trades and gain a profit. I take profits out and funnel them back into Bitfinex. If you watch the market closely it's very easy to make gains. I think the main issue with leverage (I used to do this) is holding on to long and not taking profit. Before entering a position you need to establish when your going to get out and when the time comes you need to follow through with your exit. In some cases it's better to hold longer (coinbase pump is a good example). Also never go all into a position, I usually build my positions slowly constantly averaging out. You seem to know what you are doing. Using a stop loss feature also helps as you can set the price you are comfortable with without having to watch the bitcoin price every minute. Are you interested in giving Coinarch a try? I can give you free brokerage for 7 days so you get a feel for the system. Email me at kimberley.silva@coinarch.com if you are keen. |
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I'd say the best market move to make at the moment is to short w/ some heavy leverage since so many people are thinking in this subforum that the 100s of any flavor are a possibility. Smart money is smart amirite?
20x on OKCoin ought to do it, and don't pussy foot around trying to scalp on a 1$ movement. COMMIT. How does leverage work? For Bitfinex is like 3:3:1 or something like that, but I never did trade on margin, always using funds I had. Is it worth it, and what are its benefits/risks? Coinarch offer up to 10 times leverage. You can invest from US$10. If you think the price will increase you invest in a Long Booster, if you think the price will decrease you invest in a Short Booster. If you guess correctly you profit and if you guess incorrectly you lose your initial investment. Fore example, Our trader of the week invested a small $15 in a long booster with 8x leverage on the 1st of Feb when the bitcoin price was 214. He closed his position 2 days later when the bitcoin price had increased to 237 and made 81% profit. Had he invested the maximum of $1,250, he would have made $1012. The same principle applies to going short. Had he gone short, he would have lost $15 only. Hope this makes sense. |
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You shouldn't short near the bottom. You had the opportunities to short at $700, or $500, or $400, etc. You get the idea.
What makes you say this is the bottom? I expect BTC myself to go to mid $100's but hey who knows... I agree, I think it will go down further before it increases. |
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it could rise to 6k in the next 6 months for all we know...
yes, that's what people said in the beginning of 2014... I think after the halving , the price will surely rise. We have only to wait, and *hope*. Many people agree on this one, but even after the next halving, with bitcoin price at about 220$ , it would still require 400,000 $ new money each and every day too keep the price stabile. To be honest, i think that time for 10x profits on bitcoin is over, we all had our shots, some bought, some did not, same thing goes with profits. The best we can hope is another few months hype so we can sell >500$, and then again year or two of decline before another pump. Yes , this is obvious. We will never see again 1k dollars per bitcoin. The past bitcoin pump it was only an *high* chinese manipulation. I think the price will drop to around the 100 mark before it rises. The United States has doubled its quantitative easing, indicating yet another financial meltdown in coming years. This is reassuring for long term bitcoin holders as investors will be looking for other options to hedge their funds. As speculators believe, the demand of bitcoin will hit high during the economic slowdown. The bitcoin price surged 87% post-Cyprus bailout. I also think its an education thing, the more people that understand bitcoin, the better it is for adoption and the market. There has been a lot of recent hype and the bitcoin price has been playing on the back of PR. We need solid adoption. |
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Whilst the bitcoin market looks stable, traders desperately await a breakout. Since the beginning of February the price has been bouncing between 210 and 248, waiting for a near-perfect bearish breakout thanks to the absence of buying volume. At this time, we would like to take a look at other fundamental factors that could potentially affect the bitcoin value in the coming months, maybe years. Firstly, the United States has doubled its quantitative easing, indicating yet another financial meltdown in coming years. This is reassuring for long term bitcoin holders as investors will be looking for other options to hedge their funds. As speculators believe, the demand of bitcoin will hit high during the economic slowdown. The bitcoin price surged 87% post-Cyprus bailout. February 9th Bitcoin Trading Session BTC/USD opened at around 224 yesterday, continuing the prevailing sideways movement in the absence of enough trading volume. As the day moved ahead, the price began to stir a little towards the downside, probably due to shaky hands leaving the market. A sell-off occurred subsequently, dropping the price down to 215, right inside the oversold region, though above the 210 floor. The fall however failed to transform into a breakout, as price correction soon occurred and took price back inside the stable channels. At press time, the BTC/USD is valued around 220. What to Expect Today? As we review the chart, the technical indicators are once again inclined towards a bearish bias. The price is trading way below the 200-, 100- and 50-hour SMA while the RSI is stuck between the 43-47 area. The MACD blue curve is only a little below the normal line and has its head towards the south. We have drawn a red line, indicating the ultimate support point of the current bearish bias. If the price manages to break below this line, the pressure will once again fall on this year’s low of around 165. Once below, the price could tease even lower at the 100s. In the case where the bitcoin price manages to move upwards, there is a series of resistance levels waiting to send it back to the 210 support area. A near-term bull run is hoping to find intra-day resistance around 230, and then later at 248. Even though these levels have a lot of selling pressure, any possible break above them will extend the bullish correction towards the 275-300 area. Conclusion (On 1-D Charts) Current Mood: Strong Bearish Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 9 Sell 2 Neutral) Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell) https://www.coinarch.com/Info/Blog?Page=2015/02/daily-bitcoin-price-analysis-9th-february/ |
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I think it will. The bitcoin price hasn't moved much over the last 24 hours. It continues to trend relatively sideways, as trading volume continues to drop further. The movement illustrates cautiousness, but nonetheless, it looks like traders are simply waiting for a breakout towards either side. The upcoming waves will influence future trade positions. The future of bitcoin however seems bullish, thanks to the recent update from Benjamin Lawsky’s office regarding BitLicense. The NYSE-Coinbase partnership last week gave us an over reactive spike towards 315. Now if the market is in the mood to play yet another hype-game on upcoming events, we are surely looking at a bull run towards long-term key resistance levels. 320 perhaps! February 5th Bitcoin Trading Session: The BTC/USD opened at around 226 while continuing the prevailing sideways trend. During the day, the price seemed to be under a little influence of sellers, going downwards following little pushes. However, a big candle appeared out of nowhere after the 8th hour and price fell down around $10 within just four hours. It attempted a quick pullback in the name of correction and went on continuing the previous sideways trend - trading between a Bollinger band. At press time, the BTC/USD is valued around 216. What to Expect Today? The BTC/USD has been sliding downwards since the start of the year. It has once tested 165 as its lowest bottom. By looking at the current scenario, it seems like the price is once again going to retest the same bottom in the upcoming days. The technical indicators meanwhile are also indicating a rather stronger bearish bias in the market. As you see the 4H Bitfinex chart above, you’ll notice a near-perfect inverse Head-and-Shoulder forming; imperfect because the right shoulder looks quite weak at this point of time. This simply means the price is targeting some more downward movements, possibly to retest 200, maybe 165 at worst case. To regain the lost bullish momentum, price would be focusing on breaking the neckline around 245 at this point in time. In the last few hours, the BTC/USD has already tested the 210 bottom successfully, and its arrow is now pointing upwards. A smooth correction however depends on the buying volume. Traders may long towards 245 at press time. But the extension of bullish momentum could only be confirmed once price breaks above the 320 upside risk. It’s a long shot. A drop below 165 meanwhile signals a bearish breakout where price may even go as low as 100. Conclusion (On Daily Charts) Current Mood: Strongly Bearish Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 7 Sell 4 Neutral) Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell) Visit the Coinarch Blog for more bitcoin news: https://www.coinarch.com/Info/Blog?Page=2015/02/daily-bitcoin-price-analysis-5th-february/ |
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Yesterday’s session saw a notable improvement in the bitcoin market landscape, with the market continuing its prevailing near-term bull trend. The ‘slow and steady’ rather than explosive nature of the uptrend is evidence of cautious traders, with many a bullish hand bitten over the last few days chasing rallies which never really fully formed. Despite the positive signs, we still expect the bullish trends to fade and the market to correct on the downside in the near future. February 3rd Bitcoin Trading Session After spiking from a low of 211 in the previous sessions to 248, the bitcoin price held its high ground for some time yesterday as it threatened the psychologically important 250 level. This optimism gave way later in the day, however, when a number of short sellers brought the price down to 225. At press time, the price is still trending in a near-term bullish correction, hoping to break above the 250-255 support area. What to Expect Today? The bitcoin price is so far looking comfortable on its bullish run. The MACD (blue) sits well above the normal line and signal curve (saffron), the RSI is neutral at around 55 and is waiting to establish stronger bullish momentum above 60 and the 12 hour EMA sits well above the 26 hour EMA. This points to bullish sentiment prevailing in the market, though this may be short lived unless key resistance levels are breached. We expect a downward correction to appear soon if the bitcoin price fails to break through the 250-255 area. If this eventuates, we expect a price reversal towards the 210 range, a level at which the double bottom at 165 is firmly in sight. If, on the other hand, the price breaks through the 250 - 255 resistance level, we see the potential for the current bullish sentiment to push the price all the way up to 275 - the next resistance level. Conclusion (On Daily Charts) Current Mood: Bearish Moving Averages: Sell (4 Buy 8 Sell) Technical Indicators: Sell (3 Buy 4 Sell 4 Neutral) Do you agree or disagree with the predictions and why? https://www.coinarch.com/Info/Blog?Page=2015/02/daily-bitcoin-price-update-3rd-february/ |
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The bitcoin price fell to test the $230 support line yesterday, with little movement over the last 24 hours. We have seen a lot of interesting and positive news surrounding bitcoin in the last week or so, with the Winklevoss Twins creating their own regulated bitcoin exchange, CNBC’s report that ‘bitcoin is done with its tumultuous teen years”, Tim Draper investing another $400,000 in bitcoin, Coinbase announcing their US regulated bitcoin exchange, and finally, Bill Clinton’s statement “Digital currency can help the poor, but not bitcoin”.
Whilst the saying “any press is good press’ sounds great in theory, it hasn’t necessarily reflected positively on the bitcoin price.
January 29th Bitcoin Trading session
The BTC/USD opened at 235 on the 4H Bitfinex chart, dropping to 220 at one point then rebounding back up, just past 230 hours later. By studying the 4 hour Bitfinex (BTC/USD) chart, we can see that the red downtrend line is still above the blue uptrend line, which is synchronizing with the current bearish trend. We will see a reversal of the bearish trend if we see an increase of 4 or more successive bullish candles on the 1 hour charts and more so if the blue uptrend line crosses over the red downtrend line.
At press time, the BTC/USD is priced around 232
What to expect today?
We can see that the bitcoin price stopped falling after reaching levels near the $230 support line. The long shadow of the candlestick reflects how the 230 support line is preventing the price from dropping further.
We still believe that the near future will show a reversal of the recent bearish trend; It might be worth waiting for signals of a bullish wave before investing in a long booster. We hope the price does not drop below 200 though there is still a chance.
Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (2 Buy 10 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Buy (7 Buy 1 Sell 3 Neutral)
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That's quite a list, I can say I've been to a few of those. Good job.
Hi, Have you had the chance to trade with Coinarch and if so what was your experience like? |
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Stay on top of the Bitcoin market with these helpful websites: BitcoinWisdom: Live charts with indicators, different exchanges Bitcoinity: Live charts and order book visualization of different exchanges Tradingview: Live chart + indicators, different exchanges Bitcoincharts: Live prices for different exchanges, historical price charts with indicators and order books BTC Charts: Live order book visualization, different exchanges Bitcoin Analytics: Live charts and order books, different exchanges (paid version) ZeroBlock: Live charts and order books, different exchanges (paid version) SierraChart: Live chart feed for different exchanges for SierraChart program Cryptonica: Live order book for Bitstamp Blockchain.info: Stats, variety of charts Bitcoinx: Prices, various stats and charts blockchained.com: Prices, various stats and charts Coinsight: Historical order book sums, different exchanges Suggestions to add more welcome. You can also subscribe to Coinarch for our Daily Bitcoin Price Update - here is today's 28th of January https://live-blog-en.coinarch.com/index.php/2015/01/daily-bitcoin-price-update-28th-january/ |
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The fundamentals at this time suggest a big rebound is very unlikely
 Please tell me more how Bitcoin is dead/dying. I don't personally think bitcoin is dying, just engaging in the hype. Anyone who went long recently when the bitcoin price rocketed to 300 would have made a nice profit. What do you think will be the next resistance? |
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i was shocked when i saw 200$ price at first, and the first thing that came to my mind was that it might be a good opportunity to buy. but now i am not that sure
Anyone that had of invested in a long position at $200 would have made a nice profit if they closed at the recent $300. Did you buy and sell or stay? P.S if you are thinking about keeping your bitcoins though want to earn interest there is a product where you can profit in a flat market. https://www.coinarch.com/en/Info/MaximiserOverviewRead the case studies which explain the product further. |
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It won't go much lower than $250. The year long falling wedge is close to completion. This will signal a bull run.
Sitting below 250 as we speak |
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Yesterday was a huge day for traders, with many making a lot of money by going short on the bitcoin price and the leveraging to maximise their profits.
We saw a spike in trade volume on the Coinarch website.
What exchanges allow shorting? btc-e has MetaTrader allowing 3x leverage + shorting. Heck you can even run bots on it. bitfinex also supposedly allows leveraging up to 10x. 3.3:1 on BFX. Shorting makes money fast, but it can also backfire. I advise anyone in this thread asking "How does that work?" to do some research before playing around with leveraged margin trading. You can make profits 3x as fast but you can also lose 3x as fast. Learn it before you try. Coinarch offer up to 8x leverage on short and long positions. The difference with our platform is you will only lose as much as you invest. For new traders, if you think the bitcoin price will go increase and you invest US$10 in a long booster with 8x leverage, you are ultimately investing $80. If the bitcoin price was to increase by 50% you would make $40. However if the bitcoin price falls below the strike you would only lose US$10, not US$80. Hopefully this makes sense. Therefore you wont lose 8x leverage See long example here https://www.coinarch.com/en/Info/BoosterLongPosition |
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Can someone please explain to me how this works? I want to know.
Hi, you can make money when the bitcoin price rises or falls using leverage products. If you think the bitcoin price is going to fall, you would go short with leverage. Here is an example https://www.coinarch.com/en/Info/BoosterShortPosition. However, if the bitcoin price rises and rises past the strike you will lose your original investment. The same works for if you think the bitcoin price will rise, you would go long, see example here https://www.coinarch.com/en/Info/BoosterLongPositionIf you are keen on trading - register on Coinarch using Kimba as the invite code and I will give you free brokerage for 7 days. Let me know if you need any support. |
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After rising stupendously on Coinbase euphoria, the bitcoin market failed to sustain on and above its peak level - around $314 on Bitfinex. As a result, the price is now attempting bearish corrections while trading near a pre-spike level. Meanwhile, the trading volume has dropped by 100,000 BTC in over the last 24 hours.
The charts certainly indicate that the previous sharp rally was nothing but a price overreaction, where few rich traders took the Coinbase news as granted to create a bullish hype. They certainly dumped their coins when the price hit the peak, and the buying panic came to rest eventually.
January 28th Bitcoin Trading Session
The BTC/USD opened at around 258 on the 4H Bitfinex chart, floating right above its key support level around 255. For the first few hours, there was almost no movement in the market due to unsubstantial trading volume. But a few hours later we saw a huge dump take place that subsequently brought the price near the next support around 240. As you can see in the chart below, the price has clearly fallen into a selling channel and is now struggling to rebound amidst a huge selling pressure.
At press time, the BTC/USD is priced around 226
What to Expect Today?
The technical indicators on a 4H chart are predicting a neutral scenario for bitcoin. If we look at the chart above, there was a near-term bullish flag forming where the price was sandwiched between the 255-support and 275-resistance level. The trend however shifted towards bears after a series of huge sell offs, as a result, the price is struggling to float above the 240-support area.
The RSI has dropped near 40, clearing a selling area. Meanwhile, the MACD has also crashed below the signal line due to the heavy sell-offs in the last hours, marking it as the end of the previous bullish rally. The downward velocity is clearly visible, this may take price to lower 200s. Even after a strong rally this week, a bearish bias still haunts the bitcoin market. For now, just watch out for the 240 mark which could also initiate a short rally towards the prevailing resistance level around 265-275 area.
Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (2 Buy 10 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Buy (7 Buy 1 Sell 3 Neutral)
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Yesterday was a huge day for traders, with many making a lot of money by going short on the bitcoin price and the leveraging to maximise their profits.
We saw a spike in trade volume on the Coinarch website.
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