So, is this a proper breakout over 100 or just another temporary blip before the next plunge? If 100 doesn't hold, it will be interesting to see if we fall back to above or below 90 (EDIT: changed from Bitstamp value!). If it does hold, it could mean we are entering a bull market. I'm standing by my bet of us still being in a bear market for a few more months yet, but I'm finding it hard to predict where it is going to go currently. Perhaps that is because we are getting close to the bottom (or have passed it!  )? EDIT: BTW, take a look at the chart from mid-June. 100 was a support for two rallies which failed to breach 115. 115 was the support level for much of May.  |
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i don't get why it's okay to sell a speculative item like say, a trading card or an online game item, but selling a bitcoin is so drastically different?
i suppose you have a lot more volume when working with bitcoins
Statism frequently ends up using arbitrary threats. There is little in the way of principles guiding such laws - it's just 'might is right', with some lobbying thrown in. |
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Has anyone noticed how little volatility there is at Bitstamp compared to MtGox at the moment? Bitstamp:  MtGox:  P.S. It looks like BitStamp just took a mini nose dive... |
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someone is laughing at single digit believers. And me too  BTC velocity would have to drastically increase for single digits to be viable at this stage, IMO. At single digits, the available BTC wouldn't store enough value to be able to support payments. This is the reason you can effectively ignore the single digit argument -- Bitcoin would have to completely fail as a payment medium, or all the speculators would have to go away, in order for us to get there. i know, but its good you said this because people tend to froget about this or maybe still don't understand. I wonder also how long it would be for double digits to be gone for good. Maybe it's not that far away considering new and new entities starting to accept bitcoin each day. :-) It's also why the $10K valuations aren't as ridiculous as they sound -- try plugging in, say, 10% of visa volume into the equation :-) Of course we have a Tx limit to deal with first though... My missus (economist) was initially convinced BTC would fail simply because there aren't enough of them...  I don't think any short/medium term bears would argue with that bullish position in the long term. The question is whether this bubble with fully correct before increased adoption begins to push up the price again. |
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I think you need to zoom out a bit further...  ya if you zoom out more you can see the smart money take good positions early the volume we got on the way down from 266 tho was Crazy!  bitcoin Well, there was a lot of stupid money exiting those same positions that the smart money was buying into - we always have sellers to match the buyers after all. The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later? |
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...  as you can see, their wasnt very much $ volume on the way up But their is a FUCK load on $$ volume on the way down. I would expect to see volume lvl off for a while, bitcoin gets kinda boarding then a year later, bitcoin its 3 times the size it is today  I think you need to zoom out a bit further... |
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Translation: "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."
I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations. Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern. I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there. There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces. If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost. I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals. There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes. Good post, but I would add that it isn't just the current chart which is bearish; there is a common theme to all bubbles. Bubbles are essentially malinvestment, fuelled by irrational hype/panic, which pushes the price way beyond where the fundamentals would otherwise leave it. Whether it is tulips, shares, houses or Bitcoins, it doesn't really make much difference. Those who are bearish in the short/medium term are likely scholars of the many previous bubbles which are littered throughout history. Ofc, the trick is knowing where the price forms a floor. How much more is Bitcoin worth now than January, when the bubble started forming? Considering it was about $15, is it worth twice that now? 3 times that much? More? How much has changed since January to justify this? If the answer is 'not a lot', then don't be surprised to see the price continue to tumble. Personally, I think Bitcoin has gathered more momentum and it has survived another dangerous bubble. I'm unconvinced that it is worth more than 6 times what it was just 8 months ago though - maybe 2-4 as a gut feeling, though. |
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That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though? I doubt they would hit the block chain. While you are trading at an exchange, you're just playing with numbers in the exchange's database. It's only when fiat/BTC are withdrawn that any action occurs. That said, I'm sure you will get some people who withdraw all of their trading BTC each night for safe keeping. |
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If your libertarian romantic ever plays out I rather think we are facing the extinction of the human race.
Why would rejecting institutionalised violence cause the extinction of the human race? Are peaceful people incapable of functioning without being threatened from day to day? Institutional violence is just a result of urbanization, the entire population is urbanized, and dependent of the financial system to keep them from dying from starvation. IF you are serious start a farm. Eh? You don't need institutional violence in order to have a financial system. Why would you think otherwise? |
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If your libertarian romantic ever plays out I rather think we are facing the extinction of the human race.
Why would rejecting institutionalised violence cause the extinction of the human race? Are peaceful people incapable of functioning without being threatened from day to day? |
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...they are buying BTC to transfer and sell ... they still want dollars, they just want to get them out of the country as soon as possible without using suitcases.
... Thanks love it. Don't get me wrong ... there *ought* to come a time when nobody wants dollars. But when that will be is anyone's guess. TPTB will do everything they can to prop up the house of cards for as long as possible. For the last ten years Japanese Gov Bonds have traded at ridiculously low yields ( = high price) and many have tried to call the turn and short them, seeing the situation as unsustainable (which it is ultimately). The trade has become known as 'The Widow Maker' due to the number of people who have crashed and burnt trying to call the turn. Unrealistic and unsustainable valuations can last for a very long time, defying all logic and fundamental analysis. That said, the moment of truth would appear to be approaching IMO ... just don't bet the house quite yet One reason you need fiat is to pay off the thugs state. If you don't, they start to threaten people with guns and cages. While ever there is taxation requested in state fiat, there can be no free market for currency. However, that doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't thrive. It just means there are reasons why people need state fiat. |
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interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.
People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.
Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth? If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being. That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you. of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes. We have history as our guide. While it doesn't repeat perfectly, there are often similarities. This is why observing charts is useful. We know with a reasonable probability that certain formations will lead to certain results. Will you get it right every time? Of course not. To ignore patterns and probabilities and to claim that it is pure guess work is not a valid assertion though. |
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IAS, I think we will definitely visit the '50s but I'm not sure if it will happen so fast as in your extrapolation. My impression is that we have entered a "slowish" phase, and I don't expect impulsive moves downwards for the moment, just sideway trading + a few dumps that will gradually take us down for a while, mixed up with bounces and traps.
Regarding the SatoshiDice thing, I'm honestly not expecting big dumping by the shareholders who received the monies. My guess is that the big dump related to the SD buyout already happened, insiders dumped before the thing hit the news, as usual in both BTC and FIAT world - and that IMO explains at least partially the dump that took us to the '80s from the high '90s.
The dumping of SD shareholders don't seem to me like a probable bearapocalypse, what really intrigues me is when the SD buyer bought his +100k coins. Did he bought in the last weeks? In the last months? +100k are big volume, and I wonder how much of the big moves upwards triggered in the last weeks are direct consequence of the buying of the new owner of SD. If he did most of the buying in the last weeks, and thus is responsible of the impulsive move upwards from $66 to $104, I think the lack of buying pressure will be much more relevant than the eventual "dumping" of SD ex-shareholders.
That would be compatible with a long period of consolidation, typical with a post bubble correction scenario. If it is true, it will give bears a long time to pick their moment to buy. In fact, until this blow off phase occurs, I suspect there will still be further for the price to fall. |
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interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.
People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.
Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth? If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being. That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you. |
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It looks like we have a short term triple top forming. This is particularly clear on Bitstamp.
I suspect we will see another big drop (testing the last low) in price later today.
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So gentlemen, what will be the lowest point in this cycle? 55? 50? Lower? Will we touch the 40s?
I'm going to wait and see, but I suspect we will hit lower lows (65 @ bitstamp) than during the last cycle.
if the trend reversed already then it may not be lower than $80 Ok, you're predicting $80 then? Anyone else? |
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So gentlemen, what will be the lowest point in this cycle? 55? 50? Lower? Will we touch the 40s?
I'm going to wait and see, but I suspect we will hit lower lows (65 @ bitstamp) than during the last cycle.
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Isn't it bullish that some company pays the equivalent of +$10M for a Bitcoin gambling site? Also, as the buyout is done in Bitcoin, won't this result in buying pressure? (or is the buyout amount secured already?)
I wouldn't mistake long term bullishness for short term cycles. Almost everyone here is bullish long term or we wouldn't be here at all. The question is, what is happening over the next days/weeks/months, IMO. |
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What is the target buy price then, gentlemen?
I'm thinking high 50s at the highest, but suspect at least low 50s will be challenged within the next few weeks.
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Is there any bad news I missed?
No, just the bull trap closing. When will people realize that we had very good news for the last weeks, but still the price goes down because price is driven by price action itself? I rarely bother considering actual events while trading. Sure, they can be trigger events, but cyclic movement seems to count for more in the short/medium term. |
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