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The day that happens is the day that American global control ends. It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 10-20 years.
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I remember reading somewhere that the rich get rich investing other people's money. Trading on margin is the same thing. If you've got a strategy that is working for you, being able to add 20x leverage to that allows you to grow your holdings that much more. Then when you pay it back, your profits are greater.
10% of 1BTC is cool.
10% of 20BTC is better.
10% of 200BTC is even better.
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Credit cards are already being hacked and we don't see people flocking to bitcoin. Maybe that's because they don't know or maybe it's because it isn't convenient. Adoption will come when businesses realize that it is in their best interest to pay bills using bitcoin. That'll decrease fees and allow for more cash to be deployed investing in other projects.
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I have just started lending it out to other traders. So far, the one person I lent to has an impeccable record with paying back her loans. I'll get 6% after a one month investment. Do that 12 times a year and you've effectively grown your bitcoin by 72%. Naturally there are risks, but these P2P lending sites are getting good at building a good dossier on the borrowers.
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I find what a lot of people are saying here very interesting. "The next time it hits 1,000, it won't have been pumped." I agree with that statement. I think that bitcoin experienced some insane price increases because it was getting pumped. Everyone thought "to the moon." But then that bubble popped. It happens.
However, what is interesting to me is that we are going to experience some pain for a while, but then it will start to grow more organically and then surpass those previously reached levels. So I'm interested in seeing what happens.
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I earned the bitcoin doing freelance writing. I haven't actually bought any, but I'm holding them for the long term.
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More money needs to get into bitcoin for the volatility to decrease. When the volatility decreases, merchants will start to use it more. When that happens, demand will rise. Supply stays constant or drops. Price rises.
Now where to get that more money ... Oh yes, Wall Street. One VC I spoke with told me, "there's not a single hedge fund that doesn't have bitcoin on its white board." They want to invest; they're ready to invest. They just need the correct tool. And I think those tools are coming. When that happens, price is going to stabilize, and I think grow.
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Someone in the thread made the point about every round number being a psychological one. When the price hits $300 again, it'll drop some, but then if it breaks $300, it'll rise to $400, and then drop some. Making some basic trades on this to grow a larger position. Start with bitcoin at $250, it rises to $300, sell it, it drops to $275, you buy, it rises to $300, sell it, it drops to $275, you buy, it rises to $400, you sell, it drops to $350, you buy. Each time, you're growing the total number of bitcoin you have on the same investment.
Naturally, it's hard to time these things. But you can analyze previous "round numbers" to get an idea. People like clean numbers. It's why people will leave $5.08 on a $20.92 credit card bill just so they can round up. It makes no difference, but hey ... It makes them feel better.
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The idea that Wall Street has the ability to change the rules of bitcoin is ludicrous. Just because they might pump a lot of money into bitcoin, invest in companies, and buy actual coins doesn't mean they can suddenly start changing the rules. The rules are part of the code and the only way to change that is to gain consensus. Since I don't see Wall Street turning on mining operations, I have little concerns about them "trying to change anything."
Does that mean that they won't wait to work with exchanges that are properly regulated? Of course they will. But that's not a bitcoin problem; that's a locality problem.
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Bitcoin itself can't be centralized, I agree. But the services on top of it very easily can. We can see it with the largest wallet providers growing even bigger. We can see it with mining becoming centralized. While the ledger will always remain decentralized, I can't help but see human nature wanting other things to centralize. And I wonder why that is...
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Some of the early "leaders" in bitcoin have hurt it some. I was at an event yesterday and a Wall Street guy said, "people are afraid...We've got a lot of work to clean up where these early guys screwed up."
Exactly. While I think that the acceptance of Bitcoin has reached a tipping point where legit institutions will eventually deal in it, right now there is huge reluctance because of all the scammy associations that rise out of silk road (just plain illegal), Gox (incredibly stupid or incredibly crooked, doesn't matter, either way is bad), Butterfly, and dozens of imploded exchanges. Facing facts, if you were going to investigate the prospects for opening a Bitcoin business right now from a businessman's perspective, you'd be noticing that Bitcoin exchanges have a tendency to go broke in a spectacular way losing a lot of money they'd been trusted with. And given that apparent risk, it just doesn't seem like a good idea to get into that business. Now, if the apparent risk is really illusory, and the string of failures has been caused by incompetence or crooked behavior, then the real risk isn't nearly that bad. Which, you know, is what we all hope. And that's why the whole scene needs to be "rehabilitated" with honest and competent businessmen accumulating a much better track record than these early unregulated and largely incompetent-at-business people have done, before the wall street guys can sell investors on it. And I definitely think we are getting there. The businesses that are coming out now have a lot of VC funding, are able to hire top notch engineers that can ACTUALLY keep things secure, and are saying the right things. I wasn't part of bitcoin when Mt.Gox occurred, but I can't imagine trusting one guy with all my bitcoin. One guy who was in control of everything. But I guess hindsight really is 20/20. |
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To start off, I understand that the blockchain is, by its very nature, decentralized. So I'm not talking about the core software that is bitcoin. I wanted to that out of the way. In the latest issue of my newsletter, I started to think about something that I had noticed occurring in the bitcoin ecosystem that reminds me of other events that have taken place in the past. And it left me with a question: is centralization inevitable? Why do we have so many big banks? Why is Coinbase growing larger and larger? Why is the mining pool getting more centralized? Why did 70% of the total number of bitcoin wind up being held at MtGox? For a technology that is so great and so decentralized, there are so many people that naturally start moving toward a centralized service provider. Is this just because humanity likes to be centralized with someone else to make the tough decisions? Or is there some other reason that even with a technology that is supposed to be decentralized, things are becoming centralized? I'd love to hear your thoughts. |
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That's the power of a decentralized system. There are so many small machines that, when they combine together, become way more powerful than fewer large machines. It's what contributes to bitcoin's stability.
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so the price will start to rise at the end of summer basically? around august? as far as i remember was never raised during the summer
The last few months have been a hard lesson in taking any 'historical' BTC data remotely seriously. It'll be made up as it's going along for a long time to come. I've never really understood the 'sell in may and go away' thing. That makes humans sound like herd animals who migrate to the Antarctic to rut and then return to the internet in autumn. Still, it's a predecent but a deeply weird one. I mean ... We are animals and we do behave in predictable fashion. Wealthy investors like to spend their time on their yachts in the summer. Their kids are home. It's about spending those millions. Then when Autumn returns, it's about replenishing the bank account. |
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There are two ways to calculate risk. And for easy math, let's say you bought 5 coins. The first is to calculate actual money lost. In this case, the potential is that you will lose $1,000. The other is to calculate missed opportunity. If bitcoin were to rise to $1,000 a coin again, you would be sitting on $5,000 for a grand total of $4,000 in profit.
The average person goes, "but I could lose $1,000!" The savvy person goes, "but I missed out on $4,000 profit." When deciding when to invest in something, it is important to look at both numbers to weigh the risk/reward ratio. And, like you, I believe that the reward far surpasses the risk. If I lose the $1,500 I have in bitcoin right, I'll make it back in a week in another investment. But if bitcoin were to rise like I anticipate it to rise, the rewards will be plentiful.
Smart logic. Welcome back!
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The "rumor" that I heard about 21 was that it was going to be an Internet of Things company for bitcoin mining. So your thermostat suddenly becomes a miner. It doesn't seem feasible (difficulty would go off the chart), but who knows?
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I see no correlation between bitcoin and oil. Nor do I see oil rising to an all time high in the next few weeks. It took a few months to get down here and it's going to take as long, if not longer, to get back to the $100s that oil has enjoyed.
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Maybe Mark just didn't want to notice that they were all missing. He could make as much money as possible for as long as possible before anyone caught on.
Some of the early "leaders" in bitcoin have hurt it some. I was at an event yesterday and a Wall Street guy said, "people are afraid...We've got a lot of work to clean up where these early guys screwed up."
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Bitcoin is very hard to regulate when you think of it globally. Bitcoin is very easy to regulate when you think of it nationally. What I mean by that is that if I have my bitcoin and I need to convert it to fiat for whatever reason, that can be regulated aggressively. But if I just want to send my bitcoin around the world, that's much harder to regulate.
The fact that the UK wants to become a hub for bitcoin development is a really wonderful opportunity. Other countries should look to the UK and try to emulate it because advances in financial technology will only make us all far better off.
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This is fine if you have a lot of money to manipulate the markets. If you're a small time trader, it's more important to pay attention to the trends and try to hold hands with the trader. Right now, I wonder if there is advanced enough technology for us to really track it all.
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