by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take  1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

Its Monday morning here where i live and my mind is at its full power. turning it to g0od use I have created the "penguin" in honour of Adam who cretaed this thread which has been very successful and intersting in so many ways.

penguin is a new system of measurement. It is 1000 pages of thsi topic. So at present "time' is currently 15.163. Time zero was back when the topic was started. Unlike normal time this has a nice up and down feature that reflects bitcoin discussion.(Sort of version of space time)

if there are lots of discussion then we are at a new full penguin faster and vice versa. Currently a penguin is created about evey 100 days on average.

Typical data reporting will therefore be as follows (this are actauls by the way).

At 15 penguin:
Bicoin has grwon from penguin zero penguin by 14.1% compoundedso usign this would make the price of bitcoin at 16 penguin (late May?)  $485
Bitcoin has grwon over the last 3 penguins ie 12-15 by 20% compounded.  (so 16 penguin price will be $510)

Can we adopt this asap.

I am now going for a nap now until 15.1634 penguin

you are not the only one. I am also concerned. I like bitcoin and its still has many uses (eg buying, transmiting it and the new owner cashing out as the price of bitcoin is effectively irrelevant ) But what it has finished with chinese control is any hope of bitcoin being a store of value. Not sure what that means for more adoption by newcomers but it can only to me mean far fewer and many cureent holders reducing their holdings over time.

i think there are in theory alot of possibilities but do not know the tech detail enough about smart contracts but below is what I want to do.

in my country one agency has the monopoly on sports betting.

I and many others like longer term bets eg betting on the outcome of an event say 6 months out eg Formula 1 or the local football league.
the agency will sell a bet 6 months out but if it is to be on sold to someone else it must be sold for its face value ie $20 (as a second hand good) other wise it is creating a new bet which is illegal ie they can take you to court.

say I bet $20 for an expected payout of $200. closer the event my bet looks very likely to 'win" so I might like to sell it for say $100. I make $80 (guaranteed) and the new owner of the betting slip will make $100 if it wins. the bets at that time from the agency might be a payout of only $150 for a $100 bet so the buyer of my bet also gets a good deal by buying my bet.
currently however I would have to sell it to the person for $20 so the transaction does not take place.

can smart contracts make this work so that neither the buyer, seller of intermediary (eg an exchange) can get found or even if found show that what they have done is not create a new bet?

thanks

I very much doubt its $300. have seen on this forum a recent guess of $200+/-$50 and i still think this may be high. nobody knows what deals the chinese govt is giving directly or indirectly to miners so their effective costs could be very small ie less than say $100.

The halving may clarify things a bit. If the reward is 50% of what it was and the mining effort stays the same then maybe their costs are less than say $180?

time will tell

as i understand it,  it is adapted from boxing.
essentially anyone that wants to make something stop or change direction or punish etc hits the target in a planned and very heavy way and it usually is very effective at getting the outcome they want. just as in boxing if you hit your opponent with 4 consecutive punches in a matter of seconds you will have them in real trouble.

I have experienced drugs and porn but have never owned or worn alpaca socks. Since you used "and" between the three items can I assume 2 out of 3 lets me off the hook ie I remain a gentleman and a bitcoin user. (disclaimer - I have woollen socks from sheep and a 50;50 wool/possum blend but I see alpaca as a bridge too far)

I think that different models might develop to suit different payment methods. The old fashioned but goodie "subscription' comes to mind. ie if you really like the artist and what to support them why not subscribe for say $30 and get xyz for 'free as part of the subscription. I also do not think the ability to make small/micro  payments is what bitcoin is really all about. It might work for some types etc but that is a side benefit and not fundemental

yes as Andreas said in one of the links posted here there is nothing to really worry about with many players - core, classic, etherum etc - it is just the market coming up with different ways of operating .

It is just that we have had a single market player for so long it seems odd.
interesting that the bitcoin price is not being hit by these new (possible) changes. Not sure that shows they understand them and percieve little risk or that they are waiting for an actual definite outcome before buying/selling. But considering the price reaction to hearn's comments a while back it is odd there is so little movement?

I get very confused by all the different views of fee growth/block size  etc.

It seems to me to be to fairly straightforward in terms of my use of bitcoin.

I have bitcoins for 2 reasons
1. as a store of value
2. to make transfers to other people in other countries and to also make transfers to companies (to buy things).

I like small or no fees but to protect the system and reward those protecting it I am quite happy to pay up to the amount that is just less than an alternative
eg for transfers say what Western Union charges which is say $20
eg for purchases it may also be about $20 (say 1% on purchases over $200)

So being selfish as an individual always is I do not care about the block size just what that result is in terms of effect on me both in terms of security and cost.

I do not think we have to worry about for example millions/billions coming out of China to get around capital controls - the rich in any country will be allowed to do it without bitcoin and make a % cut assisting the middle class to do the same.

We should be making fee and size decisions on the little guy first. he/she is after all an existing not a potential/doubtful user.

What say all?

yes they have been very successful pumpers - they got the price up from abut $300 to $450 very quickly so why would they not do it again? And begin reasonably soon - yes within 30 days would also be very likely.

Bitcoin might go much lower but if you buy small quantities now daily your av price might for them be say $320? within 30 days. So  if they can repeat the trick of a $400 plus price in 2-3 months you will do handsomely (ie make 25%.)

This is wrong. Have you not been watching the news? This is spreading everywhere like a wildfire.
[/quote]

hearns views have been known for a long time he has just in this latest outpouring written a much better 'selling' of his views. It does not make them any more right or wrong.

I repeat the price to $450 was pumped and all that hearn and/or crypsy or whatever has dome may have triggered something to stop the pumping get accepted by people . But it is a sell off from a pump so it means nothing longer term for bitcoin.

while bitcoin needs to address a range of issues and some fairly soon far as to the current drop in price goes - as the Police would say ....move along.... nothing to see here

any big change in price is not so much due to one person - a hearn or karpeles- or one thing - scaling issues though they be trigger points but simply pumping and then drops. Just 3 months ago the price was $271 and it went to about $450 on no real good news of any sort - that is just pumping .. So inevitably there will be dumping yet where we are now ($366) is still $90 above $271. It could easily now go to say $250 but even then we have just returned to the price 3 months ago ie a $250 price would not be new nor special

 

according to the figures I see bitcoin is down 9.67%in USD but only 6.76% in CNY. Is such a gap usual?

yes it is not so long ago that "volatility" was a much talked about topic on this thread but the $200-$300 "long" period killed it off. I happen to think manipulators stopped it going down below $200 and so it 'appeared' as though volatility was less. Now that they seem to be happy with a price over $300  they have left bitcoin to ride a lot more and hence when we have a bit of a minor panic like now we will get to a period of 10% or more changes in price in a short time (ie days).. the old normal is back.

are you sure?. we have has dodgey issues with dealers before - the biggest being Gox so whther not they have had coins stolen or its an inside job as some suggest it is just same day, differnt entity.

but the hearn thing is a bit more closer to home. its not whether or not what he is saying is true or whether he has private benefits to gain by all the gloomy talk - its that he is saying he is out. I am still new to bitcoin but it seems he has been a believer and working for bitcoin for some time so its  bit like a Patriots player leaving saying no chance of an NFL win or a Brazil player saying they cannot win the World Cup again.

Its unsettling. And I bet the price will not like it.  Get ready for some decent volitility as some sell all or partly and others rush in believing that has provided "cheap" coins

I am intersted in the bit where he talks about reversing payments. is what he seems to be saying actually true? if the seller of the goods waits for say 4 confirms does that not still protect him. if it is going to be common place for reversals (double spend) then people will always opt for credit cards and the protection they provide and not move to using bitcoin as much?

yes I have always failed to understand why it seems to be blasphemous in the bitcoin world to say you should pay for it to work (or pay more for it to work faster for you etc). If I want to send bitcoin to someone i want it to get there reasonably quickly and am prepared to pay more for the time to be shortened. I am old enough to remember when you had a sea mail (overland) and airmail choice at the post office. It worked fine. If people who are running the system that makes the transfer work/secure etc should they not be rewarded?

If there is a consensus? that the poor or some other group needs assistance to offset any costs then that should be done by grant/subsidy to them or some other way. It should not be through the system itself. It just creates secondary issues/problems for all

yes you are quite correct. you would come out much better off and your buying pattern in $ is more normal. However I did it this way to show even looking at it from a very bad angle (using bitcoins) the outcome is fine. That should convince even the doomsayers to get out and buy and we need both the optimists and pessimists to be buyers.

I think the current $450 price might well be enough to act as a tipping point for the cautious to start buying and holding.

We have wanted people to buy regularly but to date the outcomes have been very choppy. Now bitcoin has been around long enough that the numbers show that it is a very good thing to do even with some choppiness.

Lets say you buy just 1 bitcoin a year on your birthday which is 30 November ( the date of the gox ath so the “worst’ date possible to buy).

below is the average price you will have paid for your bitcoins if you started in 2010, then 2011 etc, The number in brackets is the number of bitcoins you would have.

$315(6)
$378(5)
$472(4)
$626(3)
$376(2)
$376(1)

So:
starting in 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 your av bitcojn cost price is below the current price.
starting in 2012 you are roughly breaking even
starting in 2013 you are in a loss


if bitcoin stays $450+ for a few years then even with the very unlucky start date in 2013 you might come out ok.

the lesson here it seems to me is that historically buying bitcoin has been a good  investment aside from the other benefits that bitcoin offers.