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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shorts on Bitfinex at a all time high! on: April 19, 2015, 09:27:45 PM
To close out those shorts coins have to be bought back. They have around 20K coins on finex for sell. It was a joke about million dollar coins, but just wanted to point out there are more shorts than can be closed. Or am I missing something?

If I borrow something and sell it, and then I have to buy back in able to return what I sold but there isn't enough out there no matter the price, what do I do?

Also, I don't need bitcoin to be above 300. I want as many coins as possible, shorters are helping me accumulate. But seeing the order books I would not short myself.

That would be assuming the shorters don't short again after closing position or that people in long positions don't close their longs as the price rises. However as the price begins to rise from other closing their position new asks will be placed on the orderbook.



As I said in the wall observer thread, I understand this, but if it's cascading there is no time for any of that to happen. 30K shorts will close into 20K asks before a single trader with a long decides to sell, a shorter decides to reopen, or new asks appear on the order book. This happened at bfx before with the long squeeze to 100. Although unlikely, still dangerous.

Anyways, I'm out, hopefully we have some fun tomorrow!
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2015, 09:10:58 PM
@hyphymikey

Now we just need Elvis to buy it up to 4-500$ with a single buy on all exchanges at the same time and your wet dream becomes true. Not saying it's impossible tho...

I don't need Elvis to do it on all exchanges, just bfx, arbitrage won't be fast enough to take advantage of a cascade. A short cascade will easily bring the price up to my highball asks.

Elvis himself could profit, buy it up to 500, watch the shorts do the rest, sell all of his coins over 1000 lol.

Profit to be made, but we all know a cascade in either direction has a very slim chance.
23  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shorts on Bitfinex at a all time high! on: April 19, 2015, 09:04:30 PM
They would close into the 100k+ BTC that have been opened as longs.and need to close at some point.. Roll Eyes

However, sooner or later Bitfinex will implode and bulls and bears will get burned at the same time. Smiley

how will it implode?

Due to the fact that longs can be opened with BTC as collateral. The lower BTC/USD price gets the more dangerous it becomes. I explained the situation a few weeks ago, I'm too lazy to write it again. My guess was that@ around 80-100$ the lights will go out for Bitfinex, as probably most of those longs have been opened with BTC as coll.

Doesn't their algorithm work in a way it takes btc price into account? Let's say you use btc as collateral and open a long, it says you will get margin called at $120, that means at a price of $120 your btc worth $120 each will not be enough to cover your loans. It doesn't work as if btc price is now $220 so you have $220 worth of collateral no matter the btc price. That would be just plain dumb.

Would you mind giving the link to your post? I'm interested as I use bfx.
24  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shorts on Bitfinex at a all time high! on: April 19, 2015, 08:59:49 PM
To close out those shorts coins have to be bought back. They have around 20K coins on finex for sell. It was a joke about million dollar coins, but just wanted to point out there are more shorts than can be closed. Or am I missing something?

If I borrow something and sell it, and then I have to buy back in able to return what I sold but there isn't enough out there no matter the price, what do I do?

Also, I don't need bitcoin to be above 300. I want as many coins as possible, shorters are helping me accumulate. But seeing the order books I would not short myself.

The same can easily be stated for those longs being margin called,  not enough bids.  price would also implode

True, but there is far more money on the exchange that is not on the order books. 90% of my fiat is not on the order books, so who knows how much is out there waiting to pounce on a long squeeze. While there may be many coins not on the order books I doubt it even comes close to fiat. All my coins are on the order books at a very high price just in case there is a flash or error and I get "overpaid" for my coins. The reason I don't do the same with my fiat is I don't want anyone to think there is support and hopefully they sell and bring the price down to a point in willing to buy at.
25  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2015, 08:53:03 PM
Over 30K shorts. There isn't enough coins for sale to close those shorts out. If they cascade close we could see million dollar coins!
Well, the longs will close if the shorts squeeze. Lots and lots of loans here...


I understand that, but I would want to make sure there is enough depth to get out of my position without gambling that someone will be closing out their long at a price before I get margin called. If it's cascading, only the longs with asks already on the order book will be there to close into, and that is only 20K
26  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2015, 08:49:57 PM
Is someone testing their funds at each exchange? Making sure they all work before a pump?

Not sure if I would want to show my cards before playing the hand.
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shorts on Bitfinex at a all time high! on: April 19, 2015, 08:34:49 PM
They would close into the 100k+ BTC that have been opened as longs... Roll Eyes

However, sooner or later Bitfinex will implode and bulls and bears will get burned at the same time. Smiley

You mean they would buy back from the open longs that MIGHT be for sale? Hopefully somebody is closing their long in the price range before you get margin called. If it's cascading you won't even have a chance.  Roll Eyes

Not worth the risk if you ask me.
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shorts on Bitfinex at a all time high! on: April 19, 2015, 08:27:28 PM
To close out those shorts coins have to be bought back. They have around 20K coins on finex for sell. It was a joke about million dollar coins, but just wanted to point out there are more shorts than can be closed. Or am I missing something?

If I borrow something and sell it, and then I have to buy back in able to return what I sold but there isn't enough out there no matter the price, what do I do?

Also, I don't need bitcoin to be above 300. I want as many coins as possible, shorters are helping me accumulate. But seeing the order books I would not short myself.
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shorts on Bitfinex at a all time high! on: April 19, 2015, 08:02:07 PM
Over 30K shorts. There isn't enough coins for sale to close those shorts out. If they cascade close we could see million dollar coins!

This makes me realize shorters are not smart.
30  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2015, 08:01:39 PM
Over 30K shorts. There isn't enough coins for sale to close those shorts out. If they cascade close we could see million dollar coins! LOL

EDIT: I forgot the LOL, I know we won't see a million, just pointing out the shorts to ask ratio
31  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2015, 09:35:46 PM
Shorts at all time high.

bullshit, ATH is at ~7.2 mil, right now at ~5.5 mil
http://bfxdata.com/sentiment/longshort.php

You don't count shorted bitcoin in dollar terms lol. Fiat in fiat, coins in coins.

32  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2015, 08:31:48 PM
Shorts at all time high.
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2015, 07:08:19 PM
Fiat cannons loaded. Someone bring us under $200 please
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2015, 01:36:37 AM
Almost 3K shorts just got burned.
35  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 15, 2015, 12:22:08 AM
Also, monkey caved to the market, turned bearish, sees support at 126.

126? What time frame?
36  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 15, 2015, 12:00:18 AM
I feel bad for the Winkelvosses

Why? They got billions of dollars.

Because of the whole bitcoin thing

They are still in the green a few thousand percent on their holdings  Cheesy Cheesy
37  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2015, 06:44:01 PM
$9000 weekly limit across the only exchanges I trust is not enough!  Cry  Angry
38  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2015, 07:37:12 PM
Instead of stacking all those coins on the ask side to $300, why don't you just dump them and bring us to single digits?

Oh wait, those asks aren't real, I forgot. Sorry.

Edit: If they are in fact real, oh please mighty bear whale, bring us single digit coins. I will gladly buy more than I've ever bought before.
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2015, 12:51:25 AM
Why no weekend pump? Will we not have a mid week dump either?

Bears seem to stop selling around this price almost every time.

This week will be interesting.... or painfully flat.
40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2015, 03:30:07 PM
I wonder when a bullwhale will take advantage of the shorts, and all the longs for sale on the ask side of bitfinex. You could pick up an auction amount of coins without much slippage. All while killing a bear whale with bad tactics.

It's almost as if there is only one whale running this thing and he is in bear mode right now. Shorting to drop the price, putting leveraged longs for sale to create huge ask depth, and picking up cheap coins as a result. Then he closes out shorts into his longs both for profit,  after he gobbles up several thousand cheap coins. A great way to play with other people's money to pick up cheap coins unless another whale finds out.
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