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ETH/USD Medium-term Trend: Ranging
Resistance Levels: $260, $280, $300
Support Levels: $200, $180, $160
Yesterday, September 26, the ETHUSD pair was in a bullish trend. Price of the digital currency had been fluctuating above the $200 price level. Then at a price of $211.27, the ETH price made a bullish movement to the high of $222.39. Presently, the cryptocurrency is in a range bound movement and price may face resistance at the $220 price level.
Nevertheless, the MACD line and the signal line are below the zero line which indicates a sell signal. In addition, the price of Ethereum is below the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that a bearish trend is ongoing. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is level 44 which indicates that price is in the sideways trend zone.
ETH/USD Short-term Trend: Ranging
On the 1-hour chart, the price of Ethereum is in a sideways trend. The digital currency is fluctuating between the levels of $200 and $220. The price is below the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that price is in a bearish trend. The MACD line and the signal line are above the zero line which indicates a buy signal.
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The current bias on the market is bullish, but the bullishness is not very strong. Price consolidated in the first few trading days of last week, and went higher on Thursday. The outlook on the market remains bullish for this week, and thus, buying pressure may take price towards the resistance lines at 1.1750 (which was previously reached), 1.1800 and 1.1850. There is also a good support line at 1.1650, which should try to prevent any meaningful pullback along the way. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish The market dropped roughly 100 pips last week, having dropped 400 pips since August 17, 2018. Since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is assumed that the price should continue going further and further downwards, reaching the support levels at 0.9550, 0.9500 and 0.9450 within the next few weeks. There could be some transitory rallies along the way, but they should not be significant to the extent of overriding the current bearish market. . GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This long-term and the short-term biases are bullish. Since August 16, 2018, price gained 600 pips, resulting in a confirmed “buy” signal. On September 21, there was a serious pullback in the market, which made price drop 200 pips from the high of that day. The drop was not strong enough to bring about a “sell” signal, unless the market drops at least, another 200 pips. This will determine what the market will do next. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish About two weeks ago, a clean bullish signal was generated on this currency trading instrument, and the signal has been sustained till now. For about two weeks, price has gone northwards slowly and gradually, gaining about 200 pips. There is much room for price to go northwards: The supply levels at 113.00, 113.50 and 114.00 could be aimed at, although a very strong buying pressure is needed to reach the supply level at 114.00.. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Like USDJPY, this cross has been going upwards in the last two weeks (a gain of roughly 500 pips). Since there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, further northwards journey is possible, even in spite of the minor bearish retracement that was witnessed last Friday. The supply zones at 135.50, 136.00 and 136.50 could be reached within the next several trading days. They could even be exceeded. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Since a bullish signal was generated on GBPJPY, price has made a significant gain. Nonetheless, there was a pullback on September 21, which cannot be ignored (a pullback of 240 pips). It is normal for price to resume its northward journey from here, giving a good opportunity to go long at lower prices. On the other hand, the market could pull back further, and that may threaten the recent bullish signal. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Any one of the many trading strategies available to traders can be used following the principle of matching personal risk tolerance to the amount of risk in the market.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com |
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LTC/USD Medium-term Trend: Ranging
Resistance Levels: $60, $65, $70
Support Levels: $50, 45, $40
Yesterday, September 19, the price of Litecoin was in a sideways trend. There has been no significant price movement as the digital currency had been range bound between the levels of $50 and $60. On September 19, the LTC price had a price spike. The price went down to the low of $51.56 and was resisted. The same candlestick at the same time went up to the high of $55.04 and also pulled back.
The prices were pulling back as they test the upper and lower levels of price range. Meanwhile, the LTC price will continue its range bound movement. However, the MACD line and the signal line are at par with the zero line which indicates a neutral signal. In addition, the price of Litecoin is neither below nor above the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that a sideways trend is ongoing. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is level 48 which indicates that price is in the sideways trend zone.
LTC/USD Short-term Trend: Ranging
On the 1-hour chart, the LTC price is in a sideways trend. The price is above the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that a bullish trend is ongoing. The MACD line and the signal line are above the zero line which indicates a sell signal.
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The bias on EUR/USD has essentially turned neutral, as price has not made any significant upwards or downwards movement in the last several trading days. There is a resistance line at 1.1750, and there is a support line at 1.1500. Either the resistance line must be breached to the upside, or the support lines must be breached to the downside before there could be a directional bias. That is what is expected before the end of this week or next. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market. In the medium-term, the market has been swinging up and down. The price action is characterized by higher lows (which proffer opportunities to sell short at slightly higher prices), and lower lows, which follow the line of the least resistance. The most probable direction for the market this week is bearish. Price has remained bearish when EURUSD was weak, and therefore, it would be very difficult for USDCHF to trend upwards when EURUSD breaks out upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish A clean bullish signal has already been generated in the market. Even in the higher time horizon, price has been going upwards in the past four weeks. On Friday, the market closed on a slightly bearish note – which would eventually turn out to be a temporary pullback in the market. The recent bullish journey is expected to resume, and the distribution territories at 1.3100, 1.3150 and 1.3200 may be reached within two weeks. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish A straightforward bullish signal has been generated and there is a high probability that the market would continue to make higher highs, owing to the Bullish Confirmation Pattern that was present in the market. Within the next several trading days, price is expected to reach the supply levels at 112.50, 113.00 and 113.50. There is also a demand level at 111.00, which is supposed to be a barrier to any bearish pullbacks along the way. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The bias is bullish, but the bullishness is weak. Further bullish movement is expected but any surprisingly negative fundamentals can send the market tumbling (owing to the precariousness of the market). The next targets are the supply zones at 130.50, 131.00 and 132.00. A very strong buying pressure is needed for the supply zone at 132.00 to be breached to the upside, and this will not come without bearish machinations. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross gained about 370 pips last week, having gained over 700 pips since August 15. Price closed on Friday, around the demand zone at 146.00. The outlook on the market remains bright, and therefore, in spite of any possible pullbacks in the market, general movement will be towards the north. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market will aid price towards the supply zones at 146.50, 147.00 and 147.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I realized that the more common pitfalls you avoid, the more edges you have relative to other traders operating with less awareness.” – VTI Source: www.tallinex.com |
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TIMELY EXIT “Successful Trading Is Not About Being Right.” – VTI What is your tolerance for pain? Consider the following scenario. You have 10% of your account balance on the line. For the past two days, prices have been going in the direction you had anticipated, but today, an announcement was made that caused a market move that caused all your profits to be wiped out in an hour. What will you do? See if prices will move back to where you are okay again? At times like these, it is useful to have a clearly defined trading plan with a specific exit strategy. Trading is inherently uncertain. You never know exactly what will happen next. That’s what makes the business exciting to some traders but nerve wracking to others. How you handle adverse events that make prices move against you depends on your personality. The best way to protect your capital is to use protective stops. When formulating your trading plan, you must decide how much pain you can tolerate. How much money can you lose before you have to exit the trade? You can set this exit point as a formal stop loss, you can use the automatic settings on your trading platform to set a stop, or you can use a mental stop (not recommended). The problem with a formal stop loss procedure, whether it is a formal order or an automatic setting on your trading platform, is that a transitory change in price can ‘stop you out.’ if the placement of your stop loss does not adequately account for volatility. It’s hard to know how far a stock may move and a temporary drop can ruin your trading plan when a protective stop is not set properly. Mental stops may be more useful, but you run the risk of not being able to exercise your mental stop (think heart attack, nervous breakdown, stroke, personal emergency, computer failure, etc.). You can decide how far a stock price must move against you before you will liquidate the position. When prices reach the exit point, you can decide whether the low price is transitory or represents a significant change in trend. You can then exit the trade. This all sounds good in theory, but depending on your personality, you may not be able to carry out this strategy. If you have trouble controlling your emotions and you use a mental stop, for example, you may have trouble closing the trade when it reaches your exit point. Some people panic and out of fear don’t close their position when their mental stop is reached. These people may need to impose the proper amount of discipline on their trading actions by using an electronic stop or a formal stop-loss order. Minimizing trading losses is the hallmark of successful trading, but not all traders are equal when it comes to their ability to trade decisively under strain. If you want to trade profitably, you have to work around your personality. If you are cool headed, disciplined, and are willing to take the risk even under the most stressful conditions, you can use mental stops to protect your capital. But if you are easily shaken by choppy market action, you might want to use electronic, automatic stops to protect yourself. Whatever you do, however, minimize losses as much as possible. It’s the only way to trade profitably in the long run. Author: Joe Ross Source https://www.tradingeducators.com/edition-733 The article is ended with 3 quotes below: “Getting out of trades too early with tiny profits very often is a sure road to bankruptcy. Sure it feels good to take some off the table right away…but it’s hardly ever successful in the long run.” - Marco Mayer “To make money out of these still requires good management. It is always challenging to see some traders make money from a trade while some traders lose money from the very same trade.” – Joe Ross “Don’t let those losses lead to mindset traps that can stop you from taking the next trade. Change the way you think about your loss, and you’ll regain your motivation. I guarantee it.” – Louise Bedford www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets. |
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ETH/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
Resistance Levels: $200, $220, $240
Support Levels: $160, $140, $120
Yesterday, September 11, the price of Ethereum was in a bearish trend. The price of Ethereum fell to the low of $175.69. Today, the cryptocurrency is in a bearish trend. Price has broken the major support level of $200. Price is likely to test the next support level which is $160 price level.
If price reaches the next support level, that would probably be the first low since the beginning of the year.Nevertheless, the MACD line and the signal line are below the zero line which indicates a sell signal. In addition, the price of Ethereum is below the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that the bearish trend is ongoing. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is level 22 which indicates that the market is oversold suggesting bulls to take control of the market.
ETH/USD Short-term Trend: Bearish
On the 1-hour chart, the price of Ethereum is in a bearish trend. Price of Ethereum is falling because the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA are above the price of the cryptocurrency. The MACD line and the signal line are below the zero line which indicates a sell signal.
The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of BitcoinExchangeGuide.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.
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GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold is a bear market. In August price dipped by over 6000 pips, reaching around the support level of 1160.00 (a support level). From there, price moved upwards by 5000 pips and then moved sideways till the end of the month. All this happened in the context of a downtrend; plus the market has been moving sideways in the last two weeks. A breakout is imminent, and that would happen anytime before the end of September and it would most probably favor bears. Thus price is expected to go downwards by at least 5000 pips from here. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Just like Gold, Silver is also bearish, but its downwards movement is more pronounced than that of Gold. Price dropped roughly 10,000 pips in August alone and it has dropped 32,000 pips since June 14, 2018. Owing to the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern, it is rational to expect further bearish movement (at least another 10,000 pips) in September. 4000 pips have already been lost this month, and after the current consolidation ends, further bearish journey should continue, leading to more shedding of pips. Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair started rising on August 15, and it gained more than 400 pips since then. However, there was a bearish retracement that took place last Thursday and Friday, which was not significant enough to override the recent bullish bias in the market (unless there is at least, 300 pip-drop from here). Price is supposed to recover and move higher this week, reaching the resistance lines at 1.1600, 1.1650 and 1.1700; which were all previously tested. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market. Since the last consolidation phase ended, price has come down by over 250 pips, closing on a bearish note on Friday. Since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is rational to expect further bearish pressure, which may push price towards the support levels at 0.9650, 0.9600 and 0.9550. The selling pressure needs to be significant for the support level at 0.9550 to be breached to the downside. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable is bullish in the short-term, but bearish in the long-term. Further northward movement will endangered the long-term bearish bias, while further southwards movement will strengthen it. Price closed below the distribution territory at 1.2900 on Friday, and may go slightly lower before any rally effort is made. The possibility of price moving lower is stronger than its possibility of moving higher. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The bias is now essentially neutral, and the situation in the market is currently dicey (as the market is choppy). Recently, price has swung between the supply level at 112.00 and the demand level at 109.50. As long as price is between these demand and supply levels, the neutrality in the market will persist. Once the demand level is breached to the downside (and price stays below it) or the supply level is breached to the upside (and price stays above it), the neutrality will end and a directional bias will start. Nevertheless, this requires a strong momentum to happen. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Since August 15, price has gained roughly 600 pips, before the bearish movement that was witnessed on August 30 and 31. From last week’s high, price went downwards by 200 pips, and it could still go downwards by another 100 pips or more or less. The bullish bias will remain intact as long as price does not go below the demand zone at 126.00. Bulls will generally continue to endeavor to push the price upwards. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The cross is bullish in the very short-term (though the long-term bias is somewhat bearish). A strong movement towards the south will result in more emphasis on the recent bearishness in the market, while a strong movement to the upside will result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On the upside, the supply zones at 144.50, 145.00 and 145.50 could be reached, provided the market does not continue its current bearish correction. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Those who know me or who have traded with me know that I am always looking for a simple and straightforward approach to trading.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Do you want to be a successful trader? Then you need to unlock your potential and develop the right habits and routines. Experience shows that people want to keep doing what they are doing, while expecting different results. In trading, that means they carry on trading in a certain way even when it brings poor results. Making a career out of trading means you have to identify what doesn’t work for you, and stop doing it. But that’s not easy – nobody likes being told they are wrong. Your mind is the biggest obstacle that you need to overcome. It prevents you from following trading plans and deceives you into disobeying winning rules because of a transitory setback, thus missing great opportunities to make decent profits. You can only unlock your trading potential through the realities of trading. Unlock Your Potential with the Realities of Trading (almost free of charge): http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/unlockpotential/index.html www.tallinex.com wants you to become profitable |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair gained a minimum of 200 pips last week, thus forming a bullish signal in the short-term. Further bullish movement is supposed to bring about a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern, even in the long-term, as more gains are made in the market. Price would continue moving upwards this week, and bulls might target the resistance lines at 1.1650, 1.1700 and 1.1750 before the end of this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument has become bearish in the short-term (though the market remains neutral in the long-term). Last week, the market fell by over 130 pips, in reaction to the bullish effort evident on EURUSD. Should price continue dropping more and more southwards, the long-term outlook on the market itself will become bearish. Right now, the support levels at 0.9800, 0.9750 and 0.9700. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Although Cable made a faint effort to rally last week, the outlook remains bearish in the long-term. On Friday, price closed on a neutral note, but a rise in momentum is expected any day (before the end of the month); and that is expected to be in favor of bulls. Nonetheless, there is a need for price to go upwards by at least, 400 pips before the long-term bias can turn bullish. Right now, price is consolidating. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish In the long-term and the short-term, a Bullish Confirmation Pattern is present in the market. Last week, price managed to gain 140 pips, from the weekly low of 110.00. The probability of price going northwards is higher than its probability to reverse and go seriously downwards. While there may be bearish threats along the way, USDJPY is supposed to generally go northwards this week, reaching the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50 and 112.000. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross made a significant rally last week, rising from the demand zone at 126.50, and gaining about 340 pips, before closing around the price zone at 129.50 on Friday. Bulls are still intent on pushing the market upwards – that is the expectation for this week. At least, another 200 pips would be targeted this week, as price aims at the supply zones of 130.00, 130.50 and 140.00 might be reached this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross is bearish in the long-term, but bullish in the very short-term. Last Monday, price consolidated, rallied on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then consolidated for the rest of the week. The outlook on the market is bullish for this week, and in case the expected bullish movement is serious enough, the long-term bias on the market should become bullish. This week, the supply zones at 143.50, 144.00 and 144.50, could be targeted. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Price action behavior in all timeframes reflects rational human behavior. Thus, whether a trade is executed on the 5 minute or the monthly chart, price action and the trading idea remains equally valid. Capital markets are fractal in nature. If you want to trade a system that preserves its’ edges over the long-run, then the low-risk idea should be based on humans’ psychological biases.” - Gabriel Grammatidis Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish, and price went further downwards until it reached the support line at 1.1350. Further drop was rejected around the support level and a rally effort ensued. However, the rally effort was not serious enough to threaten the recent bearish outlook on the market. There is a need for price to go further upwards by another 200 pips before the bearish outlook can be rendered ineffectual. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral The most probable direction for this pair is southwards, once a breakout occurs in the market. Right now, the situation remains unchanged. It is interesting that the bias on USDCHF remains neutral, just as it was last week. The neutrality in the market has been existing since June 2018. Normally, USDCHF should go upwards as EURUSD goes south, but the former has chosen to remain neutral as the latter goes south, hence showing the bulls’ apathy. Should EURUSD skyrocket (something that will eventually happen) there would be a smooth bearish movement on USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable went slight downwards from Monday to Wednesday (in conjunction with the downtrend), and then consolidated for the rest of last week (also in the context of a downtrend). The market has shed over 400 pips this month, and there seems it has much more room to go southwards. Nonetheless, the more the market goes bearish, the higher the chances of a strong bullish reversal when it does occur. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the medium-term, a bearish signal has been generated on this pair. Although the situation in the market is quite choppy, a closer look reveals that bears have upper hands right now, and thus, the market may be able to test the demand levels at 110.00, 109.50 and 109.00. But that achievement will require a very strong bearish movement in the market. Bulls are also waiting for an opportunity to effect a reversal, pronged by a favorable fundamental factor. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The price moved sideways last week – in the context of a downtrend. Further bearish movement this week will result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market (which has already shown its existence). The outlook on JPY pairs is currently bearish but there is also a probability of a strong bullish breakout, which may become a threat to the existing Bearish Confirmation Pattern. Whatever the case may be, a strong movement will happen this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross has dropped over 640 pips this month. It only consolidated last week, while the outlook on the market remains bearish. GBP is very weak and JPY is fairly strong; thus the bearish journey will likely continue this week when a breakout does occur. The targets for bears are the demand zones at 140.50, 140.00 and 139.50, which may be exceeded with enough bearish pressure. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Profits are an obvious and natural reward for trading efforts.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish As the beginning of last week, the pair saw a considerable increase throughout its first and second days of trading. Price later dropped below the resistance line at 1.1600, closing below it (and that signified a drop of more than 170 pips from last week’s high). This month, the outlook on EUR pairs is bullish, which means EUR would rise against most major currencies, thereby reversing the current bearish bias on the market. However, EUR may not be able to rally versus JPY. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral The market has been moving sideways since June – hence the current neutral outlook. Price has been moving between the resistance level at 1.0050 and the support level at 0.9850, at least on a long-term basis. For the neutral bias to end, price would need to move out of these boundaries, and that is expected to create a directional bias. However, it may take several trading days (even a few weeks), for a strong, directional movement to occur. This is because volatility in the markets would be generally low this month, save in certain cases. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The bias on GBPUSD is bearish and it would continue to be bearish, at least for this week. Price ranged from Monday to Wednesday, and then dropped further southwards on Thursday and Friday. The drop may continue this week, as price targets the accumulation territories at 1.2950 and 1.2900 (which may even be exceeded). A considerable amount of volatility will be witnessed on GBP pairs, while volatility will be low on most other pairs. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The situation on this trading instrument is tricky. It is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. The bullish bias will soon change to a bearish bias (while the short-term neutrality will evaporate), because the outlook on JPY pairs is strong bearish for this week, and for the whole month of August. In fact, price is expected to shed a minimum of 300 pips this month, reaching the demand levels of 110.00, 100.00 and 109.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market initially went upwards, reaching the supply zone at 131.00. Nonetheless, further upwards movement is rejected at that supply zone as price slid downwards by roughly 240 pips, closing near the demand zone at 128.50 on Friday. Since there is Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, further downwards movement is anticipated this week, which would enable price to reach the demand zones at 128.50, 128.00 and 127.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a “sell” signal in the market. Price first went upwards by 150 pips last week, reaching the supply zone at 147.00. It even moved slightly above that supply zone before dropping by 240 pips; hence the “sell” signal. Given the weakness of GBP, and the bearish outlook on JPY pairs, the most probable movement this week, is downwards. The demand zones at 144.50, 144.00 and 143.50 would easily be reached. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading in itself is a thrilling activity, and many non-traders never have a chance to experience that level of excitement.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com |
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YES….IT IS HOT DURING SUMMER… “The person who loses the least amount of money when things go wrong inevitably wins.” – Chris Tate Apparently, this little piece of information is a complete and utter surprise to most Australians judging by the level of commentary attached to the current hot spell sweeping the country. The point that most intrigues me is that Australians are constantly surprised by the fact that their country gets friggen hot during summer and each year they proclaim their surprise loudly and annoying. For example I live in what is referred to as one of Melbourne’s leafy green inner suburbs where the standard garden seems to be the English cottage style which about this time of the year looks as if it has been napalmed. My neighbours as well as most conservative politicians seem to believe that Australia is a small island anchored off the Cornish coast as opposed to a bloody big, parched, mostly uninhabitable island in South East Asia. Even our maps tell a false tale in that they contain images of wonderful verdant countryside that apparently stretches for hundreds of kilometres inland. This is news to anyone who spends a lot of their time in the air actually looking at the countryside. Each year we rail against the reality of our situation as if we are continually surprised each time it occurs. There is a profoundly irrational core to this belief since it reflects a simple inability to accept reality or to somehow believe that you control certain parts of your reality. There is the wonderful refrain – it should never be this hot. The problem is that it is this hot and will continue to be this hot long after we are gone. This is also a traders lament after all how often have you heard someone say that prices couldn’t possibly stay at this level – they have to recover. The natural order of things is that price can go where they want and you have no control over that. The issue here is acceptance of reality – in summer it gets hot and prices can and do go down. Acceptance of these simple facts makes life much easier. Emotional conflict arises when your belief structure is at odds with reality and dealing with this involves finding out what the problematic belief is, offering some form of counter to it and then replacing it with a more useful and realistic belief. For example believing that the price of something you have bought could never go down is an unrealistic and destructive belief as there is a vast cornucopia of evidence to the contrary. The disputation comes about simply by looking at the evidence to the contrary and the new and liberating belief is that price moves and sometimes it moves against me. The movement against you is not the issue but rather your reaction to that movement. Life as a trader becomes much easier when this sort of regime is put in place. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradinggame.com.au Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/yes-hot-summer/www.tallinex.com wants you to be a successful trader |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Price made a bullish attempt on Monday, but started coming down afterwards. The support line at 1.1600 was tested and price bounced off it, closing above another support line at 1.1700. The market is neutral, and that status will continue as long as price oscillates between the support line at 1.1550 and the resistance line at 1.1800. However, the neutrality in the market will soon end, and ensuing movement could most probably favor bulls. This means a break above the resistance line at 1.1800 is possible before the end of the week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral This pair also went downwards at the beginning of last week, and then rallied around the middle of the week, only to come downward again at the end of the week. Price closed below the resistance level at 0.9950, threatening to go further downwards. The bias on the market is eventually neutral, and it would remain so until the support level at 0.9850 is breached to the downside. The most probable direction is southwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD is a weak trading instrument. Since April 14, price has been going downwards. Price moved briefly below the accumulation territory at 1.3000, and then rallied by 170 pips, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.3150. The bias remains essentially bearish (but perpetual bullish effort could threaten the bearish bias). There are additional distribution territories 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3300. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish After testing the supply level at 113.00 several times, a bearish correction was started, which made the price close below the supply level at 111.50 on July 20 (a drop of 150 pips). The bias is bullish in the long-term, but going bearish in the short-term. Things will go completely bearish when price moves further downwards by another 200 pips, reaching the demand levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00, and going further downwards. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market had been going upwards since June 28 until recently. The recent bias is bullish but there is a high possibility of price going bearish. Price has made a bearish U-turn, after almost reaching the supply zone at 132.00. It is expected that price will continue to go downwards this week, thereby rendering the recent bullish bias invalid and reaching the demand zones at 130.00, 129.50 and 129.00. Those demand zones may even be exceeded before the end of July. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, as a result of a drop of 300 pips last week. The drop has already generated a bearish signal in the market, brought about by the perceived weakness in GBP, and the strength in JPY. This week (even till the end of July), the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish, and that means GBPJPY also will experience further bearish movement, which would enable it to reach the demand zones at 145.50, 140.00 and 135.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “A surprising insight for me in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards was that most of the top traders he interviewed are 1-trick ponies: they do one thing — and they do it very well. Their success was built upon their ability to discover what others overlooked. I concluded that ‘doing one thing well’ would immediately simplify my trading life and could eventually evolve one thing into an important trading edge.” – VTI Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. Last week, after testing the support line at 1.1600, price went upwards by 150 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.1750. Price can still go further upwards towards the resistance lines at 1.1800 and 1.1850. However, a strong buying pressure is needed to reach the resistance line at 1.1850. A southwards movement from here would render this expectation invalid. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral The market is virtually flat. Since the past two weeks, price has moved between the support level at 0.9850 and the resistance level at 1.0000. As long as price moves between the aforementioned support and resistance levels, things will remain neutral. This week, it is not likely that price would break the support level at 0.9850 to the downside; or break the resistance level at 1.0000 to the upside, because much volatility is not expected in the market this week. However, before the end of the month, a rise in momentum is expected, which would create a directional bias. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD Is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term, just like EURUSD. Since testing the accumulation territory at 1.3100, price has gone upwards by roughly 200 pips, closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3250 and aiming the distribution territory at 1.3300. Nonetheless, the major outlook remains bearish, which means the market needs to gain, at least, another 300 pips, before the bias can turn bullish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Since March 26, the market has been going northwards slowly and gradually. Right now, the bullish bias is weak, although bears have not been able to push price lower significantly. There was an attempt to go south last week, after the supply level at 111.00 was tested. Price closed slightly below the supply level at 110.50, and it may go towards the demand level at 110.00, where bearish effort should be contained, just for the bullish bias to be saved. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross is bullish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Some bullish effort started around the end of June, and it has been upheld till now. In the short-term, price could move upwards and downwards, within the supply zone at 131.00 and the demand zone at 128.00. Price may not be able to go beyond these boundaries because much volatility is not expected this month, unless some fundamental figure causes a radical change in the market. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Since June 28, this trading instrument has been going upwards, leading to a bullish bias in the short-term (a Bullish Confirmation Pattern). Last week ended on a bullish note and it is probable that price would continue going upwards, reaching the supply zones at 147.00, 147.50 and 148.00. There would be a reversal along the way, which would, nevertheless, not be serious enough to invalidate the ongoing bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “But in trading, often the best solution is the simplest...” - Michael Carr Source: www.tallinex.com |
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GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold moved sideways in the beginning of June 2018, until June 14. Since then, price has come down by roughly 6000 pips. July has been bullish so far (in the short-term), but the upwards bounce in the market has paled into insignificance when compared to the overall bearish bias on the market. A movement above the supply level at 1280.00 will threaten the bullish bias; while a movement above the supply zone at 1300.00 will invalidate it. All this upwards movement, however, requires extremely strong bullish momentum to be effective. Therefore, in the absence of any strong bullish momentum, Gold may continue its downwards movement. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on Silver, which is not as strong as the Bearish Confirmation Pattern on Gold. Following a few months of boring consolidation (February – May, 2018), price rallied in early June, reaching the distribution territory at 17.2000. From there, price moved downwards gradually until the end of June. In the short-term, Silver started July on a bearish note, and then rallied, and then movies sideways. The sideways movement is still in place, but it will soon be ended as price resumes its bearish journey, reaching the accumulation territories at 15.7000, 15.5000, and 15.3000. On the other hand, a strong bullish momentum will challenge this bearish outlook. Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish, but price was not able to go downwards seriously last week. Thus the market is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. A strong opposition was particularly met at the support line at 1.1550, after which price bounced off the support line. However, that would turn out to be an opportunity to go short at a better price, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week. One major task for bears is to break the support line at 1.1550 to the downside, as price goes further downwards. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral The bias on this pair has become neutral, especially in the face of the fact that USDCHF was characterized by trendlessness throughout June. Last week, price went upwards, to move above the resistance level at 0.9950, and then moved below that resistance (now close to the support level at 0.9900). As long as EURUSD remains weak, there will not be a significant bearish movement on USDCHF pair this week (although the pair will eventually give way to bearish pressures before the end of July). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market went smoothly downwards, testing the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (over 200 pips of bearish movement). After testing the accumulation territory at 1.3050, price rallied seriously and closed above the accumulation territory at 1.3200. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, so a movement towards the accumulation territories at 1.3200, 1.3150 and 1.3100 are highly anticipated. There could even be a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3100. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish A Bullish Confirmation Pattern is present on the USDJPY. In the short-term, price rallied from the demand level at 109.50, to close above the demand level at 110.50 on Friday. This week, there could be further upwards movement towards the supply levels at 111.00 and 111.50. However, price is not expected to go further upwards than that because the outlook on certain JPY pairs is bearish for the month of July. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. In short-term, a movement above the demand zone at 129.00 has resulted in a ‘buy” signal, which could enable price to reach the supply zones at 129.50 and 130.000, However, any movement to the upside would be limited, partly because of the ongoing weakness in EUR, which means price could also be retraced lower before the end of this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Owing to the present Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, the bias on this trading instrument is bearish, but the strong bullish surge that was witnessed on Friday has posed a threat to the bearish outlook. On Thursday and Friday, price gained 250 pips, after testing the demand zone at 144.00. Should price gain another 200 pips this week, things will turn completely bullish. On the other hand, a downward movement from here would save the bearish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “There are opportunities… It’s a matter of seeking them out, in the biggest playground of all... the markets.” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market swung upwards and downwards last week, without a directional movement. Nevertheless, the major bias remains bearish, and the outlook on EUR pairs is mostly bearish for this week. It is possible that price will test the support lines at 1.1600, 1.1550 (which were previously tested last week). Price may also reach the support line at 1.1500, and possibly breach it to the downside. But that will require a heavy selling pressure. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Price went sideways from Monday to Wednesday, and fell on Thursday and Friday, corroborating the outgoing bearish outlook on the market. Both USDCHF and EURUSD are currently bearish: But protracted bearish pressure on the latter may help a bullish signal to be generated on the former. There are support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800. There are also resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, price went further southwards, shedding 160 pips and almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.3100. There was an upwards bounce on Thursday, but that would be an opportunity to sell short at higher prices (unless the distribution territory at 1.3400 is breached to the upside). GBP pairs (as well as other major pairs) will experience high volatility this week, and also in the first week of July. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The long-term bias is bullish, but the short-term bias is bearish. Throughout last week, price meandered between the demand level at 109.50 and the supply level at 111.00. Should price continue to move within the confines of the aforementioned demand and supply levels, the short-term bias would remain neutral. Once the confines are breached, a directional movement will resume, and it could most likely favor bulls. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just like its USDJPY counterpart, this cross mostly ranged last week (though the recent bias on the market is bearish). For the ranging movement to end, it is either price will breach the demand zone at 127.00 to the downside (going further downwards), or price would need to breach the supply zone at 129.00 to the upside (going further upwards). One of these conditions must be met for the bearish bias to be supported or invalidated; otherwise the trend would become neutral. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross underwent a heavy selling pressure on July 18 and 19, but bulls pushed price upwards on July 20 and 21. There remains a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it would be invalidated only when price moves upwards by 500 pips from here. On the other hand, price could continue falling towards the demand zones at 145.00, 144.50 and 144.00. Price could even go further downwards than that. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is a process-oriented endeavor for those who are serious about becoming and remaining a consistently successful trader.” – Dr. Woody Johnson Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market began the current strong bearish movement in April. This month (especially from early June), price consolidated till June 14, before the large pullback we are currently witnessing. The large pullback has put more emphasis on the dominant bearish bias; thus price is expected to go further southwards this week, reaching the support lines at 1.1600 (an easy target), 1.1550 and 1.1500. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair is bearish in the long-term, but bullish in the short-term. It is somewhat weird that both USDCHF and EURUSD have been bearish for some time, but the situation seems about to change. On June 14, there was a sudden bullish breakout, which was strong enough to bring about a short-term bullish signal. There is a possibility that price could keep on going northwards this week, reaching the resistance levels at 1.0000 (an important level), 1.0050 and 1.0100. However, an exceptionally strong buying pressure would be needed for the resistance level at 1.0100 to be reached. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the first week of June, Cable consolidated in the context of a downtrend. The same thing happened last week…. before the bearish movement that occurred on Thursday, which points to bears’ supremacy. The weakness in the market is currently visible and since the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this month, further southwards movement is expected, which would enable price to reach the accumulation territories at 1.3250, 1.3200 and 1.3150. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY managed to go upwards last week, and it was able to close above the demand level at 110.50 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which points to the possibility of price going towards the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00. Nonetheless, the further northwards the market goes, the greater the potential of a strong pullback, which can happen before the end of the week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The pullback that occurred on April 14 points to the fact that bears are still a force to reckon with. The major bias on the market is bearish, and since EUR is currently weak, price is supposed to continue moving downwards. The outlook on JPY is bearish for this week – another factor that may contribute to continuous weakness in the market. The next targets are the demand zones at 128.00, 127.50 and 127.00. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument simply moved in a range last week. Price ranged between the supply zone at 148.00 and the demand zone at 146.00. This week, either the supply zone or the demand zone would be breached forcefully as price assumes a strong, directional movement. The most likely direction is bearish (which may invalidate the extant bullish bias), and that may enable price to reach the demand zones at 146.50, 146.00 and 145.50. Source: www.tallinex.com |
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Note: This article shows why the use of stop loss is 100% mandatory, despite what suicide traders (who call themselves professionals may say). This article comes from someone with over 60 years of experience in various financial markets. Would you ever think of jumping out of an airplane without a parachute? Of course not, but that's what some people do when they trade the markets. They are very willing to put their money on the line, but they don't have much to protect them from a major disaster. Placing a stop, for example, can prevent you from allowing a small loss to turn into a big one, but many traders avoid placing stops. Why do some traders take risks by not placing stops? It can be difficult to know where to place a stop. If you fail to account for volatility, you will get stopped out too soon. Other people are afraid to place stops. Placing a stop requires you to consider the worst-case scenario, and to many, it's difficult to consider failure. It's easier to deny the potential problem, and to pretend it will not possibly happen. Many experts, however, suggest placing stops. They know that nothing is certain when trading the markets. They view protective stops as a kind of insurance policy that prevents a catastrophic loss. One seasoned trader I talked to, says "I never take a trade without knowing my stop. When I take a trade, I'm pretty convinced it's something worthwhile. I've already figured out my stop. I've accepted the (potential) loss before I ever clicked the button or made the call. So if it starts going against me, I don't feel a flood of emotions." For that trader, stops not only protect him from losses, but they help him control his emotions. Stops give him a feeling of security, and allow him to feel calm and relaxed. Experienced traders may use stops all the time, but even the most experienced traders have difficulty following them. For example, one trader I know, admits, "I've blown stops and it's painful. The weird thing is that money does not seem to be driving it. Afterwards, I sit and try to analyze the incident. I certainly knew better. I believe trading is something of a self-journey. It involves learning about your character, your self-control, and your ego." Still another trader also admits he blows his stops: "Sure. That happens all the time. There's nothing I can do about it. That's one of challenges that continue to engross me. Do you hold them or do you fold them? If you fold a long position and prices go up, you get angry because you made a mistake. If you hold a long position and prices go down, you become angry again. Nevertheless, you have to stay focused on what's going on and learn from the experience and try to apply it to the future. You're going to take your lumps in the market." Even though stops are difficult to set and difficult to keep at times, they are an essential component of risk management. Losses are commonplace in trading. As hard as it is to focus on losses, they are impossible to avoid. Rather than avoid thinking of the worst-case scenario, face it head on. Figure out what could go wrong and where you can place a stop to protect you from a huge financial loss. In the long run, you'll find you will limit losses and trade more profitably. Author: Joe Ross Source: TradingEducators.com The note below ends this piece. “So, what is a trader to do? Well, one of the things to do is to re-evaluate the way you envision the markets and your relationship to loss. What you want to develop is an I don’t care attitude regarding your trading. You must look at the markets as being exactly what they are, totally unpredictable. No matter how good a level looks, it is not a foregone conclusion that any particular outcome is definite. What we look for is the high probability trade. There are times when the probability may get very close to 100%, but no matter how close it gets it can never be 100%. This means that whenever you enter a trade you must embrace it as a possibility for loss. When you do this, it detaches you from the loss potential because you are prepared for it. Of course, you already have begun this process whether you realize it or not. You have put in a hard stop! This is imperative. The stop’s first and main job is to protect your capital. If your capital is gone you cannot trade, so it follows that this is the most important part of your trading; and, of course it is derived from an appropriate risk calculation.” – Dr. Woody Johnson (Source: TradingAcademy.com) www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets. |
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