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In terms of sports betting, I spend less than 10 minutes a day on most days and its my main source of income lately. I follow this strategy and picks https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043401.0In the weekends it can be up to an hour because I do some extra betting with my other portfolios. In my experience, once you find something thats working, stick to and act like a robot. This will reduce stress, make things easier and you will win. If you spend more time analyzing and researching to decide the perfect bet each time you bet, I can assure you that you will keep losing more and more and become miserable. |
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I can't believe some of the replies here. Of course that strategy is not going to get anyone rich. You still need the main skill of sports handicapping just like you need poker skills. What i am saying is that if you have the skill to pick games, this strategy is one of the best to rapidly grow your bankroll, especially if you are starting with smaller bankroll. You will not become a billionaire from this strategy because you won't be able to keep compounding. Even to make million a year it would be hard or not possible dependign on where you are because you cannot keep compounding for ever since most books will start limiting you or the lines will start moving to get the value out of the line. But if you are good at picking games, this strategy can get your bankroll to 100k to 250k and around that point, depending on where you are from you won't be able to compound the winnings due to betting restrictions or limits by sportsbooks. So when you reach that 100k to 250k, and play with that bankroll without compounding, you can make withdraw the winnings and treat it as income. Sure there will be losses but thats part of all investing--ups and down. This strategy is conservative enough to navigate the downs and come up in top if you are decent handicapper--it has been working for me very well.
Bettingresource's picks and their strategy have been around for a while now and some books like bet365, bovada etc have already taken measure. IF you deposit a small bankroll (say $2500 to $5000) and strictly follow bettingresource's picks with their money management, these books will limit you fast. They will limit you so fast that they won't even let the bankroll grow to $15k. And if you start with a bigger bankroll, they would limit you even fast, before you double the bankroll. This happens only if you use the betting account to strictly bet bettingresource picks. If you bet their picks and bet your own picks, the limitation may not happen as fast or may not happen at all if your other bettings are causing you to lose more money than what you are winning with bettingresource picks.
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Since July i doubled my bitcoin betting bankroll but bitcoin itself has fell in value from $8200 to $6700, still big profit though. Would have been insane if bitcoin value also climbed.
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However, 99% of the bettors lose in sports betting. Some lose because they are horrible in picking games. But most lose even if they are good in picking games because they lack the discipline to manager the money Most people are going to lose sports bets because their interest goes alongside bias and personal interest where as a winning strategy would be to remain neutral to either possibility in a game and even more so recognise the occurrence of good odds vs the circumstances of the game. I guess people dont judge all that while staying neutral. There is a cost put into sports bets though, its not free or anything but I get some people will far prefer the open nature to the games rather then the set old style casino bets. Theres going to be some who do better with a fixed game then sports bets which vary far more and I think are harder to judge This is true, most people let emotion get in the way. They may hold it together for a week, month or year and the emotion can strike anytime and affect the discipline patiently betting only when you find value. This is why I always run multiple portfolios with dedicated bankroll to each portfolio. For example, I have portfolio/bankroll dedicated for my own picks. Another dedicated to following bettingresource picks. And another dedicated to following picks from internet (if i find someone posting it with good reasoning and if i like it too). All portfolios have their dedicated bankroll. Its a good way to do it because I don't trust myself to pick without emotions all the time...i will slip here and there and chase. But i have been lot better ever since i started implementing this method to my picks. You don't have to keep compounding for ever. If you start with 5k bankroll or 1 bitcoin you can be close to 100k after 1 year and after that you can stop compounding or change the max bet to 2% or 1%. Its a great method for people starting with bankroll of $10k and under. I know many guys who deposit $500 every two weeks into the bookie and lose it all with in 2 weeks to repeat the same process. If they do this method with the $500 would last months even if they are bad cappers and if they are half decent at picking games, they would never have to deposit again and the growth is exponential. Problem with small bankroll bettors is that they don't have patience to bet small amount but if they do it patiently the growth is exponential with each double up. |
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This is truly a reversed martingale yet this isn't adding up bet on lose but rather on win. Actually my first time to see a compounding based strategy which do adds up on win which is unusual and not being used by most gamblers either on casino based games or into sports betting. Targeting out $100k bankroll on just having $10k usd wont really be that easy and it do takes time.There would be still lots of factors that would affect you along the way while you play which means theres no assurance to really have that kind of discipline on maintaining bet size if you do see opportunity.
Again, this is a modified kelly criterion, not reverse martingale. Martingale is a dangers strategy that can bust your bankroll very fast. This is no where close to martingale. And when you say casino games, if you mean all other games other than poker and sport betting then there is no way to beat those games with any strategy or skill long term because those games are -ev and works against the player. You cannot use those casino games as a method to make a living. If someone is claiming they are, then they are lying. Sports betting and poker are the the only games you can beat with skill. And if you are skilled enough the compounding strategy works very well. In order to be +ev you have to be skilled enough to win long term. If you dont have the skill then poker and sports betting are also -ev for you. Even if you are half decent at picking games and have good discipline and self control, this method is golden. |
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Strategies like this do not work in the long run, this is just a modified version of the martingale strategy, you will eventually lose when you have an unlucky streak and you no longer have the funds to cover the next betting round. Just because you got an extremely lucky streak and managed to survive this long, doesn't mean your strategy is viable for everybody, this is known as the confirmation bias, and you suffer from it.
Martingale strategy is a chase strategy where the bettor increases the stake after each loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. That strategy will make you go broke faster than you can blink in any form of gambling. This 3% compounding strategy is NOT modified martingale strategy. It is a modified Kelly Criterion strategy. The stake in this strategy increases only if you win because the winnings are re-invested. If you lose, the stake doesn't increase. This is the exact opposite of martingale strategy. However, if you read the full article, you would see that this strategy is recommended only for a temporary period for those who start with smaller bankroll and want to grow the bankroll to a desired bankroll. Once that desired bankroll is reached, the winnings are treated as earning and withdrawn instead of re-investing. If you want to bet with $100k bankroll and have $10,000 you would apply this strategy to start. After about 3 months your bankroll would reach 20k then in another 3 months 40k, then 80k and in about 11 months you would reach 100k. At that point you don't compound the winnings anymore. Once you reach the $100k bankroll, you would simply bet $300/unit or max bet of $3000 and this bet size would be fixed regardless of how much you gain after the 100k. |
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It's like taking advantage of the compounding strategy in investing. Taking the accumulation of the invested amount then just taking it in periods in years or decades. It takes longer, but I think it is useful. It's like your savings that are on steroids. Only this time, it's just the principal balance and taking control of your money with management strategies that wouldn't allow you to bet more than 3% which is considerable. I haven't tried this strategy but I think it could work, and probably I would apply it soon in my betting.
It will only work if you are able to pick correctly to beat the odds and the rake, and you will inevitable have downswings, which is something OP hasn’t addressed. In poker, downswings make you go down the stakes, and those who don’t do so end up bankrupt. Downswings are more as a result of human psychology...not being able to control emotions rather than being bad at picking games or playing poker. Bad sports bettors and poker players are going to lose regardless of how conservative they play with money management. However, there are good players and bettors who fall victim to downswing. This is mainly because in both sports betting and poker, you have to maintain your emotions the entire time--doesn't matter if you are winning or losing. But most are human and they will fall victim to the emotion--when they win, sometimes they would get greedy cocking and over bet--when they lose sometimes they would try to win back what they lost the same day or with in the next few days by pushing bets that they normall wouldn't do. Even to an experienced bettor who is good with discipline it can happen at any moment--all it takes is a small pitfall and things can go out of hand. You will have to be like a robot through out and you have to stick to the working principles. This is the reason why i am running seperate portfolios. The portfolio where i follow my own picks, i started with smaller bankroll. The portfolios where i am following bettingresource picks are much bigger. For the bettingresource picks, my emotions won't play a part because I am blindly following their picks like a robot using the model. The portfolio that i follow with my own picks, i am trying my best to stick to the plan but i know at one point the winnings/or losing can affect my decisions on how many games i bet. I have seen my self in positions where i would bet games that i wouldn't normally bet after losing a bet....i.e. chasing. But i have been better since i started implementing this model. |
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The strategy has some sense and it’s similar to what good poker players do: to move up the stakes when they win. But you are painting it too nice: what about downswings? If the day ends in loss, you maintain the same unit size until a new high in bankroll is reached, and then adjust the unit accordingly. With this method you can double your bankroll pretty fast as long as your picking skills are half decent.
And what about ending some consecutive days with a loss? Don’t you need to adjust the size downwards? In a game where 99% of people lose you say that you only need half decent picking skills to have impressive gains. Sorry, too good to be true. Yes, downswings happen but this model addresses that. Usually many fall to big downswing because they do not have the patience or discipline to go navigate losing bets. The same thing also goes when they win--they get greedy and they want more of it and instead of waiting for the right bets, they will push bets to win more. Both winning and losing can accelerate someones downswings because of human psychology. This model addresses downswings. This model sets the max bet on any given wager at 3%, which would be a 10 unit bet. So if you have a $100 bankroll, the max bet you would make is is $3 (this is a 10 unti bet). And a 1 unit bet would be $0.30. In order for you to go bankrupt, you will need to go on a 333.33 unit downswing. If you are doing only max bets, that translates to losing more than 33 bets in a row. Yes, its possible to have such big downswing if you are terrible at picking games but if one is that terrible, they shouldn't venture into sports betting. 3% compounding is what they use with their picks because they tested it for over 10 years and it worked. But if you are really good capper you can increase that up to 5% but in those cases you have to be supercareful with the picks because 5% max bet means, 200 unit downswing instead of 333.33 unit downswing to bankrupt. And if you want to be extra conservative, you can set the max bet to 2% and in this case you would need a 500 unit downswing to go bankrcupt. Bettingresouce, recommends 3% for those who follow their picks because they tested their model and their picks for over 10 years. But my advise is that higher you bankroll, the more conservative you should be. For example, if you are bankroll is very small, like $1000 or less, its probably good to start with 5% max bet. Then drop to 4% once you double your bankroll to $2000, then to 3% once you grow to $4k. Then stick at 3% until your bankroll reaches $25k or so then drop it to 2.5% or 2% if you want to play it safe with the big bank. Since I started following this model, i have seen a big difference in my betting results. I didn't realize how much i was losing with my picks before because of not following a steady money management strategy. Right now I am running multiple portfolios with this model. 1 bankroll to follow my own picks and finally i am not losing--i am not winning big either because I am not that great at picks, however, small gain is better than having to deposit to the book every 2 weeks like i did in the past. My picking knowledge is limited to tennis and american football. I am also running a another porfolio with dedicated bankroll to bettingresource picks, and that one is going great as you can see from the spreadsheets. I like them because they have bets almost every day since they do all sports and this helps grow the bankroll fast. I am actually running two bankroll to follow their picks with that strategy. One with actual fiat currency and the other with bitcoin bankroll in a bitcoin sportsbook. IN my experience this is one of the best method to increase your bitcoin volume. What sucks is that since i started the bitcoin bankroll with the picks, that portfolio almost doubled since i started this summer, but the value of bitcoin has gone down a bit. But i am sure bitcoin will climb back up and I can reap the profits. The great thing about this model is that the growth is exponential as time goes on, especially when you start with a small bankroll. For example, when you start with $2500, you spend about 3 months to double the bankroll to $5k and its just $5k. But in the next 3 months its up to $10k which is a much bigger growth than your original growth in the 1st 3 months. By the time 12 months finishes, its $40k and so on. But yea, i wouldn't try this system if you are really bad at picking games or following a capper that is clueless. Even though 3% is somewhat conservative and can accomodate a 333.33 unti downswing, you still need to be decent handicapping games and playing value bets. |
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Its amazing how many people think that its impossible to win in sports betting. Its true you cannot win in any casino games because they are all -ev games but sports betting is the only thing that you can use skill to turn it into +ev and in turn win. However, 99% of the bettors lose in sports betting. Some lose because they are horrible in picking games. But most lose even if they are good in picking games because they lack the discipline to manager the money and bankroll. If you can show little patience and composure, you can turn a small bankroll into a bankroll into a fortune. The money management to use is the 3% max bet compounding strategy. You can read that money management in depth there but in short it is a 1 to 10 unit scale where the max bet (10 unit bet) is 3%. This means each unit is 0.3% of the bankroll. You will never bet more than 3% on any games (10 units). Basically after 1 betting day, you compound the winnings into the bankroll and adjust the unit size accordingly. If the day ends in loss, you maintain the same unit size until a new high in bankroll is reached, and then adjust the unit accordingly. With this method you can double your bankroll pretty fast as long as your picking skills are half decent. Those guys double the bankroll on average about every 3 months. This means after 12 months you would have doubled the bankroll 4 times. So if you start with a 5k bankroll and use the compounding method, your bankroll would be 10k after 3 months, 20k after 6 months....80k after 12 months. You can check the picks in thisspreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSm1yWRXjlPfjr4EX3NPBbHJ2te-KaKkBBKaej_3Pw1V_6Dh6yPD6Me6MoT16lhtsUva84YUTnttn67/pubhtml The log section has all the picks, the dashboard shows the growth summary and the daily shows the daily ups and downs. I am running two portfolios with those picks....one with $10k bankroll in pinnacle and the other with 2bitcoin bankroll in nitrogen. I am loving the bitcoin portfolio because its one of the best way to increase your bitcoin volume. |
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Its amazing how many people think that its impossible to win in sports betting. Its true you cannot win in any casino games because they are all -ev games but sports betting is the only thing that you can use skill to turn it into +ev and in turn win. However, 99% of the bettors lose in sports betting. Some lose because they are horrible in picking games. But most lose even if they are good in picking games because they lack the discipline to manager the money and bankroll. If you can show little patience and composure, you can turn a small bankroll into a bankroll into a fortune. The money management to use is the 3% max bet compounding strategy. You can read that money management in depth there but in short it is a 1 to 10 unit scale where the max bet (10 unit bet) is 3%. This means each unit is 0.3% of the bankroll. You will never bet more than 3% on any games (10 units). Basically after 1 betting day, you compound the winnings into the bankroll and adjust the unit size accordingly. If the day ends in loss, you maintain the same unit size until a new high in bankroll is reached, and then adjust the unit accordingly. With this method you can double your bankroll pretty fast as long as your picking skills are half decent. Those guys double the bankroll on average about every 3 months. This means after 12 months you would have doubled the bankroll 4 times. So if you start with a 5k bankroll and use the compounding method, your bankroll would be 10k after 3 months, 20k after 6 months....80k after 12 months. You can check the picks in thisspreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CSvrT3osJos4P-Fni102v5fvZqaqm8Q/edit#gid=644533306 The log section has all the picks, the dashboard shows the growth summary and the daily shows the daily ups and downs. I am running two portfolios with those picks....one with $10k bankroll in pinnacle and the other with 2bitcoin bankroll in nitrogen. I am loving the bitcoin portfolio because its one of the best way to increase your bitcoin volume. |
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I was on the road and couldn't get in to post the late plays yesterday....its a shame because they won. Instead of 3-0 will have to settle for 1-0 yesterday.
Today only one play...
NFL: Buffalo +2 against Cincinnati 10/10 units
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was busy during the week and i couldn't login on my smart phone to post the picks when i received them by email. sucks because there was 2 winners during the week.
anyways today.
michigan st +21 (1.91) against ohio state in ncaaf. they said they will send out more in 1 hour, so i will post when i get them.
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Casino games are -ev and you cannot make money long term, you will lose money if you try to play in casino trying to make a living out of it. Only casino games that can be controlled with skill is live poker or sports betting if they offer sports betting.
Hyips are also long term -ev. Majority of HYIP models are pyramid scheme and eventually they won't pay you.
Invest in sports handicapping service that has won long term. I have been with bettingresource.com for years and they are by far the best investment opportunity for anyone with a bankroll of 5k to 250k. I make a living betting their picks with their money management. But you will need good books like pinnacle to bet their picks. Most other books will kick you out or limit your wager if you bet only their picks.
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Nhl Reg time only: Chicago -0.5 (2.13) against montreal 10/10 units
NBA: Minnesota -4 (1.95) against La Lakers 10/10 units
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You can also keep track of losing and winning bets. People cannot be oriented just by posting bets in here, they need units, win/loss ratio, ROI so far positive or negative whatever it is. You will not have any real follower by just posting bets here. You need to provide full stats too so the people can decide are you a good tipster or the one you claim to follow and then they can follow you if the stats are in your favor.
I am not expecting a following. If someone wants to make money they can follow, if they don't want they can move along. These tips are from a great tipster that i follow and i posted great picks for October and so far on fire for November. I am limited in square books like bet365 following these picks. I only play most of my games in pinnacle and some in betcris. I am posting this because someone here asked me to post the picks when i complained about bet365 so i am posting if anyone else gets limited or banned form bet365. Those who follow the picks know the picks are making them money and they will follow weather i keep record or not. You want me to make you money and do the accounting for you too  |
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Marshal +8.5 (-110) against Middle Tenn St in Ncaaf 10/10 units
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nhl: Ottawa 2.00 against LA (ot included) 10/10 units
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nba: golden st -15.5 (1.95) against dallas
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NHL with ot: Boston (2.70) to beat montreal
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Today in NFL:
Miami -3.5 (1.91) against NY Jets
Dallas -7.5 (1.98) against Dallas
both 10/10 units
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