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Why then has the price been climbing pretty steadily? (ignoring the bubble from last month of course)
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All this talk I see of the difficulty going up to 100+ million and that ASIC's will bring GPU's daily reward down by many factors of 10/etc are really confusing me... Isn't it pretty safe to assume that due to the mass increase of $$$ put into "strengthing" (not speeding up, the difficulty adjust will maintain the same speed more or less) the network give us at least a somewhat linear change in BTC trade value? I don't expect it to level out overnight, surely as ASIC's come online the GPU $$$ daily reward will seem to go to shit, but 5-6 months down the road if BTC is at $500/coin (which is a prediction nobody can deny or confirm) will the GPU guys really have missed the boat?
Why do I think the price will rise? because the increase in hashrate will make BTC be that much more "scarce."
Flame suit: ON!
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OK but if I click on invalid block I get "Block Not Found" so I can't see timestamp to compare them. I'm interested in time when it was send to network not the time it was fond by the pool because nobody is saying the time is synchronised... EDIT: just figure it out. It took 2 minutes not 2 seconds(if time is synchronised). This is too long not to detect a new block. For blockchain it doesn't matter but for a pool this it too long... If you have cgminer you can see new block detected msg before you see that info on blockchain... Sometime it is a big difference up to a minute or more. EDIT2: Look at differences in time for last block. 18078 2013-05-17 21:59:35 2:25:00 Timestamp 2013-05-17 21:59:18 The time received by the network will be the more accurate time, which is only a 2 second difference. The timestamp can be off by up to 2 hours ahead, and the median time of the last 11 blocks behind. Because of this, miners will sometimes fudge the timestamp as somewhat of an extra nonce value. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Block_timestampReceived time BitMinter: 00:59:33 vs. Slush's Block: 00:59:30 Isn't receive time diffident for anyone on the network? And if this would be a case Slush should get this one... Since BitMinter doesn't show their generation time to the second, it would be hard to compare. Blockchain.info received theirs 3 seconds after Slush's was generated. But based on our most recent one, 236670, the time for it to propagate from generation on Slush to the time Blockchain.info sees it is about a minute. By that, BitMinter may still have generated it before Slush. Block 236670 Found at (Slush's Pool): 21:59:35 Block 236670 Received Time (Blockchain.info): 22:00:24 Is this why my most recent payout still has 0 conformations? |
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I think the short answer is that it is not explicitly illegal.
One could probably argue his way into telling you that breathing is illegal in certain circumstances...
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I'm on board now... I hadn't realized the most crucial step of the equation..
I thought it was:
score = score + exp(round_time)
But instead it is:
score = score + exp(round_time/C)
Gives me an immense respect for slush and his systems... crunching that large of table of data 24/7 reliably is an immense undertaking! There is a significantly larger amount of data logged per worker than I had previously even begun to fathom.
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Slush's pool is scored proportional and so is not much like PPLNS either.
So then how do we explain my math at the bottom of the previous page? Edit: Oh now I see vs3.... that makes quite a bit more sense... thanks! |
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I'm curious as to your reasoning to why you think you deserved 54% payout in the 2nd round when you submitted 82% as many shares/minute as the round before... aka... did 82% as much work per X time.
The reason is - this is not a PPS (pay-per-share) pool, but more like a PPLNS (pay-per-last-N-shares). In Slush's case "last" is about an hour, but when you add exponentially lower score to the older shares - it's really about the last 15-20min. Many people get confused in this exact way - the number of shares DOES NOT mean a proportional payout. It would be proportional in a PPS pool, which this one IS NOT. It is the TIME of those shares that matters (and by time I'm referring to how old the shares are, or in other words - how closely before the end of the round did you submit them). So, back to your question - I learned (although too late) that one of my miners stopped submitting shares, and unfortunately it stopped closer to the beginning than to the end of that round. Hence the payout. I know how Slush's scoring works and that's why I'm not surprised by the result. I see... I'll have to look more into this, I thought the N in PPLNS was in relation to the round as a whole... In that N being a variable was fixed to the duration of the round. If you miner stopped near the beginning of the round, how can you be expected to have pulled a higher total pool percentage? |
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I'm curious as to your reasoning to why you think you deserved 54% payout in the 2nd round when you submitted 82% as many shares/minute as the round before... aka... did 82% as much work per X time.
Or if we look at total contribution per pool shares...
You got .00016% total pool shares for the lesser paid round, and .00014% total shares for the better paid round. You actually contributed 14% more of the total shares on the round where you received 46% less reward.
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I give it 2 weeks before the US realizes that taxing BTC means US patrons will simply convert their BTC to a lower-taxed to-USD conversion currency first...
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Just posting to acknowledge that in the last ~30 hours I haven't seen any shorted blocks like I'd been seeing the past few days.
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No help?  |
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If you could get one RIGHT NOW they'd pay for themselves in about 9-10 days... unfortunately there still isn't any real conformation that they are shipping in any kind of significant quantity... could be over a year before you get one you order... :/
by then it's not unlikely people will be pushing 500+ghash on their own with DIY asic chips.
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From Butterfly Labs website:
"Your hosted units will be added to a mining farm and you will be paid out regularly based on their collective output. Currently, the payout is approximately every two days, depending on luck. As difficulty increases, payout times may get longer or the payout threshold may be reduced to bring it back to every 2 days or so.
Your equipment will be housed in one of three data centers in the Kansas City area (With a 4th coming online in the next 6 months). Each center is guarded by multiple security procedures, including biometric identification, key card access, elevator lock outs and human verification. Fire suppression and notification are present in all datacenters. Redundant power is provided by a generator and for an additional fee can be provided by battery as a UPS.
Hosted units will be maintained by a BFL representative should a failure occur and replacement/repair is usually conducted the same day. There is no cost for repair/replacement of failed units that are under warranty."
Perhaps this explains where the output of their production mainly headed ... for secret mining farms in Kansas. If we are lucky ordinary folk may start receiving after October when difficulty rates make mining barely worthwhile except for mining farms. Then the tornado hit and the girl was whisked away from the mining farm into a magical land, met a lion, a tin-man and a scarecrow ... and sought out the Wizard of Asic.
Man you should be a correspondant for fox... you left out the paragraph that would otherwise have left this FAQ section unbiased:  |
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Just confirming that about 20% of blocks (6 of the 30 currently on the statistic page) I am only getting about 45% of what I should be as a reward.
This is a net loss of ~9% which at 950mhash isn't exactly devastating... but it's quite noticeable and has been going on for quite some time.
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Or is there another headless USB-boot OS I can set up easily which will auto-mine on LAN boot?
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Is there some simple way to compile CG miner into this OS? (see first link in OP)
I'm horrible with linux...what I love about this is the thing runs off that USB drive, boots on LAN, and automatically goes away into mining. Don't need a HDD, nor do I need to run any kind of fancy pants OS. Plus, if the power goes out, it'll just fire right back up and get back to work without any intervention!
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Running this on a headless machine: http://live-miner.github.io/The thing is ticking away fine at ~380mhash/s and feeding to my pool:  PhenomII 955 on an ASUS M478T-E motherboard with 4GB ram and a 6870 I was able to underclock the phenomII 955 to 1ghz in the bios... but I can't for the life of me get the GPU to overclock! In the live-miner.conf I set these arguments: # poclbm arguments; overriden by 'live-miner.args' boot parameter
LIVE_MINER_ARGS='-v -f 0 --gpu-engine 1000 --gpu-memclock 300'
The memory downclocks to 300mhz, but then the core drops to 183mhz and the GPU voltage stays at 0.8V! I tried removing the --gpu-engine 1000 argument thinking I'll run the stock clock and lower the memory clock to save on some heat, but I get the same 183mhz/300mhz 0.8V result... If I remove both args then it goes back to the stock clocks. What gives?! |
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It bothers me when I see people compare bitcoin to the stock market. While I realize we are trading a commodity AND a currency at the same time... it's really hard to realize that selling bitcoin doesn't actually hurt anyone.
Even if one singular person bought all current bitcoin on the market at this second, the network would still be generating 250 BTC/hour on average... which would in turn make those btc even MORE scarce, thus the USD/EUR/etc people would be willing to pay for each would climb more.
On the flipside, if everyone SOLD all bitcoin on the market right this second, someone would still have to HAVE all of the bitcoin.... and again, we'd still be chugging out 250/hour, and thus the price people will be willing to pay goes up... the demand really doesn't change in relation to the supply as it does with most conventional currencies or commodities.
The only thing that can hurt bitcoin (in terms of it's dollar value) is if all of the exchanges were to go down simultaneously.
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With what I come up with on bitparking's PPS rate, I would have to mine for almost 33 hours (on average) to get what I've been averaging with 19 hours mining on slush's pool...
So back on topic:
Is there no way to see if there was a networking issue or something else preventing me from submitting shares for almost half an hour, or should I just chalk it up to being extremely unlucky for a few rounds per day?
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