Think about it hard for 5 minutes. If you really think it's real value is 100k, then why don't you buy it right now at 100k ? Why people are not selling at 100k since the beginning ? Because you think you are an early adopter forseeing a future value increase ? And then if it's the only reason to buy it, then what when it reach 100k, which should be the real value according to those expert ? Other people who bought it to you at 100K will be saying expert say it can reach 200k to make the same profits ? When does this end ?

An investement in the sense something that grow in value can only happen if some value is created along the way. Hoarding them on an exchange with hit and run strategy doesnt add any value to it. On the contrary.

And it can never be recognized as legal tender by anyone a little bit serious as long as this tendancy dominate the market.

Giving hope ok look like make-believe fairy tales if it doesnt add a value in a buisness or another.

Nobody wants to use it if they needs to loose sleep and spend their life monitoring trading chart fearfully watching every move. Its the perfect definition of a very bad currency.

Merchants are not going to make their accounting on a daily basis, maybe every month or mostly every year when they fill their tax declaration. For the vast majority they wont spend their life on a trading chart to know if the last transactions is going to make them rich or bankrupted.

This logic is always moot, its like if i say i will start to hoard rocks, supply and demand the value is subjective someone is going to buy it at 100k. My rocks are like no other rocks. Does it looks like a sound logic to you ?

The fact that this behavior was anticipated this the very beginning, seen by satoshi hal finney and other since the very beginning show that its no different from any other market that existed before since market exists.

Either it takes off as a currency spent to buy good or it dies in the long run, or just become a niche for gamblers and crazy speculators spending their day on trading chart trying to figure when to enter and leave at the expanse of others in a null sum game.



And historically all currencies arose from some kind of commodity backing. Its not even the way its used but how its supposed to behave as a market.

The two kind of people i saw saying this model is ok are :

1. People seeing the pyramid scheme potential rubbing their hand seeing they are going to make millions as eraly adopter. As of today most of the post i see on this board are people still behaving as early investors in a pyramid scheme.

2. People who are more sound and rational saying that it doesnt make sense in the long run to use it this way, that early adopter can behave like this and it was more or less on purpose to give an incencitive to early adopters but the only way that make sense in the long term is the adoption as a currency with a dynamic roughly appraoching a commodity market.


Otherwise its only people playing hit and run with enter/exit strategy to extract a quick profit out of it which cannot last for ever and makes unusable as a currency which is the only way forward in the long run.

I just finished reading the whole thread it was very interesting.

The prediction of the OP was still very good so far that the model would make bitcoin fail as a currency because of the high investibility that would encourage people to hoard it and benefit from it as a pseudo pyramid scheme than using it as a currency.

The symptoms he described as people would only buy or sell it with a sweat of anxiety being extremely fearfull of sudden price move in one direction or another loosing sleep over trading chart rather than quietly using it as a currency to be spent to buy things as it was intended has fully realise.

I dont think this was the intention i see more the dynamic as it was the only option to launch it initially is to leave the potential for a huge profit to attract new users and it would probably never have taken off without this, with the halving increasing as bitcoin take popularity and risk of it being abandonned diminish. The fact that the coin he mined didnt move tend to proove this intention.

Knowing that i didnt see any counter argument against the logic of hoarding it as a speculative asset is just going to a dead end in the long run, as the utility as a spending tool goes to zero and the ever going demand based on prospective of making a future profit on the sale cannot be sustainable.

It cannot even really stabilise its funny to see people making this argument when btc was at 10$ saying it will probably stabilise latter as it gain traction but not at all, even at 50k$ and billioneres getting in the game its still the same yoyo of sudden bursts and crashes.

Some people described the mecanics of this very early actually. If there is no incensitive to spend it and only to hoard it waiting for the price to increase it can never be stable and only go through yoyo of bubble and bursts until it finally crash because it cant be told to be a good store of value with such speculative hoarding use without any value added, can never stabilise even a little, cannot be used a currency either and in the end going to be sacrified for all intent and purpose in the name of short term greed.

Maybe im a bit pessimistic but i dont see how the situation could evolve otherwise.

As a viable currency or even a store of value it should behave roughly as a commodity but clearly its not and probably never will.

The problem imo is that blockchain works well when you have to deal with data that is generated according to certain condition defined by the protocol, for physical / material assets not so much, unless the information can be verified by the whole network which is very unlikely for real estate, and it ends up depending on trusted third parties so blockchain are more going to be a waste than anything.

Even if the value is at least partially subjective, it doesn't mean there is no good reason for any individual to estimate the price at this or that based on their own subjective valuation and needs.


Other coins might have their own model, you can find like nushare who had another model, or coins with multiple tokens some pegged to fiat or other, some that are used to represent ownsership or seen as a share, or are not made as a currency or commodity.

From what i understand, people who are involved in ponzi often don't even do it on purpose. Even madov i think i remember it's the same case, maybe he said this to whitehash himself thought. But often you have people who want to start a legit buisness, and start to promise huge interest rate, but then they can't realise those interest, but ends up with lot of monney in their hand, and go into faking it until they make it by paying interest with the monney they have. But huge interest rates are hard to make and it often ends bad with those so called ponzi schemes.


I believe it must be very easy to slip on the slippery slope without even really being realizing that the outcome is going to be bad or realising how the dynamics is playing out in the long run. Especially in the first stage when the punchline work and there is a good stream of new investor flocking in.

So morality often be careful when big interest are promised without a solid plan behind. Because needs to be very good to pull good interest rates in a sustainable way.

maybe it would need a system of community mannaged black listed address, but not sure how that would be working out

yes he wants to put a QR code everywhere, now with the vaccinal pass it's a good thing i'm not going out much

He second to last post was about the "swarm headed to us" after the press started to associate wikileaks with bitcoin.

Ok too bad thanks !

Im ok with this distinction but then still if there is some appreciable value and the price differ too much from it, it means someone is making a loss and the buisness is not sustainable in a free market.

Its exemple i took before with asset arbitration with the coffee.

It can be used in the chain in an useful buisness as a paiment system ? Like a database or network service ?

Its a digital economy so of course you are not going to build a car with it.

Maybe its like let say an carburetor,  in itself it has no use, but as part of car in use then it does.

Then if you want to hoard carburetors without there are much functionning cars using expecting to make a fortune out of it .. well good luck with that.

The problem with most crypto project is they try to fit in a classic financial model with this triangle

Developpers - investors - end users.

With Bitcoin the situation is pretty clear since the beginning , satoshi didnt really get paid for the developpment, there is no known investor, so its supposed to be mostly focused on utility value.

Now most coin try to achieve the three ends of the triangle which is supposed to pay developpers AND investors AND  providing utility value at the same time which look a bit like shrodinger coin.

Satoshi didnt sell an investement model to pay a team of developpers that would yeld some return.

Trying to sell cryptos as an investement can only be a flawed model in the long run imo.

The way i see it, if you see short term you pay developpers with the money, medium term its the investors, long term its the utility value for users.

Most crypto projects see short to medium term. And end up as pseudo ponzi boarding user as pseudo investors to pay back the initial investors back, and the utility value goes down the drain.

In the model of bitcoin its only long term on the utility value.

Yes its a bit the point if everyone just sit on their coin waiting for the value to rise it very likely nothing is going to happen and the price is just going to crash.

Ok



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But it would not be for buying it only for the purpose of mining but for those who already have one.

This logic make sense but still needs to ask why would people would buy it to begin with. If its only to expect a future profit by holding it, i have hard time to see how it would make sense in the long term.

If you just think you are going to sell it back at roughly the same price you bought it the logic holds.

If you just buy it to sell it back at significantly higher price should really wonder what would really move the market enough from the moment you buy to the future moment you want to sell. If not some form of market cornering that cannot be sustainable in a free market.

And it doesnt account for people who would spend it to buy something which would not directly translate to an euro/dollar valuation. In a bitcoin utopia you would expect a whole economic network around it in sort that it doesnt even hit an exchange with fiat.

And its more like this that bitcoin should develop with the demand as a paiment system with the demand as bitcoin being superior to competitor system.

I dont see any other way that it can develop long term.

It could be possible, im working on system like this, it would have many advantage, but it needs an efficient way to prune the data in sort that each node can filter the data it want to host, some spv client, the data not used is not hosted by any node anymore, each nodes only download the data it uses, maybe from contact list or groups.

But twitter is also fat, for this to work smoothly it would need something that discourage low value content to clog the network, everyone know the buisness model of big social network is not on the value of the content. It works with data selling, targetted advertising etc

Maybe for micro blogging it would be more possible.

I should post post this in altcoin forum then ? I thought it was the altcoin mining forum.

I was not asking especially for bitcoin, i know bitcoin is not home minable.

Its more in general what is the hash rate to expect from it compared to a pc graphic card and if it could be efficient for some hash algorithm.

There is no direct incentivie to it, but as i understand it from the original discussion it seem to me the only way bitcoin can really gain long term value is using it as a medium of exchange, if everyone just hoard their coin in a wallet without motion, the long term value is limited.

found another interesting post related to the topic

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415




I need to read more, but already as much as i see reference to merchent, transaction, and regular thing, i never see a mention of the merit of hoarding it as something that would really add long term value to bitcoin.