So, those who wanted to buy at $50... is your finger itching yet?  |
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Now at $75. My guess is it will venture back to $82 to create something looking like a reverse head and shoulder on the 4h candles. |
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The volume on this rally has been decent, i'm not sure i'd consider buying back in yet though. If we break 85 i'll consider it a legit rally. Until then, i'm still bearish.
So once it has moved up more than 28%, THEN you will buy?  |
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$85  |
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Now testing the bears' will. Who will crack before $100 and buy back?  |
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When everyone was bullish, if the market went down, it was manipulation. When everyone is bearish, if the market goes up, it's manipulation.  |
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You should laugh, but I have a feeling, based on special subset of my indicators, which says that my short buy @~65 may transform into long position. 30% probability estimation.
Really good call on this! Aren't you supposed to wait for a climb near $100 before saying good call? For what's it's worth, kudos Lucif on the first part of your prediction. (The short buy.) |
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Bull traps are guaranteed. Watch as sentiment reverses as the pigs buy in and get slaughtered. You know the market will try very hard to shake us on our ground, right? Are you sure of your position? Really, really sure?  |
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No? Setting aside percentage (because we are not going to agree on where the bubbles began), look at the volume between 2011 and 2013. Look at media coverage in 2011 vs 2013. Look at the hype on this forum in 2011 vs 2013. How exactly was the bubble bigger in 2011? I honestly don't see it. volume chart and closing price for reference:   I prefer to look at prices (and pretty much everything) with a log scale:  2011 seems bigger and steeper. Anyhow, how deep we go will probably settle this. Let's necro this thread in a year! |
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Of course there is. I said wising up, not geniuses. But I don't see as much deniers. |
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(2011 price / 2011 ecosystem) > (2013 price / 2013 ecosystem) Are we going to disagree on this also?  edit: Why is that metric more important to quantifying the bubble than things volume, media coverage, and hype within the community (or the aggregate data of those metrics combined)? All those must be compared with the current ecosystem. I don't care if the volume is 10 times bigger if there's a hundred times more way to use Bitcoin. edit 2: All those "metrics" mean nothing in a vacuum. Is the USD in a bubble? Daily volume is huuuuuge! There's also a massive media coverage and hype in the community. |
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Reddit is wising up: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hroin/how_low_do_you_think_btc_is_gonna_go/I think it'll go to around 50. I also see it going back down to the previous crash price of 30. Worst case, $30. Best case, $64 then grind sideways for a bit before the next hype-mania cycle. likely lower than 50, likely higher than 32 Step of dropping isn't big now, I think it would be 20-30 for example. It will raise when people will buy cheap BTC. It may be $5 for example Which means that if you are planning on buying at around $50 or $30, you aren't alone anymore. |
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I look at the Bitcoin "ecosystem" and compare it with the price.
From the unencrypted wallet.dat in 2011 to casually paying my SSL certificates with bitcoins in 2013.
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Sure, but I wouldn't call this bubble bigger than the 2011 one.
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That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.
IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller. $1-2 ---> $30 15-30 folds $30 ---> $266 8 folds |
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$15 is a good price If it hits that price, I am backing up the truck. Might happen though. Will you? The more it drops, the less it seems interesting. Everyone would have sold his mother to get a change to buy $70 when it was $250. Now look around... nobody wants to buy. |
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You should laugh, but I have a feeling, based on special subset of my indicators, which says that my short buy @~65 may transform into long position. 30% probability estimation.
Lol. |
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Yeah ... that looks like a bullish formation to me ... NOT I guess you covered your short then Actually, I did close my short. We dropped almost 40% without any major rebound. Edit:  |
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3k wall at $70 is down. Panic buying commencing.
"What if I can't buy bitcoins below $55 and miss the opportunity?" * Remembers the $266 * "Oh my gauuuud! Buy!"  |
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Simply amazing. I remember holding all my coins tightly at $20, saying to myself "but but... why are they selling?!" Then $15, $10, $5... I did learn the hard way. At least I bought some at $4. |
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