please please please don't deploy before avalon batch 3, please please please  Err, what? Even if we deploy the full 50 TH/s, we won't have 51%. More importantly, if last time is any indication, it takes a *long* time to deploy that many servers. Stop spreading fud. |
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Data centers in china are extremely expensive. It isn't a 1:1 comparison.
All the more reason to start looking for cheap power at data centers outside of China. Iceland, Canada, Washington, and Nevada all have cheap power. So do Belarus and Ukraine, from what I hear around here. Currently it might be more worthwhile to deploy it in China for faster turnarounds - no shipping, export/customs issues .. ^ This. We can restructure for a lower cost structure later. |
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Part of my day-to-day work is running a data center, if you guys are in Toronto, more than willing to volunteer my time ~~
^This. AM should have planned out exactly which data centers to deploy at ahead of time. The data centers should be selected on the basis of cheap power and proximity to their pools' hosts. Scrambling around building their own is a big loss of time and focus from their core competency of designing, producing, and running ASICs. Data centers in china are extremely expensive. It isn't a 1:1 comparison. |
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this is because some of the investors are short-sighten in my opinion. They can only see the projected lowering in dividends and can't think long-term enough to wait for deployment of the 50 Thash/s batch I think exactly the same. The rumours spread that now its not only half the dividend but maybe even a fourth only because of kept investment money is probably the reason for this. Plus the long lasting 6TH/s isnt advantageous. So i expected a drop. But im astonished how low it fell. I think that will go up soon again. At least in 8 days, when the next real dividend is paid. A quick back-of-the-envelope valuation: imagine they reach the goal of 10% of the network hashing power, meaning 360 BTC/day, then annualise it and apply a P/E ratio of, say, 10, and you should end up at 3.285 BTC/share. So it appears slightly undervalued in the market today... (or people in general don't believe ASICMINER can keep 10% of total hashing power) Possible, but also possible that people just can't/haven't done the math. Also P/E ratios in the bitcoin world tend to be much higher because there is no SEC regulation, so there is always a higher risk someone could just take the money and run. Still, assuming asicminer doesn't get killed by BFL/Avalon shipping, a 0.7 valuation is pretty cheap IMO. |
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So it's exactly as I've written it - there are 400k shares, 250k owns Bitfountain and 150k is owned by smaller investors.
Look up the definition of "exactly" and spare us, please.  Introduction
ASICMINER is a virtual identity totally held by investors of the Bitfountain company. The Bitfountain company's business includes mining with self-built ASIC devices, as well as the sales of them. Currently ASICMINER shareholders holds 163,962 shares, while Bitfountain shareholders holds 236,038 shares.
Now im wondering about these numbers. I might remembering wrong but i believe the last stats at glbse showed around 145xxx shares sold. Something around that. Now its 163,962 shares. Are the difference the shares that werent traded through glbse? Then thats probably the foundation of the confusion about the real amount of sold shares. It's amazing how long this confusion lasts. The blame must lie somewhere between the unorthodox nature of this investment (i.e. self-managed) and the fallout from GLBSE. Normally all equity has to be clearly distributed BEFORE fund-raising, and this was stated in the original contract. That's why in principle 200k shares are associated with the founders (bitfountain) and 200k are associated with the equity ASICMINER. The fact that not all shares were sold doesn't automatically upgrade the share holdings of the founders. The 35k shares are unsold equity and owned by the "company" bitfountain and can be used in future fund raising. All dividends payed to these 35k shares goes directly into retained earnings, which may make its way into dividend payments again. (Thus in effect the "dividend" payed to the 35k gets redistributed in a 200k:165k fashion between the founders and the ASICMINER shareholders). The recursion here can be a bit confusing at first, but is only important when dividends are payed. Thus the proper distribution for dividends is 200k:165k, and NOT 235k:165k. However, for simplicity bitfountain may decide to pay dividends according to the 1/400,000 rule, at which the distribution becomes 200k:200k, and the 35k dividends to the unsold equity makes it into the next dividend payment or company financing, because they act as retained earnings... friedcat may want to clearly make a statement on how he wants to implement this (200k:165k or 200k:200k with delayed dividend), before he prepares the next dividend payments and signs off the financial statements. If this is in fact the position of the company, awesome. It is good to finally have clarification on that point. |
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Hi, I' a BTC newbie who spent last 4-5 hours reading through 132 pages of discussions.  A big congrats to you who bought the IPO, and applause to friedcat who has done a splendid job with this Company. A part of me feels like the train has already left the station, and if you want on board, you get to pay an hefty price, while a part of the reward (the dividends) is just about to be lowered. Another part is saying that I am in this for the long run. I am not interested in getting my Money back in a couple months, I want to invest in what I believe can be a real success in the future. And Reading friedcat's weekly statements, and the level of professionalism he is delivering is surely giving a lot of confidence. I am thinking of investing in ASICMINER, and I just want to confirm that I have understood this correctly: - Share prices of IPO was 0.1 BTC / share, now they are ~0.8 BTC, so the value have already grown by roughly 8 times? - Dividends has so far been about BTC0.02 - BTC0.025 / share / week, but it will be cut in half by next week, giving more revenue to the Company. I am guessing this will go to future investments expanding the rigs and for future sales of ASIC's? Also perhaps a swimming pool for friedcat, well earned if I might say so. - So far there have been alot of discussions regarding ASICMINER's hashing power, and rewards from that. But I have not seen much about future sale of ASIC rigs. Is not that also a relevant thing to take into consideration when trying to find the value of a share? Thanx to you all for giving me an interesing read this morning!  You should evaluate it a bit differently than that. Firstly, the original post and plan was for the company to reinvest 50% of its earnings into future growth, which has not started yet. In addition, so far the creators of the company have not been taking their cut of the profits. So the dividend will be cut by potentially 75%, perhaps more if the team & board determine that more aggressive reinvestment is needed in light of the butterfly labs delays and avalon shipping delays. But that reinvestment, if successful, will ultimately surface itself in share price gains. You should evaluate it based on two things- When asicminer is able to bring more hashing power online(Currently deployment is a bit slow), and when the competition is able to ship(and how fast). If the competition is able to ship enough asics to bring online 1,000+ TH/s by August, Asicminer is indeed overpriced right now. If the competition struggles to bring online under 100 TH/s by August, asicminer is actually pretty cheap in terms of ROI potential. It is not an easy price to evaluate, which is why we have markets to try to do it for us. |
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Buy 200 @ 0.85 from ineededausername
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Hmm, sorry for the trouble but it looks like these are being bought up quick. Buy 250 @ 0.72 @gsan. |
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Buy 150 @ 0.72 (from gsan)
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Will this mess cause the difficulty to increase less the next time it changes? Or will it not have an affect (or only a marginal one)?
It should cause it to rise by less. It will also mean next difficulty change will take longer to reach - so more blocks mined at the current difficulty. To that limited extent it helps ASICMINER - but that's offset if BTCguild were previously mining on the v0.8, as all work done on the (soon to be) orphaned part of the chain will be lost. Depends a bit on the pool's policy for paying for orphaned blocks as well. FYI: BTC Guild pays orphaned blocks on PPS (by definition, PPS pays orphaned blocks). We also pay for them on PPLNS, so this fork event hasn't had any affect on ASICMINER earnings passed through from BTC Guild. I kinda feel sorry for pool owners who have that policy... this could be a huge sum of orphaned coins out of their pocket.  |
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rs1qm6S8jBre51q4xwK3PjCuVaFtpGR5bA
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Can you elaborate on where you are hashing at the moment and under which usernames/IDs.... So we can keep track of our hashing power :-)
I would also like to know that The ~4 TH/s on BTCGuild is pretty clear, But I'm not sure whether to add Anonymous from ozco.in to the graph of ASICMINER Hashing Speed. (When the bitfountainx user stopped, the Anonymous user hashrate rised as mentioned here. And the next morning the opposite happened as I mentioned. here. IF that is true, that would mean an average Hash Speed of 7 / 8 TH/s at the moment. Honestly I'd rather them not tell us. If we know where/how much we are hashing, our competition can make estimates and move to counter our hashing. The lack of knowledge about our hashpower may make them hesitate(or rashly bite off more than they can chew). If they get in the habit of keeping things under wraps now, ultimately shareholders may benefit more than the comfort of having numbers. |
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Honestly I don't think any of us are in a position to second guess friedcat. If he is wondering if the shareholders would I've ok with temporary hires to bring them online faster, the answer is yes. However:
1. Temporary hires tend to be lower quality because few people want short term work
2. Temps are more likely to break extremely valuable components.
3. Hiring temps takes time(for all we know he could have been doing it already)
4. Training temps and ramping them up takes time.
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Is there an exchange where BTCMC can be bought now? Or is anyone looking to sell shares? (And also, what prices have shares sold for recently?)
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If the big bad US government made bitcoin illegal, it could actually make a lot of things more difficult for everyone.
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Ripple seems way too sketch for me.
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how long would do you guys think you'd have to wait to receive a rig buying from the bfl site?
I am hoping to get a few people together to buy about 2-4 rigs.
what do people think?
what do you see happening to difficulty levels?
I know this is talked about a lot but I'm only limited to this forum thus far so forgive me.
It is probably too late. Depends on a lot of factors which are unpredictable. You'll need to do a worst case evaluation. |
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Hi! Registered a long time ago, didn't post due to newbie restrictions. Now need to break out of the newbie forum.
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Protip: "SELL SELL SELL" causes a price crash.
Protip: overpriced valuations causes a price crash. Not that that's what we're in, but that is the root cause. |
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