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This poll should be kept alive, as an indicator of the relative weight of bears versus bulls.
Clearly the vast majority of speculators (on this forum) are wildly bullish...
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Fascinating poll.
Only 5% think the price will be lower than today!
The problem is that people on this forum probably only have a tiny fraction of the bitcoins, have no resources to buy more, and don't believe enough in their convictions to take a leveraged position.
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Why not get through $1000 first? There's still quite a bit of naysayers realists other people who think we can't even get past $1000 this year... There is no easy money in the world. This is very true. Bitcoin entered widespread investor awareness at the end of 2013, with the big price spike. Now it is fairly widely known, with actors and the like saying they will invest in it, during 2014. Therefore, it's too late for this to be a simple vehicle for a person with say, $20,000 to invest (c.40BTC) to become a millionaire. Life is not that easy. People turn 20k into 1000k when they spot something that very few other people have. BTC has already passed that stage. The only way this sort of thing will happen is if something completely unexpected occurs, which forces the world to adopt BTC to a far greater extent than people think currently. So we need to have a 'hyper-inflation' or similar scenario, to go to the moon, imo. |
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Diversification merely decreases variance, but does not change expected return.
Whether this is wise depends on how bad it would be to lose a lot of your money (which depends on stuff like how old you are, if you have kids, a stable job etc.).
Sometimes it's better not to have too many eggs in your basket so you can watch the eggs that you have closely enough (or avoid having to spend a disproportionate amount of time in a $100 "investment").
For sure it is a good default advice to follow, but it shouldn't always be the rule.
I agree, but the original poster clearly is not enjoying the variance. Clearly the variance is a huge concern to him. If he's fretting this much over losing a bit under half the value, in purchasing power terms, then how would he feel if it fell to zero? If he 'knew' that BTC is going to rise significantly, as many posters on here do, then sure he should stick with the one egg. But he stated that he does not know the future price of BTC, which is critical here. So diversifying, which decreases variance, is clearly the right strategy for him. |
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So when the price goes back up, they get them to buy back in because things are looking good for Bitcoin again? Genius.  Nope, because that would not be standard investment advice. It would break the portfolio diversification rule. Do you remember your granny telling you "Don't put all of your eggs in the same basket"? That stands whether your investments have gone up, down or sideways. |
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I am surprised that not a single person here has given the standard advice of a financial advisor.
For the avoidance of doubt, the standard advice is to diversify your portfolio. That advice stands irrespective of whatever may have happened in the past to your investments. Just because they have gone down, does not mean you should not diversify.
Therefore the standard advice would be to sell a large proportion of your Bitcoin and to invest in other asset classes, in order to have a diversified portfolio.
That advice does not rely on a prediction of what the Bitcoin price will be in the future. It relies simply on the fact that YOU do not know what the Bitcoin price will be in the future (neither do I).
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Yeah but now that manipulation is very difficult for not saying impossible, bitcoin doesnt depend on one exchange now and the volume is big enough to not be manipulated to easy by 1 or 2 people.
What, about 10,000 BTC per day on a major exchange? That's about US$ 5,000,000 of trades per day. So a small hedge fund with, say US$ 25 million to play with could utterly dominate the BTC market for a week or more? Meanwhile, the volume of trading in Apple shares alone, yesterday, was US$ 2.8 billion. http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/dailymarketstatistics.aspxHo ho. |
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I haven't looked at Bitcoin for months, until just now.
Damn, it's hardly changed at all in the last six months. Some variation, but no overall trend up or down.
Also striking is that volumes haven't increased either. It must just be a sea of people holding BTC, with no dividends, in the hope of a new price bubble, so they can sell up and return to fiat.
But there is no news. No large scale increase in use, or major new investor, or price variability or anything.
I can understand that you must all be very bored!
My forecast, for what it's worth, is that the stability will remain as everyone just holds, until one day something better is invented, then BTC will collapse, quietly, and without any fanfare.
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One of the best lessons that I've learned trading Bitcoin is never go full fiat. You can go 50%, 65%, 80%, but just don't go full fiat. The reason is simple: considering that 99% of the people here (and especially the stupid trolls) are actually medium/long term bulls that know bitcoin is currently undervalued, the pain of completely missing out on a rally is by far worse than seeing your "USD net worth" significantly decrease. I sure hope you've invested only what you can afford to lose.
I'll give you my example: I've bought all in, in december at average price of 585, and then proceeded to sell everything at 670. Even though the price was going up I knew (100% sure even though everyone was posting trains, rockets, boats, astronauts and what not) that the correction couldn't be over so soon. So I waited, and waited… and waited, and waited. Until one day I just couldn't watch bitcoin go up anymore with me being all out. So I bought, and luckily, knowing it would go down, I did so only with a fraction of my funds. It's easy to see that I bought at 985, literally moments before it completely reversed. Moments, not even minutes, fully aware of what was going on. But once I did buy, I felt relieved and after that I managed to continue trading considerably more efficiently, lowering my buy-in average considerably below my initial one.
TL DR: the current prices are just too good not to make a long-term investment, be it even 10% of your funds. Don't trade with everything, you might win, but it could drive you crazy as well. Hedge. Respect the stop loss.
You are strange person. You bought at 985, knowing it would go down? You have since been investing in a steadily declining market, apparently with relentless glee? Do you actually like losing money? |
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If you believe that there is a 20% chance or more of Bitcoin being worth $10,000 within three years time, then I recommend that you sell everything you own, including your house, and put all of the money into Bitcoin, right now.
The current price is about $500, so $10,000 represents a 20 fold increase. If you think you have a one in five (20%) chance of achieving that (and let's say the only other outcome is Bitcoin = zero), then your expected profit is at least five-fold, over three years. That is an annualised (probability weighted) performance of 82%.
Losing all of your assets would be bad, but you can always rebuild. But missing out on an annualised, prob weighted performance of over 82% is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity.
This is not time to think about 'what you can afford to lose'. You can afford to lose everything, you can always beg on the street. But you cannot afford to miss this.
Personally, I do not believe that the chance is 20%. I think the chance is only about 0.1%. Bitcoin of $10,000 creates too much incentive for someone to come up with an alternative, superior, cryptocurrency that is better able to assist international transactions.
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This might be the right time to buys some bitcoins
On the other hand the way prices are drowning this might even go down
No one knows whats coming tomorrow
Now is clearly a much better time to buy than when the price was $1,200 Holding is not a profitable strategy. Selling at 1,200, then buying at 450...now there's a good outcome. ..you end up with nearly three times as many bitcoins! |
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Holding always work; you buy and you hold : it's easy and you will probably have the most profit
EDIT 460$!
How can you say that after four months of declines that have reduced the price of a BTC from $1,200 to about $450? |
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I've been watching the live trades on Bitstamp for about ten minutes, about ten minutes ago. There are some interesting patterns.
Someone is managing to shift an awful lot of coins at $573. Every time the stock of coins available at 573 got low, another 30 would be added, and occasionally 50. This is repeatedly happening, soaking up all of the demand, selling a large position without being too obvious about it.
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Hello
Perhaps the reason for the current general price stability, with a gradual decline in prices over time, is that scammers are trying to sell 700,000 BTC gradually, without damaging the market too much. This would explain the huge bulk of Ask orders between 600-700.
The result, presumably, is that the USD price will gradually decline, but not markedly so, over the next few months until all of this is cleared.
Then the true strength of demand for BTC will be revealed again, and prices will rocket, perhaps in May or June?
But before then, I will be waiting a bit for further price declines. The 700,000 BTC cannot have possibly cleared yet, so further falls are likely. Why not wait for a lower price?
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