They'll be a huge move upwards... but I think we have to clear the underbrush of leverage further, first. Remember, crashes in most markets with leverage typically stop at 55%. Maybe we'll stop sooner, but with $20mil in longs on Finex... don't bank on it. Wait until a bottom confirms and buy. This is pretty easy stuff. And yes, we'll lever all the way back up.
55% of 1163 is $640. We're already way over 55%. 55 % of 640.  Legit. this on is for the bears, imagine a long squeeze down to 350ish back up to 540, extreme resistance cannot be over come @540, up is no longer an option!!! market immediately plunges 90%. you got a hardon now dont you Slow down please. I see myself as bull. Not this typical form of bull, where price must go up now, instantly without delay. But as a bull. I'm invested, I'm not selling, I've absolutely no panic. 55% of 640 is legit. Not a must be, but legit. Read again please. |
|
|
|
They'll be a huge move upwards... but I think we have to clear the underbrush of leverage further, first. Remember, crashes in most markets with leverage typically stop at 55%. Maybe we'll stop sooner, but with $20mil in longs on Finex... don't bank on it. Wait until a bottom confirms and buy. This is pretty easy stuff. And yes, we'll lever all the way back up.
55% of 1163 is $640. We're already way over 55%. 55 % of 640. Legit. |
|
|
|
I think my newbie status does not give me permission to vote. Both are unlikely. Both are not impossible.
I have to add that the second scenario was exaggerated, I didn't see give allot of attention to the time stamp at the bottom of the chart and I didn't follow the MACD or AO or MFI in both scenarios, I just went with how did it look in my imagination. so 2nd chart should be: cycle 3-4 months and the bottom would be $200-300 That's how I see it. Even it could go down into the ~300. Of course, bearisher (and bullisher) scenarios are possible, but in my eyes lesser probable. I see it more as a rough orientation, not a prediction. Edit: oh, I see your first chart is similar ;-)  Well, I will deepen my impression of the current market situation here since this Wall Observer Thread cracks me up. In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by older, both (5x) proven and mature trendlines. The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards, now building up his own dynamic. I think the bigger money(institutional buyers etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up. All the talk of manipulation conspiracies...to me it does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever. The posted scenario is my favorite. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market could go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years. I don't think so, but who knows. |
|
|
|
|
I think I should go out here. It's really turning heavy pathetic.
Ciao :-)
|
|
|
|
|
I think my newbie status does not give me permission to vote. Both are unlikely. Both are not impossible.
|
|
|
|
2-Or will it follow the technicals and go even lower but recover in a long and slow period ?
I will not rule out your very bearish chart, but it does not look very technical. There are very strong support levels/trendlines to break, even a lot more stronger than the 440,00 support, so this is very a premature scenario. It's the contrarian extreme to delusional bull scenarios Edit: Post deleted. |
|
|
|
|
~10% to first mayor support zone.
|
|
|
|
Even deliberate selling to move prices down requires coins. You are putting way too much faith in the integrity of the exchanges and third part wallet services. There is nothing that stops Bitstamp (deliberately or via subversion) from giving sellers infinite paper btc to trade with. They can get away with it as long as most people don't try to withdraw their coins. If they suddenly started making it hard for people to get their bitcoins back, that would be a possible indicator of this. There is also nothing that stops Coinbase from loaning out customer btc deposits to short sellers. We'd never know if they had done so. I really don't understand this... I know you as a reasonable, knowledgeable poster. And, yes, what you describe is a possibility, but so is the claim that the entire 2013 rally was driven by Willy (which I don't believe either, for the record). So why is it so hard to entertain the possibility that we're seeing the breach of the damn as a result of built-up selling pressure? We had a good rally to $680, from there on things started looking difficult, selling pressure was extremely subdued (for a number of reasons, but imo, mainly because the "hodl" mantra actually took hold - no pun intended), but without further fiat inflow and subsequent positive price action, it is only a matter of time before the sell-offs kick in. Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now? i can't believe people read all the good news and sell. people look at the price and sell... this move is purely manipulative. I think the initial kick, were caused by inpatient people which saw a new bubble forming, what has not happened, so they sold. Now the initial downward kick has become a negative dynamic building up a strong downtrend. |
|
|
|
Even deliberate selling to move prices down requires coins. You are putting way too much faith in the integrity of the exchanges and third part wallet services. There is nothing that stops Bitstamp (deliberately or via subversion) from giving sellers infinite paper btc to trade with. They can get away with it as long as most people don't try to withdraw their coins. If they suddenly started making it hard for people to get their bitcoins back, that would be a possible indicator of this. There is also nothing that stops Coinbase from loaning out customer btc deposits to short sellers. We'd never know if they had done so. I really don't understand this... I know you as a reasonable, knowledgeable poster. And, yes, what you describe is a possibility, but so is the claim that the entire 2013 rally was driven by Willy (which I don't believe either, for the record). So why is it so hard to entertain the possibility that we're seeing the breach of the damn as a result of built-up selling pressure? We had a good rally to $680, from there on things started looking difficult, selling pressure was extremely subdued (for a number of reasons, but imo, mainly because the "hodl" mantra actually took hold - no pun intended), but without further fiat inflow and subsequent positive price action, it is only a matter of time before the sell-offs kick in. Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now? Agreed. Keep things simple. It's nothing more than normal market development. |
|
|
|
There are going to be a lot of people really mad with fallen in 8 months.
That's the target |
|
|
|
He estimates 6 to 18 months before a manic top.
Oh, Monkey is even more careful than my Maya doomster. He says 6 - 12 and he's a real merchant of doom.  |
|
|
|
Who the fuck you think your fucking with? If you only knew who I am  Buffet? |
|
|
|
This guy have such a talent that reminds me of the economists on this board.
Ha, ha! Good one. But don't believe that there are a lot better economists outside. If I look there, it's more aristocracy than quality. So you should extend your comparison ;-) |
|
|
|
|
A few people are very serious, nervous and sensitive. If market were bullish, nobody would care about fallling.
|
|
|
|
no china bans this time.
No, no china bans. I understood it as a joke. |
|
|
|
china going under, again.
brace yourself.
China bans Bitcoin! Just again? :-) Downward momentum on these China Bans is lowering on each repeatition, so in a few month we could could reach a reversal where momentum turns upside on China Bans ;-) |
|
|
|
Let's see if I can become a guru ;-) Easily done. Create a bunch of sock puppet accounts. Have each one make 10 random predictions. Throw away the ones whose random predictions are wrong, and keep the ones whose random predictions are right. At the end you'll have a group of suckers hanging on the every word of the sockpuppet that accidentally got lucky several times in a row. Guru status achieved. I don't like cheating ;-) Therefore quite likely I'll never become a guru. |
|
|
|
Chinaman bull trap?
I call ~3400 tomorrow. After this sidewards (consolidation). Let's see if I can become a guru ;-) |
|
|
|
I question whether it would be o.k....
What does this ok mean exactly? Maybe you do NOT realize that if you are NOT citing the whole quote, then you are citing the quote out of context. Additionally, from your question and from your fragmented, out of context quote, it appears that you are trolling rather than attempting to engage in substantive discussion of anything meaningful. If I misunderstood you, then let me know, and we can start over.. Yes, you misunderstood me. Don't be so negative thinking, a troll trauma is explicable but not healthy for discussions ;-) I did not understand the meaning of your statement, so I would be very pleased if you could deepen it. I am just of the thinking that it could be difficult for BTC in the long term to recover from extended periods of downward price manipulation - b/c such sustained downward manipulation could cause too much exodus from the bitcoin space or even the marginalizing of bitcoin technology b/c of exiting and marginalizing of necessary bitcoin developments that are inspired by profit potential and potential for NOT taking seriously bitcoin... or even the investment into competitors that end up being worse than bitcoin. I could be wrong; however, b/c it is possible that even bitcoin could recover from such extensive downward price manipulation so long as behind the scenes developments are still taking place. NONETHELESS, I am continuing to think that too low and too long manipulation of a price could be problematic for bitcoin. Also, by the way, I am NOT the only person to have made such a claim, so it is NOT like I am being innovative in my concern about prolong and extend downward BTC price manipulation. I don't think it's manipulation, to me it looks like normal market development, even I don't think that a fall in price to the area of 300 or high 200 would effect the future of Bitcoin in a dangerous manner. It is what it is: a very young and volatile market. Of course there is a very blurry border where trust is broken so hard, that it would be become a threat to the whole system. But I would point this trust-at-all-destroying levels a lot lower (same like you - this no objective statement - only a personal estimate) I'm too tired now for a deeper argumentation (if there is any, as it's very speculative) - so thank you for deepening and sharing your thoughts. |
|
|
|
|
Why you wonder? A lot of volume moves the market, effecting strong movements and contrarian movements. The first volume-kick is the of start volatility.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
