Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

After Hiddleston before, now Aiden Turner is the first favorite. But, who will really be the next James Bond?

Few weeks, many bookmakers have suspended bets on the next James Bond after plenty of bets were placed on Tom Hiddleston. "I don't think that announcement is coming," said Hiddleston few days ago and once again made the next James Bond market rather popular.

At the same time, rumors that Aiden Turner will be the next James Bond emerged from plenty of different sources. Still, Sam Mendes, the man behind Skyfall and Spectre, has done his best to quash rumors that the race to be the next 007 is done and dusted: "It's not a democracy. It's not The X Factor, it's not the EU referendum, it's not a public vote."

Fairlay market for the Next James Bond:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-james-bond-1/.

But, could it be Aiden Turner? He would be the surprise choice but he has numerous positives. If the producers want sexy and suave, they could do little wrong in choosing him. And he's young enough to play Bond in a half-dozen or more films over the next decade and a half.

Still, neither Tom Hiddleston or Tom Hardy are much older, while older Damian Lewis who was frontrunner last year is still among the favorites for the role. It is same with Jamie Bell and Idris Elba who has long been seen as a Bond-in-waiting. But, who (or will any) of them be the next James Bond, and are you good enough to predict the right one?

All is set for Trump vs. Clinton, but what will be voter turnout? Small one or bigger than ever?

After few months, we are finally set for Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump election. Ted Cruz fought rather long and especially Bernie Sanders fought to the end, but after all we will get one of the most interesting election in the last few decades. But, will they be interesting to voters as well, or only to media?

Voter turnout in 2012 was 129 millions, two millions less than turnout of 131 in 2008, but what will 2016 bring? Some think that both Trump and Hillary are disliked so turnout should be lower than it was in 2012. But, at the same time, other have opinion that people will vote against one of them so turnout should be higher than in 2012.

What will be voter turnout in the US presidential elections?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-voter-turnout-in-the-us-presidential-elections-2/.

Anyway, because of all these factors you now have an open market with six different range of numbers on offer, from under 125 millions, to over 145. And we also have one unenthusiastic candidate Hillary Clinton, and on the other side enthusiastic candidate Donald Trump. So, who will influence more, and what is your opinion on this market?

Will Hillary Clinton win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?

Earlier today we discussed about Donald Trump's chances to win the US presidency by a landslide, and gave reasons why some of the people think that he indeed could do that, but chances for that are still rather small. Still, if you think that Trump could do that you have an open market at Fairlay, so use the great odds given on that option:

Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.

Still, if you think that Trump has no chances, then maybe you think that Hillary could become president with a landslide victory which is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents.

At Fairlay market this means winning at least 370 electoral votes, so can Hillary achieve that? Many of her supporters believe that Trump stands no chances in November, and recent polls favor Hillary as well, though not as much as she was favoured before. Still, if Sanders stands behind her, she could easily defeat Trump by a landslide.

Will the Democratic nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-democratic-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.

Because of the insulting and divisive style of the Trump campaign, many think that the Democratic electoral advantage will be even greater than in previous presidential elections. The prospect of a Trump presidency will galvanize Democratic voters to come out in huge numbers, so Hillary could win more electoral votes than Obama did in 2012.

So, what is your opinion on this? Can Hillary win in a landslide, or do you give Trump bigger chances to achieve this?

Will Donald Trump win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?

A landslide victory is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents. And, against all odds, it is time to discuss can Doland Trump, as a Republican nominee, win the US presidency by a landslide.

Okay, maybe it is too soon to talk about this as Trump is still behind Hillary in polls for the next President, though he needs to take ’only’ 270 electoral votes to win the 2016 presidential election. In order to win it by a landslide he should take 370 electoral votes. It really looks impossible, but all the things Trump did this year looked impossible as well.

Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.

Become of this ’Trump factor’, there is more and more people who think that he can make another surprise, and some like cartoonist Scott Adams tried to explain what candidate Trump is doing to win campaign hearts and minds. Here are the factors that are part of why Adams believes Donald Trump will win the presidency (in a landslide):

1. Trump knows people are basically irrational.
2. Knowing that people are irrational, Trump aims to appeal on an emotional level.
3. By running on emotion, facts don’t matter.
4. If facts don’t matter, you can’t really be “wrong.”
5. With fewer facts in play, it’s easier to bend reality.
6. To bend reality, Trump is a master of identity politics — and identity is the strongest persuader.

So, do you agree with Adams that Trump can use this to win in a landslide? Then use great odds that you have at Fairlay.

Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July? Could California primary answer that question?

After four months we have come to the final day of the primaries (not counting the June 14 District of Columbia primary) that could answer another important question: Will Bernie Sanders finally drop out of the race? And this could be decided by the results of the California Primary that is one of the most popular Fairlay primary markets:

Who will win the California Democratic primary?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.

It is almost sure that even before the first vote is counted in California on Tuesday, the Hillary Clinton campaign and the TV networks will announce that she has clinched the nomination. Still, if he wins California, Bernie Sanders would be more inclined to follow through on his pledge to contest the nomination at the convention. Messy one, indeed.

So, after Tuesday results come in Sanders will have two options: whether to directly acknowledge Hillary’s nomination and drop out of the race or intensify his fight to the July convention in Philadelphia. And, no one knows what will happen while there are plenty different opinions: he should drop, he should stay, he should fight for specific platforms.

Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/.

Anyway, you surely have your opinion on what should Sanders do, and will he do it. And now you have also have an open market at Fairlay to predict will he drop out from the race before July. And hurry up to predict, because odds could change a lot after California primaries, or maybe Sanders could even drop out tomorrow and thus close the market.

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 9?

Ten days ago it looked like Donald Trump could increase his lead ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, but that didn’t happen.

In fact, after having 0.2% lead from May 21 to May 25, Donald Trump lost it after that and Hillary started to gain the lead back. First with 1.0% lead, and then with the 1.5% lead in the last couple of days.

So, what will happen in the following seven days, till June 9? Many think that Hillary will continue to improve her lead in polling, so you have an option that she will even go over 3.0% lead.

Still, changes are easily made, so those of you who believe polls will go back to Trump’s side have great odds at Fairlay market. Anyway, you have five options so try to predict the right one at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-9/.

Will either Democrats or Republicans control both Congress and the White House after the elections?

We are five months and six days away from the US Elections, and it is time to once again ask a question about the chances that one party takes complete control after them with the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House. So, what are the chances for this to happen?

At the moment, it looks like this could happen to Republicans before it happens to Democrats. They are already in control of Congress, though that could change as they are they’re defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats up in 2016. And nowadays Donald Trump has much bigger chances for the win, then he had few months ago.

Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.

Still, as Republicans are defending 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016, Democrats are pleased with the fact that seven of those are in states that voted for Obama. Not once but twice. So, many think that Senate maps looks better and better for Democrats, and Hillary should win as well. But, will she indeed, or will Trump stop her?

Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.

Anyway, there is plenty of options open but if you think any of the parties can form the undivided government, you have great odds on that happening at both Fairlay markets. So, what is your opinion on this?

Who will rule Westeros? Daenerys? Jon Snow? Bran Stark?

Game of Thrones is getting more interesting from week to week, and last night we had the sixth episode of the sixth season. And though this one didn’t Hold the Door, it was another interesting one.

Once again Daenerys showed how much she wants to rule the seven kingdoms, so it is probably the right time to ask a big question: Who will rule Westeros? We are out of books, series is going on its own and the end is near.

So, who will rule it? Will Daenerys use her dragons, or Bran Stark his powers, or Jon Snow his… well, how much lives those he exactly has? Those free are given biggest chances at the Fairlay market that you can find at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-rule-westeros/.

But, Arya Stark is getting more and more dangerous, and he is again on her own, and Sansa is getting smarter as well. And, what is with Tryrion? He drinks, and he knows things. Can he use that to get to the Iron Throne?

What about all the other Lannisters, Tyrells, Greyjoys, and people like Petyr Baelish? Anyway, you surely have your opinion so share it here, and at the same some use the great odds by predicting (hopefully right) the ruler of Westeros.

Will be a third party candidate in any of the presidential general election debates?

With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on two sides, this years’ presidential general election debates are going to be all but boring. And the nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) already announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election.

Those three debates will be held in September and October on three different locations, but the most interesting question before the debates start is will there be a third party candidate, one that could favor either Hillary or Trump?

Some think that will not happen as CPD is controlled in a way that keep third parties out, while most agree that Trump will be negative towards the third candidate, and probably say that it is only there to stop him from winning.

But, with this in mind, could the addition of the third party candidate be pushed on by some of the parties in its own interest? Could even Trump favor someone who is likely to take votes away from Hillary, or could be this other way around? As in 1992, when Clinton won with 42% of the popular vote because Perot took votes away from Bush.

At the moment, the only question in can presumed Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson get 15% in an average of five national polls, though he’s been recently polling at 10%. Still, CPD could lower the standards, or even other independent candidate could get the attention. Anyway, both options are opened and now you have an open market at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-be-a-third-party-in-any-of-the-presidential-debates/.

Will Donald Trump once again lead Hillary Clinton in polling, at the start of June?

Few days ago, for the first time in this long election campaign, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. So, Clinton's double-digit lead, which she has held over the past several months, has vanished like it was never there. And it is time to ask how this happened, and what follows next?

Of course, it is not hard to see what happened. Recently, Republicans have rallied around Trump, and according to a Washington Post survey, 85% of Republicans plan to vote for their man. On the other side, Hillary still has a Bernie Sanders problem, and a recent Economist poll shows that among Sanders supporters, 55% would vote for Clinton.

And as the Sanders problem isn't going away, it's still early to predict what will happen in the long run. But, what about the short one? Who will lead polls in seven days, and by which margin? RealClearPolitics shows that yesterday Clinton had +1.0, but before that Trump had a +0.2. So, make your prediction for the poll margins on June 2:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-2/.

Markets are mostly divided about who will have lead in the following polls, and in the following few weeks they will mostly go both side from day to day, but this gives you great odds if you guess the right margin. So, do you think that Sanders will harm Hillary even more in the following days, or could she gain back her big lead in the election polls?