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I wrote an answer here on January 9th, but I was wrong. Now the situation is completely different. It is not a correction, it is a crash and maybe trend reversal. It still does not mean that bitcoin is going to die or stay below the previous ATH forever. I believe there will be another pump and another ATH, but probably not this year. Probably it is going to be a bear market for months.
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No buying pressure and sideways means (from my experience), we will get another drop soon. I remember those times after the MtGox crash. No one had any interest in buying bitcoins anymore. Took a veeery long time to recover.
MtGox crash was different, because it was essentially the only major exchange then, so the depth of the crash and timing may be different, but I agree that a new ATH in 2018 in now very unlikely. It may take a year or two. |
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Probably in 2019. I am cautiously optimistic in long term, but I think things are going to be bleak and maybe even boring for a next few months.
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I will not do anything. The market seems to be heavily manipulated and is completely impossible to predict. At first glance it may seem that bitcoin is slowly dying, but it is not. Same things were told about Bitcoin Cash when it fall from $900 to $300 and about Ethereum when it went from $400 to $200 - look where they are now. I am sure there will be another pump... and another dump.
True. This is how extremely volatile the crypto market is and it has always been this way. It is best to let the weak hands go and the strong hands will most likely become rich in the future. I am not a big fan of Bitcoin Cash, but I never believed the rumors that it would simply disappear just like that since it is related to Bitcoin and it does have strong support. Bitcoin Cash is going nowhere. On the other hand, Ethereum being overtaken by Ripple recently surprised me, but it obviously bounced back in a big way as expected. Best to not predict too much in such a volatile crypto market. I am also not a fan of Bitcoin Cash, and I learned one thing - in the world of crypto it is better not to be a fan of anything. Ripple also surprised me a lot, but soon the pump became obvious. |
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I will not do anything. The market seems to be heavily manipulated and is completely impossible to predict. At first glance it may seem that bitcoin is slowly dying, but it is not. Same things were told about Bitcoin Cash when it fall from $900 to $300 and about Ethereum when it went from $400 to $200 - look where they are now. I am sure there will be another pump... and another dump.
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No, it is not. Although I think it may be possible for the price of bitcoin to stay relatively stable without reaching a new ATH in 2018, it will be far from death. It is long dead as a form of payment, but Lightning Network can change that.
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A solution of the scalability problem. The fees were high enough half a year ago, in December they became insane. Now the situation is slowly improving, but any new surge of interest will congest the network again. But I have a feeling that such solution is not going to appear soon. Developers and miners have no incentive to solve the problem, so we will see the rise of many altcoins in 2018.
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While I remain optimistic for long term, I think two consecutive years of 10x growth (that means 100x in 2 years) are extremely unlikely. And the start is certainly not positive. I can only hope that bitcoin remains above $10k and returns to ATH of $20k during 2018. Now even $30k seems to be very difficult to achieve. A solution of scaling problem in the nearest future can change a lot, but in reality it may take a lot of time.
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If a decentralized system of money is implemented, lending capacity would be vastly reduced and slow the growth of the economy.
There will be no 'decentralized system'. Bitcoin is no more 'decentralized' than gold and silver (actually much less, because there are just a few mining enterprises and exchanges). Banks adopted paper money before, soon they will adopt crypto. Nothing will change. |
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If developers or community managers are so inactive in this project, then I think this project will be dead soon. Tangerine's team, can you do something about this? We need more news more updates and even chatting with us in a telegram group is fine.
It seems to be dead already. This 'exchange' launched in late December is essentially a mockup. There are no trades, order books are empty, no ways to deposit or withdraw fiat. I think nobody is going to use it, even if it works. Too bad about this. I once thought that mandarin or tangerine is a fine project that will lead to a change but I was wrong. However, I am still believing and expecting something from the team soon. I also liked the idea and I think it would have worked well, but it turned out to be an elaborate scam. |
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Estimated return in clams (NO COMPOUNDING) :: ... 41.0331677% return/year ... 3.3725891% return/month ... 0.1124196% return/day ... 0.0046842% return/hour ... 0.0000781% return/minute ... 0.0000013% return/second
I know nothing about probabilities but I do know that with small amount of coins staking outside of just-dice or other pool might be a bit unconvenient/difficult.
41% is not bad. If there are staking pools for Clams, it probably makes sense to send my coins there. Which one would you recommend? Definetly just-dice.com , it's also gambling site so if you choose to leverage the investment youll feel the gambling profits aswell. I second this. You dont necessarily have to gamble, it's possible yo just leave your coins there for staking. It gives extensive stats too, like you can know how much profit you got at the moment. Registered, sent some Clams there (fortunately, complete sync is not required for sending) and invested them. Works flawlessly, profits already covered the transaction fee  |
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If developers or community managers are so inactive in this project, then I think this project will be dead soon. Tangerine's team, can you do something about this? We need more news more updates and even chatting with us in a telegram group is fine.
It seems to be dead already. This 'exchange' launched in late December is essentially a mockup. There are no trades, order books are empty, no ways to deposit or withdraw fiat. I think nobody is going to use it, even if it works. |
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OK, I used the mint function and still have not received any POSTokens: https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6efefeeaf912b17cf76448c49bf0efd3493e26d78f8c2bfebfba7126861f20d8 I am starting to get frustrated. I have minted twice and have yet to receive any new POSTokens. The only POSTokens I have are from airdrops and from buying them on EtherDelta. Can someone offer some guidance? I am pretty tech savvy so I can only imagine the frustration average people would feel. It worked before. After the last airdrop, AFAIR, I waited for three days and tried to mint just to check it. It worked instantly. Now neither of two methods work and the fees are enormous. I really do not like what I see now. |
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I've tried to mint by sending 1 POS token to my own address and it did not work (TX ID 0x63e6cedb3f30452ea55a4a6538f2a59c84df1d708e83fa51b2a208baa02d18c9), although the transaction cost me a HUGE fee. Minting calculator ( https://calculator.postoken.org/) still shows the same amount. Judging by the previous message (where the other method was used), minting is not possible anymore. |
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What is the expected probability/percentage of staking?
Just-Dice.com is staking 1083323 CLAMs and staked 1236 times yesterday. That's one stake per day per 876 CLAMs, or 0.114% per day. Thanks, I'll definitely give it a try. |
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Definetly just-dice.com , it's also gambling site so if you choose to leverage the investment youll feel the gambling profits aswell.
Thanks, I'll try it. |
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Estimated return in clams (NO COMPOUNDING) :: ... 41.0331677% return/year ... 3.3725891% return/month ... 0.1124196% return/day ... 0.0046842% return/hour ... 0.0000781% return/minute ... 0.0000013% return/second
I know nothing about probabilities but I do know that with small amount of coins staking outside of just-dice or other pool might be a bit unconvenient/difficult.
41% is not bad. If there are staking pools for Clams, it probably makes sense to send my coins there. Which one would you recommend? |
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Well, version 3.1.2 appeared on the web site, with 'packages' directory inside. It runs, asks for password, shows wallet conversion dialog, then crashes with error:
File "/home/az/Programs/Electron Cash-3.1.2/lib/address.py", line 80, in hash_to_hex_str
return bytes(reversed(x)).hex()
AttributeError: 'bytes' object has no attribute 'hex'
Nice try, but still unusable...
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Thanks. I've downloaded the bootstrap file, but importing is incredibly slow. I hope it can be interrupted and then restarted for the position where it stopped, otherwise I would probably not be able to complete the process at all.
Try turning off your Internet connection while it's importing. Does it keep importing? If not, you're not using the bootstrap file. It shouldn't be that slow. If you stop and restart the client it will continue where it left off. It says "Importing blocks..." and continues from where it stopped, but it is incredibly slow. Probably going to take several days at least. I'm running it in a virtual machine (as some other altcoins), but it is still too slow. What is the expected probability/percentage of staking? |
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Terrible. One package, python-pyaes is not present in Debian Stable at all, it is in Testing only. The required version of python-certifi is also available in Testing only. Hence, it is completely unusable. In contrib/make_packages I see it will install the following packages: if [ `uname` == "Darwin" ]; then
# try to name pip the Brew way..
PIP=`which pip3`
if [ -z "${PIP}" ]; then
# nope, maybe MacPorts instead.. hopefully it's pip3
PIP=pip
fi
$PIP install -r $contrib/requirements_osx.txt -t $contrib/packages
else
pip3 install -r $contrib/requirements.txt -t $contrib/packages
fi Hence by the looks of it it should pip3 install everything in requirements.txt. Can you try running ./make_packages or also try python3 setup.py install and check if this does it for you as well. There is no 'contrib' folder in the downloaded ElectronCash-3.1.1.tar.gz archive. 'python3 setup.py install --prefix ~' (I do not want to run it as root) fails with: TEST FAILED: /home/az/lib/python3.4/site-packages/ does NOT support .pth files
error: bad install directory or PYTHONPATHI've tried to copy the 'packages' folder from Electrum 3.0.5 to Electron Cash 3.1.1. It started, asked for password, showed a window that it needs to convert the wallet to a new format and then crashed. Fortunately, I have backups. It is absolutely unacceptable for a financial application, especially for a fork of application which is working perfectly! It is broken beyond all repair and I suppose I only have an option to moving to another wallet. |
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