Pace yourself in any attempt to recover or even if you carry on betting some.  Unrealistic aims is the worst idea in avoiding repeats, quite often the best advice is to reduce rather then completely attempt to stop.   If you can acclimatize yourself towards less of what is a problem in your life whatever it might be, it can give you a better foothold to better address and safely move away rather suddenly stop.  Some people swear they can just walk from an addiction whatever sort it might be, most people will take a few attempts to adjust and flush out all the behavior they have built up that is reinforcing what feels and has become negative for them.  Its process of change usually, thats the best advice I've seen stated that appears most likely to work.

I know a few people who switched back to a basic phone to avoid distractions and focus on the task/job what they need to do.

Quite a deep pullback today, I thought we might be heading for the 21k area  if it continued.  Its caught onto the 2 day average and is recovering back above levels previously lost.  I could be wrong in attributing too much importance to this level but 24.3k is a repeating Fibonacci level that could help us climb higher if held as support.  The push down below this in its attempt did not last more then half a day or so, we're back above.  Building here could be really positive for a higher target rather then this idea of a full reversion to 19k or similar levels.
  The last hourly candle was a good one, a pin shape; all these judgements dont have to matter an hour of trading isnt alone a signal but its developing well and I hope daily and weekly bars confirm us properly towards more gains.

Soft default not hard default.   Soft default is when you pay taxes for a national pension for 40 years then just before you retire they raise the age at which you can retire by 1 or 2 years, this is soft default.  They will not return the value promised but it wont be a hard default.   Reason we can so sure of the soft default is that it is just alot easier to allow to happen then the alternative which as mentioned above could lead to war and extreme consequences for government failure.
   The stated aim of the FED is 2% inflation, we may see them overshoot that to average 10% at times but the main reason is the debt load is reduced by that inflation and neither dollar or government will exactly default or fail to pay however great value will lost to private citizens and bond holders.

Complexity well ahead of Mibr on Ancient, however vital detail is that Mibr hold the CT side and as mentioned by some top players the map has more then a little bias towards CT side.   Col could do little but squirm and get a few impressive but futile kills while consistently losing rounds to Mibr vice like hold on the sites, recapping any plant made.    Quite tragic but I learn my lesson this map is a wild card, its going in the same bin as old Nuke and other odd ends just have to remember it for the future                                

Entirely possible just from natural events such as a volcano or anything that can spread around the globe.  Just a dust cloud from a volcano can interfere with weather across the world and the ability to produce in multiple countries.  This will restrict growth and place the emphasis on means of payment for commodities in demand.  
  Add in the risk of politics, war and human error and recession is entirely possible.  The bias is towards world growth because we have population growth and to feed those people more is required every day in productive capacity and efficiency while doing so.
  If we fail to do better people will grow poorer no doubt about it, some think this is inevitable but even the cynic in me would point at the vast amounts we throw away and waste; its completely obvious all economies all people can do better then they are now hence growth.

41 tickets is lucky but did they enter similarly every week for a decade or somehow manage this just registering this year.  If its a long term user I dont mind their excessive luck, it was earned with time more then anything else.  If they just walked in the door then paint me green, Im jealous :p so unfair lol

The BTC price is struggling to pass 25k which is the confluence of 200 week and 52 week averages, theres a few reasons its a hard hill to climb.  If we do not surmount this obstacle then it could repeat the range observed previously despite doing so well recently, unfortunate.   For this month,  the best guess for end day price would be here or lower thats more probable then not I'd guess.   A pullback and retry is still bullish but would appear to require more time, see if it can resolve its hesitancy in short order or not.

Bullish right now, good reaction to Fib level and strong above 12hr average for some time now which makes it very strong action sustaining with only a quick pullback so far.


Negatives or negative action downwards to oppose price right now is the 50 week and 200 week moving average almost exactly in this area.  If BTC price action can build above 24.5k then 30k as a target is quite probable, we dont always get to say 25% gain is possible near term so thats bullish for sure.

A cynic would say we must pullback harder, to confirm the break of negative trend of 2022 but when or if is not definite imo.

What happens if Dollar ever falls to zero or the Ruble, oh that already did.  In fact every national currency has failed at some point sooner or later its just a promise of value.   There is hard default or soft default for the Ruble they allowed 10,000 old Rubles to convert to 1 new Ruble and did that really help anyone who believed their currency would not fail; only an illusion unfortunately.
    BTC is being used, so long as that is true it wont go substantially down when viewed over many years, its been gaining a long time now mostly because so many new dollars exist over just five years ago and so on.  Almost every country is like this because nobody wants to break ranks with Dollar global reserve system, if a system cant adjust it will fail.  BTC is only place you are promised a set issuance and security of that, its something which has value for that unique quality so zero is unlikely.
   Anything can happen of course but probably we will see a repeat of Dollar losses & everyone copies their stand, BTC continues to be of use globally to the people more then any other entity.   Yen is most likely to cause tremors globally, the people and nation are good but the currency has dire problems they just got a new chief.

80k would appear to be a silly price, pipe dream and fantasy of the deluded.   However if we continued to act as we have done for YTD in contrast its slightly less improbable.   8% gains sequentially even if interrupted by pullbacks so long as its a dip more then a crash, that could lead to far higher price targets then expected.  
  What we're trying to guess is the mood of the market on various time frames.  To guess today, this week this month even isnt that important.  We gain Feb and we lose it all again in March isnt leading to the spectacular, more a test of patience then belief in high numbers.   But if the sequence in conclusion can be assigned a trend that is lasting over multiple months, a sequence of higher lows perhaps then its a bigger idea and can support these bigger numbers.   We dont have any of that, we have very good gains year to date and it might repeat we can hope.
  

Wow this is one hell of a move in like just one day.  Its held the line, reacted massively upwards and has to be taken as very bullish for the rest of this month.   We have maintained at the top of the range for the price action since year start where as I had thought we'd have to pull back far more in either time or price to resolve sellers in the order books



The next bundle of volume would be at 30k area.   We do need to pass this range top and confirm past that, moving towards that target but seems quite possible we are able to find enough interest.

A point people might be missing which can apply to crypto also is that holding a commodity does not qualify as investment.   I can buy and keep a barrel of oil but Im not an investor, Im a commodity speculator or possibly I will just use this barrel of oil myself but there is also cost to holding a commodity.
   Imo BTC is much like a commodity which we know is in demand with good prospects but it doesnt accumulate value all by itself, the market itself must grow and usage by various parties big and small.   Gold is definitely a growth sector, its been in net purchase by central banks for a couple decades now.   The price still massively varies and may not profit people who can only hold it for a couple years.

I might get in trouble then because I always have some variance in the email I use depending on the device Im sat at and so on.   If I dont know the place I probably wont give a standard email, I'll give an email I dont read or need to read often because I dont want a regular account to be swamped.  I thought alot of people did this, if I use a site alot its very likely allocated towards my most common email address but only after I like it.

Biggest way to increase distribution is to increase innovation and invention possible then you educate the population enough to benefit all of society.    When people can improve business or society through their work and intellectual property it should mean there is a much greater chance of distribution of wealth from the traditional to the new technology creators.
  The 80/20 split is probably correct and in some places it could be far worse.  Economies especially based around commodity wealth and control of land dont tend to reward individual achievement.  Its thought that an advanced society will develop beyond purely owning rich ground but the means to work it best, mining or farming etc.

Ideally the FED will not want to pivot, it will want to hold not just now but this entire year and this action is the least they want to in order to ensure inflation is headed off.    Whether the FED hand is forced by wider reasons is another matter, ultimately I dont think the FED is in control of what plays out but near term they can keep rates 'high' and its not a big deal.
  Long term USA national debt is too expensive at a rate at 5% or above, it will be forced into emergency measures to repay and reduce large fiscal budgets.  I think there is trouble in that real feedback beyond intentions and planned policy.

BTC makes new low for Feb today but also is now challenging the 48hr moving average.   With the low in the region of 21k it could be we have a local bottom and challenge the momentum downwards till the end of month however this remains to be seen. 22.3k is about the cap for this move on initial buying alone, it has to build above and confirm 22.5k or higher not to fail like most bearish trend rallys do.
  Last Thurs was a bigger down day both price and volume and thats the measure to meet for beating the inertia accumulated downwards.  Outside of that we are moving in a range set since that down day, fighting action downwards but with no success upwards to date.  Presume we repeat until we actually doing something new, this isnt quite it yet.

My fingertips are all thumbs, its an unfortunate affliction but I think phones have a little bit further to go to be fully utilized for all their strengths.  A complete hands off phone via various means would be a force multiplier, not directly relevant to gambling but my opinion in general is that phones are limited by their narrow access, touch method.  Voice control is a thing but further improvement and AI is required I guess, we'll get there imo.
  Till then yes desktop and web access is quite vital especially when its gambling for money I cant be making a costly mistake because I was eating or something  :p

This year is bullish because we dont reach the negative conclusion many had feared while selling.   Alot of people who might have sold in the 20k prices may have watched BTC go into the teens and carried on waiting for it to go lower.   To prove the most negative outcomes incorrect is sometimes bullish in of itself.   
   Even if we end this year not more then 5k further in price then where we are now, holding your ground finding a foothold is a position of strength and growth to climb in future.  Hence I do label even sideways in effect a bullish kind of revision and consolidation, partly because I've seen it before and I try not to repeat mistakes and misapprehension.

Sri Lanka had food shortages due to a collapse in the economy and currency value.  They gave 1 day off to all government employees to grow their own food, this was often done in wars by nations unable to trade properly and with the obvious loss of working age men/women it was a requirement.
  The other factor is fertilizer usage, techniques and general technology advancement such as machines help make farms more productive.    Crypto wouldnt be part of that exactly but anything which improves the flow of currency and investment locally not just to western based economies biased; this is probably a good thing for the world and its productive capacity.

Looks good only thing now Ive noticed is the 200 day average is in slight decline.   Backtest completion would confirm with close of weekly bar I think it will be good to take a conclusion then.    A pullback is always quite normal so I hope we are so slight as to only pull back this much, it does appear we now line up quite nicely with prior peaks suggesting possible support for more then one reason.

2 days even 1 day a week could still be a problem gambling habit if you spend more then you should for your own security and those who depend on you.
    One guy I used to work with, really nice guy massive dude built like 6'5 Viking who handled all the largest parcels in the warehouse and would go hard drinking the second his pay check hit the bank.  He would spend his entire wages for that week in a day or so and then be stone cold broke for every other day, nothing left to travel to work or eat or smoke he'd run out of all cash and become a roaming monk in the district quite a character.   His parents who fed him made sure he gave them something so he didnt starve but that one day excess was a problem for him.  
   The main element there is drinking, he would gamble some while drunk but mostly I think it was living beyond any reasonable means way too much that was the problem.   Most sensible thing is split the cash up a bit, pay absolute essentials do the food shopping before the beer and gambling budgets as those are just play money; do that much and imo people dont or wont have much of a problem.