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2021  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consent and the price of bitcoins in China on: March 11, 2013, 01:41:32 AM
I am very sure that the high bitcoin price is created by artificial financial barriers.
2022  Economy / Speculation / Re: Two simple charts. on: March 11, 2013, 01:22:23 AM
In 1999, there was a company in Finland doing some specialist software. About 50 employees and made healthy profit. The owners wanted to take it public. Because of the IT boom, the IPO was oversubscribed 50 times, the minimum was 200 shares and many paid for more. In the allocation everyone was given 25 shares. The company received 50,000 new owners.

Now, the adult population in Finland is 4.2 million and we know that women do not invest. So 2.4% of the adult male population (18-108 years) participated. This is a bubble.

When we have 50000 users of bitcoin in Finland, and everyone has invested a mere € 5000, the total investment is € 250 million. At these prices, it takes about € 1 million of new investment to move the price up $1. So Finland alone could warrant the price going to around $300.

And it is good to remember that Bitcoin is not a 50-employee software company.

And that Finland is not the world.

I think most people's greatest fear is the governments/established organizations' retaliation.
2023  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 11, 2013, 12:39:18 AM
LTC looks great, but I probably would not get into a market that even I can manipulate. Smiley
2024  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Please dont let bitcoinstore fail, your action is needed just about now. on: March 10, 2013, 03:16:34 PM
It's not up to us to support someone else's ridiculously ambitious project. There is a word for that and it's not looked upon favorably on these forums...

Additionally, I personally don't support rampant consumerism, so no I will not be buying anything I don't absolutely need.

Bitcoin is a ridiculously ambitious project which is up to someone else to support, with nearly no economic gain at its initial stages of growth.
2025  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I used to have some respect for Chris Douane... on: March 10, 2013, 11:23:57 AM
What I can say is that Bitcoin's technical sophistication is already way beyond what some well-respected gurus in its related fields can wrap around their minds with, let alone the common folks out there, and don't rush to tell me that bitcoin is "complicated", if it's the only solution to a problem thus far unsolved, it's actually the simplest solution, and you may just be too lazy to learn about it.
2026  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 10, 2013, 09:54:27 AM
What do you guys think about the evacuation of that big wall from 48.20 to 49.98?

I wish it could be eaten, it's ridiculous to have someone putting out a mere 10,000 BTC messing with the market like that.
2027  Economy / Speculation / Re: Moderately wealthy individual going cold-bloodedly all in on: March 10, 2013, 09:18:00 AM
I did the same thing a year ago. Dont regret it for a second  Wink

How "all in" were you? Mind some disclosure?

Not going to get into numbers, but it was about 80% of my total assets.

I am not as "cold-blooded" as you are, only invested 20% of my savings, now whenever I trade it makes me super nervous coz when it's in BTCs it doesn't feel like much, when it's in fiats it feels like moving my whole bank account. Grin
2028  Economy / Speculation / Re: Moderately wealthy individual going cold-bloodedly all in on: March 10, 2013, 08:52:26 AM
I did the same thing a year ago. Dont regret it for a second  Wink

How "all in" were you? Mind some disclosure?
2029  Economy / Speculation / Re: Moderately wealthy individual going cold-bloodedly all in on: March 10, 2013, 07:25:32 AM
This is the first time I've heard the term "cold-bloodedly" used in a positive way.


I just wanted to make the distinction between doing something in a premeditated, calculating way, as opposed to arriving in the conclusion without the necessary time to think, and thorough analysis.

No, it's because in Finland, cold is like....cool.  Wink
2030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will make everyone super rich - Buy now,Buy Now! (repeat to fade!) on: March 10, 2013, 03:02:00 AM
People USING it to BUY things and accept is as their WAGE is FAITH in the EURO. Wow this place is just full of knuckle dragging retards.

 Grin Faith at gunpoint...

Except most of the people using fiat don't think of it like that.

I think there would be many Germans who would like to get back to the Mark...
2031  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: March 10, 2013, 02:20:03 AM
I think we should forget about stability for next year. rising so high will not lead price to stability.

Indeed, +/- 10 USD swing will become our routine, 2011-style massive plunge could happen on a weekly basis.

+/- 10 USD of a price in the triple digits, where it would only be a <10% change.

But 2011-style volatility will not become the norm. There would be too many losers in a market that inefficient. Losers leave, and trading volume decreases until it basically flatlines. That's what happens after penny stock pump and dumps.

In contrast, with bitcoin we are seeing the second growth cycle in an efficient market (as efficient as any market of its size). The fact that we have a second growth cycle suggests that the overall trend is sustainable, with more cycles to come.

There will be and have been too many losers, and that's exactly how free market and bitcoin make things fair not just for the early adopters. A uncountable number of weak hands have already fallen on the great trip of 32-2-45. Now that the institutional investors join the fun, from a bullish perspective things will get more obvious as they put huge pressure on bears to sell by inducing panic.
2032  Economy / Speculation / Re: Moderately wealthy individual going cold-bloodedly all in on: March 10, 2013, 02:02:05 AM
To be considered pump and dump one has to spread falsely positive information, now, there is no way I can find out if the OP tells the truth(I give him benefit of the doubt), but there is hardly any false "inside" information you can spread about bitcoin itself, everything is there for everyone to know.

I'm not sure what to make of this.


Okay, I fold. I was anyway thinking of increasing my BTC stash by about $50000. Then came the correction and I was salivating at the idea of being able to buy at $30-$35. I didn't sleep at night, just waiting and waiting and spreading FUD...

Then it started going back up from $45. If you look at the daily chart, there is no correction. Just going up and up. Of course there will be dips and some day there will be crash for sure. The dips, such as the one two nights ago, will take us back maybe 3 days' worth of gains. The crash will nullify the gains of maybe latest 1-2 months (like the one in 2011 did).

If you know what we all know, it makes pretty little sense to do anything except all in (leave enough in silver that you can live comfortably if BTC goes to 0, of course). I am planning to do just that in the coming weeks and I still hope for $30-$35. Today was the deciding factor - up until today I thought there is some coins in the bears' hand that they can sell. Today I realized that the number of bears increased just because more and more people that speculatively sold already, and USD is now burning in their hands. BTC is going up long term for sure. The bears will buy back or be forgotten.

Sorry fella bears that I put the buy orders there. My friend told that I will hurt the ability to buy, if you show it, but I don't know how to use bots Sad

Sorry also for the mini runup. I was panicking Sad


First my focus is in the later part about bitcoin itself, I don't know why you can't see it. Second on this subforum someone could just talk bullshit and tell plain lies and later get away with it like nothing has happened, no need to do repentance and self-disclosure like this guy did, we have plenty of these people around and I am sure you know them. Smiley
2033  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 10, 2013, 01:37:23 AM
Was the $47 wall just pulled or was it actually bought?

Bought, check the volume.
2034  Economy / Speculation / Re: what to do about 'dat $48.20 wall on: March 10, 2013, 01:31:03 AM
It'll melt away magically as we get closer.

Or get eaten away, what's 500 thousand dollars when you have seen several $5M days already?
2035  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: March 10, 2013, 01:29:59 AM
I think we should forget about stability for next year. rising so high will not lead price to stability.

Indeed, +/- 10 USD swing will become our routine, 2011-style massive plunge could happen on a weekly basis.
2036  Economy / Speculation / Re: Moderately wealthy individual going cold-bloodedly all in on: March 10, 2013, 12:50:56 AM
To be considered pump and dump one has to spread falsely positive information, now, there is no way I can find out if the OP tells the truth(I give him benefit of the doubt), but there is hardly any false "inside" information you can spread about bitcoin itself, everything is there for everyone to know.
2037  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 10, 2013, 12:09:51 AM
Wall means unwilling to sell.
2038  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Playable Alpha: USD/BTC binary options market on: March 09, 2013, 03:27:10 PM
Looks great, a lot of fun math in it. I have a silly question: I don't quite understand the format of the numbers you used in the formula for calculating the SumWager, is 1,35 supposed to mean 135 and 0,04 supposed to mean 4 for example? Also, it could be helpful if you edit the OP to include the open/close for wager notice, so that people could just click a link and see it.

Thanks for great feedback! In Finland we use decimal comma. OP edited.

What do you think, is it better that buying the option is a direct blockchain transaction that can be verified, or is it trustable enough if we build this on a similar easywallet urlpassword userinterface as eg. https://bitcoinvideocasino.com/?r=1813514798 ?

The latter would offer much better userfriendlyness but also require better security. The former has very few attack vectors and is almost DDOSproof.





I would say stick with the blockchain, at least when you are still small, most of the broken bitcoin startups actually went broke due to security problems, maintaining security would become an immense burden when you are yet to sort things out.

One more question: so the contract size I use determines the amount of payout I receive in the event of winning right?
2039  Economy / Speculation / Re: When in 2013 shall Bitcoin break its all-time-high of $31? on: March 09, 2013, 02:09:04 PM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g200zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzv

Bitcoin actually defies technical common sense, the exponential curve and red forest the RSI painted on the right sides of the charts are just glaring.
2040  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Playable Alpha: USD/BTC binary options market on: March 09, 2013, 11:56:56 AM
Looks great, a lot of fun math in it. I have a silly question: I don't quite understand the format of the numbers you used in the formula for calculating the SumWager, is 1,35 supposed to mean 135 and 0,04 supposed to mean 4 for example? Also, it could be helpful if you edit the OP to include the open/close for wager notice, so that people could just click a link and see it.
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