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2021  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: February 21, 2023, 12:29:00 PM
Sorry if I'm a bit curious about this, but I just want to ask a question.

Did anybody here really tried to use AI (like ChatGPT, or any other) to predict the outcomes of certain sport? Is anybody here who are relying on AI predictions on sports? Like in Basketball, or Football or even in Boxing. A follow-up question. If yes, what is the accuracy of it? How many of those prediction are right?

My apologies about my curiosity, but I just want to know since I'm also involved into gambling (just recently).

Hard to reply to this because you'll only get data points that in isolation won't provide any statistical significance to see if AI actually helps or not.

But that's how the human mind works, we are hooked to stories.

If someone tells you a story about how well the AI predicted one scenario, you'll believe it works great.

If someone tells you a story about how bad the AI predicted one scenario, you'll believe it doesn't work at all.

The thing is that our minds are not great to deal natively with statistics. We need math for that.

2022  Other / Archival / Re: Long-term Bitcoin accumulation continues on: February 21, 2023, 12:35:56 AM
It is left for us to buy Bitcoin now that the price is s cheap and accumulate it no w so that we can sell tomorrow when the price goes up. That is who investors roll out there plans and become more richer tomorrow with a mindset to plan for the future so they can make significant amount of money that would continue growing.

No one really knows if the price is "cheap", it all depend on personal circumstances.

If you mined with a CPU then the current prices are not felt as "cheap".

If you bought at the ATH, then the current prices are a bargain.

The thing is that in the future everything will keep changing, and you'll never know at what price it will be selling then.
2023  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: It is ok to sell your Bitcoin. on: February 21, 2023, 12:34:22 AM
~snip~
Whats the point on why we are trying out to earn money? For us to have something to spend,right? Therefore, it isnt really that bad to spend your Bitcoin if you are really that in need or having no other fiat option.

It is really just that there are people who are really that dead serious on holding coins no matter what.Its not bad to have that fixed mindset or goal towards your holdings.

It is really just not that all have the extra fiat money to solve out their financial issues or something that do talks on wanting to buy something.This is why it would really be
that situational if we do speak about other peoples conditions and preference on buying up on things.

Absolutely.

"Hodling Bitcoin" is simply called saving in the real world.

People save money to spend later. With Bitcoin it's the same. The more and longer you save, the more you can spend later on.

There's nothing wrong if you spend money, but of course if you spend more than what you earn, you'll end up poor. If you spend less than what you earn, you'll end up rich. Eventually. Same with Bitcoin.
2024  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: February 21, 2023, 12:31:40 AM
~snip~
Football means Brazil, this is everyone's understanding. For different reasons people support different countries. Commonly everyone are aware of Brazil as the football nation. Surely they'll be having every form of weather conditions and every player would've played on different weather conditions. So, the venue isn't gonna be a big issue.

Absolutely, that's why Brazil is still ranked at number one if the FIFA ranking. They have qualified to every single world cup in history (no other team in the world has that record), and they have won it five times (again, no other team in the world has that record).

They also qualified undefeated for Qatar (Argentina also qualified undefeated, but with more draws).

It's really an incredible team, almost every player is at top level, they just were a bit unlucky this time. The champions, Argentina, also lost a match, against Saudi Arabia, but they were lucky it happened at the stage level.
2025  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: February 21, 2023, 12:29:04 AM
~snip~
I first off don't believe legitimate true AI really even exists, as there are truly no self learning programs yet (like you see in the movie Her or iRobot), that being said it can definetly help you make a decsion if you're stuck between which teams to pick, programs can run all sorts of numbers to try and help predict the outcome.  This is basically no different than Saber Metrics, which is highly used in Major League baseball, so much so it's in fact changed the game. Coaches and teams rely on this data to do all sorts of stuff these days. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it helps...the movie Money Ball explains how this started.

Yes, it's true.

The current AI is not a general artificial intelligence. It's simply a great conversation generator based on some training data.

This means that you should take any inputs you get from chatGPT (or similar) with caution, as many of the things it says are not even factual.

The problem is that it looks and sounds as if the thing actually knows what it's talking about, because it sounds authoritative, and mixed with actual facts.

Lots of fake news will be generated with this.
2026  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: February 20, 2023, 04:49:16 AM
~snip~
Brazil has a lot to learn from their failure in December last year when they failed to advance to the final. if we look at the composition of the players that Brazil has, they are a star-studded team and talented players, but luck was not with them in last year's world cup. neymar, vini, casemiro will still be heavily involved in the 2026 world cup, we will surely see brazil at their best quality.

Winning the world cup is an incredibly difficult thing to achieve. Even the current champions, Argentina, lost one of their matches in the world cup, against Saudi Arabia.

So, in the end, Brazil lost the same amount of times than the world cup champions, (they both qualified undefeated), but Argentina had a bit more luck.

The thing is that you can be the number one in the world, like Brazil is, and still lose from time to time. You just have to be lucky and be incredibly good, to win the world cup.
2027  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: February 20, 2023, 12:27:38 AM
Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right? I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

The thing is that at the end of the day, you'll either run out of money, or you'll hit the maximum betting.

That's the problem, that the more gambles you make, the amount of money you're gambling increases a lot, for an ever smaller reward (considered as a percentage of what you bet).

I think it's one of those things that sound good on paper, but then if you do it without reading the fine print you're going to end up in a bad place.
2028  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions on: February 20, 2023, 12:21:25 AM
Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

I haven't seen All Quiet On The Western Front yet, but I'm reading a bit about it and it seems well deserved.

It's a story written by a World War I German veteran, so it means that it has a potential to be a great movie.

Seeing that it won multiple awards it makes me think that it's probably a great movie, so they seem to have executed the task up to the standard.

I'm probably going to end up watching it at some point, seems promising.

I guess it would have made sense to bet for that one.
2029  Other / Archival / Re: Long-term Bitcoin accumulation continues on: February 20, 2023, 12:17:52 AM
~snip~
Oh yeah me too! It's one of the way to accumulate bitcoin consistently. It's my own little way of doing DCA since it is assured that you are being paid every week and you will not worry about the hassle of buying bitcoin with your own cash every week. Its hard to expect a good profit from what we are standing right now, I believe it is just way more better to just wait and be more consistent in doing DCA and not touching the payment we are collecting every week. Long term is more worthy since we know that tit will appreciate over the time.

It's still work though, as you could be doing something else in the time that you're writing posts.

But having said that, it's a nice bonus for providing value to the forum.

I think sites are going to start doing this, like Stack Overflow, where good users actually get sats through lightning.

It's the future of the web, or at least a part of the web.
2030  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: February 20, 2023, 12:15:06 AM
When do they actually start the draw for the group stage, I mean to qualify your own for this tournament? That is actually quite far away, a tournament only in 2026. But the run-up to Qatar has also taken a long time and the tournament itself will be over in a few weeks. Brazil did not play that bad at the last World Cup. The question is whether Neymar still wants to participate in the team at the World Cup in 2026. And interesting whether Messi will also participate. And we will not see Ronaldo there anymore, he is now a few years older and does not have good opponents in the current competition. If you look at the favorites, it will be about the same as the last World Cup in Qatar.

Still early days as they've mentioned that they're considering changes to what they've planned for the new world cup.

We'll have to wait and see, they said that Qatar was very entertaining and that they might end up with a similar group stage.

Hard to know what they will decide, but there will be lots of teams anyway, so it might feel like a classification stage. Or maybe they just add more groups and get a longer second stage.
2031  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: February 20, 2023, 12:10:06 AM
~snip~
Due to the recent success of neural networks in areas (drawings, music, programming, etc.) where they were considered incapable of succeeding, the letter AI is now attracting everyone's attention  Wink
By the way, let me try to guess - your example is about processing statistical information? It seems to me the most obvious, because knowing the "digitized personality" of an athlete/team, you can more accurately predict its results.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on that information too much.

It's well known that current AIs basically hallucinate, so they will tell you facts with a straight face, making it sound all official, but in reality it contains lots of information that is simply made up.

I wouldn't rely on that kind of information, specially because it's hard and time consuming to fact check everything.
2032  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: First thing i will do if Bitcoin become legal tender globally on: February 20, 2023, 12:07:50 AM
~snip~
I think the use of Bitcoin will increase as time goes by. But earlier days people didn't use Bitcoin much. Now I see almost people know about Bitcoin and are starting to use it. In next few years Bitcoin will be more popular and Bitcoin will be used by all people.  The use will be more popular. It is really a matter of pride for us that Bitcoin will be used by people all over the world.

It's strange, it feels like it was completely unknown in the beginning, then it slowly started to be accepted everywhere, and then suddenly it kinda stopped, and now it's getting a second wave of being accepted everywhere.

Not sure what is fueling this, maybe the idea that if you spend something now it will be worth more tomorrow?

Also lightning makes it easier to spend micropayments, kinda like how bitcoin was valued at the beginning
2033  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: It is ok to sell your Bitcoin. on: February 20, 2023, 12:05:45 AM
~snip~
People really make selling your hodlings seem like a punishment and there were times I felt bad whenever I had to sell my coin even when I'm in some form of profit and this was because I felt I wasn't doing the right thing not until I held my ground and realized it was my possessions and the decisions to sell or hodl are mine and not someone else's to make.
It really should be stated  out  the type of hodlings and I think first one you mentioned which is buying some coin and coming back after some few years is the best but can mostly be achieved with greater possessions so as not to get liquidated no matter how bad the market might go against the hodler.

Yeah, absolutely.

The thing is that Bitcoin is just money. Of course it's great to have a mentality of saving more than what you spend, that's part of what makes Bitcoin great.

But the thing is that if you need to buy something, then of course you should be able to sell Bitcoin for that. That's the whole point of money, to acquire goods and services.
2034  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: February 19, 2023, 11:16:14 AM
~snip~
I agree that a team's superstars don't guarantee success. It depends on individual talent and teamwork. France, an example, has succeeded because its players know each other's strengths and weaknesses. I believe the Netherlands can recover from their recent struggles. Despite their lack of celebrities, they have a strong foundation of talented players who have performed well in their domestic leagues. They can improve their game and become powerful with proper instruction and tact.

Yeah, but at the end of the day having superstars will increase their chances of winning.

Of course it's never 100% but having great players will simply increase the odds of your team winning.

Also, playing well in their domestic league doesn't always mean they're going to perform great when playing for their country.

2035  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: February 19, 2023, 11:13:13 AM
~snip~
If using this AI will bring about consistency, then it's likely that people will use it to win, potentially defeating the notion that no one wins in gambling or that it's hard to win. Honestly, I doubt that AI would help us win, but there's no harm in trying. Let's see.

Yeah, well, casinos also are using AI to calculate their odds, so in reality it's the same as usual.

I don't think anything will change really, casinos will just change their odds, using the latest tech.
2036  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: February 19, 2023, 11:10:59 AM
~snip~
There is still luck in sports betting, not 100% analysis, as there are games that you thought the stronger team would win but it turns out not, as it is not always the strongest team that will win. Though analysis and also having experience are a must in sports betting to decide which team will win, but there is still luck involved, which I think consists in all gambling games. It is just that sports betting has an edge to win if you know the team better than if you play slots or other luck-based games.

Yeah, but the luck really ends up being considered in the odds.

So, if you're able to estimate the odds better than the casino will make you better off.

That's assuming you keep playing for a long period of time though.
2037  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: February 18, 2023, 07:16:33 AM
~snip~
If you don't do anything, then there's nothing that going to change your life, I'm sure that's the point and people who have that nerve risking things to change up or try to make something differently will have that equal chance in making its way to success, it's not all but most of those who take the risk and gamble with fate are those who experienced good results.

They are likely to make changes, the power of self-will give them that opportunities to find the comfort that they are aiming.

I would say that you need to keep improving to keep pace. If you stop improving then your life will change, for the worse, slowly.

That's why you need to take risks, see what works, and push forward. If you just look at life, then you'll just fade away into oblivion.

Some things won't work, others will. Keep pushing, and you will endure.

In gambling in particular though, it's all rigged against you, so you should probably only consider it as entertainment money.
2038  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: February 18, 2023, 07:13:12 AM
~snip~
If anything, I would dare to say that there is a chance that playing at home could impact negatively on the performance of a team, because the expectations placed over them, which could lead to stress and mistakes during the match.

It comes to mind the famous Germany Vs. Brazil during the 2014 world cup.

If I have time, tomorrow I would do some research and see if I can find some statistics about Playing at home.

Playing at home clearly gives you an advantage. Here are the world cup winners at home:

1930, Uruguay
1934, Italy
1966, England
1974, West Germany
1978, Argentina
1998, France

And you can see that the best performance of each team is usually when they hosted the world cup.
2039  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: February 18, 2023, 07:08:58 AM
~snip~
Emotion is just like a double blade which it could really be a disadvantage but at the same time it could really be an edge considering that AI's couldnt able to assess particular conditions which you would really be making out decisions basing into your own analysis.This is why its better to assess your own predictions basing up with your own skills and analysis rather than on making yourself that relying into these AI which i dont
see for it to be that relevant. Also, it should really be that separated because there are really that things which arent meant to be touched up by these things or not really
that relevant at all.

Well, the thing is that with an AI, you can use it to obtain lots of data points, and still decide for yourself.

It can make the process of gathering the statistics much simpler for you.

You don't have to trust what the AI thinks, you can simply use it as a faster search engine.
2040  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Know your limit on: February 18, 2023, 07:07:27 AM
OP you can’t be responsible for your friends decisions. We are all adults here & we are responsible for our own financial decisions. Some people just can’t control themselves but that is not our responsibility. Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the last 10-15 years, anybody with half a brain & an ounce of patience can make good profits by simply holding for a few years.

I don’t have any sympathy for people who start taking loans & pawning out their belongings. This kind of ehavioyr is not required to do well in bitcoin.

Yeah, getting into debt to buy assets is not really the best way of doing it.

Debt should be avoided at all costs, because whoever you have that debt with, controls you.

With Bitcoin, you're free. There are no masters. It's something so new that many people don't get it.
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