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It is my hope that at that point, as time progresses and the things you can do with each bitcoin increases, its value becomes inextricably mated to the ecosystem that underlies it. A year ago, I doubt I could've found an illustrator without having to convince him to take bitcoins. Now, I have a commission, and an illustrator seeked me out and offers to do my request for 0.5BTC. I think that's pretty cool. This goes back to the 2 pizzas, 10000BTC idea
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That was supposed to be Bank to Bank or (more conservatively) Business to Business. I think you've read the tales of how Bitcoins are supposed to become the financial backbone of the new world order. (sorry for the pun)
i have read those tales. Perhaps not NWO as we come to know it from conspiracists, but a form of a new world order regardless? Especially if the pyramid of fiat collapses. there would be a new order to the world, no? |
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If we start the middle Elliot wave then 101 would be dirt cheap, but if not then 99 would be a waste.
bueno, that's how I see it as well currently |
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Without increased buyer pressure, we would have dropped to 101 by now.
Just small players for now, but enough to delay or maybe revert (too early to tell) the drop to 101.
101 is cheap, 99 is expensive? |
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IMO it is a misapprehension of Bitcoin's economic role to see it as primarily an end-user currency.
Right the almighty supposed B2B killer usage. Keep telling yourself that it will happen, the Banks are literally at our doorsteps. LOL It is of my opinion that we are getting closer to B2B (bitcoin-to-bitcoin?). At least closer than we were before. These things take time, as I understand it... and I think he's referring to Bitcoin's economic role as a constant float in a sea of inflation etc. |
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Posiblemente mi español mejorará cuando me jubile en Puerto Rico o en algún lugar similar??  |
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weekend dip effect (or expectation of) might be in effect a bit this weekend as well
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Interestingly, mtg and bit are decoupled to a degree right now, with bit looking slightly more positive. The two exchanges are still strongly linked of course, but I noticed that there's at least some instances in the past 2 months were bit actually lead mtg. Not the norm though, usually still the other way round.
the increasingly better technicals on bitstamp could be driven by the fact that by now, enough traders moved left mtg and moved to bitstamp and now start actively trading there - and not only use bitstamp as withdrawing funnel |
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I keep seeing questions about why I need "so much money" to do this. I don't. I'm proceeding with this project regardless of how much money I raise, albeit very slowly.
The question of why I need "so much money" to quit my job is an entirely different question, and has to do with my personal budget, my wife's desire for stability, children in private school, mortgages, and so on. For a long, long time I hoped somebody "cheaper" would give this a shot, but I got tired of waiting.
Also, I keep seeing the claim that I need $1M to quit my job, which I have never said. I don't actually know the number - it depends on what I can sell to my wife, who has a desire for stability and security to an extent that many of you would consider unreasonable.
good luck  And now, here we are, when today’s parents believe they need a 7-passenger SUV for the “safety” of their children, they need to take trips to Disneyland for family entertainment, and they need to put their kids into exclusive private schools and even fancy preschools, as well as horseback and violin lessons from trained professionals in various surrounding towns, in order to keep them ahead in “the increasingly competitive world out there”. By pure coincidence, all of these needs happen to be very expensive ones that clever entrepreneurs and companies are making a lot of money from.
Did you ever notice how you never see a strong international trend of parents spending more time with their kids, or people canceling their TV service and reading more, or local parks and natural areas becoming increasingly flooded with parents playing with their children? Hmm.. why is this? Is it because we’ve learned that these activities are not good for our kids so we have wised up and replaced them with organized and expensive activities? Or is it because nobody is making money off of these alternative ways and nobody gets to look rich doing them, and thus the Marketing and Social Competition Engine is not tricking us into doing them?
Dear Mr. Money Mustache,
I’ve done it! I have lit the fire of Mustachianism in my own heart, and can suddenly see what should have been obvious from the start: the entire basis for most of the modern US lifestyle is complete bullshit, we are all wasting almost all of our money every day, and we could all be vastly better off if we just stopped doing it. I want to be free, and happy, and rich, and I want it NOW!
There’s just one problem. I have a spouse who is still deeply cocooned in the system. He (or she) still loves the fancy shoes, massages at the spa, video game systems, the $2500 bikes, the Apple-brand computers, or the Porsche Cayenne Turbo S minivan for carrying around our 10-pound baby. I love her, but I can’t seem to get through to her. I’m shouting through the 8-inch-thick foggy shell of hardened Consumer Mucus that has formed over her entire body, and I can see those eyes I fell in love with staring back at me from deep within that shell. But I can’t seem to break her out of it. How can I do it? Where are you guys getting these numbers... The ERE guy is like a hippie freak dude and lives out of an RV, right? Screw him and get on board with Mr. Money Mustache! Thanks goes to calinHere is how MMM lives retired for the last 6 years on less than $27k a year with him , his wife and 6 year old kid in their $400k house in Colorado: My Deprived Life: Raising a Family on Under $27,000 per YearThat link has photos of his house and toys. Here is list and comparison of their expenses for 2012 vs 2010 and 2011. I am now a self-proclaimed Mustachian! I will be debt free October this year and will then be able to stash about $30k for 2014 and $48k for 2015 and on... if I don't get anymore raises or other income (NOT!). That will see me retired in 12 years from now at the age of 50. Not too bad. Even better if I get married and start living with 2 incomes in the household.
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I just discovered Bitfinex and I think it's a fantastic site. I have bought, sold, lend ... but I need to know how to do margin trades. Unfortunately my English is very bad. I've tried 3 times and I lost a lot of money because I do not know what I was doing. I know, I'm an idiot ... but I want to learn. Can someone explain to me how it's done in the simplest way possible? If he explains it to me in Spanish, I will love him/her forever and I will send a tip in BTC.
I love you all.
Hehe, voy a tratar practicar mi español Cuando compras BTC por margen, pide USD prestado de prestamistas. Hay interés en este dinero. Puede ver el costo en interés por día cuando entras la cantidad de bitcoins deseas comprar o vender en aquí field:   En todo caso, compra y venta será como normal exactamente, pero tienes el costo de interés de margen. How was my spanish?? Any errors? Abrazos, Antony |
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Yes, until we get more suppliers that take bitcoin, the end result will typically be a conversion to fiat for merchants. This isn't a bad thing, it's just a way to conduct business logically. They'll likely fully switch over when more and more suppliers of what they need do take bitcoin so they no longer have to convert to USD, in addition to saving lost profits from fiat inflation, but til then, won't. The important thing is, it's this circulation that will increase bitcoin worth. The increasing tendency is to hold coins, it just will be done by more hands. This seems to definitely be a trend.
Also, the cool thing is, when they sell, someone's buying the coin who typically will intend to buy low and sell high, keeping prices stable.
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Vokain I agree, what I am trying to say is that Bitstamp changed soooo much since Bitfinex started using them and one should expect unrationality (there were so many examples when I was screaming "what a stupid buy").
Is it a stupid buy if they think on the time frame of a few weeks/months that we're going to eventually correct from the bubble deflation? Perhaps with the crazy long margin interests yes...but perhaps it's worth it to them? Consider that we are at 96 on Bitstamp, when one year ago, BTC prices were around 15 or less, and another year ago, BTC was recovering from a bubble that brought prices down to $1.998/BTC. With Bitfinex USD interest rates currently at 0.25%/day*365 days=91.25%APR, I'd seriously consider taking it. Either way, any of your perceived irrationality on Bitfinex's part will be countered by people taking advantage of the disequilibrium via shorts. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2826898#msg2826898https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2840689#msg2840689 |
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It is not true that the bid side on Bitstamp is weak, there is much hidden power behind, especially since most of the buys are driven by Bifinex.
Bitfinex allows both short and long. But I think the margin trade is running out of money for people to borrow. correct. Some time last week, the available USDs-worth to borrow and buy BTC was a bit over 3000BTC. Now it's about 1000 with even greater interest rates. Inversely, some time last week, available BTCs to borrow to sell was around 2000 BTC. Now it's around 5000 BTC with slightly lower rates. This suggests that people are less likely to short, so in order to equalize that for one reason or another, interest rates have to get lower. We might see some more shorting as a result of the resulting decreased cost to short. The increased supply to short might also mean that more shorts were covered in the mean time, but not necessarily. |
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It is not true that the bid side on Bitstamp is weak, there is much hidden power behind, especially since most of the buys are driven via Bifinex.
I'm saying it could be greater than it currently if arbitrageurs could withdraw their USD from Gox to buy at Bitstamp to better equalize the price diffference. [1]Yes, but if this would be possible the difference would get lower and lower (probably gox going down to bitstamp level). [2]Because of Bitfinex Bitstamp is sometimes so unrational (like 400 buys now). 1. Yes. On the flipside, bitstamp would also be going up to Gox's level 2. I disagree that this is irrational. It makes sense, it's not like Bitstamp is selflessly or recklessly holding up the price on Bitfinex. It's more like they are buying bitcoin and using bitstamp as a source to get coins from due to BFX's poor local liquidity. This is a reflection how the Bitfinex players, or rather, the players using Bitfinex, are judging the market at this point in time. They will sell when it's time to sell. |
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It is not true that the bid side on Bitstamp is weak, there is much hidden power behind, especially since most of the buys are driven via Bifinex.
I'm saying it could be greater than it currently if arbitrageurs could withdraw their USD from Gox to buy at Bitstamp to better equalize the price diffference. I also think Bitfinex's influence is in the long run negligible on Bitstamp's prices. If bitfinex thinks the price will go up, then they'll buy more on bitstamp. Inversely, if Bitfinex thinks the price will go down, they'll sell more on bitstamp. Bitfinex will not always be bullish..but it's worth noting that it currently is so..... Bitstamp's bid-side influences: new money (a lot of which formerly would've went to gox) Bitfinex speculation
general Bitcoin marketBitstamp's ask-side influences: Gox former supply of BTC as they move from Gox to the functioning exchange and the desire to sell them Bitfinex speculation
general Bitcoin market=== Unfortunately, Gox fiat can't follow the bitcoins that are moving to Bitstamp. This puts the bid-side at a disadvantage, unless the velocity of new buying money is greater than the coins being sold, either to be speculated upon or withdrawn out of the system (remember that Bitstamp is currently the biggest exchange where you can withdraw "real" money). If I were selling coins on mtgox, my prices would be much, much higher than they currently are. The risk of not being able to withdraw is tremendous and it would take a huge premium for me to sell my liquid coins and take that risk on, because I might not ever be able to see what I exchange said coins for. |
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we still see this phenomenon:
1) During a rally, people who still have USD/other fiat funds at MtGox buy BTC
2) Many of them transfer them to other exchanges, mainly Bitstamp
3) As a consequence, the order book bid/ask ratios are inverse at MtGox versus Bitstamp
4) Ultimately, MtGox market share drops further. Today, we again see Bitstamp with the same USD market share as MtGox:
mtgoxUSD 103.7500 11,865.21
bitstampUSD 96.8500 10,781.35
Not only has the gap between MtGox and Bitstamp increased to about $10 again, but the order book is starting to look like a mirror image. MtGox:  Bitstamp:  It appears that Bitstamp is far more bearish than MtGox. This is surely a reflection on people trying to buy BTC to get out of MtGox? I suspect Bitstamp is leading the market now too, which makes me wonder whether the 95 support level is about to give way. or more people able to sell on Bitstamp? Conversely, the fear of selling on MtGox is what is keeping selling pressure suppressed there Though a higher bid/ask ratio typically and historically is bearish, in Bitstamp's current situation that might not be necessarily true IF the overall bitcoin market is bullish. As Bitstamp absorbs mtgox's asks from mtgox's predicament, Bitstamp is only slowly growing on the bid side from only steadily increasing market share for the purchase of bitcoins. As in, the only reason why the greater supply of coins on the Stamp isn't dragging prices down as much (S/D on bitstamp definitely a factor though, I guess that the price on Stamp is relatively lower for this reason), overall demand of Bitcoin outweighs the greater supply/demand ratio on Bitstamp ie why Bitstamp prices have absolutely gone up as well Hopefully Bitstamp gets some more USD inflows to equalize as time passes and 4) Ultimately, MtGox market share drops further. at least until they resolve the concern that any Gox fiat depositors and BTC sellers will not be able to withdraw their Gox fiat. Until the fiat on Gox can be withdrawn, the arbitrageurs cannot take advantage of the lower Bitstamp prices, and Bitstamp's bid side has to depend upon new money (and it does look like all this new Bitcoin money is being funneled into Bitstamp, not MtGox). This seems to be true, and perhaps it's just that bullish that things are working out as well as it is so far. I stand by my other hypothesis a few pages back that our reversal is in part a result of MtGox's troubles and though it's counterintuitive, considering how we have handled it thus far, overall it's bullish as ever. The fact that new USD Bitstamp inflows are countering the downwards pricing effect of Bitstamp taking on a lot of MtGox's selling pressure suggests so. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2837009#msg2837009https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2837036#msg2837036 |
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The GOX thing, one can argue, is increasing buying pressure for those "trapped" there. I don't know, I feel like I'm walking on eggshells though and don't like it. Too much work in front of the computer. My rationale was that yes, the bullish volume might be relatively increased as a result of that factor, but overall volume would still be suppressed because people do not want to put money into Gox, the former de-facto place to send your money if you wanted to purchase bitcoins. With the removal of their market role, I would guess overall volume decreased as people find they don't want to put their money into Gox anymore, and start looking for other places to find it. Bitstamp's volume is steadily increasing I've noticed. I whole heartedly agree with that. People with money there now might be feeling the only way out is to buy and transfer coins out. If you don't need the money, you just keep it their in Fiat and hope Gox is legit. But, as you said, the overall effect is that Gox is probably getting less new money (at least from people like me and you). Those huge huge buys up from $65 was new money imo and the large recent buys continue to be new money. Perhaps big money knows Gox is ok?... not necessarily There is some exciting news that will materialize soon though.
the exciting news is that bitcoin is rallying, in line with our forecast :-)of course, I didnt think for one second than any substantial amount of money from $130 down was withdrawn back into bank accounts. There's still quite a bit of latent money sitting on exchange sidelines I imagine. ooooh, special indicators My vague guess is something about an exchange. By the by, did you guys notice that tradehill looks like it's going to make a comeback? https://tradehill.com/I imagine Gox USD inflow is currently like turning off the water spigot that you fill up a bucket with. As you turn it off, the water inflow to the bucket becomes more and more limited, but still, you have lots of water in that bucket. That water isn't going to go anywhere unless it is (with)drawn out, or evaporates (through transaction fees). The act of people selling bitcoin on Gox would be akin to picking up water and pouring it in another part of the USD bucket, and in doing so, the other party gets something (BTC) for it. Prices should be higher to reflect this. |
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here's a side to side comparison if it helps  |
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The GOX thing, one can argue, is increasing buying pressure for those "trapped" there. I don't know, I feel like I'm walking on eggshells though and don't like it. Too much work in front of the computer. My rationale was that yes, the bullish volume might be relatively increased as a result of that factor, but overall volume would still be suppressed because people do not want to put money into Gox, the former de-facto place to send your money if you wanted to purchase bitcoins. With the removal of their market role, I would guess overall volume decreased as people find they don't want to put their money into Gox anymore, and start looking for other places to find it. Bitstamp's volume is steadily increasing I've noticed.
I'm not familiar with EW, but I can comment if you give more info on it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristicsBasically, at least how i understand the principle, trends move in a 5-wave count fashion, due to fractalized psychologies. A five wave count can either end with a ABC corrective trend before continuing the trend the count was on, or, it can start a new 5 wave reversal count. My hypothesis is that on the way down to 65, we had the end of a downwards 5 waves. Right now, we are facing the question whether or not we are finishing an ABC corrective trend, or beginning a new count of 5 waves up (of which we would be in wave 3, confirmed by passing 115). This to me looks like a head and shoulders pattern if it plays out, and a failure if we finish out an ABC pattern and continue heading back down.  |
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Though it is a long shot, perhaps the low volume is simply a result of the current exchange market conditions suppressing volume? Just a hypothesis, although what would like a HnS pattern would fit with my current elliott wave count/guess (reversal of a down 5-wave count into a new up 5-wave count) here's a little rough sketch i did yesterday https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gxn7wES1/For the bulls: It's a longshot, but we might be in the mother of all head and shoulders:   The plot thickens...  Very good spot! Strong resemblance   Not being Bullish or Bearish, just looking at the pattern and volume - The volume pattern is not following what is normally expected. We'll see: The head and shoulders pattern can sometimes be inverted. The inverted head and shoulders is typically seen in downtrends. (What's noteworthy about the inverted head and shoulders is the volume aspect. The inverted left shoulder should be accompanied by an increase in volume. The inverted head should be made on lighter volume. The rally from the head however, should show greater volume than the rally from the left shoulder. Ultimately, the inverted right shoulder should register the lightest volume of all. When the market then rallies through the neckline, a big increase in volume should be seen.) http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm |
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