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2021  Economy / Speculation / Re: Toknormal's February Bitcoin Analysis on: February 28, 2015, 05:29:07 AM
Do I like this because its good, or just because I want it to be true Wink

Nice post, similar sentiment to sgbett though.
2022  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2015, 04:28:14 AM
I gotta say, coinbase exchange volume and order book is filling out nicely for being a month into the game.

I remember when every big spike would be met with THE one trading site going down (the original goxxings) and a precipitous crash to follow. This is going to be a wild ride for a few years to come, but at least we have gone from one point of failure to many. You have to perceive progress with the wide view, and not just today's exchange rate on today's market.
2023  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2015, 03:31:31 AM
Strange ass candle on OKCoin on wisdom, what happened there?

a leveraged position blew up.

On such a low volume? prob. just a glitch

It may not have been a margin call. It was prolly someone 20:1 long lost his nerve when he saw the chart sinking.

Nm, likely glitch.
2024  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2015, 02:32:57 AM
Strange ass candle on OKCoin on wisdom, what happened there?
2025  Economy / Speculation / Re: What about liquidity? on: February 28, 2015, 01:40:01 AM
You raise a good point, using options and leverage can basically put you in whatever type of exposure you want, even neutral.

To date, the problem has been trusting an offshore, dubiously registered and secured entity with custody of your assets. Maybe some of these new entries will fill that void.
2026  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2015, 01:01:36 AM
Observing dat 1200 btc bidwall at 255.5 on finex.

Pulled.

Edit: 500 wall below it being nibbled, then fully eaten.
2027  Economy / Speculation / Re: Perfect plan on: February 28, 2015, 12:48:19 AM
What sorcery is this!?

2028  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2015, 12:37:55 AM
There's a 500 btc bid wall right below it so 1700 in the area, not sure if the same trader.

I used to like bitcoinity for the bubble days gifs, but it's pretty weak as a tool these days.
2029  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2015, 12:26:36 AM
Observing dat 1200 btc bidwall at 255.5 on finex.
2030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2015, 04:47:11 AM
Stamp: "Profit taking, what's that?"
2031  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2015, 04:30:25 AM
$266 on finex is in sight. Hory Shet.

Edit: Got to within 750 coins or so before relief valve kicked in.
2032  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2015, 04:00:41 AM
Shorts holding a trembling finger over the panic button.
2033  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2015, 03:50:51 AM
Well, that escalated quickly.
2034  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 26, 2015, 05:52:57 AM


Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default


Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging.  They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.



In the US... They've doubled the money supply in the last decade, and the only tool is printing more, where does deflation come in, in this equation?
2035  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2015, 04:44:39 AM
Nice try with that throwback Chinese panic dump. Market giving shorts false sense of hope and dealing pain to longs with tight stops. Figures.


P.s. why today's announcement of the new bitcoin derivatives exchange is a "game changer".

m/id/102456187]http://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/id/102456187

Quote
This is why the announcement of a bitcoin futures-and-options broker is so exciting. Merchants will have more options to hedge bitcoin exposure which eventually could lead to fewer merchants immediately converting to fiat

And you can expect bitpay and coinbase will be using this new service!

If you could tolerate the third party risk, why not just take your cold storage coins and double down by putting them into 1 or 2 YR futures and go long?  If youbelieve long term priceis headed up, you could increase your profit w/oputting additionalcapital at risk. Also a futures market would be a much more accurate gauge on upcoming price movements than the nearly universally terrible technical analysis from Coindesk, cryptocoin news etc.

EDIT: the above link says NOTHING about the derivates exchange. Not a launch date, not a URL, not a name. nada.

Coindesk hasn't picked this story up yet?!?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-goldman-director-launches-bitcoin-derivatives-brokerage-2015-02-25-5203121

I found the name of the exchange: it's called LedgerX. You think those morons could have mentioned it in  the article.

This is a former Goldman analyst via his linkedin. I guess Goldman Director sounds better for your press release. May even be true, most banks have thousands of "VPs".
2036  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2015, 04:22:30 AM
It is 50k BTC of demand satiated in a day. Not inconsequential.

But is it 50k of demand from those that would use exchanges, or from those who would buy off-exchange?

It's also 50k BTC of selling pressure relived in a day. It's been know for a long time and priced in.

The fact that .gov has 94k btc to sell has been known, who the hell will buy them is more of an unknown. Will you help?
2037  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 26, 2015, 04:15:24 AM
With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.
No sense in qe right now as economy is seemingly stable.. it will happen once usd goes parabolic

Parabolic deflation of USD?... What forum am I on?!

Look at the charts, read between the lines..

Wow, burn.
2038  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2015, 04:03:55 AM
23,985 BTC swaps on bfx! Why would anyone sell short when they could just sell their coins? Oh, that's right.They don't have any. Leverage is piling up on bith sides. This is gonna blow big one way or the other.

USD swaps at 70,500 BTC equiv. I agree with the rest of your sentiment.
2039  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 26, 2015, 03:49:06 AM
With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.
No sense in qe right now as economy is seemingly stable.. it will happen once usd goes parabolic

Parabolic deflation of USD?... What forum am I on?!
2040  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2015, 03:33:03 AM
Bulls had their run to try and take $250 a couple times, now bears have their chance to make a run at $220.

I think nothing major happens (220-250) until the hours before auction news.

Why so much concern for the auctions?

The last 2 USMS auctions had almost no effect on the market. Why do you think it will be different this time?

They were won by institutional investors, not by trader kids who use online exchanges.



News relating to it, # of bidders, potential leaks of prices paid. It is 50k BTC of demand satiated in a day. Not inconsequential.
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