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Yes, bitcool, I know.
We are in the 32-35$ area over the past days. The jury is still out whether we will break 30$ or not, but even if I loose the 50 BTC to you, I am happy since I am short Silver since 43-49 $ ;-)
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The tree breaks once the exponentially rising lines is broken to the downside.
This runs currently between 7.4-7.6$.
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I am now also there. It is an exponential rise that will see a dramatic reversal. http://bit.ly/kpcFR7 |
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I did a bit more analysis on the exponential rise and took a well known market for reference.
We are in a "x-mas tree" pattern, which very frequently happens after exponential rises.
I would not be surprised if we see a mirror image on Bitcoins in the next 2-3 weeks,
from whatever high will be marked
(perhaps it is the current one at 8.45 $ or we see another pop up higher.)
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The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall?  the MACD indicator typically is a trailing (not leading) indicator. This means that prices may already be back on the rise, even if there is a divergence in the MACD. I just want to reiterate two things
1) We are still in a long and short term rally phase. No evidence yet for any reversal.
2) As we have entered an exponential rising phase, the risk for a big drop has increased substantially. Be very careful when trading this market now. It has changed its nature big time.
We will see bulls and bears fighting with each other heavily until this is resolved.
This is not a market for unexperienced traders (any more).
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I want to get this back to the original purpose, the technical picture and here it is  As long as those trends hold, we may see higher highs. |
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In any case, I think we will enter exciting times in the next couple of days.
While picking the top is difficult, the exponential rise makes BTC/USD very vulnerable to a sudden, hefty set-back.
What happened over the past hour is just one small indication (prices dropped 20% in just a few minutes on high volume). Once some folks get nervous and sell bigger chunks, an avalanche may start.
But this is normal in markets. Corrections always happen. The question is from where? Current levels, 10£ or even higher. But be alert to a big decline.
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Forecast materialized real well...
New all time high and more to come, given the strength of the rally.
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I took my day off for the 25th for a trip to Paris for lunch  me too ;-) |
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And again I have reset the market sentiment poll.
Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?
click on the poll above
Please VOTE
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I have never made any secret about the fact that I like the bitcoin idea and hold some bitcoins.
At the same time, I always provide a fair analysis in both, up and downside directions.
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Fortunately for bitcoin, there is still so much rising publicity and interest that no major drop in prices is happening.
It would still be good to continuously improve liquidity and easy of transcations as this will help bitcoin to get its fair value ... which could be in the thousands when measured in USD if more and more businesses accept it.
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...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...
MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit. I am aware of this and this is good, but still far from ideal. If an investor would hear this from a typical broker he still would not have great confidence and as a result may not trade on this very platform, because there are no clear criteria under which conditions higher transactions are allowed. Transparency is key. |
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Please excuse me for being new, but I can't seem to find how ratings work. I am just wondering because I seem to have acquired a negative somehow and can't find why?
I have also given you a positive one for being so curious and polite. |
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Some big order came in this afternoon, leading to a breakout to the upside above 3.65$
We may test the highs of 4.15 $.
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Of course, if the exchange does not work, price does not work (change..)
Overall, the current situation of the exchanges including MtGox as the biggest, is far from working properly.
This can be one fundamental reason why BTC prices may go down significantly. Confidence into the exchanges must be high to attract new funds from investors.
Confidence is shaken now with all the DDOS.
Secondly, the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors. No serious investor will put hundreds of thousands of funds into an exchange if he can not take out funds within hours (max 1-3 days) to shift asset allocation quickly.
(This is no blame to people operating the exchanges. They are great entrepreneurs, do this often for free and doing a great job, but this is not enough, given the fact that 11,000 new coins are generated daily, 77,000 weekly, 335,000 monthly = 1.2 million $ at current BTC/USD rate)
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Guys, if we are very numerous it will be hard to find a table in a restaurant. I can book one but in that case please confirm that you can be in Paris "la Défense" at lunch time on may, the 25th.
But in worst case scenario, we'll always be able to find some room in a café. So I guess it's fine.
I will be there at lunchtime on the 25th |
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recent price pattern looks still better if BTC/USD breaks down lower.
I'd give this a 65% probability over the next 7 days.
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