How do you make sure that the people actually have the USD they are trading for BC.
Exactly. The edges are where it falls apart. Not sure how to address this. |
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@bitcoin_bug I've thought about how to implement this, but it all comes down to how you redeem bitcoins to < insert currency of choice > on the edges. Here's a sample idea that I was trying to work with:  However, as it says - there are plenty of things to be worked out. Storing trades via blockchain is all well and good, but it wouldn't be particularly fast. Not sure what the best implementation would be at this point. |
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The only rule is, if you ask - you can't become one  Beats me, I'm kidding. Who knows. |
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Look like that CNN video caused the price to spike up. I was wondering why it was in the $12's to bounce back up so rapidly.
As it has probably been explained before, the lag time between getting an account registered, funded, then pulling the trigger on a trade is longer than the time interval between the story and the price increase. No cigar, maybe check back in a week to see if there was some casual effect. |
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Thanks for the chart, chodpaba.
Ran the last daily close from 07/17 through the model:
07/18 Close 13.48 / Predicted 14.23 -5.27% degree of error
Taking the close of 13.48 through the model, it says:
07/19 12.33 (Predicted daily bar close price.)
Guess we'll see...
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I'm also not a fan of any 'business' that is actually using the words 'pyramid' in the promotional materials, whether they really are or not. I don't find it cute, funny, or very helpful for bitcoin at large - since a lot of criticism is leveled at the system based on the assumption that it is a multi-level intake scam.
If you run one of these, you are at best an idiot - at worst, undermining bitcoin and it's potential future with a simplistic money-grabbing scheme.
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I'd encourage this only if you emphasize solo-mining over pools. I think we need 'other' on this chart http://bitcoinwatch.com/ (at the bottom) to be at least 25% - 33% of the pie for adequate balance. Just to get some robustness into the equation and remove the potential DDoS central-point-of-failure that pools present. But getting people to learn about bitcoin, perhaps with a pre-installed client on a bootable linux USB drive, would help to get the message out there. I also like the resulting acronym from "Bitcoin User Group", since we have a unofficial "bitcoin bug" logo floating out there |
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Too bad there is not an actual Linux version.
They do indicate you can run it under WINE, with subsequent 'listening' servers running natively in linux if you're using multiple machines. Not sure if the python API wrapper could help, but it's there. I am a bit surprised it isn't a native linux application. Also, interesting notes - based on some of the models I've built using this process, it indicated the prior daily bar close of 13.16 would result in a daily close for 07/18 in the 14.23 area. I was a bit skeptical seeing how that would be over a dollar to the upside, but wouldn't you know it, we're in the 14.00 area now - which puts it in the confidence band of the projection. Interesting stuff... |
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My qualifier for bitcoin conforming to 'bubble' status is price declining to the 5 dollar level by the end of August. I doubt this will happen, however. Being above that level by the end of August would confirm the bubble assumption is incorrect.
Having just witnessed the two-dollar plus rally from 12.50 just now, I'm not subscribing to the 'slow death' theory either.
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I have no problem with people dumping their bitcoins. This selling behavior happens all the time in the 'real' markets. Right before it spikes upward, that is. The current impulse move down which started July 2nd peaking on the 5th has exhausted itself. I'm waiting for my indicators to move into positive territory before buying in again, which I believe will happen near the end of the month. Can't sweat the wiggles, its the long term that you've got to be focused on. Unless you're scalping at Mt.Gox with a 0% fee account, then by all means, trade away |
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It is easy enough to collect the daily data from BitcoinCharts. Just click on a chart, set the Time Period to '1 day', set the check box for Custom Time and then you can just scan through each day to collect open, high, low, close, and volume...
Ah, thanks! I'll update my charts and see what is brewing. Also, I've been messing with genetic algorithms using this tool: http://creativemachines.cornell.edu/eureqaAllows for multiple inputs which are cut-and-pasted into an excel like spreadsheet, label the columns and assign variables - then unleash it to find mathematical relationships in the data. I've got a few models already from this, but I'm keeping a close eye on it before I publish anything. I encourage anyone working with difficulty/price to give it a go. |
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I think it is a poor idea to use the Baht symbol. It would reflect poorly upon us if we made it so. I'm sure there are better ways to come up with our own symbol.
Even a BTC Friendly fontset would be better, if you wanted to use the typical "B" with the two vertical strokes, it would be part of that mapping. I guess we just need a CC licensed fontset to further that end. Any typographers willing to produce one?
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If the budget talks stalemate and no agreement is reached by July 22nd, then the US would have in the first time in its history - a ratings downgrade. This of course would result in some interesting knock-on effects. While many have been concerned about the monetization of debt, an event like this would thrust this issue into the public eye.
My prediction is there will be a compromised agreement at the last minute, with grandiose claims made by both sides, while the Fed continues to extend the issuance of debt through non-publicized means.
Executive summary, kick the can further down the road - but the can is getting heavier. Delaying the inevitable with terrible consequences.
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I'm glad bitcoin is going through this now. I want it to be attacked from all sides, bashed by every resource, scrutinized and proclaimed a failure right out of the gate. If the underlying system can't survive this, then it wasn't meant to survive. Seeing how we haven't gone down to zero in relative valuation compared to < insert currency here >, and the participation in the network measured in TeraHashes per second hasn't declined in any significant way.
I'd say this bodes well for the future.
We've got until the end of August to disprove some of the more fantastic 'bubble' claims, then after that it is only a matter of time before other obstructions are surmounted and toppled.
Please, do your best to kill bitcoin - it only becomes stronger after every obstacle is defeated.
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Fortunately, we have a control experiment for this, when Suggester made many of the same arguments being made today on Feb 18, 2010: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=57.msg390#msg390. I think his logic was reasonably sound, if not perfect, and many of the things he said have since come through (e.g., speculation and bubble/bust being the main thing driving interest and transactions for Bitcoin). On a similar note to what CurbsideProphet is doing, I kindly asked the guy that actually runs bitcoinworldmarket.com if he could do a service to the community and tell us on a daily basis what his actual sales volume is ( http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28276.msg357205#msg357205). His original post expressed his concern about loans not being viable for Bitcoin (or any long-term deflationary scenario) and how this would choke business growth (for the record, my posts make it clear which side of that debate I take). He hasn't taken me up on this, but I wish some other serious merchants would (e.g. spendbitcoins.com). We can argue all day long about "YES YES YES Bitcoin will take over the world" or "NO NO NO it will crash and burn", but there's nothing like actual data to settle these questions. The 'bubble' aspect will be proven or disproven by the end of August, ( ref: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26117.0 ). As far as the success of a statistically insignificant sample of one, I think all we're learning here is variance. The main point being is bitcoin has quite a bit to go before there are large network-effect increases. I think this is the basis for many who defend bitcoin, myself included, because we know the potential exists - using an argument that it has already failed due to its relative immaturity is ludicrous. It would be like criticizing an infant for not knowing how to drive a car. We'll get there, but expectations must be governed by the time needed to do so. |
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Interesting, chodpaba.
I really have to get my charts updated. Been scrounging for daily data (already parsed from the firehose of tick-data available), but it looks like I'll have to write my own methods to do that.
As you know, I think August will be key in proving whether bitcoin will get beyond the perceived 'bubble' symmetry in the earlier run-up. Personally, I think it will.
I keep asking various people, but if anyone knows of a tabular daily historical source where I don't have to convert UTC timestamps and filter through a bazillion ticks, I'd be very thankful. And no, as far as I know bitcoincharts doesn't offer any kind of Open/High/Low/Close 'browsing' on their charts historically.
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Blockchain by short-wave? Packet Radio?
But of course, if such things come to pass we'll have more problems than just how to connect to the rest of the world.
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I'd love to see a real-time histogram of the block generation, just so it could allay fears like these. It's just variance, like other posters have said.
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Wow. Another stalwart among the Bitcoin die hards. You guys are a smart bunch. If I was the Fed, I'd be very afraid.
We accept your apology. |
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