I think if the price manages to hold above $40 by the end of the week, the bears will be in trouble and the bulls would have won this battle. But it's still anyone's game at this point and the critical US market has just woken up!
This has been happening since Jan. at least. The "bullish bears" have been saying they're waiting for a "crash" to buy back in since the price hit $15. I think the flash rally/crash yesterday may have been their last, best chance to get back in. Yeah, you see how they just can't wait to jump out to spread all kinds of "doom and gloom"! |
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You've never written a relational database application with millions of rows of data that is queried, inserted and updated at a high rate and that needs to be (pseudo) real time, have you?
you're mistaken. I designed and now maintain 2 such dbs. One of them has tens of millions of rows in some tables (this one is mssqlserver on some 2 year old 2 x quadcore). The other has millions of rows in one of the main tables. I run quite complicated search and update queries on that one (based on http requests). Performance simulations showed >40 of the most complicated search/update/insert_into_multiple tables combos per second on. While production is deployed on ok hardware (single quadcore), these performance tests were done on a fucking single ATOM 350 (dualcore) with nfs-mounted volumes (!!). No oracle magic either, just simple mysql innodb. For reference: mtgox aggregated order book (acquired by fulldepth api call) currently has about 10,000 entries. Can't be more than 50,000 individual orders in the orderbook. Maybe I'm missing something, but I still think I could do it on my nexus 4. Anyone knows how Gox moves people's deposits around? If you use http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/ , you would notice that whenever a trade is executed, a lot of transfers take place on the blockchain, in principle it should be just bookkeeping, no real transaction should happen. I don't know why and if it has anything to do with their sluggishness. Anyone who could answer my question? |
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Is the lagging even caused by trade volume? Now there is very little rading yet the response doesn't seem to improve a lot.
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You've never written a relational database application with millions of rows of data that is queried, inserted and updated at a high rate and that needs to be (pseudo) real time, have you?
you're mistaken. I designed and now maintain 2 such dbs. One of them has tens of millions of rows in some tables (this one is mssqlserver on some 2 year old 2 x quadcore). The other has millions of rows in one of the main tables. I run quite complicated search and update queries on that one (based on http requests). Performance simulations showed >40 of the most complicated search/update/insert_into_multiple tables combos per second on. While production is deployed on ok hardware (single quadcore), these performance tests were done on a fucking single ATOM 350 (dualcore) with nfs-mounted volumes (!!). No oracle magic either, just simple mysql innodb. For reference: mtgox aggregated order book (acquired by fulldepth api call) currently has about 10,000 entries. Can't be more than 50,000 individual orders in the orderbook. Maybe I'm missing something, but I still think I could do it on my nexus 4. Anyone knows how Gox moves people's deposits around? If you use http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/ , you would notice that whenever a trade is executed, a lot of transfers take place on the blockchain, in principle it should be just bookkeeping, no real transaction should happen. I don't know why and if it has anything to do with their sluggishness. |
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Is there a way to short sell Bitcoins? I mean especially in times like these one could make a fortune ...
bitfinex, come over here, I have got a few coins that i could lend.... |
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The bears side is equipped with some rapid-firing weapons, along with a special transportation system called "blockchain", they can deliver dozens of thousands of rounds of ammunitions into their enemies in just a few hours, but their ammunition is limited and not regenerable. The bulls side, on the other hand, possesses some seriously high-caliber heavy weapons, which take a long time to reload, potentially several days, but once they get loaded.....  |
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...
My theory is if the bears want to succeed, they need to pull off another wave of selloff in about a few hours, pretty much any crash consists of two waves of massive selloffs with one dead cat bounce sandwiched in between, the time window is quickly closing for them.
This is what is fascinating about markets, the schizophrenia of the bulls and bears. Anyone bullish wants the lowest price possible so they can load up, and when fully bought they want the highest price possible for when they might sell. Anyone bearish wants the highest prices for selling, and then when sold, wants the lowest prices for when they decide to buy. So the heart of the matter is: are the bulls fully bought (bear market imminent) or are the bears sold out (bull market imminent)? Something visually similar ...  If the price ever goes to single digits, it would potentially benefit me hugely, as I am long term bullish and I could greatly expand my holdings, but I don't want it to go that low ever again, and I believe all bulls and bears should not, anyone who was here when the price was in single digits knows the price was outrageously manipulated, the market liquidity was simply too low, and with such low prices if you have $1M you could pretty much buy enough to have it both ways, such a market would not be good for bitcoin businesses, for investors, miners, traders, for pretty much anyone in this system. The market size has to grow to a certain level first before bitcoin could ever be truly successful, the rally has to continue, anyone still wants to get single digits coins is either in purely for speculative profits or pretty short-sighted it seems to me. |
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How big was this dump? Do we know it?
Thanx.
About 100K if you count from the top, much larger than any dump we have seen in this rally is what I am sure about. and we are back to 45:) Bulls on parade? My theory is if the bears want to succeed, they need to pull off another wave of selloff in about a few hours, pretty much any crash consists of two waves of massive selloffs with one dead cat bounce sandwiched in between, the time window is quickly closing for them. |
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How big was this dump? Do we know it?
Thanx.
About 100K if you count from the top, much larger than any dump we have seen in this rally is what I am sure about. |
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I really hope coinlab takes over. They can't do much worse at least.
You have to give mtGox one thing: security is pretty tight. I hope this doesn't change through coinlab. It's more important even than speed. Also adds to the fact that they are the safest because they are the biggest, a somehow chicken-and-egg problem. Gox can not just take your bitcoins and run away, for there would be no other place to sell them. We can live with out Gox. I not a fan of Mt. Gox but even I do not think they are scammers. The problem is, pretty much all other exchanges are not so reliable in one way or another, it's one thing for us to consider if an exchange is a scammer, for the big players it's another thing. |
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I really hope coinlab takes over. They can't do much worse at least.
You have to give mtGox one thing: security is pretty tight. I hope this doesn't change through coinlab. It's more important even than speed. Also adds to the fact that they are the safest because they are the biggest, a somehow chicken-and-egg problem. Gox can not just take your bitcoins and run away, for there would be no other place to sell them. |
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I've always asked myself how many of them fall off the train.  We Bitcoiners know it, we only need to look at our charts  Actually, many of those early adopters sat in the first class jumped out of the window as well. |
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Wonder if you would be interested in estimating early adopters' reserves again? I have not finished downloading the blockchain yet.  Yeah, I'm generally interested. Just need a couple of quiet hours and the muse to kiss me. Been thinking about this. this http://statistics.ecdsa.org/ would tell us the info if it was up-to-date. Maybe we should pester ThomasV (?). Yeah, I have been using this, it's great but a bit outdated. |
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Wonder if you would be interested in estimating early adopters' reserves again? I have not finished downloading the blockchain yet. |
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Stubborn
Hmmm....they still think they are the center of this world |
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No, it's not a recovery, it's a dead cat bounce! Keep it on topic!  True! Suckers buying coins at $45 you all going to regret it once we crash to 43! We are now stabilizing at somewhere around $43, ridiculously good call!  Also, it ain't a flash crash if I still got time to buy! |
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Did anyone with buy orders of 36-45 on here actually get them filled during that WTF moment? Curious about what actually happened there.
I had orders about 38 and they got filled. I filled at 34-37, though can't buy more as I am out of funds like the big guy up there.  |
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When will we see the first 5M USD volume day?
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Why did the wall collapse? I thought it could make it past today.  |
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somebody is hacking Mt.Gox, run for cover! coins for 0.001 soon!
No, stop spreading FUD please. FUD? Do you guys all live in denial and can not accept facts? This chart here has clearly shown that the market is going to crash: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147800.0 Remember, the price itself incorporates all information, including possible future hackings! |
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