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2081  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Martingale revisited on: November 30, 2019, 06:31:17 AM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working.

I hold the same opinion in this regard. There are no strategies and tricks that can assure victory to gamblers, it is all about fate. If a player is destined to face failure, he can never ever turn it into win by making more efforts or increasing amount. If a strategy is working for a person today, it wont for tomorrow. Why would house let the gambler only win? That is not the way of doing business certainly

They have to allow some of them

As long as the majority think it is impossible to win. Casinos cannot but allow some people to win and then let them run away with the spoil since otherwise no one would be playing. This is a required trade-off (even though many casinos nowadays are laying themselves out to skew it in their favor by every means available like KYC/AML requirements), and as long as most players lose in the end, it is okay (read, it is quite the opposite of "that is not the way of doing business certainly"). In fact, I probably shouldn't even have started this thread as it could potentially change such attitudes (like "it is all about fate")
2082  Economy / Gambling / Re: WOLF.BET - Provably fair dice game $1,000 Daily Race7-day streak bonus on: November 29, 2019, 05:32:49 PM
most people don't mind KYC? speak for yourself , I mind and almost all of my friends hate it with passion
it is not only to be afraid that your data will be used in nefarious purposes , it is simply defeating the main principle of crypto - anonymity
if I choose to show my face and reveal my personal info , I could choose dozens of other payment methods
in my opinion most of the casinos are using KYC as a predatory tool to not pay winnings
yes they are legally obliged to collect KYC , AML laws and such , but in reality all these Curacao , Macao etc. casinos are risking - their license revoked 
When one user uses one platform that requires KYC, some scenario will pop up in that user's mind.
- If that user uses documentation of others (relatives such as wife/husband, parents) to do KYC and those relatives don't use crypto exchanges, casinos; sure that user won't care about KYC. It's not yours and the risks for their relatives (just in crypto area) is low too.
- If that user decides to use own documentations to verify KYC; I am sure he/she will care about identities and correspondent potential dangerous risks. I hesitate to join any platform requires KYC and try to avoid such platforms as much as possible. But I know the fact that in the future (maybe near), more regulations will be implemented and KYC will be (somewhat) unavoidable.
I think the contradiction or at least miscommunication rises from the question, "do you not want to give your KYC because you think the people you give it to will do bad things with it, or do you not want to give your KYC to keep your gambling a secret?".

I think @leea means that "most people don't mind KYC, they are just afraid people will do things with their data" in the sense that, "most people don't mind giving their KYC and known as a gambler, being known as a gambler is fine for them, it is the fear of people using it for bad stuff that keeps them from sharing it" which is totally different from people who just don't give it because they don't want to be known as gamblers. Those are two very different reasons for not sharing your data with someone online

I think it is a little of both

But as the saying goes, many a little makes a mickle (or something to that tune). People apparently don't like to be seen and known in the hood and in the world as gamblers while they don't like to have their identities stolen either. Add the two things together, and you will have an almost insane level of hate toward any "KYC/AML-friendly" casino, especially the one which tries to impose these policies on players wanting to withdraw (according to the first-hand reports)
2083  Economy / Economics / Re: Taxless society idea on: November 29, 2019, 03:27:26 PM
No. You are wrong here. A taxless society means that you will not get these services for free. You need to pay in order to qualify for these services. For example, it won't be the state or the federal government which handles the law enforcement. That job will be left to the residents' associations. They will hire private security personal for law enforcement and the members will pay a fixed amount in order to avail the services. The same with infra-structure projects such as roads and bridges. Those residents' associations which benefit from these projects will take care of the expenses, by collecting a fixed contribution from the members. And know what? IMO, this is a much better option than giving all the power to the federal government.
As you say, they will pay as a service.  If this happens, people with income can benefit from these services in the most professional way.  What about the poor, the homeless, who will protect them and provide services to them?  If what you say happens, that country is scary

You seem to have messed up with quoting

So I fixed it for you in my reply and advise you to do the same in yours lest you should be accused for plagiarizing your own comment. Regarding the poor and the homeless, the solution seems to be straightforward and kind of intuitive. It is these unlucky ones which should provide these services (some part thereof). Obviously, not the high-end services which require skill and expertise, but simple and easy ones. The problem solved

It fact, this is pretty much how it happens now. The rich pay the taxes, and through these taxes the lowest strata of society get their support and sustenance. In this way, the removal of taxes could actually make the lives of these people better by encouraging them to be productive and useful to the society as a whole (instead of being parasites)
2084  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you have control or not? on: November 29, 2019, 02:57:46 PM
But to achieve control, or rather, to realize that control has been achieved, you need to put yourself in a situation in which you usually lose control, and this time hold it

There is another approach

As you can just try to consciously avoid the situations which trigger your loss of control. Indeed, it is not always possible, but the successful implementation of the approach you mention (i.e. deliberately putting yourself in a situation where you typically lose control and kinda get used to it) is not always possible either. There are things which will always upset you, and losing money, as it seems to me, is one such situation

In my opinion, control is an opportunity to stop gambling painlessly following your strategy during an irresistible desire to continue

If you feel an irresistible urge to continue, forcing yourself to stop gambling won't come as painless as you think it should. If you succeed at it (which is not given at all as if it is in fact irresistible, it is, well, irresistible), you will likely start to experience something like the withdrawal syndrome
2085  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling with Fiat or Crypto? on: November 29, 2019, 10:19:28 AM
As you can see from 12 most known cryptocurrency casinos already 7 ask for KYC/AML verification and please don't be fooled by this statement "Rarely Asks" because it means that for sure they will ask you for verification when it comes to withdrawing a higher amount of winnings, which was almost always the case in my personal experience. So far I was forced a couple of times to do verification on withdrawal in casinos mentioned above and of course, they are marked "Rarely Asks"

Okay, let's look a little bit deeper into this

And when we do that, we cannot but see that those casinos which "rarely ask" ("often ask") are also often accepting regular currencies. So it kinda makes sense. And as you say yourself in your reply, they are asking for verification "when it comes to withdrawing a higher amount of winnings"

Therefore, it immediately begs the question, i.e. does it actually have anything to do with the real purpose of KYC/AML or rather with the casino trying to prevent people from making its bankroll run dry and instead forcing players to keep on gambling (KYC/AML being only a convenient excuse)? So what's your take?

To be honest, sometimes I just think that they are using these "regulations" to their advantage. Just look at how many complaints are out there from people who couldn't withdraw their winning because of failed KYC/AML verification in crypto casinos. This is just overwhelming and for sure many times misused by online casinos

And here we are
2086  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling with Fiat or Crypto? on: November 28, 2019, 05:24:17 PM
So, if you want to play with crypto and verification is not an issue for you then there is a lot of casinos where you can deposit cryptocurrencies and play, but I think that many people will finally choose FIAT casinos if KYC/AML verification will be fully implemented, because it is much easier for many to deposit and withdraw FIAT (still only an estimated 3% of people use crypto). Because of regulations, crypto casinos are loosing a very big advantage they had against FIAT casinos

Such development is highly unlikely if you ask me

Unlike exchanges (though it is fully applicable to exchanges as well, especially those trading only cryptocurrencies, not even speaking of the DEX variety), the total majority of online casinos are cryptocurrency only, i.e. you can neither deposit nor withdraw fiat. Thus they are encouraged to get the softest regulation possible as it means more players, and that basically means no KYC or AML. Regulating such casinos comes pretty close to regulating the whole of the Internet (read, it is next to impossible and prohibitively expensive)
2087  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling as a profession: there's people who live out of gambling? on: November 28, 2019, 04:58:19 PM
~ In other words, if you have enough dough, you can run pretty safe martingale strategies. Well, until the casino all of a sudden stop being fair, raises the minimum bet amount, or simply makes bets so agonizingly slow that you lose all interest using these strategies

From my experience, the main problem with martingale strategies is that you are either running it in a safe mode, making less than $0.2 per hour(and still risking to lose like $100 at once), or, if you want to make, say, $5 per hour, and you set your base bet accordingly, you can lose those $100 in a blink of an eye. And yeah, slow bets make the safe mode even less profitable

There's a whole lot of misunderstanding and confusion about martingale

And how it can be employed in an efficient way, both in respect to risk/reward ratio and total profits. More specifically, your approach itself (like making a certain amount of dough) per hour is skewed. With a proper martingale setup you earn through variance. You can wait for it days on end, and when it finally comes, you earn a certain percentage of your capital with one long losing streak ending with a spectacular win

Obviously, you should discard in your mind how much you make per unit of time (as otherwise you won't have enough patience to stick to your strategy) and think exclusively in terms of variance, i.e. how much of it you can survive, how often it should come and how much profit it should bring. Variance is what you should be looking for, not some dust you earn after each winning roll

I feel like you are saying something interesting, but I can't completely grasp it. Can you please explain with dice game, as an example, what do you mean by "earning through variance"?

Glad you asked

That's how I see it, but I know that it's the simplest way of looking at martingale. So, I'd like to comprehend your view, and that's why I'm asking for a similar explanation of the martingale setup for earning through variance

That's a skewed view (actually two views) on how to run a martingale setup (my way)

Variance here means that you earn only on long losing streaks which don't come too often, and are actually statistical outliers. That's why it is called variance, i.e. variation from the average (the average here being your average losing streak). In layman terms, you are looking for some really long streaks but not long enough to bust you

So you set your increase on loss as well as multiplier pretty high, and start small, the bare minimum. Given fast enough autobet, you wait for an outlier which will come sooner or later and bring you dough, like a couple percent at once. Then you increase your safety margin. Indeed, you may still bust but you must be extremely unlucky to end like that
2088  Economy / Gambling / Re: WOLF.BET - Provably fair dice game $1,000 Daily Race7-day streak bonus on: November 28, 2019, 04:05:51 PM
Most people also do not mind KYC,,, in my opinion,,, they are only afraid that people will do things with their data

Isn't this sentence composed of mutually contradicting statements?

To me, if you are afraid that someone will be using your personal data (identity, etc) for their obscure, probably nefarious purposes (which is a reasonable and totally justified assumption in the Internet), you can't "don't mind KYC". The point is, you can be damn sure someone will in fact be eventually using the details you provide about yourself in the ways you may not quite like, so you can't possibly be pro-KYC in places like online casinos, exchanges, or in any other place where they ask you to provide personal data (no offense intended to WB or any other decent casino out there)
I think it depends on what you do for the KYC as well, we are talking about casinos right now I know that but for example on exchanges there are KYC because at the end they are legally bounded to governments that they are based on and that is why I feel like exchanges do not have any choice but to do KYC and that is not the same for the casinos

But that's not what I mean

Let's admit it, casinos or otherwise, people don't like KYC policies and having to submit their personal information. Just the fact that some exchanges are legally bound to demand from you your identity doesn't mean either that this information won't leak into the net and be used against you. It is a pretty common occurrence that personal details get stolen (or declared stolen while actually sold to interested parties), so no amount of government regulation is going to prevent or stop this

Now, casinos are not really "legal" like the other ones, it is still legal but in a shadier grey way where they usually just have licenses in at weird countries like curacao or whatever and that is the "legal" way they are so they don't have to ask KYC to customers, yet if they ever want to be a more legit decent place, they could do places like from Las Vegas or Macau or Malta and I would totally agree to giving them my KYC if they are based on those places

Personally, I don't smell a lot of difference between Macau and Curacao. Is there any? Just asking
2089  Economy / Economics / Re: Taxless society idea on: November 28, 2019, 09:13:02 AM
At this point most governments are taking 30-50% of your income. 300 years ago kings would only take 10-20% of your income every year and countries did exist

I don't know about 300 years ago but in the Medieval Europe (more specifically, in England) you had to pay a certain amount of gold coin irrespective of your income. In other words, even if you had no income, you still had got to pay a tax. It was called a poll tax, otherwise known as head tax, since it was levied as a fixed sum on every person. And if you couldn't pay this tax, you had your property confiscated and yourself turned into a beggar. It was a pretty ruthless system for simple folks which had been causing social unrest and rebellions

So much for 10-20% of your income
2090  Economy / Economics / Re: BEEN IN THIS GAME FOR 6 YEARS on: November 27, 2019, 08:27:04 PM
Overtime fiat money will get worse, even more than it already is. And I think we are already experiencing it, bit by bit. I don't know what will the government do to prevent this or to slow it down. But considering how people treat Bitcoin right now, it's inevitable

Things are obviously more complex than that

As they say (well, actually that is what I say), not all fiats are born equal, and if the US dollar inflation is in fact quite negligible (while we shouldn't compare it on its own apart from the changes in wage rates within the same period as the latter are rising too), this is not the case with almost any other fiat currency out there (except for a few top currencies like Euro and Swiss frank). So the government, or rather governments, are not going to do anything about it for the simple reason they are the cause of price inflation and, most importantly, they are the ones profiting from it

That's even more detailed than I expected. In the end, the governments are profiting from this abomination. As the saying goes: "If it ain't broke, why even try fixing it?", that's what they say at least. Now, I don't know if I should get used to this, or to just live with it. I guess the latter is all I can do

That's not a secret and has been known since the beginning of fiats

During the American Civil War both sides, the confederates and the unionists alike, were printing paper dollars (gray and green backs respectively) like there was no tomorrow. And it did actually happen so that there was no tomorrow for the former. And if you think about it, it makes perfect sense as the winner takes it all, while "there's no sacred ground for the conquered and no rest for the wicked"

So no matter who wins, the means (in this case deliberately devaluing the national currency to squeeze more blood and sweat from the local populace) justify the ends. Wars are extreme cases, of course, but there is a lot of ground in between. I mean, for the printing press not to stop working even for a second. And that's why Bitcoin counts as there is no salvation in paper money, at least locally (globally only gold is likely going to make it anyway)
2091  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling as a profession: there's people who live out of gambling? on: November 27, 2019, 01:58:35 PM
Doubling your amount after winning wont work for long as the probability of loss with each bet remains same. There is no safe mode here certainly. The right way to gamble is to enjoy bets instead of thinking about bets.

It is more about doubling your bet after a loss

Probably, this is what you meant to say. And it actually works quite well provided you can run pretty long losing streaks without busting. If this is the case, you effectively turn the tables in your favor and now, instead of being lucky not to bust, you become unlucky to bust if you bust (there is a subtle difference if you think it through thoroughly)

But casinos are very well aware of this approach, and they typically don't allow you to pull off such a trick by either raising the minimum bet amount, which makes employing martingale an exercise in futility and stupidity, or limiting your bet speed, which makes martingale useless as you can't get enough variance without risking too much
2092  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Traders who never bother to learn how to trade on: November 27, 2019, 10:49:08 AM
Most people are not good at trading

And they will never be no matter how much they could be studying the subject. The irony is that in order to find out whether you are capable of profitable trading in the long run (i.e. beyond pure luck), you should actually engage in this activity, i.e. start trading. In this way, if you can't be a trader, you will most likely end up losing a pile of money. And what adds insult to injury here is the fact that successful traders often lose money too when they are new to trading (as everyone is a novice trader at first)

We don't know what people are doing with their everyday life, how are they, what are their skills and capabilities. I've known some persons who has eagerness and willingness to learn, they are really doing their best to study it but they can't really make it, they are having hard time to learn it maybe because they do have lack of time and it's not their line of business

Hard learning is nowhere near enough

I mean no matter how hard you learn in order to trade profitably and become a successful trader, you simply may not have it in yourself. Your capacity for long-term profitable trading should be sort of built in or hard-wired in your brain chemistry. In other words, if you are not internally built for it, no amount of learning is going to help 

If anything, you should start from rewiring your mental setup which on its own has nothing to do with trading as such. But is it really worth the effort, time and money if the positive outcome is far from guaranteed? To put it differently, you can't become an Einstein in anything unless you are already born into that Einsteiness
2093  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Hodler, you motherfucker. on: November 27, 2019, 08:24:37 AM
Ouu yeah then if you can't resist to sell when seeing the market crash.. I think you are not what I call a hodler Grin .
There's no harm to look at the charts sometimes to test how strong your faith... rather than forget it for years without following any progress in it , sounds like a bit gambling style Huh

But that's how things are in real life

People are weak, and their faith is weak too. Otherwise we wouldn't be seeing such an endless stream of people whining and crying around about Bitcoin crashing and them losing money. So if we talk reality here, people looking at the charts "sometimes" are actually proving how feeble, frail, and shaky their faith in fact is

I think we couldn't even call it faith, rather fantasy about "Bitcoin domination" in the future. If this "faith" was as strong as you assume it to be, there wouldn't be a need for inspecting prices once a week or so. Really, if you were a true believer in something, would you have to check the object of your belief for its existence every now and then?
2094  Economy / Gambling / Re: WOLF.BET - Provably fair dice game $1,000 Daily Race7-day streak bonus on: November 27, 2019, 07:44:49 AM
Most people also do not mind KYC,,, in my opinion,,, they are only afraid that people will do things with their data

Isn't this sentence composed of mutually contradicting statements?

To me, if you are afraid that someone will be using your personal data (identity, etc) for their obscure, probably nefarious purposes (which is a reasonable and totally justified assumption in the Internet), you can't "don't mind KYC". The point is, you can be damn sure someone will in fact be eventually using the details you provide about yourself in the ways you may not quite like, so you can't possibly be pro-KYC in places like online casinos, exchanges, or in any other place where they ask you to provide personal data (no offense intended to WB or any other decent casino out there)
2095  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling as a profession: there's people who live out of gambling? on: November 27, 2019, 07:12:28 AM
~ In other words, if you have enough dough, you can run pretty safe martingale strategies. Well, until the casino all of a sudden stop being fair, raises the minimum bet amount, or simply makes bets so agonizingly slow that you lose all interest using these strategies

From my experience, the main problem with martingale strategies is that you are either running it in a safe mode, making less than $0.2 per hour(and still risking to lose like $100 at once), or, if you want to make, say, $5 per hour, and you set your base bet accordingly, you can lose those $100 in a blink of an eye. And yeah, slow bets make the safe mode even less profitable

There's a whole lot of misunderstanding and confusion about martingale

And how it can be employed in an efficient way, both in respect to risk/reward ratio and total profits. More specifically, your approach itself (like making a certain amount of dough) per hour is skewed. With a proper martingale setup you earn through variance. You can wait for it days on end, and when it finally comes, you earn a certain percentage of your capital with one long losing streak ending with a spectacular win

Obviously, you should discard in your mind how much you make per unit of time (as otherwise you won't have enough patience to stick to your strategy) and think exclusively in terms of variance, i.e. how much of it you can survive, how often it should come and how much profit it should bring. Variance is what you should be looking for, not some dust you earn after each winning roll
2096  Economy / Economics / Re: BEEN IN THIS GAME FOR 6 YEARS on: November 26, 2019, 04:56:57 PM
As they say (well, actually that is what I say), not all fiats are born equal, and if the US dollar inflation is in fact quite negligible (while we shouldn't compare it on its own apart from the changes in wage rates within the same period as the latter are rising too), this is not the case with almost any other fiat currency out there (except for a few top currencies like Euro and Swiss frank). So the government, or rather governments, are not going to do anything about it for the simple reason they are the cause of price inflation and, most importantly, they are the ones profiting from it

It's illusion to expect that cryptocurrencies will replace fiat currencies in any way. Yes, some fiat currencies suffer from inflation but this has happened many times before and not all fiat currencies are the same and in same position. So expecting from governments to react isn't realistic.
Don't forget that very small number of people in the world is using cryptocurrencies and that is not going to change in some dramatic way any time soon and that is big issue in terms of biger success of cryptocurrencies on a global level

It is definitely not the only way to success

As there are many ways to the top. Personally, I don't mind if cryptocurrencies (say, Bitcoin and a few other major cryptos) turn into a strong and robust store of value (competing stores of value). Then people will keep bitcoins and spend fiat. If you ask me, it is a pretty good "compromise". Fiat currencies are going to lose their value like they have always been doing (maybe a little faster due to people moving their wealth from fiat savings into crypto) while Bitcoin will be rising and gaining more power, momentum and impact as a solid digital store of value. Really, what's wrong with that as long as you are able to spend your bitcoins in the "old way" if you choose so?
2097  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Hodler, you motherfucker. on: November 26, 2019, 03:25:32 PM
If you are looking into the market once or twice a week, you may see where the ship sails, and thus choose your entry and exit points (mostly, the latter).  Indeed, if you make a couple trades a week, this won't make you into a day trader (though opinions may vary), but that still makes you a trader, not a 100% holder

Technically, it is exactly the idea behind "hodling", i.e. to forget about your cryptocurrency investments for a few years (the longer the better). You can see such advices springing up here and here of the forum, especially when someone was unlucky to buy at or near the top. To sum it up, a hodler is essentially a failed trader
Just because you do checking the price constantly once a week or so , doesn't mean you'll set your buy or sell position.
You could be just curious whether are you there yet reaching your investment target

So you expect to reach your investment target in a week or so, right?

Well, I actually don't mean that you should sell or buy every time you look at the charts, but it still seems to me a bit counterintuitive to check prices now and then if you intend to keep your coins for years. If you do, then seeing the price crash may make you nervous and anxious about the future of your investments up to a point where your faith gives in suddenly, and you sell at a loss. This is a real-life scenario with the implication being that you'd better not check the prices "just out of curiosity" or "for fun"
2098  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Martingale revisited on: November 26, 2019, 02:52:34 PM
After that I first withdrew everything (the withdrawal was fast, for the record) and then deposited a certain amount of my own coins, with which I'm rolling now. Indeed, as I bet my own money now, not free coins, I have set even safer parameters which allow me to survive longer losing streaks. So yes, my system is working

And sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear

Ok nice that it's still working. Do you also raise your base bet after you win a certain amount?

No, I don't do that

I'm still starting with the minimum possible amount, which is 0.00000001 doge. However, I have compiled a spreadsheet that I use to check when I have earned enough dough to increase the multiplier. Right now I'm at 129.9% but I couple my bets with trades, so when Dogecoin goes down, I will deposit more and thus I can raise the multiplier, and vice versa. If Dogecoin goes up, I withdraw some coins to sell into the rising market (though there haven't yet been a lot of volatility recently to unleash the true power of this approach)
2099  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Martingale revisited on: November 26, 2019, 02:25:25 PM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working

Here're the last stats as of November, 1st:



After that I first withdrew everything (the withdrawal was fast, for the record) and then deposited a certain amount of my own coins, with which I'm rolling now. Indeed, as I bet my own money now, not free coins, I have set even safer parameters which allow me to survive longer losing streaks. So yes, my system is working

And sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear
2100  Economy / Services / Re: [Hire] Translator In Need on: November 25, 2019, 07:34:52 PM
I can help you with Russian in case you need it

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