https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1854250.msg21877683#msg21877683

 among other sources here.

 2 years ago people were wondering if Bitcoin would ever make it back to $1000.

 Then the Chinese exchanges opened up the "buy Bitcoin with Yuan" fire hose.


 20/20 hindsight is NOT a good way to figure for the future.

 10k is too high for an Innosilicon A5 (at over twice the hash and similar power draw to the D3).

 Given Bitmain reliability on their recent miners, I believe that it would never pay off at that price - even on FREE electric if you had one in hand TODAY.

 I don't' think it's going to be a "burst" - what I see happening (to a degree it already IS happening) is a slow, gradual, fade back into pre-price-jump "got the rig running, keep it running as long as it's profitable, but don't build more 'cause I doubt they'll ever pay off" level of mining for most folks - and even the farms in the very low cost electric areas are going to continue to stay in a "slow grow if any at all" mode.

 At this point it would take a far larger collapse on the price of ETH vs $ to cause a "burst", and that just doesn't seem to be happening.


 The "bubble profit chasers" seem to have mostly faded away, now it's getting back down to us serious "for the long term" miners.

 3 months later and AMD GPU availability is still very spotty, prices are STILL up a lot - NVidia has seen noticeable improvement but it's STILL not back to where it was on pricing and availability in Febuary.

 Still waiting on the bubble to burst.

 I remember seeing someone claim 1800 hash/sec for a Vega 64 on Monero, and they didn't have the thing optimised yet.

 That's THE highest performance out of any single card period, though there are a very few high-core-count CPUs that can match or beat it (Top-end Threadripper can match it pretty close, ANY Epyc can beat it, and I think a few of the top-end Intel Xeon server CPUs can also top it).

 Because, AS HAS BEEN EXPLAINED A FEW TIMES IN OTHER THREADS, they can't get the CHIPS due to limits of foundry capacity to keep the miners in stock continuously.

 Well, IF they are a scam they're at least not getting crazy on their claimed numbers - but a 6200 RPM fan is NOT intended for home usage, that piercing whine gets LOUD.

 I had some of the old 80mm Delta "screamers" that pulled very close to that RPM level - they were NOT easy to damp the noise from.

 While the Mini form factor works well on a 1080, the 1080ti is a big enough jump in power usage I'd be seriously worried about it's cooling.



 GMO's "mining card", IF it ever actually gets created, is at best a year and more likely 2-3 years away.
 As of right now it's little more than a roughed out concept since it's intended to use 7nm tech that doesn't EXIST yet (outside of possibly early LAB prototype work).

 For the power usage it's pretty BAD - and slower than many GTX 1080 much less getting completely blown out of the water by any 1080ti.

 On the other hand, there are reports that Vega does well on Monero (XMR) mining.

 As much as I despise it, CounterParty was multicurrency long before your wallet existed.

People are used to the idea of a new generation of miners showing up every 6 months to a year (in Bitcoin, in Scrypt it was more like every OTHER year even when they weren't caught up to semi state of the art).

 Too many of them don't understand why that *CAN'T* continue any more.

 I suspect that the D3 might be 28nm given it's relatively LOW efficiency compared to some of the competition.


I'm 100% certain that Bitmain prefers the CERTAINTY of "cash in hand, can turn it around into another batch of chips to sell MORE miners" as opposed to the longer time of return and MAJOR uncertainly of mining with the machines.


 The people that got rich out of the California Gold Rush were mostly SUPPLIERS to the miners - Levi Strauss being the most famed....

There almost definitely won't be a "L4" model - Bitmain reserved the even numbers for big rackmount-type miners that they haven't done at ALL for years.

 L5 - won't happen 'till a new semiconductor process node becomes available for a significant efficiency gain, be it called "10nm" (Intel) or "7nm" (pretty much everyone else).

 The days of miner manufacturers doing a new, much more efficient miner model whenever they choose to spend the money are OVER - they ended when Bitmain released the S9 ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ART SEMICONDUCTOR PROCESS NODE.

That Corsair fan will probably CAUSE overheating - it's not designed for high backflow situations like an S9/D3/L3+/S7 present to a fan, and it's MUCH LOWER airflow to start with than the stock Delta fans.

 As I recall, somewhere in the 378 range seems to be optimal for 1080ti mining.
 373.06 for older NVidia cards.

More issues to consider.

 Even when 7nm reaches actual production - what are the YIELDS going to be like?
 How long will they take to improve and by how much?

 What is the design cost going to end up being (14/16nm design is EXPEN$IVE compared to anything before it).

 What is the cost per chip going to end up being like?

 What is the CAPACITY going to be like the first couple years?



 Keep in mind that the S7 is still viable *NOW* if you have fairly cheap electric despite being a generation outdated.
 The S9 isn't going to immediately become unprofitable even when 7nm reaches actual production in a miner design.

 I'd pretend to be impressed but old Windmill-type servers with 4x Xeon E5-2650 CPUs can come VERY close on the hashrate for a lot less $$ (as low as $315 + shipping depending on drive and video options picked through https://www.theitmart.com/system/servers/other/1u-rackmount/quanta-windmill-open-compute-f03c-2-node-1u-rack-server-s-594).

 MUCH higher power usage though - probably about 500 watts for a full 4-CPU dual-node system with 4x 95 Watt TDP CPUs.

 I'm seriously considering replacing my A2's with some of these when the A2s are no longer profitable, if Monero profitability holds up fairly close to where it's been lately.

 Definitely Vega is a lower-cost per hash option than Threadripper or Epyc at that 1800+ figure.


 Zotac Mini is long enough to block part of the blower air intake for the ASUS Turbo - might want to go with a MSI or Gigabyte ITX instead if you have one, THOSE do leave the opening for the blower intake clear.

Might be a driver issue, especially if you are using too recent of drivers.

Perhaps Gridcoin should add support for the GIMPS (Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search) project - the holder of something like 8 of the CURRENT "largest primes known".