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2121  Economy / Speculation / Re: FAKE news: "3 billion HKD lost" in Mycoin.hk bitcoin exchange runoff on: February 11, 2015, 08:16:05 AM
Even at today's exchange rate, they would need 1.5 million coins to get those number, definitely a scam.

I guess this is a planned money laundering scheme: Make money transfer to mycoin.hk account and claim the money is lost, get some tax return from government and later receive transfered money at an offshore bank account
2122  Economy / Economics / Re: Research paper on Bitcoin Fundamental Value & Decision to Mine on: February 10, 2015, 05:59:45 AM
Not only does this develop a model for the intrinsic value of bitcoins based on cost of production ...

Bitcoins are produced at a fixed rate and are not consumed. The cost of production has no effect on their supply or demand, so it has no effect on their value.

Take a look at Stellar, NXT, and Mastercoin. These three coins have the 2nd, 5th, and 8th highest market caps, and yet their production costs are 0.


Bitcoin is consumed, many people buy some coins and hold it for at least 10 years, and in these 10 years they are disappeared from the network, just like a house bought

Of course from a long term perspective they might get spent some time later eventually, but just like central banks' gold reserve, they could also accumulate more and more and never get spent in generations. A large amount of reserve can serve many other purposes, security for example

If there is a demand for the coin, people will always select the method with lowest possible cost to get coin, which will make the exchange rate very close to the mining cost

2123  Economy / Economics / Re: Research paper on Bitcoin Fundamental Value & Decision to Mine on: February 10, 2015, 05:31:10 AM
Very true, to the end, it is the electricity cost decide bitcoin's value. After a certain degree of consolidation, only the miners without equipment cost (means the equipment cost is already paid back) can stay in the network and mine. Any new equipment investment will cost too much and have too little hope of ROI due to extremely low income (barely make back the electricity), unless they are much better in efficiency. A 20% increase in efficiency will not motivate the upgrading due to equipment cost

At beginning of 2012, bitcoin exchange rate is $5, hash rate is 8TH, for a general GPU miner at 2MH/W, the whole network consumed 4MW

At beginning of 2015, exchange rate is $200, hash rate is 320PH, for a general ASIC miner at 2GH/W, the whole network consumes 160MW

So the exchange rate jumped by 40x and the electricity cost also jumped by 40x

However, since the coin per day now is only half of 2012, it can mean two things: Either the current price is too low and should bounce back to $400, or the daily coin supply on market has not changed too much despite the daily coin generation has been cut by half (Due to more sell-off by centralized mining farms)
2124  Other / Archival / Re: Pictures of your mining rigs! on: February 10, 2015, 04:18:34 AM
This is where my next mining site will be deployed  Grin

[img ]http://photo.mystisland.org/solar0.png[/img]

Good luck with the heat!  Grin

Did you see those snows on the mountains in the background?  Cheesy

I did. Summer will come: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/GMMZ/2014/8/9/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Quote
Weather History for Ouarzazate, Morocco
Month of August, 2014


                                     Max    Avg    Min    Sum
Temperature    
Max Temperature    41 °C    39 °C    35 °C
Mean Temperature    33 °C    30 °C    27 °C
Min Temperature    28 °C    22 °C    17 °C

Use the heat to melt the snow on 3000+ meter high mountains and use the water to drive some hydro power plant. Of course you would need acres and acres of mining farms to achieve that effect and the electricity generated might not be strong enough to drive them
2125  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Review] Spondoolies SP20 review - A Green miner with a Loud fan on: February 09, 2015, 09:32:22 PM
Ok so i read the posts in this thread and maybe i missed it but i didnt see ne one posting about doind something as simple as flipping the fan 180 degrees.

Interesting, I guess that will really help for the ASIC chips, since air direct blow on the heat sinks. The question is about the rest of the components, for example the PCI-E connectors, they will receive hot air blow out of the case, if they also have a high load, will they burn?

Currently I modified open case have all the ASICs running below 85c at 0.61V, 43db, but I found out that ASICs works better when they reach 100c, I can try this inverted fan setup when I have time
2126  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Antminer S5 or SpondooliesTech SP20 to order - few questions on: February 09, 2015, 09:13:01 PM
Just found this post here:

The heat sink on SP20 is just entry level plain aluminum heat sink, they don't have huge surface area like those heat pipe heat sink with many thin aluminum fins, so the airflow must be very high to reduce the surface temperature

I just measured 20% fan speed noise at 1 meter away with my sound meter app, it is still 67db, and I personal feel is close to in car noise on highway (70+-db)

Would be interesting what hashspeed is reachable with these settings.

If the heatsinks are the same as the SP30/35, they've got a 4-5mm copper base do they not? Its inset from the footprint of the main alu heatsink so isn't visible from above. I wasn't able to remove my SP20 heatsinks as they're aggressively glued to the PCBs and would have likely caused damage.

There is a copper base plate, but it is connected to the aluminum heat sink by a layer of thermal compound, without any mechanical binding, this defeated the purpose of that material
2127  Other / Archival / Re: Pictures of your mining rigs! on: February 09, 2015, 12:31:26 PM
This is where my next mining site will be deployed  Grin

[img ]http://photo.mystisland.org/solar0.png[/img]

Good luck with the heat!  Grin

Did you see those snows on the mountains in the background?  Cheesy
2128  Economy / Economics / Re: Quantity theory of money and cryptos. on: February 09, 2015, 12:14:11 PM
Is it possible to create a crypto based on the equation of the quantity theory of money MV = PQ?

I would say that it is impossible to create a crypto that is NOT based upon the quantity theory of money Smiley

The quantity theory of money is an evidence.  It says that the total amount of X coins that has been spend during period T on things, is equal to the total price (in X coins) of stuff that has been bought with X coins, which is tautologically true.

The amount of coins spend is equal to the amount of coins existing (M), times the average number of times they have been spend during time T (which is obviously equal to the amount of spend coins, by definition of the average V).

The amount of stuff bought is equal to the amount of stuff (Q) times its average price (P).

The quantity theory of money is true for any thing that is traded against stuff at a price.


This formula exists only academically and it is too simplified, never solve any problem in reality

M means money in circulation. Any money that is put aside as long term saving is not calculated as M. When people start to save money, M in the formula shrink by magnitudes. Another question is which M you are looking at, M0 and M3 are totally different things

V means money flow speed. I could simply transfer the same dollar a million times per second in high-frequency-trading platform, that does not affect anything in economy

Q is GDP, but is Swiss bonds included in Q? In fact lots of today's financial activities are trading foreign capital goods and they are not counted domestically

P is price level. Because Q should include foreign goods, their price are affected by foreign currency exchange rate
2129  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 09, 2015, 09:32:55 AM

If you've discovered this secret why aren't you out there rasing venture capital to start a bank?


This is not a secret, John Law practiced this 300 years ago. Commercial bank do not have right to create money, only central banks can. Just look how FED and other central banks' balance sheet exploded while they acquire large amount of assets since 2008
2130  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 09, 2015, 12:46:08 AM

The one who can issue money, can of course buy up the whole economy in the end.  Whether this is by "backed" money, or "thin air" money doesn't really matter.  The only advantage of "backed" money is that there will always be some finite supply of it, if the backing asset is a collectible, such as land or gold.


My analysis shows that backed money is indeed "out of thin air": As long as you have some spare asset, you can always issue money backed by them to buy more asset, and once you get more asset, you can issue more money, so the quantity of money that you can issue is only limited by the total available asset that you can buy in the whole world

To stop this kind of madness, it should be illegal to issue money backed by assets. If money can only be created by work or paying equal amount of valuables (for example exchange electricity for mining bitcoin), then that money will not create seigniorage

I agree with you 100%.  "Backed" is a word which simply means "I am lying to you".  Even if well intentioned, it is an unverifiable, unstable, and a sure-to-fail situation.  Perhaps we should look to various alt-coin producers who are showing us the truth about this kind of language. 


This trick can even be practiced on gold and I believe that is how those banks accumulated huge amount of gold during a century. But since the amount of gold is limited, once they have bought most of the gold available on market, they could not create more fiat. So they eventually shifted the target to assets, then they could continue with their wealth accumulation at a much faster pace
2131  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Silent War On Bitcoin Has Begun! on: February 09, 2015, 12:05:39 AM
Bitcoin is too small a problem for them right now, their fiat must survive and that is getting more and more difficult as more people are discovering their scam
2132  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Another MtGox happening right now in China! 500 mil.$ lost. Prepare for a crash! on: February 08, 2015, 11:37:16 PM
I'm afraid, these investors have never seen a single satoshi, just like most of the stock traders never get their hands on a stock. That exchange has never owned any serious amount of bitcoin otherwise their wallet will be easily identified. But the clients might have lost that much money just like in a casino  Cool

2133  Economy / Speculation / Re: 100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020? on: February 08, 2015, 10:31:37 AM
I'm afraid by 2020 USD has been replaced by something else, new dollar maybe Cheesy
2134  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 08, 2015, 06:32:22 AM

The one who can issue money, can of course buy up the whole economy in the end.  Whether this is by "backed" money, or "thin air" money doesn't really matter.  The only advantage of "backed" money is that there will always be some finite supply of it, if the backing asset is a collectible, such as land or gold.


My analysis shows that backed money is indeed "out of thin air": As long as you have some spare asset, you can always issue money backed by them to buy more asset, and once you get more asset, you can issue more money, so the quantity of money that you can issue is only limited by the total available asset that you can buy in the whole world

To stop this kind of madness, it should be illegal to issue money backed by assets. If money can only be created by work or paying equal amount of valuables (for example exchange electricity for mining bitcoin), then that money will not create seigniorage
2135  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 08, 2015, 06:21:29 AM

If the state auctions public property (like airwaves) to private enterprise then the money goes to the public coffers.  That money gets spent on public works which is to benefit all constituents of the state.

Gaawd why is it you don't know this?  If you don't like it vote for different representative or move out.  It's that simple

Thanks, I don't even know that I collectively own some airwaves  Cheesy

I pay tax to government, like an expensive insurance, and then what they do with that money is their business, but just don't say that their properties are owned partially by me, I don't even get a dividend on those returns (if there is any)

2136  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 07, 2015, 10:48:30 PM
So bitcoin needs a "made in China" stamp?  ha, makes sense

Strange logic, how did you reach this conclusion? Chinese miners are not cheap anymore
2137  Economy / Economics / Re: What if there never was QE? on: February 07, 2015, 10:21:34 PM
No one in the world is living it large except the 1%. I dont get this naive notion of some nation existing where most people live a semi luxurious life. Most people are struggling and being able to pay holidays is a luxury these days.

This is the most strange thing in the world. In fact, the human productivity has increased at least 10 fold during the latest 10 years, using various high-tech and automation technology. However, majority people's life just improved a little bit or even go backwards and still live in a very tight budget. Where are all those added wealth? They all went into the pocket of money printers
2138  Other / Archival / Re: Pictures of your mining rigs! on: February 07, 2015, 08:56:06 PM
This is where my next mining site will be deployed  Grin

2139  Economy / Economics / Re: Video: Another economic crash is coming. How did this happen? on: February 07, 2015, 08:29:21 PM
A possible road to this collapse is through negative interest. Now some central bank have already lowered the interest to negative territory, discredit their currency, an effort to encourage spending and borrowing. But in fact, the whole country and majority of people are already heavily debt laden and their income is shrinking, they can not take more loans. So this negative interest or money printing will keep going on without any effect, but if it stopped, the whole economy will fall back to recession right away. When the interest reach -5%, it will trigger large wave of withdraw, people prefer to have cash, that will be the bank run day
2140  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: It's raining Bitcoins! on: February 07, 2015, 07:49:05 PM
IBM is going to replace human workers with intelligent machines, and bitcoin will become the currency that machines pay each other
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