Fakhoury.. .you are agreeing with a guy who is attempting to spread FUCD.. in order to inflate some kind of issue that is either non-existent or barely existent, even though a lot of folks want to scream about it in order to attempt to debilitate bitcoin into some kind of play toy of the banksters... make it like paypal or Ethereum that can be changed whenever you like.

Two years ago I would have said no, but I'll go ahead and divulge some information for the hell of it since very few people actually take me seriously enough they won't likely act on my predictions.

That said, I need to preface this with the huge caveat that this should not be taken as sound financial advice. Invest at your own risk and I don't want to hear that anyone has taken out a second mortgage on their house to invest according to my estimates, but I do suppose there's some benefit in sticking my neck out with a prediction in case it does come true. One model predicts $10k by end of 2017, a second model predicted it by sometime in 2019/2020 (before the next halving most likely). The latter of the two models was my first one that I've been starting to think lately is too conservative. It is primarily based on the amount of time between the previous ATHs compared to each other and takes into consideration the magnitude of the price differentials as well. I'm not going to be extremely detailed, but I'll use some numbers to get the gist of it across. Remember that this first one is the model that I think is probably TOO conservative.

First high date: 07-18-2010
First high price: $0.09
First low date: 09-18-2010
First low price: $0.05
Number of days: 61

Previous high date: 06-08-2011
Previous high price: $31
Previous low date: 11-13-2011
Previous low price: $2
Number of days: 159

New high date: 11-30-2013
New high price: $1150
New low date: 1-14-2015
New low price: $160
Number of days: 411

First Time Factor: 159/61 = 2.61
Second Time Factor: 411/159 = 2.58

First Days Low till High: 263 days (09-18-2010 till 06-08-2011)
Second Days Low till High: 749 days (11-13-2011 till 11-30-2013)

Current Low Date: 1-14-2015
Estimated Third Days Low till High: (749/263) * 749 = 2133 days
Date Estimation: 1-14-2015 + 2133 days = 11/16/2020

First Price Factor $0.05 to $31 = 620
Second Price Factor: $2 to over $1k = 500

Current Low Price: $160
Estimated Third Price Factor: (500/620) * 500 = 403
Price Estimation: $160 * 403 = $64,480

If factor of price and time and the trend of those factors continues, that would be a value of ~$65,000 on or about Q4, 2020.

Now, here's why I think this is wrong...

Quarter to Quarter estimation from my raw ratios of the low compared to previous price swings:
Time   Price (High)   Price (Low)
Q1 2015   $317   $150
Q2 2015   $292   $190
Q3 2015   $486   $353
Q4 2015   $417   $340
Q1 2016   $370   $311
Q2 2016   $364   $326
Q3 2016   $356   $340
Q4 2016   $462   $362
Q1 2017   $628   $449
Q2 2017   $920   $628
Q3 2017   $862   $691
Q4 2017   $888   $711

Obscuring other data...

Q3 2020   $9,579   $8,319
Q4 2020   $14,478   $8,299
Q1 2021   $64,480   $14,289

After 2021 the bubble would be popping. At this point nearly every man, woman, and child in first world countries will know about Bitcoin and the subsequent bubbles will no longer be able to be multiple magnitudes more than the previous ones.

I was super-excited to watch the price increase almost exactly according to my numbers in Q3 2015 just as this chart had predicted, however I was not accounting for things like volume, total coin outstanding, and etc. Because of this, I was off on so many levels, but I still consider it a reasonable model, just not one I'd recommend a client use given what I know now. I think my numbers might also be close, but obviously the time-scale of them is "off".

My current model does see increases till ~$900 sometime this July-August and a decrease to low $700s shortly after in early Fall. It will then stay in that range into early 2017 with things picking up again after tax time (April) in 2017. From there it's basically a crazy ride till the end of the year when people take their profits in December over $10k. After that I'm not discussing what I predict and when, but I do think that on long-term scale the prospects are great. Good luck!

I believe in the sanity of chinese miners, if prices are as pleasant as they are right now, i expect them to back down a little cause they know about the devastating PR-effects of such a showdown (including a fork, change of Hash and so on and on). In a way the rise in price keeps the problem at bay cause everybody is happy. At least i hope so.

If we have no external problems and BTC can just hush along as it pleases i expect this rally to be lasting a while. Nevertheless if the blocksize fight escalates again in July it might be the end of this bullish cycle.

I hope that Luke, Adam and Matt will fulfill their promise and deliver the HF code, otherwise we could see some ugly High Noon between chinese miners and Core and you can bet that markets won't like that.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4o2nii/please_bring_a_message_to_those_core_individuals/

Thanks for giving the updates!

I have two models I've been using for my own pricing. Both of them are taking into account not only the magnitude of changes but also time period changes. You can see some of my predictions by going through my post history if any of you are interested.

I don't want to go into too much detail about my current system, but don't you think a price cycle should maybe take into account the following?

• Total Shares Outstanding (or total coin outstanding)
• Market Capitalization
• Volume
• Price
• Time since previous ATH
• Time since previous bottom
• Change in magnitude of recent ATH to previous ATH

That's not to say spacing it out by 900 days is a bad idea, I'm just not sure if that specific trend can continue indefinitely. In fact, while some trends may be visible in hindsight, it might not always equate to a similar scale today. After all, where do you really start and stop? Do you completely ignore the time period before Bitcoin had a "price" of $0.10 as listed on Gox and was instead being sold primarily OTC? What if someone's model of off-chain transactions is better than yours? What about the Winklevoss twins having possibly portioned off most of their shares for ETF underwriting?

I have two models, one of which is eerily close to your 900-day one. I think the one that is not 900 days might be more accurate in the long-term, but it has been interesting watching this thread and how things unfold. Makes me hope I am wrong and the 900-day model is more accurate. If so, then it predicts over $10k by the end of next year which would be huge compared to waiting for 2020.

I'm just using different words to pretty much assert that I agree with you. 

There are so many things "happening" in the bitcoin space, that it is very difficult to even attempt to keep up with following the many things.

Part of the excitement of bitcoin, and so difficult to keep up with so much: "it's happenings"

We went up really fast, and this correction was quite mild.  Leverage longs are still quite high. I might be wrong though.

Alright... sure it may be o.k., and we also know that there is going to be a lot of murkiness with some of these areas, and surely I appreciate various kinds of bitcoin related "innovation" too, because I am also going to want to participate in a large number of ways to hold my coins and to have them available in various ways, including some small device that I can carry around.

Well, I don't know.  I would not want to get into any business that seems to be like printing money, but yeah, of course lines can blur...

It's all still bullish for bitcoin, yet we all need to remember that we gotta be careful in some of the activities that we engage in related to bitcoin, because there are likely going to be a lot of ways that local and national governments attempt to divide and conquer and want to separate us from our lillie friends, aka bitcoins.

News URL : http://www.rlslog.net/bitcoin-for-dummies-p2p/

it is just another paper wallet, no? with fancy design. i don´t see a legal problem there.

I think we might see a second drop tomorrow.

Hahahahahaha


printing bitcoin is likely going to get someone in trouble... but what the fuck do I know?

It's all bullish to see these various kinds of developments, even if some folks get thrown in jail for their "innovations"