If sports betting includes horse and dog racing and all kinds of possible 'sport' in a wide definition then I think the global picture is its a far larger market then casino.   Casino is larger when we include all the card games, all the lottery and off site possible iterations but of the two I will guess sports due all the fans watching.   Neither involves expertise really, the sports bettors most often will bet their own team or some biased view and the casino even card betting wont especially be skilled odds calculated betting, its most all done for fun and a past time hope of riches only in a half serious way.

Ive heard of people of course because quite a few will try to sell their tips but to actually known people to do it I would have to say no.  I think it would take a lot of discipline to do, capital, free time to study all the teams that can be bet and some good knowledge of the underlying dynamics to that sport.  I can imagine someone knowing one sport well, race horses perhaps is possible though I doubt that even but I really doubt anyone can bet all the various types of sports bets and be consistent enough to win regularly. 
  A Big win and 'retire' off it I guess is more probable in my mind.

Nobody has won the Rolex, thats an all time lucky kind of deal higher then a Royal Flush   The odds are beyond even normal lottery type odds, requires alot of luck to win that one.   Its the big prize at the fair shooting range, nobody is actually supposed to win the big prize not any time normally anyhow.  Theres only 1 instance for that outcome vs the many thousands for all the alternatives; compare it to the hourly free roll and its like hundreds of times harder then winning the top prize on that and I've never won that one in years so imo nobody is winning this prize maybe once a decade :p.

DXY dollar index rose 1% today and for trillions of currency worth thats a big move, it would not seem to indicate we reach some break out scenario for BTC in any rush.    I think 20k or above would be a breakout from what price action we've seen most recently, if true that I think implies we require momentum and probably multiple factors like a weaker dollar and wider speculation in markets overall.

The main interest is monetary because even a nomination will secure their next film.  Its not the award by itself per say but the overall ladder up it gives in the wider game, their entire career will be enhanced by this one day they receive this award.  Its hard to do anything wrong after you receive an Oscar, Will Smith smacking someone in the chops doesnt matter as much as he got the award later on; he will be fine because his films win awards so he is set for life and so is everyone on his film set.
  Win an Oscar and you are immortal, be popular in a film 30 years ago and you might still struggle to get a part in an advert when you are old its unfortunate that there are plenty of out of work actors who struggle despite prior success; its not an easy business despite appearances.

Was there any pressure, its been pretty sideways since November.    Here I took a slim slice of the chart that mostly describes price action for that period, only a small part is really missing here as we have maintained quite a restricted range imo


This is daily and we are intersecting with the 50 day average mostly as a consequence of this continual drift and even where we make an attempt upwards or down even then we resolve back to this area once again.  Hence I do not perceive pressure especially more a magnetised area some might say Support but I dont assume that we have to hold here before rising later only that there is not enough of a trend either way to move us off the rocks we have beached upon.

You can already gamble without cash and use tokens of some kind or other.  In theory crypto is the non currency version of gambling because its not officially a currency so it is cashless token exchange of variable worth.   People have been placing arbitrary bets of some kind for years usually its very rich people but it doesnt have to be cash always.   If anything I'd think this was a way to avoid tax not force people into a tax route, governments should be taxing the companies not the people especially imo.

Some good points to revise and respect.   Pretty much all of these deserve reflection, could save thousands in lost efforts for going in the wrong direction etc.   always easier said then done, we do alot of things without consciously thinking but thats why its worth the special effort to avoid common mistakes.  The worst mistakes are the ones we repeat of course.


This one is a big one for me, the amount of time and trouble people put into just beating someone running the same race when you are limiting your vision to another person who in themselves also is just as flawed as yourself.  Its a waste when the real race is vs the larger obstacle, the innate problem in whatever you are combating or competing is the true enemy to defeat if anything the competitors are often closer to companions along the way.  People can become bitter and lost by just fighting people, people are quite limited, they are gone far quicker then the actual larger problem that is to be beaten so in the end being bitter about losing to someone else is a phantom;  it will miss the point of where you actually failed in the larger fight imo.
  I agree with this one alot, people focus too much on just defeating another imperfect person; this is a low bar so be stronger then that.

Two different things, casino is far more immediate bet and pay off and sports is far more involved with endless details and if but maybes to the payoff or not.  Have you considered at all the history to your particular player in that country:

Will they even let Novak Djokovic play and does that mean if he is barred from play you get the money back or lose it.   Does that complication make the bet have really nice odds as normal bets people would bet arent there so its possible very good value bet I wonder ?   Is he vaccinated yet or this argument still in play and supersedes the game and his talent etc.

Gambling is one of those industries that survives wars and recession, its always there with revenue far more consistently then alot of industries.  It has to be stated as a counter cyclical industry I think, the typical example would be an undertakers for a business.   People stop certain things just because its a harder economy, maybe it is surprising because I view gambling as a luxury type past time but probably also true of drinking and all sorts people dont really alter their habits and so its reliable.
  Gambling is not really part of the speculative swings, people gamble no matter what else is occuring.

There will need to be a structural change but electric cars arent in isolation by advancing, theres technology like solar panels also improving greatly in efficiency.   I agree on the way it alters the energy balance, alot of places have no oil but almost everywhere gets some sunlight or wind or hydro power possible so I dont think its too much but it will require investments to be deployed.   
  Most places should benefit, very obviously it will take away some power from the middle east and the reserves they have extracted there very cheaply for so long.   Most people who own a household can operate solar panels, in the end that will mean a benefit for those people to self provide this energy usage.   Also it encourages some management of that energy rather then import and buy endless reserves, its probably a good thing overall.

Lets look have a look at the full spectrum for the last 5 years or so because thats a fair range to consider for the very extremes BTC can reach swing high and low.   I think we will track out the low extremes during 2023 and hopefully beat them, put them to bed and move onto more interesting growth possibilities.  However it might well take the entirety of 2023 to win that fight or it could be brief and done and dusted by end of Jan, I cant be sure;  to end all negative extremes in one month imo sounds like a forest fire type scorched earth type of fight & preferential to a slow drag the entire 12 months.

Take the low of 2020 to the peak of April 2021  and similar, take the high of 2017 down to its low of December 2018; both give us the pricing we are in right now as being a Fibonacci level.   Follow those two paths for a guide upwards or back to retrace the weakness around 10k area, the next lower further down is 13.5k and the next higher up is 20k, roughly the lows since June this year.     We have to see BTC price action prove one of those two directions, we break the ice at 20k and climb back out of this hole or we track the bottom and see 13.5k and do battle there.    Right now BTC is still a ski slope, we have yet to launch and succeed in out flight back up, work to do is still the reasonable conclusion.

Trumps main incentive to run again which I didnt expect him to do originally is to get some kind of immunity as a candidate.   Im not personally thinking he should be prosecuted, its far too close to political suppression of opposition to be safe and its certainly not necessary its more nonsense government wasting time and money as they like to do.
   I dont see him as an actual contender even as he is a strong voice, of course he is but with some votes you must win its coming from people way outside the party the swing voters and just normal people who have zero interest in all the talking points they just want some kind of alteration in direction of the country.  He already served and no longer represents that narrative, I really dont think he will or should win the candidacy but I could be wrong of course.

Regan in the 1980's showed some problems with his speech I think, it might be true (during term served even mid 1980's) he had some effects from this kind of a restriction or decline in the brain that occurs over time.  To what extent it prevents good leadership is highly contestable, its possible for people of all ages to suffer loss in their lung capacity, heart efficiency all kinds of losses occur over a life time and so too the brain is not going to remain unaffected through the years completely.   I really dont think this is enough to discount Biden as reasonable in his job, disagree all you like with his conclusions but overall I dont rate this kind of criticism as valid its just something that captures peoples imaginations as it could be he has no clue at all, it'd make for a funny as hell sketch but as a fully justified view I dont think so.

I wouldnt say that exactly but sometimes there will be better periods of luck, I'm still waiting for my 10x 5000 win day on just a normal set of rolls.  Earlier I used 40 rolls and got no good results especially, all base rewards which cant be called bad just normal luck and nothing specially better unfortunately that is normal.   But Im patient and I have won several Golden tickets in a row previously so cant complain as thats fairly exceptional.   So I've noticed any exceptional difference recently but congrats to those that have been lucky.

I won the FUN price bet, simple enough and the BTC price also ended flat looks like too simple I skipped that one this time.   For Jan I have to wait and see, normal trading begins this week and gives a fair better indictor but Jan can often be a stormy month we'll see.

Just holding BTC and doing nothing with it shouldnt especially be a strategy for a business, Ive never really understood trying to argue in favor of that.   ETH has a system now where retained deposits are part of their confirmation network so the yield makes some sense.    So a bad strategy to retain BTC and let it sit vs actual use, the actual use has paid off is not that surprising.   Plus six months is still a random result not a proper basis to compare two assets.
   The ETH attempt to implement staking could fail we dont know that yet, its far too early to declare victory but generally I do favor the concept of staking because it keeps the entire user base involved.   BTC has long since lost its mining by anyone origins which makes me sad.   All proper capitalist systems are means of production with the people, both routes are arguable I dont believe in BTC only because of that I think the alternatives explored elsewhere are worth doing; some think it only leads to fraud I appreciate creative activity and BTC can always adopt the best measures found.
   Saylor is far too simplistic imo, storing any commodity forever  can easily end up costing you oil, food, gold, anything at all can decay even while being valid products.

Elon bought and promised others the good ownership of a company previously listed at over a trillion, thats alot of money for even the richest man which is why he must liquidate the shares.    He still owns alot of Tesla, more then most CEO I guess.
   In theory he can rebuy the shares as they just got alot cheaper, thats the ideal but sadly his twitter stake is not likely to release any spare capital any time soon I guess but in theory his sale of TSLA shares was entirely sensible; never own just one thing.

I always liked that quote because I think its entirely relevant to the current situation and forthcoming.  We will have greater volatility basically, when they dismiss BTC as never facing hard money I see their point but its also true in the current situation that QE debt cannot withstand that hard money scenario and so it is never likely to occur willingly.  The 1980's peak interest rate scenario reflected in a long term chart such as ^TNX   10 year treasury yields or similar is not going to repeat right now, it would be terminal for entities outside of BTC.    What is far more likely to occur is contained in the foresight of that quote and knowledge of Thomas Jefferson, I dont know the full thought process but gigantic upheaval isnt a new dynamic.  What would happen is the poorest people, those who hold only cash will be crushed, banks or whatever modern equivalent with many assets will profit far more from the destruction of common currency and various negatives they could trade that landscape where as the common worker is likely to suffer most of all.

We wont get proper QT, we'll get a Richter scale extreme of giant peaks and dips far more likely.

Could also just go off the 50 day average which has roughly herded the BTC price action downwards quite consistently.    We do need to fight and confirm each level of support numerous times, I think it becomes increasingly likely we find a bottom as we explore these prices.   I'll stick to what I said in the spring, I think 2019 peak prices is probably very close to where the low is found and it could just be a case of minutes its down there not sure but mostly I think we are in the right area and I'm not that worried after we already sold off this much.
    RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now.  Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world  is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all.  history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.

Significance of the price currently is that we are just below the 23% pullback fib level for low to high range of 2020 selloff onto its initial peak in Spring a year later.   It makes some sense that we have revise such prices to confirm this whole area as long term valid not just part of a bull run where too many speculators have sold off their holdings.
   Its fairly typical that the initial run in any pricing will not hold without a proper test for actual holders over the long term.  Clearly we've found a large difference from those who will buy to speculate and the portion of the market that will trade, use and retain BTC on their balance sheet to any extent.  The most reliable holders are the distributed masses in very small amounts across numerous wallets.