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2161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin still looking bearish during the holidays on: December 31, 2022, 06:49:48 AM
Significance of the price currently is that we are just below the 23% pullback fib level for low to high range of 2020 selloff onto its initial peak in Spring a year later.   It makes some sense that we have revise such prices to confirm this whole area as long term valid not just part of a bull run where too many speculators have sold off their holdings.
   Its fairly typical that the initial run in any pricing will not hold without a proper test for actual holders over the long term.  Clearly we've found a large difference from those who will buy to speculate and the portion of the market that will trade, use and retain BTC on their balance sheet to any extent.  The most reliable holders are the distributed masses in very small amounts across numerous wallets.
2162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin Die or Pump Up in 2023? on: December 30, 2022, 11:59:49 PM
Im tempted to say consolidation for 2023 because its got to be the most likely.  Theres going to be way more detail to it then just that, it wont be flat because it becomes ironic at some point.  BTC at a very stable price would become a useful reference and attract usage just for that reason, of course that positive then alters the price once more so it wont be going just plain sideways it'll waver.   
2163  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: December 30, 2022, 11:55:22 PM
1 GT ticket from 40 spins or so is a good return.   I did a similar amount earlier and got 1x 5000 and 1x 500   rest base reward, so you got me beat on all counts :p       I've locked for a year in the majority but maybe like 50% across the other time frames also, just so its slightly more liquid.  I dont expect to really want to sell before another year has passed, thats my general take on the moves across crypto generally.
2164  Economy / Economics / Re: Distributed power > centralized production & transmission on: December 29, 2022, 11:58:18 PM
The wider point people might be missing in terms of utility to EV is that its very easily a multi purpose vehicle.   So if the market for electric in general is illiquid at any point, it could be useful for every house to have a battery which is something contained in the EV that is not true of any other product around a normal household.    
   EV could be used as arbitrage daily between peak pricing to electric free markets and the off peak pricing.  Wind power for example is either used or wasted, to store that energy is a premium activity.   So too the same can be said of hydro power, only a few types of power station can provide instant power on demand for peak or sudden spikes in demand.
   The modern alternative to centralized production of electricity by power stations might be a nation distributed in its capacity to supply power.  Modern housing can feed power from solar panels back into the grid, this is acknowledged whats missing is that EV also can provide power to grid and this is known and available tech however its not yet common.   A rising trend can justify and back the increasing usage of EV imo, if it represents any kind of improvement to efficiency or liquidity.
2165  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BANKMAN-FRIED PANIC GAMBLES TO REPAY DEBT on: December 29, 2022, 11:49:14 PM
Quote
laughing during the interview

I think he is probably taking drugs by that point, did he get paid for the interview or I wonder what was the point especially.   PR attempts when its possible fraud charges on that scale seems pointless, he might as well wait for the legal sparring between his council and opposing to start to find out his future destination.    Most likely I suppose is he really is that arrogant to believe its a case of talking his way out of it, a compulsive liar, delusional for many years something ego driven I guess being very rich can result in dangerous levels of self confidence.
2166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin survived the Christmas market pressure on: December 29, 2022, 10:29:29 PM
Dont worry about Xmas pressure , think about the 50 day average, its capped the recent peaks once again; twice this is occurring in the last couple weeks.



Continuing to act negatively vs basic momentum like this could lead to wider selling from various sectors of the market.  ie. we form a negative trend rather then trying to fight upwards as BTC often does.
   All we can say slightly different is that 50 days will start to include the recovery post FTX (exclusively) and so we can observe the blue line for 50 day MA is moving slightly up there.  If that continues that the average is positive, maybe pressure is relieved from BTC price action.
2167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop the panic, I doubt we will see 14k or less Bitcoin on: December 29, 2022, 06:27:15 PM
Decent hold of the 16.5k aree recently, its respected volume in that area and we retain a series of rising lows since the first FTX news broke our prior hope of recovery in the price action.   I dont presently disagree with OP that we will explore the full range from 20k all the way down to 10k possibly, however there is a BIG IF to that in the detail matters of how we trade those prices.   A spike down to 10k that quickly fails to hold and launches back up is bullish, it will scare but in fact be bullish.  Right now we retain a positive trend over weeks.
2168  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: December 29, 2022, 03:15:50 PM
4 bets is a second is a ping time of 250ms and a few times people will lack a connection with perfect integrity and latency so yea that is pushing it slightly.  I can imagine errors occurring if there's any upset over wifi or some mobile signals that can occur more often then a fixed connection over purely copper or fibre optic.
  I also much prefer to use more then one browser, it comes in useful.   Opera browser is setup to serve gaming, try that one.  Also just the simple fact you are not using your main browser with all the dozens of extensions possibly slowing it down and the graphical render even, this may help.   At least give it a test, a backup browser is probably a positive.
2169  Economy / Speculation / Re: pricing is not an event, it's a process. on: December 28, 2022, 11:58:32 PM
The bottom pricing is a process not an event is the phrase Ive heard a dozen or more times.   I think that is correct and we have further to go yet imo, if Im forced to think purely pricing then I will say a full exploration of the peak pricing end of 2017 and also that area that reaches down to peak 2019 prices.    Mostly I think if we went sideways for some months it would amount to the same thing in the end.
  Price every day is a requirement, people want to sell and some want to buy and sell goods and exchange the market has an important job to provide fairness to all people as much as possible.  Market confidence to exchange freely is the most important thing of all, if we are required to trudge through all these teen prices then grin and bear it.  The daily price is still less important then wider time frames like weekly, monthly and our gains or losses quarter to quarter of the year.
  BTC has the stride of a monolith its far beyond our daily worries is my take, I think we continue to be fine but price stability comes from confirmation and consolidation or volume foundation in this area, it must be built and all prices confirmed so later we can gain; this is the costed work of a free market to do so Smiley
2170  Economy / Gambling / Re: Freebitco.in - FUN Token Investment Experiment on: December 28, 2022, 11:48:56 PM
I dont see how it wouldnt give a positive yield, its a payback for holding your value in that enterprise.   The main risk is really BTC or crypto generally, this is specific but its also true that BTC by itself has no yield so this is payment for that investment risk where as BTC gains are commodity speculation as I see it.   10.9% is quite feasible, tbh I think thats probably fair for the company and my guess is they are ok with that long term as gambling is a sector with a higher margin then others.
  How do you feel about the results, as expected ?  Its nice to see someone collate it all, I only summed up an estimate in my head tbh.
2171  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. National Debt Ceiling on: December 28, 2022, 11:01:40 PM
I'd rate it as a natural problem not subject to limits to what people believe in or not.  There is giant bias to Dollar but that was also true of Sterling previously and other currencies, they have come and gone.   If dollar its not useful to the world it will pass, economics is superior to politics in study because its true regardless of opinion.

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US can just decide to print more bank notes and clear her debts most especially the internal debts, except there is a legislation that prohibits her to do so.

Laws really arent the limitation, plenty of countries have printed to excess and suffered from it.  It would not be any different here but US is the global reserve currency, when its printed all countries suffer secondary inflation.  Only a few nations can raise all prices to account for the loss of value, only a few can make that demand vs all others and have their goods bought at that higher nominal price. 
   I think there is a limit, a breaking point and its not about a law to raise a ceiling if anything thats the safety limit.

2172  Other / Archival / Re: 2022 was the second worst year for Bitcoin on: December 27, 2022, 02:33:54 PM
Second best year if you now replacing BTC at the lower price I guess.   Depends how people look at it, as a cheaper purchase price or a weaker price to sell at.   Nobody is suddenly deciding to sell after these months hopefully, now is the time to save at least a little for the future.   I only sell in hype periods when people are getting a bit silly, all the time up or down BTC is plodding along wondering what all the fuss is about.
   All I mean to say overall is price is not a determination of success, it shows buyer vs sellers on the orders and even with that its fixed to current time rather then long term actual accuracy.   We get a heck alot of variance and inaccuracy, dont take it all as deadly seriously correct.
2173  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: If your friend would tell you this... on: December 26, 2022, 11:58:53 PM
Too much pressure, right from the start I feel obliged in some way to my performance not open ready relaxed, free and easy.     I feel I would lose under such a weight to perform, ironically and ideally you wouldnt give a dam because then I think people would be more lucky if trying to win consistently without being scared to play or lose.
   Its a bad idea, I know hypothetical but play for yourself imo this only how you lose a friend in my experience.
2174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Cathie wood says 1 btc $1m by 2030 how possible? on: December 26, 2022, 11:53:09 PM
It could be priced at a million by next year, we dont need next decade even as any price is possible.   The main point to take away about price instability is it actually causes a large amount of damage, prices are not the finish line or the prize in an economy you want actual useful business and a society that benefits from that useful performance of a working efficient economy.   Fast prices just means we are slipping and inaccurate in our description and assurance of prices, this is a 'disorderly market' as the FED would put it.   
  1m of 2030 wont be the 1m you see in 2022, it means the currency has likely failed.   Even 7% loss per year of value results in half gone after a decade, thats a leaky bucket and it will disrupt companies, markets & losing jobs.   Not quite the positive it appears imo
   
2175  Economy / Economics / Re: The fight over electric car batteries on: December 26, 2022, 11:41:50 PM
Sounds like Lithium would be similar to the case 'rare' earths are really just a big pain to consolidate and make usable not quite so rare as that.   Tanzania did something similar to Zimbabwe but with gold where they demand involvement in post process after mining, their argument with the worlds largest miner took years but with such profits available they can demand the exact conduct of business performed in their country.
   We are hearing lots of details but all of this adds up to one thing for me in that commodities will boom over the next decade and beyond, such is their vital part in the economy and demand far outweighs any currency standard or cost vs their elemental utility.

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an average car has a 75kwh battery

That might be twice what they need, depends on the market but a light small car could be a third of that size and usable in a city easily.   We will see refinement and improvements to EV standards.
2176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin cycles, this is the cyclical minimum on: December 26, 2022, 11:30:38 PM
No price will move in isolation, we already acknowledge inflation is a common debasement of price accuracy.   Part of any BTC gain is this loss by other currencies, at some points in the cycle BTC makes far more sense to hold then Dollar or some other very risky currency even while BTC can go down it sometime on average realize quite reliable gains.   Long term we all know BTC has been far more able then almost anyone predicted.
  BTC at any six figures number will only be in a world that has changed and each cycle of BTC it doesnt seem able to go back fully because of this loss in value for other currencies.   My take on the last five years is currency lost half its value (apparent or not they cannot reverse back so it is lost), the central banks threaten to raise the cost of money but it would drive the fiscal budget to ruin if debt was properly serviced with rates above inflation, that doesnt happen what happens is constant prices rising including the use of BTC.
2177  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's on! 2024 US Presidential Election Biden+Harris Vs Trump Bitcoin betting.... on: December 26, 2022, 10:39:00 PM
Unless Trump commands 500 to 1 odds like he did originally I think this ship has sailed.  Not especially worth betting at this early stage, unless you got some god like insight similar to the genius required on the last unbelievable run-up.
  Im inspired to quote Mark Twain, “The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.”    So maybe the fellow from Florida pulls off an unlikely win but I dont think Trump makes the ticket really and definitely not feeling a win this time.  Last time people did warn he had surprising consensus support which could easily be enough and it was.
2178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin survived the Christmas market pressure on: December 26, 2022, 10:23:31 PM
I dont see late December as a time full of pressure, I think its lower volume or thats my perception.    In theory April should create more pressure maybe as end of financial year across the globe but mostly BTC keeps its own time much to the frustration of many.
   We need to at least pass 17k now which will be the bottom rung to reclimb the mid December peak pricing, there is still an idea of higher lows over weeks but its quite weak.
2179  Economy / Economics / Re: Investing against 2024 on: December 26, 2022, 08:03:22 PM
2024 would be a total guess, I would rather presume we are suppressed in price until 2024 maybe even a year past that.   Then after we find some accumulative effect or combustion in BTC that leads to gains but  its better not to expect ro rely on such rises.   At present theres no excuse to think so, I think 2023 is challenged.
2180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin cycles, this is the cyclical minimum on: December 26, 2022, 10:48:59 AM
Time is a correction as well as price, if anything I think the time element is more important then the price objective people might have.   The dollar price is not a fixed worth, every year the dollar itself has varied and usually on average there is value lost from dollar worth and costs of basic goods rise.    So its quite clear even if the price was steady the value would be altering and correcting over time.
  The cycle peak and low will take time to turn over, usually its when all have lost patience it starts over.   Im going to think of it as something like a camshaft or engine cyclinder cycle, lots of variables but the exhaust vs combustion stage is what I find comparable to how we process price over time.
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