I like this post better than most, because you've actually put something in writing that doesn't sneer at the forum in general.

Okay, I'll bite - I already posted my analysis. I say we have until August. If we're above 5 bucks, I think your analysis will be invalidated. Time will tell...

Agreed.

I'm with bitcoin until the very end. Whether that means it withering to two nodes or blossoming to millions.

Client usability can be improved, and I'm sure it will. Mobile phone apps will be improved as well, providing ease-of-use for the bitcoin network. All of these things can be done, not sure why it is expected immediately. Anything worthwhile takes effort and time.

Thanks for the responses.

My main point here is we should know by the end of August if we're a 'bubble' or not. I don't think we are, only because of the recent price behavior from the high. If it was going to pop, it would've done so by now - not in a months time. So basically, if we're trading above 5 bucks by the end of August, I want all the naysayers to have a hearty dinner of humble pie, followed by their delicious silence.

We shall see...

Sorry jackwagon, I already have my strategy in place to deal with a potential speculative mania scenario.

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26117.0

You might want to read that - it is quite informative. I'm prepared for both eventualities, massive gains or complete loss.

Are you?

Every movement upward or down, there is the same question that is reverberated in these forums and elsewhere. "Is Bitcoin a Bubble?". Rather than type a cursory sentence or two refuting the whole concept, I took it upon myself to gather the 'evidence' from prior bubbles to see if we were in fact repeating history. Many sensational claims have been made, and I believe that the emotion involved has allowed the facts to be obscured to the point that no one really has a good definition of what a bubble is.

Allow me to provide some examples, gathered from some graphs that have been helpfully posted on the web. As a general rule, a bubble can be defined as part psychological, where people become so rapt with the promise of future gains they throw all caution to the wind; To the literal interpretation of charts, a peak of such-and-such value is what infers the later collapse of speculative frenzy.

For instance, take a look at this chart of the South Sea Trading Company.



Here we see the issuance of new shares or 'subscriptions' that take the speculation to new heights before crashing back to prior values.

As a rule of thumb, a bubble can be defined as a surge in price that takes an equal amount of time to subside, sometimes shorter - but never longer than the original buildup in price.

Looking at the chart prior, and to the latest chart at: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD

I can make the following assertions: If we align the rise in price from the south sea chart to the bitcoin one, I'd start comparing bitcoin from April to present day. IF... and I do mean "IF" bitcoin is a bubble, this means that the runup from April to the mid-June high of 30+ will subside to previous levels by the last day in August.

That is -- IF it is a bubble at all, which I personally think it isn't.

Take a look at this chart:



Ah yes, the oft-quoted tulip-mania. When a man's servant ate what he mistook to be an onion for his supper, putting out his master to a great degree (thousands upon thousands of gilders) he barely escaped with his life. Such a meal! I hope it was worth it

Here we see a rather exponential curve that culminates in a nasty crash, not following the symmetrical pattern we discussed before. If we were to equate this with the same starting point of April in the bitcoin chart, that would mean a nearly exponential rise for the next two years (2013), followed by a crash to the starting point of this year.

Another example is the classic "Dot-Com" bubble. As shown by the chart here:


Six years up, only four years down from the peak before it hit the same level. So - you must be asking yourself, "Is bitcoin a bubble?". Well, here's the answer - I don't personally think so, but let's go with the charts. If bitcoin is a bubble, then it will follow the same pattern as other bubbles, more or less. That means a minimum growth period of two years (possibly longer) to the same amount of decline after.

In support of this theory, a few projections and examples:






So, there you have it. I'd like this thread to be the focal point of any further 'bubble' accusations and discussion. What the hell - at least the worst case is you have two years to get your bids in and run with it. Again, personally, I don't think we will mirror this example.

I'm interested to hear what you think.

LOL Lardycake. Even a spinning pissing drunk will hit a urinal once in a while. Guess if you piss long enough... Or is it drink long enough. No matter, what comes out is the same as your posts anyway.

Hey now, the human brain can rebound from many things. Don't sell yourself short.

The risk *is* the potential for everything you listed above. Want to know what balances I have in any of the active exchanges? Zero. I do a transfer, make my trade, and transfer out. My personal risk is something happening in the interim, and I fully acknowledge it.

I treat every service this way, because it is the only way to sanely operate when you have an emerging market situation, like we do here. Whether the 'root cause' is technical problems, outright stealing or an elaborate con, the end result is the same. You took a risk, and lost.

I don't intend to lose any more than I'm willing to risk, hence my strategy. That is what I meant by life not being fair.

Posting endless threads about it won't get your money back.

Luckily most forums don't represent the community-at-large. I'd never be so vain to consider otherwise. I'm sure there are plenty of people involved in bitcoin who don't have to suffer through these threads.

I'd say that the meager handful of people who understand this system and actively participate in it so far are a long way from "the general public". As many others have said, the client isn't totally up to par for joe sixpack to get in on the benefits. It will eventually, but not just yet.

And yes, if you are unable to understand counterparty risk inherent in emerging markets, you're better off playing in another sandbox until this thing comes out of early beta.

Just as proof that we can take alternate opinions here, I'd like to say I can appreciate your stance - but I disagree with you. At least you took time to document your position, which I respect, instead of the usual doomsday claptrap we have on this forum.

It is foretold that the hash containing three sets of '666' will be the undoing of all corporeal reality on this planet.

*CUE DOOMSDAY MUSIC - ROLL APPEAL FOR DONATIONS*

True, a monster truck rally with flaming bitcoin jump hoops would certainly draw the crowds. Or perhaps 'Bitcoin Aid' concert to end hunger in Africa, all paid for via bitcoins, of course. I mean, you could probably write a long dissertation within economic circles about bitcoin, but then all of your peers would have to put down their models and bits of logistic fantasy to actively participate.

I just don't see that happening, you can't 'predict' (or pretend to, as is usually the case) in economics if you aren't futzing with a model that gives answers that are 'revised' later. That's a lot of looking-over-your-shoulder work there, and it doesn't come easy!

Dude, super classy. I really can't think of a better way to display your intellectual skill than those two lines. Do you think one of the swank smithsonian museums will bid for your forum masterpiece? Perhaps they'll enshrine it in plexiglass with a small placard that reads:

"While the advancement of communications helped mankind globally, there were always the determined few set on taking a large steaming dump on it."

Man, take it easy on yourself there... I'm sure not everyone hates you.

Hey man, I need to learn your scamming techniques - is it a mish-mash of urban lingo and family issues? Or just the good 'ol Paypal chargeback scam?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Stay classy!

Edit: You know, I was being sarcastic. Also, I'd like to add that foodstamp is a douchebag. And you guys posting 'donation' addresses? The internet has a long memory - you may regret participating in this choads scam-bait.

Thanks for the link, didn't read that until now - and found it hilarious

"PARSNIP PARITY ACHIEVED"

Happy Exploding Government Debt Day!