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I think the data points are too still too few to say we have a volatility problem.
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I just noticed nobody posted this beautiful green candle yet   The market moved like 8% in one day, and I am feeling like:  I have to admit though that taking a bit of profit at $25 helped alleviate some nervousness I was starting to get at that point. Taking 10% profit after doubling your investment seemed like a wise idea, and I don't really regret it. I have said this for quite some time. If the traders inside us could be a bit rational and execute our stop loss orders with ruthlessness and indifference, the bulls in this thread alone could probably spare enough profits to save the bitcoin price from falling were it ever to come to $2 again, there is no flash crash here in the bitcoin market despite what some "doom and gloom" bears would like you to believe, you would always have enough time to get your fiats out if you really WANT TO, so why fear? |
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For the record, here is the trade that broke it: {"date":1362012123,"price":"31.9099","amount":"1","price_int":"3190990","amount_int":"100000000","tid":"1362012123917624","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},{"date":1362012124,"price":"31.9099","amount":"0.00019974","price_int":"3190990","amount_int":"19974","tid":"1362012124220533","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},{"date":1362012133,"price":"31.90998","amount":"1.0646","price_int":"3190998","amount_int":"106460000","tid":"1362012133549205","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},{"date":1362012147,"price":"31.91","amount":"20","price_int":"3191000","amount_int":"2000000000","tid":"1362012147416084","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},{"date":1362012147,"price":"31.91","amount":"9.28879034","price_int":"3191000","amount_int":"928879034","tid":"1362012147530876","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"}, see here: https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades |
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it is difficult to predict timings, but in terms of price, I predict bitcoin will have exceeded 32 $ within the next 12 months.
What are you basing this prediction on? wave 1 + fibo Not impressed. This call also materialized. I want to say thank you S3052, although I still could not forget about the days before the 2011 double bottom, but without your advice I probably would not have bought so many bitcoins during the downtrend and the bottom.  |
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Question: where do you think would be the support levels, in all scenarios? Thanks.
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Let me see if I can get it right, Adam:"Oh, I lost the bet, fuck it was so close!  Adding insult to the injury is that I panic sold at $25.5, now all my play money is gone! Bitcoin, why are you so cruel to me?  Wait for it, I still get some bitcoins in my paper wallet right?  So maybe someday the price will go to $1000/BTC  then I will be.......RICH!!!  YAY!! Fuck that bet, I am gonna turn bullish and scream 'BUY! BUY! BUY!' from now on!  " |
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If I were Bit_happy, I wouldn't post anything else for a couple of years... Yep, time to go hang out with Nagle and Edward50 - have fun! OMG, Edward 50. i'd forgotten about that idiot. did i have plenty of flame wars with him. I did my best to resist talking to him, but I am a fan of your work. It's one thing to be wrong, but to be self righteous and indignant about people not listening to your predictions of doom and failure is the height of hilarity. It adds to that hilarity when you heard them saying" I don't want people to lose their money so that's why I'm here", in all seriousness. |
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Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.
I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.
He doesn't talk trash? "Checkmate, bulls?" Glad we're all on the same side in the end. That's what I would call overexcitement, trash is when you say something which you don't even care to back up. Yup, as we all know, bitcoin is a Go game, there is no such thing as a "checkmate" even if the downtrend were confirmed. |
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Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.
I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.
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I pulled some random numbers out of my ass and drafted up a theory yesterday: when we broke $20, the market was in a state of indecision and lost its pace, it rammed directly into the $21 territory, all the way up to the $21.43, and then crashed back to $18 before bounced back. So if past could tell anything about the future, when we broke $30, the market will repeat the same pattern. Turns out that a prediction coming from reading tea leaves is not always too far off. Now the serious part: Bears would want to seize the opportunity of $32 as much as bulls, if they manage to halt bulls' advance at exactly this point, things would not work out well in bulls' favor, the hype which is supposed to be generated by "Bitcoin breaking all-time high" will turn into doom and gloom with "Bitcoin failed at $32 and crashed again", at least that's what bears have in mind I believe. For the record. What about the record? You predicted that either it will correct around $30 and then advance, or it will correct at $32 and reverse. I, OTOH, am on the record predicting that it will, quite simply, go up. No, i was talking about the first half, besides, I didn't claim to predict anything, just to show people the surprising similarity between the two dumps, and that the dump was much fuss over nothing. |
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Oakpacific the Great, Lord Protector of all hash functions. It's my magic that keeps them from getting broken!
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I pulled some random numbers out of my ass and drafted up a theory yesterday: when we broke $20, the market was in a state of indecision and lost its pace, it rammed directly into the $21 territory, all the way up to the $21.43, and then crashed back to $18 before bounced back. So if past could tell anything about the future, when we broke $30, the market will repeat the same pattern. Turns out that a prediction coming from reading tea leaves is not always too far off. Now the serious part: Bears would want to seize the opportunity of $32 as much as bulls, if they manage to halt bulls' advance at exactly this point, things would not work out well in bulls' favor, the hype which is supposed to be generated by "Bitcoin breaking all-time high" will turn into doom and gloom with "Bitcoin failed at $32 and crashed again", at least that's what bears have in mind I believe. For the record. |
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I think if we could stay in the $35-$40 range for a month or so, people may forget about that 2011 bubble thing, it means nothing to the newcomers, it's just some of the early adopters' oh-so-precious memory.
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The memebership card was once sold for only $4200....  |
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Let's make it even simpler. How many of you have ever felt betrayed by a brother, sister, or even parent?
Ripple doesn't make anyone more or less trustworthy. One of its primary functions is to level the playing field currently dominated by banks. What Ripple does in terms of evaluating trust is offer a transparent record that is resistant to manipulation. It creates an environment where there is a strong incentive to be responsible. Avoid knee-jerk reactions that attack, ask questions to learn Well, just one simple question, how do I figure out my level of trust of Carol if, let's say, my level of trust of Bob is 50, and Bob's level of trust of Carol is 50, yet I don't know anything about Carol at all? If I can only issue and receive IOUs from people I personally know, then perhaps I don't need Ripple IOUs at all, as we can already do things with pen and paper, and they are actually more versatile in this aspect. Bob can exhange the Carol IOUs to Bob IOUs (Ripple should do this automagically). That's how carol can give you money without you needing to trust her directly. The resulting effect will be that Bob owns some Carol IOUs and you own some Bob IOUs. Noone trust constraint were violated and all is fine. Above is how it could work in a "personal banking" environment. Currently ripple devs seem keen to point out that it would make more sense if everyone just trusted bitstamp and/or weexchange. What do you mean by "automagically"? In what way is it automatic/automagic? Do I need to get Bob's explicit, informed approval when I lend money to Carol? And what would happen if Carol defaults? Thanks. By "automagically" I mean that ripple searches for "trust paths" to make Carols payment happen. In this case the path involves Bob. I'm no expert on ripple, but the way I understand it explicit approval from Bob is not needed. He implicitly agrees to this by trusting Carol. In case of a Carol default, you still own Bobs IOUs, he has to deal with the Carol default, because he owns her debt. Can you get more than one intermediary in the path? And can you not later invalidate a payment which you implicitly approved? If that's the case I strongly suspect the robustness of such a system, e.g., if someone happens to be the junction point of a lot of trust paths, and suddenly accumulating a large amount of IOUs without his knowledge(it could happen if the nodes next to you happen to be a little bit better connected than average, and so are their extended ones, and so forth), his default could cause huge problems. Of course allow the setting of a threshold debt value could be very helpful, but a robust network should in the first place be designed to avoid single points of failure/negligence. Besides, I don't think such IOUs are as versatile as their real world counterpart, with which you can specify under what conditions/when the debt is to be repaid, and under what conditions the repayment could be delayed, which are all legally enforceable. |
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Let's make it even simpler. How many of you have ever felt betrayed by a brother, sister, or even parent?
Ripple doesn't make anyone more or less trustworthy. One of its primary functions is to level the playing field currently dominated by banks. What Ripple does in terms of evaluating trust is offer a transparent record that is resistant to manipulation. It creates an environment where there is a strong incentive to be responsible. Avoid knee-jerk reactions that attack, ask questions to learn Well, just one simple question, how do I figure out my level of trust of Carol if, let's say, my level of trust of Bob is 50, and Bob's level of trust of Carol is 50, yet I don't know anything about Carol at all? If I can only issue and receive IOUs from people I personally know, then perhaps I don't need Ripple IOUs at all, as we can already do things with pen and paper, and they are actually more versatile in this aspect. Bob can exhange the Carol IOUs to Bob IOUs (Ripple should do this automagically). That's how carol can give you money without you needing to trust her directly. The resulting effect will be that Bob owns some Carol IOUs and you own some Bob IOUs. Noone trust constraint were violated and all is fine. Above is how it could work in a "personal banking" environment. Currently ripple devs seem keen to point out that it would make more sense if everyone just trusted bitstamp and/or weexchange. What do you mean by "automagically"? In what way is it automatic/automagic? Do I need to get Bob's explicit, informed approval when I lend money to Carol? And what would happen if Carol defaults? Thanks. |
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If we could get the DOW to rally 150% in just two months, human beings would perhaps have already landed on some planets near Alpha Centauri. or US stock market is the world wide best performing market like Zimbabwe stock market was in 2008 Haha. You fucking nailed it. The interesting thing is, bitcoin market seems to be much more liquid than the stock markets of quite a few sovereign nations. |
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To believe Loaded or Adam? That's the question. |
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