right now cointerra seems more promising to me, but I don't mind having this GB buying
another hashfast. Especially since we have enough funds to buy one right now, and for cointerra
it's not clear when and if we'll be able to buy it.


Personally I might join another GB for cointerra or even xcrowd in this case.

Hey, gamblers,

I've got a new "strategy" for you, that's similar to martingale but that's gonna last you much longer.

Similar because each win makes up for all the previous losses.
Here's how it goes.

You always bet the same amount, but you change the multiplier.
Say you bet 1btc on 2x.
If you lose, bet 1btc on 3x.
if lose, 1btc of 4x, and so on.
If win, you go back to 2x.
(The amount you bet never changes.)
Each time you win, you balance is 1 btc up from your previous win.

here are a few examples:

Don't mind non-integer multipliers, that's how JD rounds up.

The probability of having n losses in a row would be  1/(n+1)  for 0 house edge,
and is very close for the 1% one. This should help you set your initial bet.

Anyway, if your capital is C, for a martingale you need log C losses in a row to go broke,
whereas for this "strategy" you need C losses in a row to go broke.

So you can have fun much longer. And betting 1 btc  on 40x is no less thrilling than betting 40 btc on 2x

enjoy!


PS  a gentle reminder: every gambling strategy is a losing strategy

My deposit address is the same as the sending address ( 15Y7LZyDdtYhZuRzCDSLfmZNN49HHbB8kG  )

I suppose you can use that as a default for everyone (not my address but their sending addresses ).

btw, do you need to use dropbox? is it not possible to just use the forums?
I don't really mind, I just don't normally use dropbox

just pointing out that now it's unclear whether this GB is open or closed:
...

It seems quite likely that newer 28nm products like cointerra will be useful for a longer
period of time and so will bring more BTC longer term.

I don't think martingale players are stupid. They probably select the parameters
so that they are highly unlikely to go bust in one night.
But then they just can't help repeating it the next night/weekend.

As for this being a pecularity of bitcoin players, my guess is that it's not about
bitcoin, but about the flexibility of bet sizes. You can't play with a fraction of a cent
in a casino, and in the places where you can do that you can't put 10000 USD on the same
table.

so are you going to keep this open to order several more TH from xcrowd and cointerra?
if so I'd put more coin here rather than joining another group buy

sorry I'm not getting it. Who's Nasser?

basically subj. I've got a BFL single on hold at customs because it's "missing some documents  (invoice or customs documents)," and I don't know what to do and whom to contact. Of course I contacted BFL but
of course I'm not getting a fast reaction.

did this happen to you? what did you do?

a playful whale can still destroy this in just 10 bets.

yep. BTC seems surprisingly stable recently but still nothing to rely on,  so some provisions are necessary.

just sent the payment of 3.1 BTC for my 2 shares to the escrow.
Tx id  49c7b323267b0f5b414b10defcefa8eb9c1fe29717ac41ea090d8665a1959fac

gonna PM John about it

max profit >500 BTC.

brace for SD whales coming over.

Or may be someone has to tell them first...

looks good.

I'd like to reserve 2 shares.

But please comment on one thing firsT: what happens if the BTC/USD rate change significantly
by the time you have to order the device? As far as I understand, they are priced in USD.

A question about BTC price changes.

AFAIR, HashFast chips and devices are priced in USD, so if BTC
price rises, then you'll be able to buy more hashpower.
Will the Megahash per share ration rise in this case or shall it stay fixed?

Actually, it is important when it ships.
Some of the first customers that ordered BFL  asics hoped to receive them
while block reward would sill be at  50 BTC.  Now it's 25, and it's not gonna stay 25 forever either,
alghough it's quite likely that at the time of the next halving all currently used asics will be not worth the electricity they consume.

right now it seems the wisest thing to do is to wait for a few days or a week
and see the new options that are coming. It's quite possible that the new
offers will make existing providers lower their prices as well.

I doubt it.  Imagine the house edge was 90% instead of 1%. Would you thus be able
to turn an arbitrarily unfair game into a fair one?
I guess the limit depends on the initial house edge and is strictly positive.

If someone wants to work  it out, better first find out the optimal proportion
to break your capital into two bets. Then extend this to n bets; then take the limit n to infinity.
It may be a nice exercise in calculus.

by the way, while doing one martingale sequence is better than doing a single bet, doing
many martingale sequences is strictly worse than doing one. And this - "grinding the martingale" -
is what our players seem to most enjoy doing.
Of course, saying "it's more rational to bet just once" is just as useless as saying "it's more rational
not to bet at all," since it doesn't take into account the "fun" part.

A sad fact: more rational = less fun.

cointerra also want to make a single chip > 500 gh

I can't say much more about their ability to do that  than "they look serious,"
but I wouldn't dismiss a venture based on technical considerations unless I
felt  I was technically on par with the people who run it. In other words: may be they know how to do it?

sent 5BTC
98827fab15818e0fdbe3cb69799eb9df9646c1807c4e6061644985b88148a1e5

edit: I'd consider investing more for hashfast and cointerra units