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221  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: September 23, 2022, 01:35:49 PM
Mane performance on Bayern actually isn't so bad because he can able to score goals several times although not for each matches but at least he can adapt quickly but the most problem is people always be comparing him to Lewandowski so this is the biggest problem for him because during his career Mane was never became an top scores in the different league because his is more likely not the finisher and about his arrival to Bayern i think it's not Nagelsmann fault only because this also Mane fault when he made decision moved to Bayern Mane has just made a mistakes to his career

It's too early to say that Mane's move was a mistake. Firstly, I see that many analysts have complaints about Nagelsman, and this is logical - if a team plays according to a scheme that does not correspond to the current line-up, then this is not the fault of the players in not the best results. Secondly, not so many matches have been played to talk about some kind of pattern - perhaps in the next games Mane will score a lot of goals and, as a result, his average performance will be higher than that of Lewandowski.
222  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When betting becomes to high on: September 22, 2022, 07:03:00 PM
^

You are absolutely right. Mortgage loans not only make families stronger but also make people think about increasing their income. I personally know several people who have taken out mortgages and made significant strides that they would not likely have made if they had not pursued a better life. I also have acquaintances who have a parent's home and in the last 10 years they have accomplished nothing as they spend their money on useless things.

As you already understood, I am one of those who tries to see both sides of the coin. In general, living a quiet 10 years and spending money on nonsense is not so bad. I think as a person from the same country from which I am, you will understand me.

It's all about the mindset, really.

Most people are afraid to take a leap of faith because they have hard-wired their brain to think that all they can ever achieve is their current state, and that they do not have anything further to achieve. Those who take out loans and establish businesses are the ones who are successful because they have a clear path that they want to walk on, no matter how rough the road is. Well there are also daredevils that take out a loan and bet it on gambling, and you know what happens next to these guys Cheesy

Yes, the problem of gamblers is that very rarely one of them has a real goal and is ready to stop - even if he was lucky and was able to double or ten times the borrowed money, he still continues to play until he loses completely. In the case of business, everything happens adequately - even the endless expansion of the business is more justified than the endless gambling.
223  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How much money do you leave in crypto casino? on: September 22, 2022, 06:54:01 PM
Since most of the crypto casino nowadays offers free withdrawal fee on most of the cryptocurrency sometimes immediate withdrawal after the game is very convenient now but for players like me that usually play on irregular basis, I really want to leave my balance on the casino so that I can play immediately whenever I like.

I only leave money on casino balance if it’s less than 1000$ or less but this is only applicable on casino that I used for more than a year.

What about you guys? Do you leave your balance in your casino balance or you withdraw immediately regardless of the reputation of the casino?

I do not see any problems in leaving any amount on the casino balance. I only play in those casinos that I trust completely, so I am ready to bear such a risk (since I consider it very small). Also, I'm playing for little money so the risk is really low anyway. In the event that I win a large amount of money, at least 100k dollars, then of course I will withdraw a significant part of the winnings immediately. Including because to protect yourself from the temptation to continue the game, haha.
224  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: September 22, 2022, 06:49:19 PM
To my surprise bookies rate PSG as the second top contender to win the Champions League with 5.55 odds (Manchester City are the top contender with 2.85 odds). It seems to me that making predictions (or betting) in a tournament where there are elimination games is a rather pointless exercise, but the odds of the bookmakers show that most specialists rate PSG very highly. Although, on the other hand, Barcelona, which has not yet proved its strength with strong opponents, is estimated not much worse - 11.80.

Might even be surprising to you to learn that City, Bayern and PSG have been the top 3 favourites in the past 3 editions of Champions League, leaving out Real Madrid every season despite them appearing and winning in finals. Liverpool I always feel are rightly below top 3, despite also making 3/5 finals.

Now I understand that's because Bayern and PSG don't have good domestic competition, so bookies probably account for them being fresher in Europe, but City? Squad depth? Mega team?

If we've learnt anything from the past 5 season: don't bet on the top 3 favs.

Another factor due to which bookmakers give such odds to the favorites is the crowd that bets a lot of money on the favorites - bookmakers cannot take risks and give "real" odds, because if the favorite suddenly wins, the bookmaker may be in the red. It turns out that it is profitable to bet on a 4-8 team? What do you think? Plus, I'm sure that if you make such bets at the beginning of the draw, then during the tournament there will be opportunities to hedge the bet.
225  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: September 22, 2022, 05:54:23 PM
Sevilla who are now in 15th position in the standings with only 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, on matchday 7 Sevilla will play against Atletico. I personally doubt that Sevilla will get full points in this match, even though Sevilla will play at home but with a performance like that I think it is still difficult for Sevilla to beat Atletico. Although indeed, at this moment Atletico did not have optimal performance but at least Atletico's position was better than Sevilla. I just don't think Sevilla who in the last few seasons have seen a strong defense, but this season they look very fragile because they are prone to conceding.

In fact, Sevilla is not far from the last place (only 4 points difference). Despite the problems in defense, I think that Sevilla is not in the place they deserve and soon they will start to score points. It is unlikely that this will happen in the game against Atlético but in general I expect that the high odds that the bookmakers give for Sevilla to win should soon start to pay off.
226  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: September 22, 2022, 05:42:16 PM
Udinese are a really surprising team in this season. After seven weeks we are seeing them only one point behind the leader. Of course it is still very difficult for teams like them to have a consistent form during the season. I wonder when they will start to struggle. But it is good to see some different teams at top places as well. Even if they don't become the champions they can still have a solid season. Especially while some favourites are having tough days Udinese have a nice chance to stay ahead of them for longer.

If I remember correctly the results of last season, then Udinese does not participate in the Euro Cup competitions. Given the fact that for all the top teams that participate in the Euro Cup competitions, the calendar of games is very busy, even if Udinese will experience problems, this will be compensated by an easier match schedule. It turns out that they have a large margin of safety and with some luck they can remain in the leading group even until the end of the championship.
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231  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When betting becomes to high on: September 19, 2022, 10:26:33 AM
I've done that and landed into debt. If I haven't chosen to go beyond my ability, now I couldn't have experienced much of financial stress. Just because of the debt I was in a situation to earn additional to my day job. If not what I earn is enough to have a normal life. Anyhow its all my fate to experience such situation. Maybe I could've lost it somewhere else, if I haven't lost on gambling. This is how I pacify myself when I get into financial stress.

I sympathize with you and wish you to get out of this situation as soon as possible. There is another point of view that helps to be optimistic: I know that many people who take out a loan (mostly a mortgage) find themselves in a situation of lack of money and this changes their mind set. This makes them think about additional sources of income and as a result they become more active and either start a successful career or business.
232  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: September 19, 2022, 10:08:04 AM
-skip-
Regarding the champions league, I have no doubt that Galtier's squad will make it to the next round. however, if we talk about the champions league title.
at least, PSG is one of the strongest candidates from several other candidates who are favorites to win the champions league.
Well, I prefer to let time answer that. whether messi can bring his squad to the champions league title for the first time, let's enjoy game by game and let time tell.

To my surprise bookies rate PSG as the second top contender to win the Champions League with 5.55 odds (Manchester City are the top contender with 2.85 odds). It seems to me that making predictions (or betting) in a tournament where there are elimination games is a rather pointless exercise, but the odds of the bookmakers show that most specialists rate PSG very highly. Although, on the other hand, Barcelona, which has not yet proved its strength with strong opponents, is estimated not much worse - 11.80.
233  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: September 19, 2022, 09:35:44 AM
I was also expecting Atletico Madrid to get one point in the worst case. But they lost by 2-1 despite having a good performance actually. Atletico Madrid had more impressive statistics than Real Madrid in this game. But Real Madrid finished them by 2 goals in the first half already. Hermoso's late goal was a silver lining but they couldn't make the comeback. Hermoso got a red card in the stoppage time too which was a big mental hit to the team.

Real Madrid are still unstoppable even after a big game in the league. It's like the only team that can do this seem Barcelona for now while even Atletico Madrid are like this.

Including the UEFA Super Cup, the Champions League and the LA League, Real Madrid's winning streak is already 9 games. This is a great and unexpected result, given that some opponents were very strong. Real Madrid have two easy games ahead of them in the Champions League and two easy games in La Liga, so they will have the opportunity to prepare as well as possible before the game with Barcelona, which means that the task of Barcelona to win to come out on top will be difficult to realize.
234  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Canelo vs Golovkin 3 - September 17 on: September 18, 2022, 05:42:40 PM
I noticed an interesting thing about this fight: Golovkin can win, but most likely only by knockout - he is too old to last the whole distance of the fight and win on points. If Canelo wins, it is likely that his advantage in the fight will result in Golovkin getting knocked out before the end of the fight. So, based on these considerations, it seems to me that a bet on total 11.5 under with odds of 2.45 looks very profitable.

Old but not too old mate, don't underestimate GGG, he might have aged but he still has the power. If we believe hat he is too old, then there's no chance that he can knock out a strong Canelo Alvarez. We will see this fight tomorrow, I can't wait to watch this big fight, hopefully, it's another entertaining fight.

Too bad (for me, hehe because of the bet) that the bookmakers were right and the fight lasted the full 12 rounds. To my surprise, Golovkin looked better than I expected and even surpassed Canelo in the number of jabs. It is a pity that in all other indicators he was worse and, by a fair decision of the judges, lost the fight. Well, it was a good fight, but few people expected a different result, so it's hard to say that it somehow changed the future plans of these two boxers.
235  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: September 18, 2022, 04:45:57 PM
Wow! Shocking results and now Inter and Juventus continue to fall into the middle of the standings. Everyone is talking about Juventus and with the Champions League its results are really terrible, but Inter is not much better - they have 2 points more but a whopping 3 defeats in 7 games. This is a graph of an average team but not a contender for the championship.
There are two games left and all four teams are at the top and claiming first place at the end of the tour, it seems that Atalanta has the best chances as they lead the game against Roma after the first half, but I'm sure that everything is not decided yet here.
236  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Choices: Gamble or Help the poor ? on: September 18, 2022, 04:07:48 PM
In order to understand the psychology of gamblers, i have decided to come up few questions for discussions, and here is the first one.

Suppose that you are a responsible gambler who have allocated a certain portion of money to gamble each month. Now you came across a poor person/family who is in urgent need of money. Will you quit the gambling for that month and give the allocated money to the poor family or will you prefer to gamble as you can't live without gambling?

In my opinion, the question is posed incorrectly and in some ways even it is immoral. Let's say there are people who never do charity work, and in the described case, they won't either. Is that why we should put them in the "can't live without gambling" category? Or let's take the other extreme: a person spends 90% of his income on charity, but he leaves a certain minimum for himself (including gambling). Should we require him to give up even the bare minimum?
In general, I'm not sure that such situations you model will help you understand the psychology of gamblers. You are missing too many other details.
237  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are you being secretive about your gambling activity? on: September 18, 2022, 03:45:41 PM
Are you hiding your gambling activity from your loved ones, family or so?
Or are you being 100% open about gambling?

 Huh

In general terms, my wife knows everything about my gambling activity. But if you take the details, she does not know anything, because if I explain why in different cases I take different risks (sometimes very different ones) I will have to explain too much mathematics. I think that it is enough that she knows my gambling budget and knows that this money is initially considered as "spent on a hobby". Therefore, even if the money "spent on a hobby" actually turns out to be not spent, but increases after successful bets, they still remain in the category of gambling money. She knows that I will withdraw only if I win big.
238  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Canelo vs Golovkin 3 - September 17 on: September 17, 2022, 10:47:43 AM
Although I really want GGG want to win the fight to finally get his dream revenge to Canelo but I’m Canelo already learned his lesson on his defeat against Bivol and Boxer with this kind of caliber will not gonna fall on same mistake. That is not weakness but rather just a mistake on there side for not preparing properly for Bivol because they underestimated the guy. I’m sure this fight will be closed but my bet will still go to Canelo this time because I always take priority the age on Boxing especially if both fighters has a great records.

I noticed an interesting thing about this fight: Golovkin can win, but most likely only by knockout - he is too old to last the whole distance of the fight and win on points. If Canelo wins, it is likely that his advantage in the fight will result in Golovkin getting knocked out before the end of the fight. So, based on these considerations, it seems to me that a bet on total 11.5 under with odds of 2.45 looks very profitable.
239  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2022/23 Season on: September 17, 2022, 10:24:33 AM
Sheriff Tiraspol were an unpredictable team even though bookmakers were showing Manchester United as the absolute favourite by a very low odd. However Manchester United prevented any surprise by bringing the score to 2-0 in the first half already. Ronaldo didn't have an impressive performance even though he scored a penalty. His performance is far from the previous season for now and this will push Erik ten Hag to prefer Rashford over him more in their Premier League games.

However he might still continue to choose Ronaldo in all of the Europa League games. It isn't nice to see Ronaldo being treated as a backup player but there is nothing to do about it unless he makes a big improvement in his effort.
I wonder what caused the fact that Ronaldo's form is far from optimal. Is it because of a failed move to another club that he messed up pre-season or because he planned to peak his form for the World Cup? It would be very interesting if the latter. Portugal are unlikely to achieve much in the World Cup, but this is the last World Cup for Ronaldo and he obviously wants to do his best.
240  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: September 16, 2022, 10:37:09 AM
Bayern Performance still inconsistent depending last two draw in Bundesliga except achievement success defeated Barcelona in UEFA Champion League. I think draw result for Bayern Munich is bac achievement because loss many points and Bayern Munich have to loss first standing position awhile. But good capital after winning in UEFA Champion League will be motivate to win next match against Ausburg, on the paper actually easy for Bayern Munich depending with Ausburg just won 2 match and have got 4 loss in last 6 games in Bundesliga, actually Ausburg won in last week and could be motivate against with Bayern Munich.

There may be a problem with motivation in games in the Bundesliga (especially after the start when Bayern smashed everyone with a big score). As we see in important games against Barcelona and Inter, Bayern won confidently. Now that they are almost guaranteed a place in the playoffs, they can turn their attention back to the Bundesliga and start winning big. I think that Augsburg will be very unlucky in tomorrow's game - they met Bayern at a very unfortunate moment.
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