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221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dead cat bounce on: September 27, 2011, 01:31:20 AM
I'm so sorry guys, but is this forum just full of a bunch of illiterate fools? If you read anything in this post, read the big bold line.

So this means miners are stupid? :p

Nah, just you.

That aggressive tone is unwarranted - stopping from mining when you still earn enough to pay the electricity bill is a bad business decision. If you can't comprehend this simple fact then there's really nothing to talk about. I thought you were implying that the whole notion of sunk cost is a fallacy.

If short run marginal cost is below what you can sell for, you produce more.  You hope to recover your "sunk" cost over the life of the project.

God, I wish my tone was unwarranted, but it sometimes reminds people to go back and read the OP. Clearly not in any of your cases. Maybe I can help you with that. Just read the bold bits:

It's no longer profitable to invest in new mining rigs. [Under this assumption], why isn't mining stopping?

And my response:

If things stay the same, it will.

In other words, it doesn't make sense to mine if you are losing money doing it. Yes! That's what I said! And I only had to read the OP once! I bet you can figure out what this all means, Patrick? Well, let me help you along: If the short run marginal cost is above what you can sell it for, we will be seeing a difficulty drop. Indeed!

Buying and paying off a card in this climate looks very tough and cannot be advised.  However, if you already have the hardware and you aren't so worried about hardware deterioration then mining is surely still quite profitable.

My miner is still (price = 4.8 USD, difficulty = 1755425) just about beats electricity and not only do I pay the equivalent of about .17 USD for each kWh of electricity but my dual 5850 miner is currently housing an AMD Phenom II x6 1100T: overvolted, overclocked to 4.0 GHz, and running at 100% on all cores.

Perhaps some people have much higher electricity costs or are still trying to mine with Nvidia cards but I'd imagine the bulk of the miners are comfortably covering their electricity costs with their earnings.

Thanks for actually participating, Teukon. No sarcasm at all.
222  Economy / Digital goods / Re: [WTS] Domain: playcasinobtc.com on: September 27, 2011, 01:01:40 AM
.812

Do you even have $5?
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dead cat bounce on: September 26, 2011, 09:03:50 PM

There's a little something called sunk cost, and it's by no means a fallacy: when you've already committed a large budget of money and time on a mining project, you can't pull out if you are not "living the dream".

You don't know a damn thing about what you're talking about. It doesn't matter how much you spent up front, if you're lose money, net, you should stop mining. Also, read once in a while.
224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dead cat bounce on: September 26, 2011, 08:40:37 PM
And also - wouldn't you expect the difficulty go down? It's no longer profitable to invest in new mining rigs, moreover, many people are scarcely making any profit with such low exchange rates.

If things stay the same, it will. Takes time for people to recalculate (if they bother in the first place). Also, there's sunk cost fallacy, and delayed electrical bills to help stall miners from pulling the plug.
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BTCUSD break the long term trend? on: September 26, 2011, 08:37:00 PM
Yes, this is the harsh reality of the bitcoin -- it would be a true deflationary commodity if difficulty were able to not go back down over time with relation to the number of people mining it, but since it does it is neither a deflationary nor inflationary commodity but both depending on the direction of the difficulty and the hash rate.

No. Difficulty and the number of miners has nothing to do with Bitcoin's ultimate deflation. All that matters is that there is a finite supply in the long run. Gold is ultimately deflationary for the same reason; the planet will eventually run out at some point. Turns out that we know, pretty generally, when to expect deflation in bitcoins; it's built into the algorithm. Bitcoins, like gold, experience both short term inflation and deflation as long as there is an attitude that it's still useful to sell now (and produce). As production tapers off with ramped up difficulty, the likelihood of that sentiment remaining is low.

This, assuming of course, that at least one person is left to mine Bitcoins.
226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica spreads off the charts on: September 23, 2011, 01:10:14 AM
To get back on track, I love this graph. I wonder what happened on the 15th, where "as transactions increase, spreads will decrease." Suuuuuuuuuuuure will!

Given their exposure to volatility, they have to have huge spreads.

Spreads were 3x anything quoted on that chart when this thread was posted. I know spreads need to be large, I'm just shocked at how large.
227  Other / Off-topic / Re: I WILL PAY FOR PINKIEPIE'S STUFF on: September 23, 2011, 12:45:30 AM
It'd make sense to base themselves out of NY though since that's where the high rollers are(except microsoft which is out in cali)

Where is Microsoft headquarters?. Good luck finding anything, bro.
228  Economy / Speculation / Re: what would happen to bitcoin if... on: September 22, 2011, 04:44:09 AM
my main thoughts were would it survive and thrive? or die out because the speculation market is gone.


Some of us are here to get away from the control that comes with fiat. I would go so far as to assume that some of the more hardcore Bitcoin proponents feel this way. If someone managed to control Bitcoin (which I see as unlikely at this point), many of those hardcore proponents would be gone the next day.

You do realize that the "control scheme" you're so worried about is actually completely automated in Bitcoin, and the very reason why gold is no longer used as a currency: unmanaged money supply will never be stable, and instability makes for unusable currency.
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica spreads off the charts on: September 22, 2011, 04:35:21 AM
To get back on track, I love this graph. I wonder what happened on the 15th, where "as transactions increase, spreads will decrease." Suuuuuuuuuuuure will!

230  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica spreads off the charts on: September 21, 2011, 04:26:56 PM
I'm not worried myself based on charts and T.A., more just frustrated with the blatant 17000BTC Manipulation Wall that killed the really dead in its tracks. Obviously The Manipulator wants to buy lower and is happy to risk peoples confidence.

I would much more quickly trust indicators of behavior over silly fake walls.

I'm sort of wondering why the hell that wall even affected the rally.  Anyone could see that it was manipulation.

The idea and scale of the manipulation alone makes me worried. This affects everything.
231  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoinica spreads off the charts on: September 21, 2011, 04:10:39 PM
About a minute ago, we were looking at 6000 pip spread, it's now in the 3000 range...people are worried.
232  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Unknown National Chain Restaurant to Accept Bitcoin This Weekend on: September 21, 2011, 05:51:02 AM
Him stepping away from btc (at least in any public sense) can only help the community as a whole. 

If a thief finds a new calling in life where they can help people, instead of continuing to hurt them like they used to, and you take that away from them, the ONLY thing you will accomplish is making that thief desperate enough to return to hurting others. If Bruce is as horrible as you say he is, I'd much rather have him host a harmless interview show than actively trying to figure out how to scam us out of our Bitcoins.

Uhh, yes. Bruce Wagner will only be a sleezy, law-breaking mortgage bitcoin scammer because he found a new calling, but then decided after being harassed on the internet it's time to rape and pillage. Yes. Yes, you're right. Bruce is a wonderful man turned bad by hell-borne internetspeak. God save his soul. Maybe you should donate a few BTC to help him on his righteous way?
233  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Unknown National Chain Restaurant to Accept Bitcoin This Weekend on: September 21, 2011, 03:18:35 AM
I'm also still a bit lost on the whole SA goon lied to Bruce == Bruce is a liar and should not be trusted. Someone please explain?

They're not related. With SA's history of internet detectivity, they uncovered a lot about Bruce Wagner's background before this stupid restaurant thing. Ignore the address (SA after all), it's actually a pretty legit look into Wagner.

http://buttcoin.org/has-bruce-wagner-pulled-off-the-financial-biggest-scam-on-the-bitcoin-community
234  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: September 19, 2011, 11:39:17 PM
I don't understand the spread estimates/averages on the homepage:

Spread* (฿)   0.13286
Spread* (%)   1.303%

0.13 BTC / 5 BTC is 2.6%, not 1.3%

>>Spread is 1.3% above and below market price



In that case the BTC spread should be 0.066  (not 0.132).

One of the two numbers is WRONG.
I agree. I wasn't suggesting it was transparent, only the calculation is being done that way. It's still like that.
235  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: September 19, 2011, 11:10:20 PM
You're placing a Stop order.

Well crap, that was supposed to be a limit order.

I agree with a bit more clarification on the orders, especially for your trailing stop. You don't allow a %/$ change, and the description suggests that a trailing stop is going to move with every increase/decrease (sell/buy) of the bid/ask, essentially reducing the difference with each price change.

edit: It's not actually behaving this way, from what I can tell, but led to some confusion.
236  Economy / Economics / Re: Is it stabilizing? on: September 19, 2011, 09:37:56 PM
The fundamentals support $5/BTC, so the price is supported by true value.  True value is stable.

So yes.

Whenever it seems to be, it moves somewhere else.

Yeah, if you read my last post, I was not being serious. Compare the quote above to Revalin's first comment in the thread.

I'm all fine and good if people want to speculate, but I think it's a bit funny to toss around fundamental analysis that nearly always depends on features non-existent in BTC. I was just looking at your calculations, Revalin, and just out of curiosity, how do you know how many coins are in circulation, and where is your estimate for average hoarding time coming from?
237  Economy / Economics / Re: Is it stabilizing? on: September 19, 2011, 08:39:21 PM
I was just giving you a hard time. I don't really trust "fundamentals" any more than I do historic prices projecting future prices. I take my walks random.
238  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: September 19, 2011, 07:38:49 PM
They are having a liquidity problem, because people just open their positions but put no limit orders except stop orders.

The market orders remain open because there are no counterpart.

As they get into Tradehill and get more costumers, this will solve by itself.

If you place several market orders, and watch they get completed, you will notice you can bump up or down the prices really fast (for lack of liquidity).

All I can tell you people is: Patience, lots of patience... When leveraged 5 times, remember some "medium-hitters" can become heavy-hitters easily (myself included... when I got into bitcoinica, I did a too big market order, and saw a spike of 20 cents caused by my own order... while at mtgox I would move only 2 or 3 cents... but also looking in mtgox order book, maybe it would moved even more than 20 cents...)

It's a nice guess, but there's no transparency, so who knows? Also, regardless of the "liquidity problem," they're going to have a hard time retaining customers if "slippage" results in 10% swings above and beyond stop-loss contingencies, regardless of the reasons.
239  Economy / Economics / Re: Is it stabilizing? on: September 19, 2011, 07:32:48 PM
My method puts the fundamental value in the $5 range. They rest on the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. How do you compute fundamental support at the low cents range?
240  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: September 19, 2011, 07:23:14 PM
look at mtgoxlive.com and see if ask was not near there.

And then remember that bitcoinica has larger spread (ie: earlier, as mtgox jumped from 5 to 5.1, bitcoinica went from 5.05 to 5.35) and momentum

First, market (MtGox) has been nowhere near 5.7 in the last 24 hours. Second, stop orders on Bitcoinica are conducted at Bitcoinica's bid/ask spread, not market values (which should be the case. They aren't an exchange).

bitcoinica stop orders are triggered by the bid ask, but they are executed at whatever value it can. Even market orders do not execute at current market price (only the leverage is calculated... thus yes, you can get negative trading balance).

And when you complained, and posted that photo of (1 minute ago), that was exactly when I am seeing a spike to 5.6 on mtgox live Wink

A spike triggering a buy run on bitcoinica is not unlikely (in fact, MANY people lsot money this way... NEVER attempt to trade at bitcoinica during a mtgox spike, there will be massive spread and slippage... I always wait for the price to settle).

You must be looking at some other graph, 36 min ago (which is up to date time on that order) was nowhere near 5.6, even. and that's already a 1.7% spread. Last time it was close to 6 was 45 min ago.

I understand what is happening here, but honestly, given the data I'm looking at, I don't trust Bitcoinica's algorithm to adequately conduct trades without some shady practices here.
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