Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

The UK's EU referendum: Will UK remain, what will be remain vote %, and what turnout %?

We are less than a month away from the UK's EU referendum scheduled for Thursday, 23 June. People of the UK will on that day decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union.

And though few months ago many thought that the UK will easily leave the European Union, recent opinion polls show that its people will probably vote to stay in the EU. Still, if you think that voting for leaving the European Union is still possible, then you can use great odds on this option at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.

You can also follow by predicting the official % of votes that will go in favor of staying in the EU. Are we going to have some huge surprises like less than 40% people voting to remain, or even over 70%?

Still, some realistic results are more favorable, like that in the range of the 55.01% - 60% votes to remain. But, nothing is sure so if you can predict the right percentage of votes to remain in the EU in the UK’s EU referendum, then you can as well use great odds that you have on offer at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-to-remain-vote-percentage/.

And, what about referendum turnout? Will recent polls that people want to vote in the favor of staying stop people from even voting? Or will turnout be huge? You can go with 67.5% and under; or 67.6% and over, so predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-referendum-turnout/.

Will Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president these days?

As there is not much fuss with the primaries, popular topic that emerged these days is will, and when, Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president? With this move he would end a nearly unprecedented standoff between the House speaker and his party’s presumptive presidential nominee.

Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, told that he expects Ryan to endorse the party’s nominee as early as this week, but on the other side Ryan aides say nothing has been decided about a possible Trump endorsement.

And, as many think that the endorsement will come in the following days, others are sure that Ryan will continue to distance himself from the combative Trump enough to leave him in a good position to run in 2020 if the billionaire is trounced in November.

Also, for Ryan to endorse Trump, he would have to explain away deep divisions between his positions and Trump’s. But if he decides to endorse publicly, that wouldn’t matter so much. So, what will Paul Ryan do? Predict at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-paul-ryan-endorse-donald-trump-for-president-before-june-15/.

Will Sanders close South Dakota, and will Hillary win in New Mexico on the penultimate voting day?

It is another Tuesday, but this time with nothing interesting on the US Presidential Election scene. All is finished with the Republicans, so we can focus even more on June 7, the penultimate voting day in the Democratic primary. You already have at Fairlay offer market for California primary and you can make your prediction on it at:

California Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.

California is one of the six states holding a Democratic primary on June 7, alongside North Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico, all of them before Washington, D.C., on June 14. And though it is almost sure that Hillary will be Democratic nominee, it will be interesting to see how much will Sanders harm her to the end.

He is a huge favorite to win Montana and North Dakota, but it will be interesting to see can he easily close South Dakota as well. Many think that it is one of the closest races left, but demographics of the state favor Bernie. But recently even Bill Clinton held a South Dakota campaign event on behalf of his wife. So can that help Hillary? Predict at:

South Dakota Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-dakota-democratic-primary/.

And though she could lose both North and South Dakota, as well as Montana, Hillary is a large favorite to win New Jersey, while she hopes that she can add to it California and New Mexico. Demographics of New Mexico favor Hillary, she wins in areas with large Hispanic populations, as well as the fact that New Mexico is a closed primary.

“We’re going to win this state,” Bernie Sanders told a crowd of supporters in Santa Fe few days ago. So, Bernie thinks that he can use his recent momentum to win New Mexico as well. Some even think that Bill doing campaigns on her behalf could hurt Hillary. Can Bernie make a surprise win, or it will be big win for Hillary? Predict at Fairlay:

New Mexico Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-mexico-democratic-primary/.

So, what do you think about these primaries, and would you like to have some other events created as well?

What will be the End of the year price of Bitcoin? Under $500, or even over $600?

Bitcoin price is always a popular topic, but even more recently as we are less than two months away from the Halving and many think that it will change the price of bitcoin. Change it a Lot. But how much is a lot?

Because of this you already have Fairlay market about the Price of Bitcoin 30 days after the Halving (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/), but some think that 30 days after the Halving is rather short period of time in the context of bigger change.

Okay, so what will happen till the end of the year? Many think that recent period without bigger changes is the sure sign that the huge ones are coming, and even some of the experts think that the price will not be in hundreds but in thousands.

Still, you all know that those overestimations are rarely true, but can Bitcoin price at the end of the year close at $600 or higher? That isn’t such a huge number and it is one of the options at Fairlay ‘End of the year price of Bitcoin’ market that you can find here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-bitcoin/.

If you think that excitement with Halving is not a good thing and that other factors influence the price even more, then you can predict that the price will stay under $500 even at the end of the year.

Anyway, you now have another Bitcoin price related market open and thus you can earn even more of them if you predict right the range at which Bitcoin will be at the end of this year. As usual, you can suggest your own Bitcoin related markets. So, which other ones would you like to have created?

Will Florida pass the medical marijuana initiative in 2016?

Forida voters overwhelmingly support legalization of medical marijuana, pollsters said recently, and most also favor legalization of recreational pot use. Medical pot smoking in already on the November ballot, so it is time to put it at Fairlay market as well:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/florida-to-pass-the-medical-marijuana-initiative-in-2016/.

So, according to the market, Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative is likely to pass this time. Still, many think that medical marijuana supporters shouldn't count on a victory just yet. Does that mean that predicting No on this market could be a smart choice?

Support for medical marijuana was also high before the 2014 election, but before an opposition campaign raised doubts among voters. Opponents have promised a vigorous opposition effort this year, which again could drive down support.

Also, the constitutional amendment requires 60 percent of the vote to pass. And few days ago the well-funded campaign opposing Florida’s medical marijuana ballot initiative released a new video advertisement calling the proposal a ‘scam to legalize pot.’

What is your opinion on this market, and do you want to see some similar ones created as well? And don't forget that already have an open market on whether California will legalise marijuana in 2016. So, use your time to also predict that one at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.

Is Bernie Sanders able to make a surprise win in the California Democratic primary?

“No one can predict the future, but I think we have a real shot to win primaries in a number of the states that will be coming up. And don't tell Secretary Clinton because she might get nervous,” said Bernie Sanders to his supporters in Carson, California after winning Oregon and losing Kentucky by a small margin last night. “I think we're going to win here in California.”

So, though Hillary has a strong lead in the delegate race, Sanders is showing no signs of backing down. In fact, Sanders has vowed to take his fight all the way until the June 14 voting in the District of Columbia and beyond to the July convention in Philadelphia.

With all of this, Hillary Clinton's Kentucky win was just a joyless victory in a week that exposed a deep Democratic rift. And now the only question is will Sanders use his momentum in the June primaries. And the most important one is one in California, scheduled for Tuesday, June 6, as it gives 475 delegates, far more than any other country does.

Now, Hillary is likely to build a brisk campaign schedule for the coming stretch, hoping to minimize her opponent’s delegate count. California polls are certainly going in her favor, as the most recent ones show that she has a strong 49.7% to 40.6% lead, with 7.6% undecided.

Sanders recently had some bad news as a handful of high-level staffers left his campaign, including three of the four members of his original senior leadership team in California. This, and the fact that he lost all the big states, put Hillary as a big favorite, but if you think that Sanders can use his recent momentum to win California as well, you have great odds at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.

Who will be Hillary’s Vice Presidential Candidate? Kaine? Castro? Perez? First Husband Bill?

It is almost certain that Hillary Clinton will be Democratic Presidential Nominee, so it is time to think about her Vice Presidential Candidate. There are plenty of names, most of them mentioned as the great option in the recent months. Still, that position is still far from the closed so here is the Fairlay market where you can now make your own prediction:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate/.

As you see, the biggest chances are currently given to Sen. Tim Kaine, a friend of President Barack Obama who is widely admired in the West Wing. But many think that at 58 he’d be too old to provide a generational contrast to the 68-year old Clinton, and too white for a campaign being defined by immigration reform and Trump’s attacks on minorities.

Thus, Sen. Elizabeth Warren is also not the best option, though she is amongst the favorites. So, we could have the under-the-radar choice with the name of Tom Perez who checks every box Clinton’s going to need if she is the nominee: progressives, unions, African-Americans, Obama loyalists, Latinos. But, Julian Castro is also near that group of people.

And some think that Xavier Becerra is among Latinos that Hillary could pick. Still, many think that being 57 he is also too old. With this logic, with 47, Cory Booker could be a good option and he is also a black man. In the end, Bernie Sanders is the one who is loved by the young people, so could he be a surprise Democratic Candidate for Vice President?

All in all, plenty of names are talked about and there will always be those who think that the First Husband, and former President, Bill Clinton could be a perfect Vice President. So, it is Hillary’s time to choose and if you think that you know who will her candidate be, you have great odds on any of the names at Fairlay market, so hurry up to pick one:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate/.

Who will finish last, and what will 1-2 order be in Eurovison Grand Final?

After two Semi Finals, Grand Final of Eurovision Song Contest 2016 is scheduled for tomorrow at 21.00 CET. Russia is still the favorite for the win, while Australia, Ukraine, Sweden, and France are give good chances as well:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 – Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

You have probably placed your market on the Eurovision winner, but sometimes people are interested in losers as well. So, who will finish last? That race is far more interesting and we are without the real favorite for the last place.

Both Germany and United Kingdom could finish last as big nations are often among the last ones, but currently it is Georgia with the biggest chances to finish at the bottom. Hurry up to place your prediction on the biggest loser at:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - To Finish Last:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-to-finish-last/.

Voting system is always interesting to follow and when the votes are given it is not only about the leader but also about the runner up. So, in order to make the Grand Final more interesting you can now also predict 1-2 finish:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016: 1-2 Forecast:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-1-2-forecast/.

So, most think that Russia will be followed by Australia, or Ukraine, or even France. But, what is your opinion? Can someone else be Eurovision winner against all the odds on Russia? Who is your favorite for the Grand Final?

As always, you can suggest your own Fairlay markets at this topic, but it's now also possible to create any market instantly without approval at https://www.fairlay.com/user/event/new.

Will Oregon Democratic primary bring another win for ‘out of chances’ Bernie Sanders?

As Politico's David Wade writes, we already know Sanders isn’t going to win the Democratic Party’s nomination; Hillary Clinton has amassed more than 92 percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination, and she’ll easily pick up the rest. So right now, Sanders’ campaign is the walking dead: a zombie.

Sanders needs to think long and hard about the big cost of criticizing the now-prohibitive Democratic front-runner. He didn’t set out to become Trump’s best ghostwriter for the general election, but that is the role continued attacks on Clinton risk earning him. Without math or momentum on his side, isn’t it better for Sanders to finish the campaign as a happy warrior and build a long-term movement for campaign finance reform?

He could help Hillary Clinton win big and sweep in a Democratic majority in the Senate. He could become a powerful committee chairman. He could return to the next Senate as one of its most influential players. And for an Independent socialist from Vermont who started this campaign as an asterisk, that’s a political revolution in itself.

He could. But Bernie is not doing that and he is going towards another win in Oregon next Tuesday, with Kentucky primaries being held the same day. Oregon polls are not great and do not show much but many think that recent momentum is not enough for Sanders to close and that Hillary has good chances as well. Fairlay market does not show that so if you think that Hillary has at least even chances you have great odds at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-oregon-democratic-primary/.