The 'Russian Submarine' in Swedish Waters Isn't the Only Unwelcome Visitor in the Baltic Sea



Last week Sweden received a decidedly unwelcome visitor. Following a Russian-language phone call between the Stockholm archipelago and the Russian city of Kaliningrad, intercepted by Sweden’s FRA signals intelligence agency, the Swedish military discovered what it believes was a Russian submarine just outside Stockholm. Though Russia denied any submarine presence in the Stockholm archipelago, this time the Swedish military reacted swiftly, quickly dispatching a large naval vessel and several helicopters.

Sweden has learnt from experience: on Good Friday last year, six Russian military planes – including four heavy bombers – carried out a simulated missile attack on Stockholm and southern Sweden. The incident, which became known as the Russian Easter, took the Swedish military by such surprise that its Gripen fighter jets didn’t manage to take off. “What’s happening in the Stockholm archipelago is a serious matter,” says Karin Enström, who was Sweden’s defence minister until the elections this autumn.

“Russia is modernising its military equipment and testing it, but there are also more military exercises. It’s a sign of Russia increasing its -military capabilities, both when it comes to equipment and fighting abilities. These developments in combination with the war in Ukraine are very serious and alarming. Ukraine is impacting on our part of the world very negatively.”

While the world is watching Ukraine, Russia is engaging in a much more important power game here in the Baltic Sea region. The figures are startling. In 2010, only one Russian military vessel was spotted close to Latvian waters. This year, the figure has already exceeded 40, Latvia’s ministry of defence says. During the same period, the number of Russian military approaches to Latvian airspace resulting in scrambles by Nato’s Baltic air policing mission has skyrocketed from around five to more than 180. Neighbouring Lithuania has already seen 132 scrambles this year, up from four in 2010. Estonia, meanwhile, is seeing not just unwelcome approaches to its airspace and waters but also the abduction of one of its intelligence officers to Russia.
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Then there is the smaller number of violations of neighbours’ airspace and waters.  In 2010, there were no Russian violations of Finnish airspace. This year, the Finnish ministry of defence figures show, there have already been five. “What are intentions of [these activities]?” asks Major General Jonas Vytautas Zukas, Lithuania’s Chief of Defence. “We can only speculate.  From my point of view, it can be a show of military power as part of an information operation or the test of preparedness of the Nato air force.”

At the same time, Russia is engaging in information warfare against its small neighbours to the West. According to Latvia’s foreign ministry, Russian-affiliated outlets assert that Latvia’s integration into the Western hemisphere was a geopolitical mistake; that the country has always been a part of Russia; that the country discriminates against ethnic minorities including its 26% share of Russians; and that Latvia supports Nazism.

Indeed, the consensus among Russia’s small neighbours in the wealthy and crucial trading region around the Baltic Sea is that the mighty former superpower in the East is either trying to bully them, or to test their defence, or both.

“It’s partly big-power arrogance,” says Colonel Jan Mörtberg of the Swedish Defence College. “Or it can be contingency planning for a conflict in the Baltic Sea, or they’re trying to make us spend more money on preparedness. Military preparedness is expensive, but you have to respond to provocations. That means we’ll have less money to spend on other military matters.”

Last week’s submarine discovery forms an ominous sequel to the infamous “whisky on the rocks” incident in 1981, when a Soviet submarine went aground in Swedish waters. 

Indeed, notes Mörtberg, during the Cold War the Soviet Union gave Sweden and Finland plenty of ominous attention as well. “But in those days it didn’t have to restore its superpower -status. That status was clear. That is what is different now.”

The Russia now apparently sending a submarine to Stockholm is a country that’s rapidly growing its defence budget and upgrading its military equipment. “Russia is trying to position itself as a -dominant centre of power on the global stage”, notes a high-ranking Latvian official. “Its ambitions are not limited to Ukraine.”

Though enrolment in the Lithuanian -Riflemen’s Union – a civil defence organisation – has skyrocketed in recent months and Lithuanian MEP Gabrielius Landsbergis reports that his countrymen would willingly take action if green men materialised in their streets, nobody believes that Russia plans Ukraine-style military actions in the Baltic states, Sweden or Finland. Its more likely objective, especially with the US preoccupied elsewhere, is instead local -decision-making based on fear of Vladimir Putin.

“Today Russian provocations are on the minds of decision-makers in the region when they make their decisions,” notes Pauli Järvenpää, a Finnish security expert and former ambassador now based in Tallinn.

“In Finland, 60% of people now consider Russia a threat, compared to 30% at the beginning of the year.” Putin’s goal, argues Mörtberg, may be to ensure that neither Sweden nor Finland joins Nato. Indeed, three distinguished Swedish diplomats recently argued that Swedish membership of Nato would needlessly provoke -Russia. “If things get worse we’ll ask for more Nato involvement,” vows Landsbergis. Nato is, of course, already conducting air policing missions in the Baltic states.

Subjugated neighbours or neighbours turning to Nato for help: both scenarios are alarming. After year of dismantling its military, Sweden has woken up to the threat. “We [Sweden] need to strengthen our defence and be more present in the air, on water and underneath the water and we have to be prepared to use our military capabilities,” says Enström.

Lithuania is already taking action. “In view of the current security situation in the region the Lithuanian armed forces are looking to summon up certain capabilities and form a very high national readiness response force that can react within two–24 hours and have sufficient combat capacity to prevent hostile actions within the territory of Lithuania in peacetime,” reports Zukas. The force will consist of ground troops, air force and special forces.

Tiny Lithuania, in other words, is planning to fight back. And Sweden? It’s vowing not to let the intruder get away this time.

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/damaged-submarine-spotted-swedish-waters-russia-turns-baltics-278694.html

  18:40 - 19:40

  25:25 - That is why we should take everything that can be taken (from Ukraine)

^Plunder, looting and raiding - only this job ruSSians is capable to do

СНЕГОУБОРЩИК-СТАХАНОВЕЦ
Хорошо поработал, прежде чем...
Весь снег убрал в Москве и Московской области!

NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA F-16 jets on 21 OCT scrambled to intercept RU Armed Forces Il-20 over the Baltic Sea.
It was the second sighting of the particular type of plane. CF-118 intercepted Il-20 also on 20 OCT.

Russia Strengthens Air Defenses With Bases in Belarus and Central Asia





As Moscow moves to bolster its military presence in ex-Soviet allied states, the head of the Russian air force announced that Russia will establish an airbase for fighter jets in eastern Belarus in 2016, state media outlets reported Wednesday.

Colonel General Viktor Bondarev also said Moscow planned to expand its airbases in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

The three nations are members of a loose Russia-dominated security alliance known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which has accelerated efforts to create a unified air defense network as the Ukraine crisis reenergizes the West's military powerhouse, NATO.

The new airbase in the Belarusian city of Babruysk will expand Russia's already strong air presence in Belarus. The base will be home to a wing of Russian Su-27 fighter jets, news agency TASS reported.

Even before the conflict in Ukraine, Russia under President Vladimir Putin had been making major efforts to re-establish its historical military presence in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Arctic and beyond. Negotiations with Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to establish bases for Russian strategic bombers are ongoing.

"By 2020 ... 47 airfields, including in Crimea in the Arctic, will be renovated under the state armaments program," Bondarev was quoted as saying by Interfax. By 2025, he added, the Russian air force will have restored and reopened over 100 military airbases.

Last year, a unit of Russian fighter jets were deployed to a Belarussian airbase in Baranovichi as part of the countries' integrated regional air defense network. Russia also announced that it would station fighter jets at a Russian-built airbase in the Belarussian city of Lida, near the country's border with Poland and Lithuania.

Russian defense officials have characterized these deployments as a response to NATO's beefed-up air patrols in the Baltics and Poland.

Bondarev was also quoted by RIA Novosti as saying on Wednesday that Moscow is negotiating with Bishkek to reconstruct the Kant airbase in Kyrgyzstan, which is a home for Russian fighter jets under CSTO auspices. While the base is usable, further construction is needed to support Russian strategic bombers, he said.

Bondarev said similar work will be done on an airbase in Armenia, the Soviet-era Erebuni base, which is already home to Russian MiG-29 fighter aircraft.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-strengthens-air-defenses-with-bases-in-belarus-and-central-asia/509491.html

Swedish Armed Forces releases a photo of an observation that indicates underwater activity in the archipelago.





http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/ubatsjakten-i-skargarden/

auto-translated from norwegian site

Mysterious Russian oil tanker changed course again



The Russian-owned trading vessel NS Concord since Wednesday remained in international waters outside the Stockholm archipelago.

According to GPS data from Marina Traffic moving oil tanker a short distance eastward at midnight on Saturday, before being re-suspended shortly after it became known that the submarine in Sweden may be Russian, according to Svenska Dagbladet .

This happened after it became known that Swedish intelligence captured what may have been a Russian emergency in stockholm archipelago.
Have stopped and turned around several times

Early Sunday morning held tanker southwesterly course towards the island Gotska Sandön nine knots.

- Now it has turned around and going in 12 knots to the northeast, says Anders Nordin in the Swedish Maritime Administration said.

According to the same newspaper's NS Concords presence unknown to Swedish civil authorities, and the boat has probably never been in port in Sweden.

The ship is registered in Liberia and flying the Liberian flag but operated by Russian SCF Novoship, which in turn is owned by the Russian state. It was built in 2005 and classified by the Norwegian Veritas.
- Can be connected to Putin

The ship is 244 meters long and 42 meters wide, and has a net weight of all 57 000 tonnes.

According to the Swedish Dagens Nyheter oil tanker can be connected to what they call the "inner circle" of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Novoships owner, the state oil transport group Sovcomflot, has in fact a CEO of Sovcomflot named Sergey Frank.

He has held several senior positions in Russian politics, including as transport minister from 1998 to 2004, under six different prime ministers.

He resigned when Putin dismissed the entire Kasjanov government in February 2004 In October of the same year he took the top job in Sovcomflot, a position he has held since.

Also read: Expert on Swedish defense alarm: Hardly Russian submarine
Could be a mother ship for ROV

The Swedes have now intensified the search for what is suspected to be a Russian submarine in Swedish waters. The Swedish commander Jonas Wikström described at a news conference Saturday afternoon that "submarine information is very credible," and told it that efforts were further enhanced.

Experts newspaper has talked to speculate about the submarine in the Swedish archipelago can be a mini submarine. Such a vessel is dependent on a mother ship and, according to the newspaper may be linked to the submarine oil tanker.

During the Cold War, Russia used the converted fishing or merchant vessels as a base for their subs, and according to the newspaper can this theory be the explanation behind the mystery submarine in Sweden.
Russian authorities dismiss

Russian authorities have now denied that there was any "anomalous events" simply no emergency regarding Russian naval vessels.

It writes the Russian news agency Interfax.

The Agency notes that the defense ministry rejected western media reports, without mentioning the Swedish submarine hunt especially. A spokesman for the defense ministry, however, says the agency:

- The Russian Navy's submarines perform tasks on all the world, like other naval vessels.



http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/Mystisk-russisk-oljetanker-har-endret-kurs-igjen-7750300.html

Sweden steps up hunt for 'foreign underwater activity'

(Reuters) - Sweden beefed up its military presence in the Stockholm archipelago on Saturday to scour its waters for "foreign underwater activity", a mobilization of Swedish ships, troops and helicopters unseen since the Cold War.







The search in the Baltic Sea less than 30 miles (50 km) from Stockholm began on Friday and reawakened memories of the final years of the Cold War when Sweden repeatedly hunted suspected Soviet submarines along its coast with depth charges.

There is now increasing tension with Russia among the Nordic and Baltic states - most of them European Union members - over Moscow's involvement in the Ukraine crisis. Finland last week accused the Russian navy of interfering with a Finnish environmental research vessel in international waters.

The Swedish military has said information about suspicious activity came from a trustworthy source, without providing details, and that more than 200 military personnel were involved in the search.

The Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet, citing unidentified sources with knowledge of the hunt, said it began after a radio transmission in Russian on an emergency frequency.

Further encrypted radio traffic from a point in the archipelago and the enclave of Kaliningrad, home to the Russian Baltic fleet's headquarters, was intercepted on Friday evening after the Swedish search started, the newspaper said.

The Russian Defence Ministry said on Sunday that there were no emergency situations in the Baltic involving its vessels.

"Russian Navy ships and submarines are fulfilling their duties in the world ocean waters in accordance with the plan," Interfax news agency quoted a ministry spokesman as saying. "There has been and there are no extraordinary, let alone emergency, situations involving Russian warships."

Countries in the Baltic Sea region have become increasingly wary of Russia's military ambitions since Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea region in March following the overthrow of Kiev's pro-Moscow president by protesters.

Last month, Sweden said two Russian warplanes entered its air space, calling the intrusion a "serious violation" and sending a protest to Moscow's ambassador in the Nordic country.

Ships, helicopters and troops from an amphibious unit as well as the home guard combed the search area in Stockholm's archipelago. The forces include HMS Visby, a corvette that has stealth technology and equipment for anti-submarine warfare.

The Swedish military said on Friday there had been no armed intervention and declined to comment on who might be responsible for the suspicious activity, or whether the report had been about a submarine.

"We still consider the information we received as very trustworthy," Captain Jonas Wikstrom, head of operations for the search, told reporters. "I, as head of operations, have therefore decided to increased the number of units in the area."

Should the search find proof of foreign military activity in Swedish coastal waters it will represent the first real test of Prime Minister Stefan Lofven's center-left minority government only weeks after coming to office.

In 1981, a Soviet submarine known under its Swedish designation U137 was stranded deep inside Swedish waters not far from a major naval base in the neutral country, sparking intense suspicion about the scale and motives of such incursions.

(Additional reporting by Alexei Anishchuk in Moscow, Editing by Mark Heinrich)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/19/us-sweden-deployment-idUSKCN0I70L420141019

Why Is Russia Simulating Nuclear Strikes on Neutral Sweden?



 Russia seems to be pretty mad with its neighbouring countries in the Baltic Sea. Especially with Sweden. A couple of weeks ago, on October 2, Sweden's authority for signals intelligence, FRA, leaked a photo of a Russian fighter flying only about ten metres away from a Swedish Armed Forces intelligence plane.

Last weekend on October 11, a Russian warship threatened a Finnish research vessel in the Baltic Sea. On board were Swedish scientists. And on top of that on October 7, armed NATO-figther jets followed Russian fighters above the Swedish island Öland in the Baltic Sea. It was the Latvian army that posted on Twitter that NATO-jets had followed two Russian military planes in sharp alert over the Baltic Sea.

A government source in one of the Baltic countries neighbouring Sweden told newspaper Svenska Dagbladet that, "The actions of the Russians are sometimes aggressive and their behaviour against signals intelligence planes has been unnerving. It's like during the cold war.” When Russia invaded Swedish air space with their fighter jets, Sweden's former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carl Bildt wrote on his blog that it was "the most serious air violation from Russia" that he had ever seen during the time in which he's been the Minister of Foreign Affairs, which is about eight years.

The Baltic Sea trespassings aren't the only strange behaviours from Russia lately. In fact, last year the country simulated a nuclear attack against Sweden, which sounds like something taken from a really horrible war movie. Also, the Russian fighters have been showing off their weapons, by exposing the undercarriage of their airplanes when approaching Swedish airplanes.

These recent events are eerily similar to the Cold War. Could it be that we are approaching a Cold War II? And if so, what does that mean to a country like Sweden?

Confused and terrified, I called up Tomas Ries. He's a lecturer at the Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership at the National Defence College in Stockholm. I wanted to know what the heck is going on.

VICE: Why is the Russian military behaving so aggressive in the Baltic Sea?
Tomas Ries: There are different interpretations about why. One essential thing is that Russia has a ten-year plan to build up their military forces. So they are increasing their military budget to an extreme extend, which means that there are more Russian forces in and around the Baltics than ever.

But a main reason is that Russia are sending a message to the outside world, saying that the "old" Europe is over. What I mean with that is that the thing with NATO and EU dictating everything – with EU preaching [to Russia] about things such as, democracy and respect for human rights – isn't something that Russia will agree to anymore. Putin wants to emphasize that this era is over and that it's important to understand that Russia is strong. And that we [the rest of the world] need to respect their requests. I think that's the fundamental answer to Russia's behaviour in the Baltic Sea.

But if you want to look at each case individually, it's obvious that Putin dislikes when Finland and Sweden cooperate with NATO. That means that Russia is sending signals that it could get dangerous if you operate military exercises with NATO. For example, they simulated a nuclear attack against Sweden at the same time as Sweden had NATO operations.

You could also question their actions as if they're testing the readiness of the Swedish military. They’re using classic tactics that they used during the Cold War era, when they would fly close to the border, or precisely over the border to see what kind of surveillance system Sweden has and how fast the military will react.

 Could you interpret their actions as a build-up to a Cold War II?
I think it's problematic to use analogies like that because it's different nowadays. But one thing is similar: Russia is going back to their old European security agenda as an independent player with interests that often differ from the rest of the world – for example the ongoing war in Ukraine. So we're going back to a Europe where the tensions between Russia and the rest of Europe escalates and where Russia will increasingly use their growing military capacity.

What exactly does it mean when Russia violates Swedish airspace? And what can Sweden do about it?
It’s a very serious action basically. It means that they're violating Sweden's territorial integrity. Sweden's answer to an air violation is to show Sweden’s defence resources by sending out fighter jets to dismiss Russia's actions. Afterwards Sweden will send a diplomatic message, explaining that Russia’s behaviour is not appreciated.

How serious is it to simulate a nuclear attack against another country?
To violate airspace is one thing but to simulate a nuclear attack against another country – even if you don't violate airspace – is something I interpret as very serious and enormously unfriendly. What scares me the most about the Baltic Sea situation, is events like this.

What's Sweden's relationship with Russia like?
If you look at it historically, and go back to the Cold war, you will see that Sweden has always been something of a disguised partner with NATO. Sweden would have taken NATO’s side if a war broke out. Russia looked at Sweden as a false player, someone who would be on their main enemies' side if war became reality. This is still virtually how Russia sees Sweden today.

You could also add that Carl Bildt, our former Minister of Foreign Affairs, brought an activist foreign policy relating to Russia. He was openly critical to Russia on many occasions. Which also had an affect on their view on Sweden.

What can we do to stop their actions in the Baltic Sea?
This is part of Russia’s new action pattern. I don’t think it's possible to get them to quit their behaviour. The important thing is not these individual incidents, but rather the long-term military power shift in Europe.

What do you think will happen during this long-term power shift?
Well, we know for sure that Russia started a serious rearmament back in 2011. And their military power is going to grow substantially during the next ten years. This means that we will once again have a very big power right next to us. Russia wants to make a new balance in Europe, where the countries in Europe need to respect Russia. It's probable that Russia will use military actions against, what they think are important areas.  Europe is currently almost entirely disarmed when it comes to military defences. Europe as one has one of the world's largest defence budgets, which isn't used, except for in a few countries close to Russia’s borders. They are serious about their defence. Sweden has completely disassembled their defence capabilities. That obviously increases a chance of pressure from Russia.

What would happen if Russia made reality of their intentions now when Sweden doesn't have a defence?
I can’t speculate on that. But what I can say is that Sweden isn’t that vulnerable as you may think – we have Finland, the Baltic countries, and the Baltic Sea between us. However, Gotland [a Swedish island to the East] is very vulnerable. An attack with today’s politics is very unlikely. What is likely, is that one of the Baltic countries could be next. That could lead to crisis in the Nordics where Sweden could get involved.

What would Sweden normally do in situation like that?
We have never done anything like that. The worst thing is that I don’t believe that anyone is thinking about the possibility of that happening. This is still something too new for Sweden to get involved in. It was just a few months ago that Swedish politicians awoke from their ignorant behaviour due to the Ukraine war. And raised the question about the current problematic situation: What if it would happen to Sweden’s neighbouring countries? The new generation of Swedish politicians have no experience in power politics.

So what would happen if Russia nuked us?
I can't really say, but one thing is for sure: as long as you don’t have a military defence you’re very vulnerable. And if they wanted to do anything against us, we’re in great danger.

@molekyl

http://www.vice.com/en_se/read/why-is-russian-military-hanging-out-on-swedish-territory

Poland — and NATO’s — New Espionage Scandal

Two days ago, Polish security officials arrested two men on suspicion of espionage for Russia. Given the current climate of high tension on Poland’s eastern frontier, thanks to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the timing of this arrest is important. For NATO, too, the stakes are high.

Polish officials have been tight-lipped about the case and the names of those under arrest have not been released. However, we know that one man is a colonel in the Polish military, assigned to the Ministry of Defense (MoD) in Warsaw, while the other is an attorney in Poland’s capital, a dual Polish-Russian national who works on economic matters.

Although the men were arrested on the same day, their cases were investigated independently; it is not yet clear whether they are linked. Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) has said little about this affair, officially not citing which country the men are believed to have spied for, although an ABW spokesman stated coyly, “I think you can probably guess which country.” Yesterday, however, a member of the parliamentary commission for the security services revealed that the men had been secretly working for Moscow, specifically for Russian military intelligence (GRU).

Anytime a colonel in the defense ministry is suspected of espionage is a moment to worry — Polish counterintelligencers will be very busy in the weeks ahead trying to assess the damage — but to make matters worse, it has been revealed that the officer had access to NATO secrets, so the Atlantic Alliance must now assume the worst. Polish counterintelligence has a long history of tangling with GRU, and the results have not always been edifying for Warsaw, as I’ve previously explained, because the Russians excel at espionage.

We can take the Polish MoD’s word that the charges facing these men are “very serious” indeed. Warsaw has promised to reveal more details of this case in a few days, and I’ll be reporting on that and giving my analysis. Watch this space.

UPDATE (18 OCT, 1400 EST): It has been confirmed that the lawyer under arrest, Stanislaw Sz., works for the Warsaw firm Stopczyk & Mikulski, where he was engaged on a project to build a terminal for importing LNG at Poland’s Baltic Sea port of Świnoujście, which has strategic significance as it is intended to reduce Poland’s high dependence on Russian LNG. He only received Polish citizenship two years ago, and according to today’s reports his main target for GRU was the Sejm, the Polish parliament, and he had compiled lists of possible recruits. In other words, he was not merely an agent but was charged with recruiting others — “news analysts, PR specialists and experts, politicians, and those employed in the energy sector.” A new statement from an anonymous source that Stanislaw Sz. “had patriotic motivations. He was professionally trained in espionage and behaved very carefully,” implies that he may be a GRU Illegal, i.e. a spy operating under what U.S. intelligence terms “non-official cover” (although the Russian concept of Illegal is a good deal more specialized in tradecraft terms) which represents a more serious problem for ABW and the Polish government. More is sure to emerge in this case.

UPDATE (18 OCT, 1630 EST) A Polish website has revealed that the lawyer suspect’s full name is Stanisław Szypowski (left), who goes by the nickname Staszek. The site includes a video clip of Szypowski discussing (in Polish) business opportunities in Belarus. He is a well-known lobbyist in Warsaw who made his presence known at the Sejm and at key NGOs, which is standard GRU practice, as I’ve explained before.

http://20committee.com/2014/10/18/poland-and-natos-new-espionage-scandal/