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2201  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Final fan mod to my s-5's on: January 24, 2015, 04:01:58 AM
Are you sure if this kind of wiring would not disturb the output of the whole 12V rail since it is connected to a 5V rail? I think 5V rail and 12V rail have very different current
2202  Other / Meta / Re: Recent downtime and data loss on: January 23, 2015, 09:38:40 PM
This totally defeated the purpose of running RAID 10, such high fail rate is already higher than conventional HDD, and I don't think RAID 0 is needed for SSD, they are already enough fast. Use two RAID 1 to backup each other is a better solution, but anyway this is very strange, RAID 1 should give enough warning before a total failure
2203  Economy / Economics / Re: Who control our bitcoins? WE do!! ☆ BANK RUN ☆ on: January 23, 2015, 04:39:12 PM
Exchanges are like banks, they always have the possibility to use FRB. since the fake coins comes from their database, not from the cold storage, an audit of the cold storage will not help

Traditionally, banks using FRB is because they can offer loan to help others using those saving money that seldom moves for decades, and earn interest in the process. But nowadays in developed country, there are seldom some company desperately need loan to eagerly expand business (maybe only bitcoin mining chips company Grin). A bitcoin loan is totally not practical at all, then exchange's only motivation to use FRB is to manipulate the price, but that might create a panic and withdraw, I guess they don't want to start a fire on themselves

2204  Economy / Economics / Re: Why does anyone pay attention to people that study "economics"? on: January 23, 2015, 04:22:44 PM
It is interesting to read your discussions here, it seems you really have some own insights into the economics

I have several questions that have been bothering me for decades, maybe we can have a discussion here:

1. Who get the ownership of every newly created fiat money?

2. We all know that value is decided by supply and demand, but is money's value really decided by supply and demand?

Please share your thoughts Smiley

2205  Economy / Economics / Re: Why does anyone pay attention to people that study "economics"? on: January 23, 2015, 03:27:58 PM
The fresh printed money are all backed by assets, they have valuables backing them, and the banks get those money will use them carefully to not trigger inflation, they inject them into something that is not in CPI
Not directly.  What it does, is to inflate the price of the assets that are bought.  The assets bought by the FED or the ECB or another central bank against freshly printed money is nothing else but an extra demand for these assets which is not compensated by a lesser demand for other assets, as it is bought with money that didn't exist before, and hence is not re-allocated to something else.
Normally, a new demand for asset A implies a lesser demand for asset B, so that the overall price level can stay more or less constant if the offer is constant.  If new money can create a demand for asset A without lowering the already existing demand for asset B with existing money, then the price of asset A will rise.

There is a difference between buying something on market and issuing money. When you buy assets on market, you raise the price of those assets immediately. When you issue money backed by your assets, the assets' market price is not affected directly

For example, I have one ounce of gold, I issue 1200 dollars backed by this ounce of gold based on its market value, anyone get my money can exchange them for gold from me any time. But this activity does not affect gold's price, since majority of those money will flow into the economy instead of buying gold, as long as people's trust of my money is intact

The same goes for any kind of collateral: Unless the new money want to exchange for the collateral itself, the price of the collateral will not be affected by added money supply

So even FED officially say that they are buying MBS, what actually happened is that they issue money backed by MBS's current market value or even with a discount, and commercial banks gave those MBS to FED in exchange for money. As long as FED do not sell them, and no one is buying those MBS, the housing price will not be affected, but the liquidity problem is solved

And when banks get new money, they will never buy those MBS from FED, they just send the money oversea to buy something else valuable, for example oil. And next time they will buy something else, and so on... So there will not be inflation no matter how much money is created, as long as those money are all backed by assets

This was the original idea of John Law, his money was backed by the value of his Mississippi Company (which owns large amount of land around the world). Unfortunately, those money were used to purchase the stock of Mississippi company and pumped that company's value into a bubble. Then he could issue more money to support the stock price because the company worth a lot more later, but when people discovered that his company's land did not worth that much, the trust of the value of the company's stock (land in fact) lost. So many of the money turned to him in exchange for gold coins, then the plan blew up

But in modern monetary system, there is no risk for such bank run, the loop has closed. When the asset that back the money's value is crashing, thus make the money lose their backing, the money can only be used to purchase anything on market, thus create an inflation


So if you already have a nice car and your salary is doubled, you don't spend it, you don't do anything with it.  People don't like their salary doubled when they have already a house and a nice car, right.

For normal people they will just save all the extra money if there is no more intereting thing worth spending. It does not hurt to have one billion dollar in savings, and a large reserve will definitely change many aspects of the life
2206  Other / Meta / Re: Recent downtime and data loss on: January 23, 2015, 08:00:07 AM
Had several SSDs on server broken, I think SSDs are not good at handling large amount of IO for server. My traditional hard drive RAID never failed on the same server
2207  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Review] Spondoolies SP20 review - A Green miner with a Loud fan on: January 21, 2015, 09:00:55 AM
Hey Guys, just found this fan from Enermax:
http://www.enermax.de/luefter/twisterstorm/

154cfm at 38db.

I´m planning to use the SP20 in my living room, so I want to replace the stock fan and underclock to get about 1.0 - 1.2 GH/s. Priority is low noise, not W/GH.
You think this could work oder do I need more cfm output?

I read to whole thread but still not sure if its worth a try  Undecided


Impossible to get 154 cfm at 38db for a 120mm fan, the best 120x38mm fan with 130CFM is already at 70db range, those figures from manufacturer are all marketing tricks

For underclock use, a 60CFM GT1850 with noise around 45db at 1 meter distance is the sweet spot, these are true numbers
2208  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Unofficial Spondoolies SP20 thread on: January 21, 2015, 08:49:32 AM
I wouldn't remove the bottom metal stand - it keeps the boards firmly in place. Thinking about changing the stock fan though, the noise is driving me crazy now with 4 units

Even without that stand the top mounting for the controller board will still lock those ASIC boards firmly in place. Stock fan is terrible, any delta 7 blade fan works much better than stock fan, but the problem is to modify the cabling to utilize the PWM feature on board, too much work for 4 units
2209  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs on: January 21, 2015, 08:42:21 AM
Or, as the artificial intelligence WOPR concludes in the the 1983 movie WarGames, sometimes "the only winning move is not to play."

Okay, that I understand Smiley

So I was just using an arbitrary $.10/kwh rate.  You are saying there may be a sweet spot where rates are high enough that it would make more sense to run underclocked rather than stock.  I'd have to see hard numbers to get it when trying to compare apples to apples.  For the additional capital outlay, I don't see the underclocking making up the difference in a reasonable time.  Since in my example I'm going to pay the same amount for electricity whether I'm using underclocked units or stock units I'm having a hard time seeing the underclock advantage for best dollars spent.
It is good that you are going through the mental exercise. Consider this scenario using an SP30 as an example (SP20 values will of course be different, but the concept is the same) at various underclock settings:

BTC exchange: $220USD/BTC
electricity charge: $0.10/kWh
difficulty: 44 billion
4400GH/s; 3000W; $332.14/month gross; $216.00/month electricity cost; $116.14/month profit
4000GH/s; 2320W; $301.94/month gross; $167.04/month electricity cost; $134.90/month profit
3350GH/s; 1760W; $252.88/month gross; $126.72/month electricity cost; $126.16/month profit
2870GH/s; 1392W; $216.64/month gross; $100.22/month electricity cost; $116.42/month profit
2590GH/s; 1232W; $195.51/month gross; $88.70/month electricity cost; $106.80/month profit

So if you happen to have an SP30 and you are being charged $0.10/kWh, it should be clear that you are best off underclocking it to around 4000GH/s. Your monthly electricity charge will be $167.04 on an income of $301.94, netting you a monthly profit of $134.90 per month. That's about the best you can do under those conditions with an SP30.

Let's say you buy 4 SP30's and run them at stock. That is, 4400GH/s using 3000W each (12000W). You can expect each one to net you $116.14 monthly; so for all 4 you will earn $464.56 per month. 4 SP30's will cost you roughly 4x $2000 or $8000. So (assuming BTC value stays the same and difficulty remains the same) it will take you $8000/$464.56 or 17.2 months to recover your investment. Not particularly good.

Now let's say you buy 5 SP30's and underclock them to 4000GH using 2320W each (11600W ... very close to the 12000W above). You can expect each one to net you $134.90 monthly; so for all 5 you will earn $674.50 per month. Now, 5 SP30's will cost you 5x $2000 or $10000. So it will take you $10000/$674.50 or 14.8 months to recover your investment. This is better than what the 4 stock SP30's can do.

So for this example, with the assumptions and costs as above, 5 underclocked SP30's will recover their $10,000 cost sooner than 4 stock SP30's can recover their $8000 cost. In other words: you are better off underclocking in this scenario. I haven't run the numbers for an SP20; I'll leave that to you. But it seems you've already run the analysis.

Most folks will have an electricity rate higher than $0.10/kWh so their net monthly profits will be lower, their recovery time will be longer, and the "sweet spot" will be an even more aggressive underclock.

I see that DiCE1904 has provided a handy table of SP20 values. Smiley


Nice calculation, if there is also a variable of electricity cost, then it will make a contour map to show the sweet spot of the voltage settings under different electricity charge

And, another variable is the amount of mined bitcoins that is being sold immediately. Pro-bitcoin miners never sell more than 10% of mined coins per year, but pro-fiat-money miners might sell majority of their coins right away
2210  Economy / Economics / Re: Why does anyone pay attention to people that study "economics"? on: January 21, 2015, 05:41:47 AM

Economy is irrelevant if money supply can be manipulated. Money drives economy, not the other way around. Because people have an illusion that money's value is constant, it is this illusion give banks power to direct the economy as they wish

Imagine such a scenario: As soon as every merchant heard that FED is going to increase the money supply by 4 fold, they raise the price of everything by 4 times, then QE will not give economy any help at all, or even worse, destroy the USD

The fact that this scenario did not happen is just because people's illusion that fiat money have a constant value, nothing else

The thing is that that illusion only lasts for a relatively small time lapse.  In the mean time, those profiting from the freshly printed money can reap in a lot of seigniorage, because they have more money and the prices didn't increase yet.  While those at the end of the line will suffer and pay all that seigniorage when prices inevitably will start to rise, because of offer and demand.

If a car costs $ 30 000.- and people now have so much cash that they can afford to buy so many cars that the salesman cannot even provide them as the production doesn't follow, he'll finish by rising the prices (and so will the competition).  So nobody is stronger than the market, and in the longer run, printing money will increase prices.  Unavoidably.  Unless that money flees into specific assets where a bubble is blown (that's in fact nothing else but inflation, but concentrated on a few assets instead of on the whole of economy).


The fresh printed money are all backed by assets, they have valuables backing them, and the banks get those money will use them carefully to not trigger inflation, they inject them into something that is not in CPI

If you already have a house and a nice car, and suddenly your salary doubled, would you buy another car just for fun? Same, you won't eat double amount of food because your income doubled, many demand have little elasticity, once it is filled, the extra demand is very weak

2211  Economy / Economics / Re: Why does anyone pay attention to people that study "economics"? on: January 21, 2015, 12:33:30 AM
A 2002 International Monetary Fund study looked at "consensus forecasts" (the forecasts of large groups of economists) that were made in advance of 60 different national recessions in the 1990s: in 97% of the cases the economists did not predict the contraction a year in advance. On those rare occasions when economists did successfully predict recessions, they significantly underestimated their severity.[167]

Why should they pay attention to them? There are mostly manipulators.

Exactly.

Economy is irrelevant if money supply can be manipulated. Money drives economy, not the other way around. Because people have an illusion that money's value is constant, it is this illusion give banks power to direct the economy as they wish

Imagine such a scenario: As soon as every merchant heard that FED is going to increase the money supply by 4 fold, they raise the price of everything by 4 times, then QE will not give economy any help at all, or even worse, destroy the USD

The fact that this scenario did not happen is just because people's illusion that fiat money have a constant value, nothing else

For normal commodity, more supply means lower value. But more money will not affect each dollar's value, since this can be observed by  each individual (especially poor people)

It is interesting to read the "Real bills doctrine" first invented by John Law, it indicated that the money's value is coming from trust, has nothing to do with supply and demand, you can supply as much money as you want if that trust is intact, and then more money means more wealth

2212  Economy / Economics / Re: Can it change the scenario? on: January 20, 2015, 05:24:58 PM
After house, government debt, petroleum, banks are finding the next bubble candidate
2213  Economy / Speculation / Re: what will be botton of btc ? on: January 20, 2015, 05:21:03 PM
0 but that day is still far away  Grin
2214  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: ASICMiner BE300S Samples Arrived, <0.2W/G Achieved at Board Level on: January 20, 2015, 11:26:18 AM
That only works in a closed industry with you having the only source of cash. There are at least 5 mining companies in the industry with heavy heavy VC investment and most of those can raise more if required. You can't empty a sink if the tap is still running.

Maybe banks already commanded more than 50% of hash power, just we don't know. Most of the actors in bitcoin mining space are short sighted and they only want to make some fiat profit, so banks will take it over easily

One benefit of the bitcoin is that it can solve banks headache of endless monetary expansion: Unlike house/national debt, bitcoin can absorb any scale of fiat money inflow without a total crash, thus the bubble of bitcoin will always become bigger after each downturn, and banks need such endless bubble to make themselves rich

However, if bitcoin is going to replace the fiat money as major payment medium, then fiat money will have no use, that will not be welcomed by banks
2215  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When there is a liquidity crisis, how could bitcoin help? on: January 20, 2015, 10:44:21 AM

For example, the economy is lacking 3.6 billion dollars per day, if one bitcoin worth 1 million dollar, you just need 3600 new coins to make it working

The miners are not necessarily going to sell all the bitcoin they mine as soon as their coins mature.

There is no reason why a central bank could not print additional fiat money at a rate that would solve a liquidity crisis in a similar way that it has done over the past several years.

They can, but for every dollar they issue, they must have something valuable to back it. Now they have already bought everything they can buy: House, National debt, Gold, Oil... is there anything else valuable they can use as a collateral to issue money? Maybe only bitcoin

And, miners don't sell more than half of the coins, but you should also include the small amount of cash out from previous investors, so the net result should be several thousand coins per day, see my signature for a mathematical model
2216  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When there is a liquidity crisis, how could bitcoin help? on: January 20, 2015, 10:38:45 AM
I doubt if this change would happen quickly. It has to be a gradual process, with more and more people accepting Bitcoin.

Technically, even if the dollar appreciates quickly (i.e. if there is deflation), it could solve the liquidity crisis.  Smiley

It is not that easy, because the liquidity crisis will directly impact banks. Normally banks have only a little bit money in their account, most of the money are just checkbook numbers in their database (just like your bitcoin in MTGOX, the coins are gone long time ago, but your bitcoin in their database are still there and can be traded)

So, no amount of deflation can help with that, banks will just become insolvent and all the client deposit destroyed

And you are right, the change for bitcoin will not come in one day, but slowly. The merchants who accept bitcoin will just direct use it to order products from other merchants when it is widely accepted as a payment medium. Then the sell pressure on exchanges will reduce and eventually those merchants become the biggest support for bitcoin's value

2217  Economy / Economics / Does SNB see something that we don't know? on: January 20, 2015, 07:44:26 AM
SNB surprisingly removed the currency peg with Euro without any formal information or indication. This is a very strange move that never happened in major developed countries. It seems that they have totally lost control of their pace and don't care about causing shocks in financial markets. It might be a decision made in panic, since it is nothing comparing with something very gigantic that is approaching

This chart shows that the current fiat money system works totally different since 2008



Base money supply increased by 8 fold without any significant increase in GDP.  This scale of money supply used to be in M1 (which is only checkbook numbers in banks database. e.g. virtual wealth by just count the same money multiple times), but now it is in M0, with a large amount of debt backing. How could you pay back 8x more debt without your income increase by 8x?

Maybe they are already seeing the total collapse of the debt bubble and want to quit the money printing game first
2218  Economy / Economics / Re: Swiss franc massive rally on: January 20, 2015, 07:30:09 AM


The number of base money has increased 8X since 2008, I guess that SNB dare not to scale it up any more, they might forecasting a total collapse of the whole euro system, thus evaded it without even make a claim
2219  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Review] Spondoolies SP20 review - A Green miner with a Loud fan on: January 20, 2015, 05:24:40 AM
Just received a couple of Gentle Typhoon AP-31 (5400RPM) for testing, this is a high-air-flow fan for 120x25 size, it performs almost identical to Delta AFC1212DE at 20% speed

 

I've got the 4250rpm version on my SP20 for a few weeks now. Also tried the Scythe Kaze Ultra, which works quite well, but is also hard to find.

Also from the same range the scythe kaze jyuni 1900rpm I've also tried, at 110CFM

None let you run at the same temps as the stock fan, all are significantly quieter even at full speed. With a slight underclock they are fine.

I got Scythe and would like to try. How did you connect it-to internal connector or to PSU through adapter? Thanks
i don't think that it has PWM anyway, so it does not matter, but Scythe is just 46dB (3000rpm, 133 CFM). Surely, it beats the SP20 stock fan by being quieter.
i am running SP20 at ~650W/1200GH anyway, so less sound would be great.

Since the stock fan uses a special connector, you have to run your fan with dedicated power supply outside of the box, thus can not utilize the auto-fan feature of the latest firmware. You either run it at full speed or use a voltage regulator to control the speed (regulator will overheat under high load, cool it with exhaust fan)

2220  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Unofficial Spondoolies SP20 thread on: January 20, 2015, 05:20:21 AM
The stock fan is very noisy, any 7 blade delta fan is better. If they could just change the fan connector to standard PC PWM socket, it will be much easier to mod

The metal stand below the fan can be removed, it contact directly with the fan and amplify its noise
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