Its beauty and the beast then because I still remember the horror of 86 when a handball goal was allowed through purely because the angle the referee saw the goal scored at meant he thought it was just fine.   The whole world knew one team cheated to get that win and yet it proceeded, whats a beauty to some has another side that must be looked at.   I think the really serious decisions appreciate some wider review so it doesnt become distortable by lack of information.

The main deal with a bear market that lasts this long is durability, don't get focused on the price for November or December, be sure to last the course for whole years if you can at all.  If people can stay interested and involved over the years they'll do far better, none of us can say when the bottom is now or next Feb or we take the entirety of next year before the gloom lifts.  Its really a test of patience, I can see a second leg to the economic fall out so I don't know if that will also play out in crypto or not tbh.

Its a balance of optimism beyond the current horizon and also not accounting for the possible depreciation of currency overall and possibly the Dollar especially.  If we had a change from the current massive focus on dollar reserve even to a more balanced accounting for global usage outside of the west it'd be an epic change.  Generational change, tectonic movement in the world trade balance and its possible within our time right now but whose to say when really.
  Cathy is willing to pick the top estimate price and it makes for a great headline, I dont mind her discussion but I dont currently rate her as anything significant certainly she failed to hedge the pullback which (active) funds in theory would do if possible.


I feel obliged to post this chart as a resource because its a good idea to exclude the whole politics and interference in value from government that comes via pricing in purely one nations currency when obviously BTC is worldwide and its value has to be from that expanding dynamic.  So I think gold should be a more consistent valuation for going forward 8 years in estimation

So long as the odds are showing the favorites and we got a history of surprising underdog wins or draws then its worth a bet on that basis.   Maybe cash out early or gamble on that possibility to hedge mid game strength that was not expected to occur.

Fixed costs vs a lower value crypto would be the main issue I imagine being a problem for primarily the smaller newer sites because some costs will be in FIAT currencies and not an adjustable cost.   Otherwise the main burden of a lower value to BTC or most crypto used is borne by the players themselves but also the gain in any recovery to value of deposits held.   I never took stable coins as working out long term personally, thats another risk to add on I dont really prefer.  Just dont store more then you need near term is my preferred stance.

The funny thing is I recently was reading a big News org website, might have been CNN or similar but a massive mainstream place front page news I always scan the popular stories to catch general sentiment and they went through the details of somebody caught laundering stolen exchange funds.   It did reference this forum because the person caught posted here and on reddit also; both those places can be relevant when we're talking in terms of billions then it starts be an issue the whole of society might reference somewhere fairly specific even here. 
  In fact this forum is significant and associated with the beginnings of Bitcoin probably forever, I agree most of the population might not realize that but it is the case its relevant for any discussion for crypto historically and probably going forward also.

Its a culture clash of course, some respect for a country which is not your own is needed.   You are correct really, alot of the western press expect the entire world to think exactly as they do and that attitude has always been there to some extent.  Its a lack of thought rather then any deliberate policy, hosting the world cup itself is probably some attempt to break down these barriers at least partly and show people are more similar then would be expected even with the differences in society that will remain before and after the world cup.

Not sure why UK and not Europe, USA is the largest trading partner for UK but surely ECB puts out easy money also across the EU.   Certainly the EURO seems to reflect constant new money via all the bond programs, all 3 central banks are in theory tighter in policy this year.   All have failed to retract QE as the program requires a return to normality after any exceptional program, ultimately we all know the currency will permanently lose value for this kind of support given.
   Why is he so interested in the ease of not repaying the money because thats not getting rich its going broke and leaving behind your debts, which sounds very close to illegal activity really when stated in this context of 'success'.  One person I read about recently took covid funds to support business and sent it to Syria for the purchase of arms explosives to be used in cities against that government etc.   people will always get some wild ideas under easy money policies unfortunately.

Think I'll go with Faze in this game vs NiP.   They seem to be playing a bit more dynamic, working together though the scores are even right now.   Its been very close series,  NiP have nearly won this 2-0 but Faze do have the greater percentage of map wins on Mirage

I just saw a prediction which I'm inclined to agree with for the markets in general which is strength or cessation to selling to see out 2022, a relief rally if you like; however, in 2023 thats when you need to be on guard again.   A second attempt can be more surprising then the first sell and throw people off, it can be that the price moves with larger amplitude for larger appearance in negative price but with less volume because of an imbalance between buyers and sellers.   If that occurs at the tail end it will finally become bullish imo

Very often all these holidays at the tail end of the year, despite it not being a universal thing around the world.  Not every country is the same religion culture etc. obviously massive variance should be there but all the same because of these holidays being lumped together in some markets it causes a kind of Christmas peace to the ongoing trench warfare in the battle for markets between sellers and buyers, but dont assume its the end of the negatives even if we do see that.

There was no good reason or requirement to send off the Wales goal keeper for contact, he was outside the box but there was nothing malicious in that challenge.   Maybe its a set rule and the referee has to immediately give a red card for those situations but Im not familiar with that and it just appears biased to me to remove one of their most vital players; this determined the result and overtime goals I think.


Price is subdued to say the least, in theory its above the weekly average and above support but from experience this is yet to get close to any positive build or set stage for action next week.  Its really light neutral sideways drift hard to judge, neutral to negative is my ongoing general conclusion.   We can rise but it has do something like get beyond 20k and be consistent in a gain to really alter my medium term view.    So end of November I expect little, personally I dont believe we lose the 16k area for this near term consideration and wider markets are mostly positive in speculation I believe which helps.

Very impressive, could be highly efficent if its fast, safe and easy to do.   The ideal usage of batteries is not 100% to 0% but to use the middle section of recharging it, doing so will increase the battery life and be high utility and return for such an enterprise.   Happy to here if they are improving efficiency in this way, I did not think HGV and big heavy goods would a problem solved near term despite the Tesla promises many truckers have pointed out the possible losses to drivers if refueling is awkward in any way.

No price causes any toast condition imo because not every price is valid or equal in volume.    There is no need to expect significance at every price level, its quite correct to say some prices are not valid despite being traded between two parties openly and honestly the wider market did not have to respect that level.  It can occur on a high price and be some warning to sell in that peak prices are highly unstable and also the very lowest prices can be born out of fear and rapid trading that is not considered by the entire global market.  
  BTC is quite unusual in that its not focused entirely in any city, state or nation not even a hemisphere; we need an entire globe turn in a daily bar to really say this is a valid price seen and available to be traded by all.   Even then I class weekend and weekday prices differently, alot more confirmation is required and, in the gaps, erratic prices can occur.   Thats why my estimates for boundaries or the range of BTC possible in trades might appear more negative or extreme then others as Im just reflecting this price volatility that comes with decentralization.

Monetary velocity and anti fraud measures, I suppose it could be a positive but it cant alter the economy only the strict circulation of paper.  It should be the case that most value in an economy in this day and age is via balance sheet transfer never being printed or needing paper transfer.  Nigeria is a member of OPEC they certainly have access to the world economy and concentrating in expanding their national economy to be inclusive of all levels of society will be accumaltive   If people are able to avoid paper its probably the greatest positive for raising monetary velocity and increasing the efficiency of pricing in the economy, reducing simply the time to count money physically could represent value and time saved, etc.

I think whats happening is an equalization, in many professional sports the teams are alot closer then people realize.  In an unfamiliar slightly hostile situation like this with elevated heat even for the normal weather the players and teams are all alot closer.   Wales lost to Iran today but it was only in overtime that the game moved to that result, really it was closer then it appears and thats my general take for alot of these games forthcoming as well.  Possibly there will be some acclimatization also.   The nations of UK must now face each, predictably England are going to be massively favored and maybe a score difference is the best bet.

The mtGox issue was just excess liquidity, that'd be a spike down and back up again not so negative especially longer term.   The wider issue now and maybe every low for BTC is confidence and the genuine backbone belief to the usage not just now but ever, future build in its basic utility and also growth towards greater populations of use.

Always this market will be tested, at the very start of Bitcoin despite some very clever invention and innovation people said no matter what it had to rip itself apart.   They weren't all being negative specifically but because its an arguable point on every economic system thats ever tried to work, from feathers and shells exchanged in ancient times to the modern treasury bill system.   All of it is a ticking time bomb because theres always problems, greed is a constant not a question and corruption, theft everything is there waiting to destroy honest exchange so why not Bitcoin also to fail;  BTC must end as all value systems are ultimately self-destruction that is the reasoning this year, always tbh.   Now we're on lows, these are the questions is it real or a dream to wake from.


To me its way to late to state that argument, calling a bear out when we were 40k was the time really.  Clever if you can see a negative cycle reoccurring and get ahead of it.  Now really I think optimism is the idea to formulate and when to be the optimist.   Going out in the middle of a thunderstorm in shorts would be bad timing but its not unknown for sunshine after the rain, in fact its entirely reasonable to start an estimate ahead of time.
  The bottom price is less important then timing and I dont see BTC itself is altered by the failures of those who had used it, thats just the normal cycle and we're paired with a horrible swing in Dollar that makes entire countries and enterprise systems suffer in their exchange rate some of the fall in BTC is external imo but we also gained some similarly from that cycle also so avoid over focusing imo.



Bigger then the war, is the inflation problem with instability in currencies.  Neither is any positive of course.

I wasnt sure on the BTC price bet because what has happened now its broken range.     This whole area of roughly the teen prices or very broadly 10k to 20 is light traffic, low volume and so at some point high volatility larger price rises and upsets to expectations imo will become normal action.    We were really confined in our price action previously, very boring but ultimately it doesnt last.
   Ironically if BTC never really changed price it'd become a premium type operation for its stability sadly we know the calm is the illusion and the storm is the norm.


Good for the site and collectively as a group the 1k ticket crowd equal upto biggest swag bettors.   I forget but for probability calc you group the similar instances together so everyone with 1k tickets is comparable and then one within the group can be the winner.   I always have 1k or maybe 20k if Im lucky that week to win them elsewhere, sadly I rarely am one of the million ticket 'crowd'  

Its true of China and alot of westernized countries that they become top heavy.  Its deceptively not important to the majority of people but it matters if you ever intend to retire.  Despite all your savings, a person who stops working is relying on a working economy of the young people of that nation to maintain a countries ability to buy goods from abroad and produce its own.  Especially if you own currency or bonds this is your future as a retired person but it applies to the whole of society, very few people can say they are fine no matter what; all of us import in goods for convivence and time.
  Ultimately without working young people the price to buy pre made goods will rise, if you arent doing it yourself you rely on others to do it so maybe you own it but a country becomes insecure.   Japan is quite advanced in this regard as a study of advanced average age in a population.
 
  China enforced 1 child policy for decades, this means the country has a declining working population.  Despite having alot of people, everyday China is becoming less competitive and Vietnam can undercut them today and in future many nations which leaves technology perhaps as a savior only maybe.

The point is that Dollar changes value each year so saying 8 years forward means  it could even happen while still being unlikely because the Dollar can lose so much value in that time that it barely qualifies as an equal consideration to now.
   I think its mostly just a talking point for the sake of free publicity and advertising, not everyone has to believe just enough to join so that you arent forced to liquidate the fund and can pay the bills via fees.  Its not a difficult prediction to say Dollar has problems retaining its value over time and BTC can grow exponentially.

Couldnt say immediately but we do have recent positive reaction in price action which should be noted and followed for its progress.   If price remains above a weekly average, no matter where it has been or the general negative sentiment, retaining that momentum should be considered positive trending.



So target upside would be about 16.5k and confirming above there has me looking positive going forward